Political Posts

[Dinar]

38 minutes ago, Buckeye said:

I’m interested to know if any of the tariff experts on this thread have any actual experience with tariffs? Is anyone here manufacturing anything in the US? If so, I’d love to hear your thoughts. 

 

I currently own a small manufacturing company that makes laboratory equipment in the good ol USA. Everything is machined in Pennsylvania by a second generation machine shop…can’t get more MAGA than that!

 

Today I was talking to my machinist about an upcoming order and he seemed a little distraught.  Apparently the 4” OD 316 Stainless steel tube that we’ve buying for the past 3 years or so for about $330 a foot now costs $550 a foot.  Huh, that’s interesting. An increase of 66%.  So a 20’ section that used to cost us $6.5k  now runs about $11k. The other kicker is that what usually was fairly easy sourced on the east coast is now only available in Texas? I’m not looking forward to the cost to ship a 20’ section of tube from TX to PA. Ugh. I guess I can keep my prices the same and eat the additional cost or I can raise my prices? 
 

I’m not here to complain, only to point out that things are getting a little weird out there for some manufacturers.  I can only imagine what all of the factories and other industries that rely on this steel may be feeling right now. 

 

People who definitively claim that tariffs don’t cause inflation are either are misinformed or dishonest. Maybe tariffs don’t directly cause inflation, but people’s reaction to tariffs, or people’s anticipation of tariffs may lead to some inflation. 
 

if this is what’s got to happen to “make us great again” I’m all for sacrificing  for the greater good.  But I’d feel better about the process if it seemed like there was some more thought put into the implementation.
 

 

Thank you for the post.  By the way, there was an article in the WSJ today mentioning this precise problem.  

[cubsfan]

3 minutes ago, Hektor said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/03/technology/eu-penalties-x-elon-musk.html

 

E.U. Prepares Major Penalties Against Elon Musk’s X

European regulators are considering fining X more than $1 billion, after weighing the risks of further antagonizing Mr. Musk and President Trump.

 

 

 

Of course, that's what authoritarians that are embarrassed by free speech do.

 

Free speech will just continue to die in Europe, just like conservative leadership.

 

IF they can't silence them, they will fine them, imprison them, bar them from political office, void their elections.

 

They learned their lesson well from the Biden administration.

 

Poor Europeans.

[mcliu]

42 minutes ago, lnofeisone said:

That's not how trade deficit works. If I have cash and go and buy things from the store, I have a trade deficit with the store. The problem you are describing, while related isn't the same. 

From a trade perspective, the fact that you have cash means you’re already running a trade surplus. Otherwise you wouldn’t have cash to spend. The other option is if you swap it for an asset.

 

Just think it through and you’ll see it.

[lnofeisone]

4 minutes ago, mcliu said:

From a trade perspective, the fact that you have cash means you’re already running a trade surplus. Otherwise you wouldn’t have cash to spend. The other option is if you swap it for an asset.

 

Just think it through and you’ll see it.

Again, that's not true. And it isn't how trade deficits work and for sure not whats being shared in this thread. In your book, me buying a house or tools on credit is a trade deficit. Think it through and you'll see it. 

[lnofeisone]

52 minutes ago, Buckeye said:

I’m interested to know if any of the tariff experts on this thread have any actual experience with tariffs? Is anyone here manufacturing anything in the US? If so, I’d love to hear your thoughts. 

 

I currently own a small manufacturing company that makes laboratory equipment in the good ol USA. Everything is machined in Pennsylvania by a second generation machine shop…can’t get more MAGA than that!

 

Today I was talking to my machinist about an upcoming order and he seemed a little distraught.  Apparently the 4” OD 316 Stainless steel tube that we’ve buying for the past 3 years or so for about $330 a foot now costs $550 a foot.  Huh, that’s interesting. An increase of 66%.  So a 20’ section that used to cost us $6.5k  now runs about $11k. The other kicker is that what usually was fairly easy sourced on the east coast is now only available in Texas? I’m not looking forward to the cost to ship a 20’ section of tube from TX to PA. Ugh. I guess I can keep my prices the same and eat the additional cost or I can raise my prices? 
 

I’m not here to complain, only to point out that things are getting a little weird out there for some manufacturers.  I can only imagine what all of the factories and other industries that rely on this steel may be feeling right now. 

 

People who definitively claim that tariffs don’t cause inflation are either are misinformed or dishonest. Maybe tariffs don’t directly cause inflation, but people’s reaction to tariffs, or people’s anticipation of tariffs may lead to some inflation. 
 

if this is what’s got to happen to “make us great again” I’m all for sacrificing  for the greater good.  But I’d feel better about the process if it seemed like there was some more thought put into the implementation.
 

 

Ans yet you have some on this thread claiming that price stability hasn't budged one iota. I stopped any business investments other than absolute necessary maintenance a month or so back. I was checking on prices and they are much higher across the board. We are in for some bumpy ride. Destination unknown. 

[mcliu]

11 minutes ago, lnofeisone said:

Again, that's not true. And it isn't how trade deficits work and for sure not whats being shared in this thread. In your book, me buying a house or tools on credit is a trade deficit. Think it through and you'll see it. 

Yeah you got it. Countries are buying on credit when they have a trade deficit! 

[lnofeisone]

8 minutes ago, mcliu said:

Yeah you got it. Countries are buying on credit when they have a trade deficit! 

I can't tell if you are trolling or really are not getting it. Either way, I gave you several examples. If you don't get it, you don't get it. 

[Eldad]

47 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

Blake, glad you're back.  I'm trying to think of all the horrible consequences of Trump's first term but can't seem to recall any.  

Besides shutting down the whole economy in response to Covid and ballooning the debt beyond repair as a result. 
 

If ever there was a time for an outside of the box leader, it would have been the guy that said screw Covid. If you are old stay home, otherwise we are doing the Swedish model. 
 

Also, now that apparently every intelligence agency in the world agrees it was a lab leak; wouldn’t achieving the ends of this tariff stuff be much easier if Trump put together a worldwide coalition to punish China economically for that terrible mistake they burdened the world with? 

[mcliu]

1 hour ago, Buckeye said:

I’m interested to know if any of the tariff experts on this thread have any actual experience with tariffs? Is anyone here manufacturing anything in the US? If so, I’d love to hear your thoughts. 

 

I currently own a small manufacturing company that makes laboratory equipment in the good ol USA. Everything is machined in Pennsylvania by a second generation machine shop…can’t get more MAGA than that!

 

Today I was talking to my machinist about an upcoming order and he seemed a little distraught.  Apparently the 4” OD 316 Stainless steel tube that we’ve buying for the past 3 years or so for about $330 a foot now costs $550 a foot.  Huh, that’s interesting. An increase of 66%.  So a 20’ section that used to cost us $6.5k  now runs about $11k. The other kicker is that what usually was fairly easy sourced on the east coast is now only available in Texas? I’m not looking forward to the cost to ship a 20’ section of tube from TX to PA. Ugh. I guess I can keep my prices the same and eat the additional cost or I can raise my prices? 
 

I’m not here to complain, only to point out that things are getting a little weird out there for some manufacturers.  I can only imagine what all of the factories and other industries that rely on this steel may be feeling right now. 

 

People who definitively claim that tariffs don’t cause inflation are either are misinformed or dishonest. Maybe tariffs don’t directly cause inflation, but people’s reaction to tariffs, or people’s anticipation of tariffs may lead to some inflation. 
 

if this is what’s got to happen to “make us great again” I’m all for sacrificing  for the greater good.  But I’d feel better about the process if it seemed like there was some more thought put into the implementation.

Thanks, that's really interesting. Definitely agree that this approach is chaotic and haphazard. It'll be quite tragic if despite all the economic damage, these tariffs fail to achieve re-industrializing just because of poor planning and execution.

 

I think with any tariff approach, higher prices is the end goal. The reason is that domestic manufacturers aren't competitive at global clearing prices.

 

By moving that clearing price higher, the idea is that domestic production increases, leading to more demand for workers and higher wages, which creates more demand, and so on.

[Gregmal]

So wait, are there really people out there whom think that if a tariff is put in place that makes goods more expensive that the Fed in response to this, should raise interest rates? Lmfao… like is this supposed to accomplish something? Enough rate hikes make the tariffs go away? Enough rate hikes and business owners will just say fuck it and run 501Cs? 

[Parsad]

1 hour ago, Buckeye said:

I’m interested to know if any of the tariff experts on this thread have any actual experience with tariffs? Is anyone here manufacturing anything in the US? If so, I’d love to hear your thoughts. 

 

I currently own a small manufacturing company that makes laboratory equipment in the good ol USA. Everything is machined in Pennsylvania by a second generation machine shop…can’t get more MAGA than that!

 

Today I was talking to my machinist about an upcoming order and he seemed a little distraught.  Apparently the 4” OD 316 Stainless steel tube that we’ve buying for the past 3 years or so for about $330 a foot now costs $550 a foot.  Huh, that’s interesting. An increase of 66%.  So a 20’ section that used to cost us $6.5k  now runs about $11k. The other kicker is that what usually was fairly easy sourced on the east coast is now only available in Texas? I’m not looking forward to the cost to ship a 20’ section of tube from TX to PA. Ugh. I guess I can keep my prices the same and eat the additional cost or I can raise my prices? 
 

I’m not here to complain, only to point out that things are getting a little weird out there for some manufacturers.  I can only imagine what all of the factories and other industries that rely on this steel may be feeling right now. 

 

People who definitively claim that tariffs don’t cause inflation are either are misinformed or dishonest. Maybe tariffs don’t directly cause inflation, but people’s reaction to tariffs, or people’s anticipation of tariffs may lead to some inflation. 
 

if this is what’s got to happen to “make us great again” I’m all for sacrificing  for the greater good.  But I’d feel better about the process if it seemed like there was some more thought put into the implementation.
 

 

 

Yes, Aja Therapeutics sells in the U.S. and Canada.  We manufacture in the U.S., so selling there isn't an issue.  All of our ingredients are sourced there as well.  But we do sell in Canada and it will get hit with tariffs.  We are in the midst of possibly opening a small lab in Canada, so we'll be able to manufacture there...but some of the ingredients can only be sourced in the U.S.  So, we will still take a hit!  Cheers!

[cubsfan]

Yeah, why not?

 

 

 

[Buckeye]

1 hour ago, Parsad said:

 

Yes, Aja Therapeutics sells in the U.S. and Canada.  We manufacture in the U.S., so selling there isn't an issue.  All of our ingredients are sourced there as well.  But we do sell in Canada and it will get hit with tariffs.  We are in the midst of possibly opening a small lab in Canada, so we'll be able to manufacture there...but some of the ingredients can only be sourced in the U.S.  So, we will still take a hit!  Cheers!

Hopefully any negative impacts will be short term and not too severe.  And very interesting to hear about the potential lab in Canada. MCGA! 

[Simba]

Couple things come to mind on tariffs which I have not followed - but certainly feel compelled to due to being long stocks. 

 

1. How long could tariffs last? If it’s only 4 years - do they actually matter significantly on valuations ? 

 

2. The tariffs appear completely arbitrarily - does anyone actually believe these will be implemented ? 
 

3. How much of the tariffs is priced in at this point in the markets? Are we 10%, 25%, 50%, 99% of the way there? 
 

4. Does anyone actually believe that Buy America won’t prevail in the next 5-10 years? 
 

As buffet once said “when it rains gold, pull out the bucket” - I wonder … 

Edited April 4, 2025 by Simba

[Xerxes]

 

 

[Xerxes]

 

I want to meet the intern that did this for the White House  

Edited April 4, 2025 by Xerxes

[Gregmal]

2020-21 everyone was a virologist

 

2022 everyones an inflation expert

 

2023 everyones a banking expert

 

2024 everyone finally just shut the fuck up

 

2025 everyone’s an expert on tariffs, a mind reader and also smarter than everyone in the WH

 

In pretty much all these instances you wanted to fade the experts and all their bullshit. 
 

[Spekulatius]

3 hours ago, Buckeye said:

I’m interested to know if any of the tariff experts on this thread have any actual experience with tariffs? Is anyone here manufacturing anything in the US? If so, I’d love to hear your thoughts. 

 

I currently own a small manufacturing company that makes laboratory equipment in the good ol USA. Everything is machined in Pennsylvania by a second generation machine shop…can’t get more MAGA than that!

 

Today I was talking to my machinist about an upcoming order and he seemed a little distraught.  Apparently the 4” OD 316 Stainless steel tube that we’ve buying for the past 3 years or so for about $330 a foot now costs $550 a foot.  Huh, that’s interesting. An increase of 66%.  So a 20’ section that used to cost us $6.5k  now runs about $11k. The other kicker is that what usually was fairly easy sourced on the east coast is now only available in Texas? I’m not looking forward to the cost to ship a 20’ section of tube from TX to PA. Ugh. I guess I can keep my prices the same and eat the additional cost or I can raise my prices? 
 

I’m not here to complain, only to point out that things are getting a little weird out there for some manufacturers.  I can only imagine what all of the factories and other industries that rely on this steel may be feeling right now. 

 

People who definitively claim that tariffs don’t cause inflation are either are misinformed or dishonest. Maybe tariffs don’t directly cause inflation, but people’s reaction to tariffs, or people’s anticipation of tariffs may lead to some inflation. 
 

if this is what’s got to happen to “make us great again” I’m all for sacrificing  for the greater good.  But I’d feel better about the process if it seemed like there was some more thought put into the implementation.
 

 

I believe the tariffs or the reaction to tariffs cause s9me weird feeder snd even shortages. For example some copper qualities are hard to get. I think folks have been hoarding  Copper front run tariffs. The US does not have much high grade copper resource so copper will be imported no matter what . The same is probably happening with some steel qualities, I think.

 

People may be hoarding them because  they now it will get expensive. A steel fabricator I follow said in the CC that the moment Trump announced the tariff, their input costs went up by ~20% which obviously means front running. I think this will settle in but prices most likely remain at higher levels.

[Spekulatius]

I think the tariffs may not be the endgame,  it they aren’t a sole bargaining chip either. Tr up wants nothing less than to boost aus manufacturing and for that he need to get the USD exchange rates down. It’s basically rewriting the economic world order which is based on Brettln Wood and then modified under Nixon when he ditched the convertibility of the USD into Gold in 1971.

 

It caused a decade of economic upheaval and rising inflation rate and maybe we will see something similar playing out now. Nixon also made the USD weaker back then.

I think we will also see a time f economic unravel with supply and trade being rerouted  snd what Trump is doing , is of similar significance. I don’t have any idea how it plays out, but it means USD devaluation, which almost certainly means higher inflation which may be the price to pay to become more self sufficient (in manufacturing  and otherwise).

 

It sounds to me like the pain is long term. I think it will also mean a new trade agreement with some nations which may just be the Mar de Largo accord or something similar.

[dwy000]

45 minutes ago, Simba said:

Couple things come to mind on tariffs which I have not followed - but certainly feel compelled to due to being long stocks. 

 

1. How long could tariffs last? If it’s only 4 years - do they actually matter significantly on valuations ? 

 

2. The tariffs appear completely arbitrarily - does anyone actually believe these will be implemented ? 
 

3. How much of the tariffs is priced in at this point in the markets? Are we 10%, 25%, 50%, 99% of the way there? 
 

4. Does anyone actually believe that Buy America won’t prevail in the next 5-10 years? 
 

As buffet once said “when it rains gold, pull out the bucket” - I wonder … 

1.  Could be 4 years.  Could be 4 months. Could change later tonight.  Yes, it matters for valuations because you don't know how your customers are going to react.  Market hates uncertainty more than firm negatives. 

 

2. Yes.  They literally have started (cars) and the rest come in on Apr 9th.  Just because the calculations seem arbitrary doesn't mean they don't apply.

 

3.  That's tough to say. Also doesn't factor in international reaction which is still unknown

 

4.  Of course not.  Buy American what?  We don't make much anymore because it's too expensive. And.nobodys rebuilding manufacturing capacity based on tariffs that could be gone soon (see question 1)

[dwy000]

1 minute ago, Spekulatius said:

I think the tariffs may not be the endgame,  it they aren’t a sole bargaining chip either. Tr up wants nothing less than to boost aus manufacturing and for that he need to get the USD exchange rates down. It’s basically rewriting the economic world order which is based on Brettln Wood and then modified under Nixon when he ditched the convertibility of the USD into Gold in 1971.

 

It caused a decade of economic upheaval and rising inflation rate and maybe we will see something similar playing out now. Nixon also made the USD weaker back then.

I think we will also see a time f economic unravel with supply and trade being rerouted  snd what Trump is doing , is of similar significance. I don’t have any idea how it plays out, but it means USD devaluation, which almost certainly means higher inflation which may be the price to pay to become more self sufficient (in manufacturing  and otherwise).

 

It sounds to me like the pain is long term. I think it will also mean a new trade agreement with some nations which may just be the Mar de Largo accord or something similar.

I think you're giving way too much credit to secondary and tertiary thinking.  Trump is just reactionary revenge.  Just look at how the numbers were calculated and you get some sense for the amount of thought that's gone into it. There's no strategy.  There's no master plan.  There's no 3D chess or even checkers.  Hes just eating the pieces because he think it makes him look powerful. 

[Buckeye]

12 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

I believe the tariffs or the reaction to tariffs cause s9me weird feeder snd even shortages. For example some copper qualities are hard to get. I think folks have been hoarding  Copper front run tariffs. The US does not have much high grade copper resource so copper will be imported no matter what . The same is probably happening with some steel qualities, I think.

 

People may be hoarding them because  they now it will get expensive. A steel fabricator I follow said in the CC that the moment Trump announced the tariff, their input costs went up by ~20% which obviously means front running. I think this will settle in but prices most likely remain at higher levels.

For sure some of this front running is/has been happening. So maybe it’s a one time gap up and then we stabilize? Or maybe prices come back a little once some of the dust settles? Will certainly be interesting to see. At least now that we’re finally into it, any de-escalation of the tariffs would be celebrated as a huge win by the markets, so that’s one potential positive.

Edited April 4, 2025 by Buckeye

[Spekulatius]

27 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

2020-21 everyone was a virologist

 

2022 everyones an inflation expert

 

2023 everyones a banking expert

 

2024 everyone finally just shut the fuck up

 

2025 everyone’s an expert on tariffs, a mind reader and also smarter than everyone in the WH

 

In pretty much all these instances you wanted to fade the experts and all their bullshit. 
 

In all these cases, stocks went down much more than people predicted. It pays to panic early.

[Gregmal]

8 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

In all these cases, stocks went down much more than people predicted. It pays to panic early.

I’m still waiting for SPY 3000. Think we were even told 2800. Recall that’s the target Powell “had in his head”? It was all as easy as “follow the Fed”….

Edited April 4, 2025 by Gregmal

[Mephistopheles]

Yes they should be more like Trump/Musk. Free speech only with speech you like, and jail the offenders when you don’t like it!