John Hjorth Posted January 22, 2025 Posted January 22, 2025 BBC - Iplayer [September 4th 2024] : History - The Zelensky Story - - - o 0 o - - - To me personally, this series of 3 parts so far, is just awesome. I really can't help to like and admire this man. In the interview he is asked about how how and what he thinks about his main advesary in Moscow. Christ, that gave me the creeps, and it seems soo right! As far as I can see, it seems like the BBC Iplayer unfortunately only works in the UK. I got aware of existence of the series by part two being transmitted on Danish TV Channel DR1 this morning with Danish text translation overlay, and I spend the rest of the morning untill about noon gobbling all three parts by streaming them.
Dalal.Holdings Posted January 22, 2025 Posted January 22, 2025 On 1/10/2025 at 9:31 PM, Spekulatius said: It’s probably another example of Biden half-assery: doing just enough to not lose but not enough to win. Will be interesting to see if Trump will do better. To deal with Putin, you must be willing to back up your position and bring out the big stick if need to. Sanction Russia until kingdom come and give an Ukraine weapons to destroy their energy infrastructure which finance the war will slowly destroy Russias economy to finance the war. Time is not on the Russian side. Note that Ukraine just restarted their Kursk offensive. No doubt it was partly done to sent a signal to Washington https://www.axios.com/2025/01/22/trump-tariffs-russia-end-ukraine-war Quote Trump threatens tariffs if Russia doesn't end Ukraine war Man this really damages all the dingbat theories that Trump is Putin’s puppet…
Gregmal Posted January 22, 2025 Posted January 22, 2025 And if the "war" does end, make sure to count how many "Trump wasnt really responsible for fixing this" mea culpas we get from the usual suspects.
Spekulatius Posted January 22, 2025 Posted January 22, 2025 Tariffs won’t threaten Russia, since we basically don’t trade with them any more. How is that supposed to hurt them? Ukraine needs more guns, lots of guns:
Sweet Posted January 23, 2025 Posted January 23, 2025 2 hours ago, Spekulatius said: Tariffs won’t threaten Russia, since we basically don’t trade with them any more. How is that supposed to hurt them? Ukraine needs more guns, lots of guns: I hoping this is an opening flex, and there is more to come… because if this ends the war on ‘day one’ I’d be shocked.
cubsfan Posted January 23, 2025 Posted January 23, 2025 Perhaps sanctions will not work on Russia - not really sure Trump will likely arm Ukraine to the teeth if he can't reasonably negotiate with Putin. I like the odds of him bringing this conflict to an end - but it will be really tough. Putin can claim a win if he keeps a big part of his gains. Zelensky can claim a win by not having everyone in Ukraine killed, as is happening now. Clearly, Putin has the upper hand at this point. Ugly, ugly, ugly.
Spekulatius Posted January 23, 2025 Posted January 23, 2025 (edited) 19 minutes ago, cubsfan said: Perhaps sanctions will not work on Russia - not really sure Trump will likely arm Ukraine to the teeth if he can't reasonably negotiate with Putin. I like the odds of him bringing this conflict to an end - but it will be really tough. Putin can claim a win if he keeps a big part of his gains. Zelensky can claim a win by not having everyone in Ukraine killed, as is happening now. Clearly, Putin has the upper hand at this point. Ugly, ugly, ugly. Sanctions work as they make Russia economically worse over time. Any country that is under severe long term sanctions has been slowly train wrecked - Iran, Venezuela, North Korea, Cuba. It’s certainly helps that they are run by nutcases a well. Russia is bigger so it will take longer but they are inevitably heading down the same path. Without an economy, a country can’t wage war any more so slowly but surely, Russias ability will be flushing itself down the toilet. Tariffs against Russia is just plain nonsense at this point , what is Trump even thinking? Trade with Russia is close to zero and 100% on zero is till zero. He is got to do better than that. Edited January 23, 2025 by Spekulatius
Pelagic Posted January 23, 2025 Posted January 23, 2025 I suspect the reference to tariffs might be to third party nations like India and China that trade with Russia in violation of sanctions. Direct tariffs on Russia are fairly meaningless. I also wonder how well informed Trump is on the seized Russian assets and utilizing them as a war chest to provide for Ukraine's defense and rebuilding, it's not an issue he's talked about to my knowledge but something that should have bipartisan support to utilize at this point.
Spekulatius Posted January 23, 2025 Posted January 23, 2025 (edited) 13 minutes ago, Pelagic said: I suspect the reference to tariffs might be to third party nations like India and China that trade with Russia in violation of sanctions. Direct tariffs on Russia are fairly meaningless. I also wonder how well informed Trump is on the seized Russian assets and utilizing them as a war chest to provide for Ukraine's defense and rebuilding, it's not an issue he's talked about to my knowledge but something that should have bipartisan support to utilize at this point. He will have a hard time to get these countries to use tariffs because they would essentially put money from one pocket to the other - they are buying mostly oil. This can’t be about tariffs , it has to be about sanctions, where we make it more difficult for rh Russians to sell their oil. They still can do it somehow but would sell it way cheaper at huge discount which means less money to run the war. In the end, it’s all about money. If Trump can force China to trade less with Russia than that’s great, but I don’t think it would be easy to make them buckle. Using the Russian assets against them would be a gutsy move and again something that Biden didn’t do in his half assed ways. Those funds could go a long way for an Ukraine to finance the war against Russia. You can’t win a war don’t half assed moves against a determined adversary like Putin. Any time he is escalating like he does with involving North Korea, you need to be escalating too. Edited January 23, 2025 by Spekulatius
cubsfan Posted January 23, 2025 Posted January 23, 2025 (edited) 24 minutes ago, Spekulatius said: Sanctions work as they make Russia economically worse over time. Any country that is under severe long term sanctions has been slowly train wrecked - Iran, Venezuela, North Korea, Cuba. It’s certainly helps that they are run by nutcases a well. Russia is bigger so it will take longer but they are inevitably heading down the same path. Without an economy, a country can’t wage war any more so slowly but surely, Russias ability will be flushing itself down the toilet. Tariffs against Russia is just plain nonsense at this point , what is Trump even thinking? Trade with Russia is close to zero and 100% on zero is till zero. He is got to do better than that. I think you can say we agree for once. And when you do say tariffs, I include sanctions as a given - whether direct to Russia or indirectly. But he's got a lot more than that going for him. Edited January 23, 2025 by cubsfan
John Hjorth Posted January 23, 2025 Posted January 23, 2025 Sanctions aren't identical to tariffs, Mike [ @cubsfan ]. Individual sanctions on the ships in Russian shadow oil tanker fleet, meaning by their individual identity, is likely by now among some the most effective countermeasures possible to further deploy. - - - o 0 o - - - Here in Denmark, we had a situation not so long ago : dr.dk - Inland [January 14th 2025] : Mette Frederiksen calls it incomprehensible, but Danish shipyard just follows the rules. [Damn, I really like how good and handy Google Translate has become in recent years! ] So it's a bit complicated. New world order and situation, meaning new rules needed, because incumbent rules obsolete and creating obstacles and hurdles in the situation. If not anything else, all this suddenly keeps a lot of politicians and bureaucrats busy, waking them up from their sleep! So it's not only about access to harbours for these ships, it's certainly also about hitting on them on ongoing maintenance and repair, and on bunker supply.
John Hjorth Posted January 24, 2025 Posted January 24, 2025 YouTube : Times Radio [January 23rd 2025] : Putin is incapable of defeating Nato amid growing suspicions of Article 5 breach | Diane Francis To me, interesting considerations about the phycology and interaction dynamics between two bullies, who are about to bully each other. [<- Make your choice : Coffee, popcorn, or both].
John Hjorth Posted January 25, 2025 Posted January 25, 2025 (edited) Present Russian macroecomic commentaries and assessments : - - - o 0 o - - - Project Syndicate - Anders Åslund [January 14th 2025] : Putin’s War Is Fueling Russian Stagflation No public available measures any longer for Russian Inflation, Russian banks boosting Russian business lending based on backing on preferred basis from Bank of Russia [<- friggin' crazy and desparate, if one thinks carefully about it!], 108 airliners planned built since 2022, 7 [seven!] built, Russian National Wealth Fund [, which is financing the whole holly-go-molly] down to USD 31 B end of November 2023, expected to hit zero net assets within about nine months [, and what then?], personal taxation upped. - - - o 0 o - - - Reuters - Exclusive [January 23rd 2025] : Exclusive: Putin growing concerned by Russia’s economy, as Trump pushes for Ukraine deal Basically, more of the same, and : Quote ... Putin has said that Russia can fight on as long as it takes and that Moscow will never bow before another power over key national interests. ... I wonder if the man himself even believe this utter *BS*? And : Quote ... Some of Russia's most powerful businessmen, including Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin, Rostec CEO Sergei Chemezov, aluminium tycoon Oleg Deripaska [Rusal, John] and Alexei Mordashov, the largest shareholder in steel-maker Severstal, have publicly criticised the high interest rates. ... The mans cronies, some the most important of them, criticising him publicly, is by now almost unheard of, and thereby tell us a lot about the actual situation. Furthermore, Russian central bank boss Elvira Nabiullina giving up on raising central Russian interest rates further, pretty much. - - - o 0 o - - - So, a train, running at a steady clip, direction at a huge stop block at the end of the rail, and in the autumn 2025, is set by now to wreck in a huge blow-up! Edited January 25, 2025 by John Hjorth
John Hjorth Posted January 26, 2025 Posted January 26, 2025 A bit more than eight years ago, I posted this somewhere else : I think I'm now in need of a dose from @Spekulatius about the difference between being an optimistic realist and being a realistic optimist.
Xerxes Posted January 27, 2025 Posted January 27, 2025 On 1/25/2025 at 7:43 AM, John Hjorth said: Russian National Wealth Fund [, which is financing the whole holly-go-molly] down to USD 31 B end of November 2023, expected to hit zero net assets within about nine months [, and what then?], personal taxation upped. Good morning just catching up. read this few days ago and the $31B didn’t make sense. I double check it : https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_National_Wealth_Fund https://www.statista.com/statistics/1078279/russia-national-wealth-fund-volume/#:~:text=As of January 1%2C 2024,nearly 179 billion U.S. dollars.
Luke Posted January 28, 2025 Posted January 28, 2025 Okay, announce 500b Stargate thanks with the support from trump, now tariffs on taiwan who makes chips needed for stargate... https://au.pcmag.com/computers-electronics/109466/trump-to-tariff-chips-made-in-taiwan-targeting-tsmc Thoughts on this by the board? What should taiwan do? Military aid also being cut off. Would be madness for taiwan chip companies to move their production to the US because they would harm their own country severely...
nsx5200 Posted January 28, 2025 Posted January 28, 2025 Taiwan/TSM's have to keep the most advanced chip process in Taiwan due to the effort & skill it takes to develop new chip process. The capabilities that allows TSM to produce those advanced chips is in encapsulated in its labor force, which is predominately in Taiwan. We saw that to actually get a working US-based fab, they had to transfer that knowledge to the US by actually moving the Taiwanese people. The tech bros would probably not like to pay for the tariff premium. Their best options are: push back against the tariff(aka less regulation), or move/build the AI centric data centers outside of the U.S long term. They will most likely pursue the first option as Trump is fickle and can be more easily manipulated/bribed, especially once Trump realizes the Taiwanese workers are an important part of chip making process. Buying out Taiwan might be an option, but that is essentially declaring war on China. The US's best bet is to arm Taiwan to the teeth by supporting arm sales and at least announcing very loudly the arms sales/transfer in order to signal its commitment to defending Taiwan (whether US will actually follow through with defending Taiwan is another beast). The US arms industry will also benefit from the additional revenue, which will feed Trump's base. It's a win-win scenario for Trump. IMHO, DeepSeek is just noise as no matter what happens, they have to integrate the new techniques from DeepSeek just to keep up their competitive edge with their peers. It ups the ante, but isn't a long-term advantage or disadvantage similar to the effects of ATM to banks, so it's not really relevant to the long-term chip production discussion. Disclosure: I'm have significant vested interested in Taiwan, but also hold China-centric assets. Caveat emptor.
Spekulatius Posted January 30, 2025 Posted January 30, 2025 21 hours ago, Gamecock-YT said: Happy Lunar New Year Flexing quite a bit here:
Spekulatius Posted February 2, 2025 Posted February 2, 2025 (edited) While the tariffs slapped on Mexico and Canada makes the most headlines, China also gets an extra 10% but equally impotent the de minimus provision seems to be gone come Tuesday. That means that Shein and Temu are probably finished in the US: https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/01/politics/mexico-canada-china-tariffs-trump/index.html Quote The tariffs will have no exemptions, and the executive action Trump signed Saturday will close the so-called de minimis loophole that had allowed shipments of $800 or less to come into the United States tax-free — a key provision used by many American small businesses but also Chinese e-commerce companies such as Shein and Temu. Trump administration officials said the loophole prevented customs officials from properly inspecting those packages. Edited February 2, 2025 by Spekulatius
John Hjorth Posted February 2, 2025 Posted February 2, 2025 This is to me personally a bit entertaining : Tass - Russian News Agency [February 2nd 2025] : Russia will not allow turning Baltic Sea into NATO’s ‘internal waters’ — Russian diplomat.
Pelagic Posted February 3, 2025 Posted February 3, 2025 An interesting wrinkle in the Trump aid to Ukraine saga. I think more than anything it's an easy way for Trump to justify continuing aid to Ukraine to his base. The appearance of some form of deal for rare earth metals at an indeterminate date post war in exchange for support - a win - win scenario.
sleepydragon Posted February 5, 2025 Posted February 5, 2025 https://about.usps.com/newsroom/service-alerts/international/suspension-of-inbound-parcels-from-china-and-hong-kong.htm
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