Political Posts

[John Hjorth]

35 minutes ago, d29 said:

And Gazprom will stop deliveries to Moldova starting Jan 1st.

 

This will throw their own separatist region Transnistria intro disarray as they were highly dependend on it for both heating and to subsidize their highly inefficient steel industry.

 

Just in time to wreak havoc in the Moldovan parliamentary elections in spring as well.

 

Thank you, @d29,

 

Yeah, that, too.

 

Reuters [December 28^th 2024] : Russia says it will stop gas exports to Moldova from Jan 1

 

It reads like it's an accounting quarrel between Gazprom AR accounting department and Moldovian utility AP accounting department. Somebody - bookkeepers and bean counters - should really be at work here in the Hollidays exchanging papers and notes about account reconsiliations, and get to an agreement, or they should be fired with immediate effect coming Wednesday morning, if not solved and cleared at that time! A diff of USD 700.4 million! 

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

I found this map of the European gas pipeline network yesterday - now try to look at how many gas pipelines go through Ukraine and Belarus into Europe! :

 

entsog.eu [January 11^th 2024, updated February 20^th 2024] : System Capacity Map 2024 [Retrieved December 29^th 2024].

[formthirteen]

 

[Spekulatius]

5 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

 

Thank you, @d29,

 

Yeah, that, too.

 

Reuters [December 28^th 2024] : Russia says it will stop gas exports to Moldova from Jan 1

 

It reads like it's an accounting quarrel between Gazprom AR accounting department and Moldovian utility AP accounting department. Somebody - bookkeepers and bean counters - should really be at work here in the Hollidays exchanging papers and notes about account reconsiliations, and get to an agreement, or they should be fired with immediate effect coming Wednesday morning, if not solved and cleared at that time! A diff of USD 700.4 million! 

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

I found this map of the European gas pipeline network yesterday - now try to look at how many gas pipelines go through Ukraine and Belarus into Europe! :

 

entsog.eu [January 11^th 2024, updated February 20^th 2024] : System Capacity Map 2024 [Retrieved December 29^th 2024].

Do you really think this is about an accounting issue?

[nsx5200]

4 hours ago, formthirteen said:

A Simplified Chinese transcript to that speech for those that wants a more direct source:

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/nwdP3GR-H8-m94NUnlsM-g

[John Hjorth]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

Do you really think this is about an accounting issue?

 

The respective accounting departments may triangulate and pinpoint differencies, and present them to the respective managements at debtor and creditor. Then Gazprom CEO Alexey Miller [<- he has started to look like something dragged in by the cat recently, btw.] and Moldova utility CEO must solve and settle this.

 

It is a business issue.

 

I woulden't be surprised at all by seeing this escalate in the beginning of January, because of interference by politicians.

 

If somebody makes it a political issue, and thereby 'infect' and stall the solution process, it wont be solved in a satisfactory way for the Moldovan population, timely. Hostage taking has become general modus operandi in all this mess.

 

Lets see, soon.

Edited December 29, 2024 by John Hjorth

[nsx5200]

51 minutes ago, nsx5200 said:

A Simplified Chinese transcript to that speech for those that wants a more direct source:

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/nwdP3GR-H8-m94NUnlsM-g

Lots of great insights from Li Liu.  I will probably need to go through it a couple times to fully digest it and think about the implications of some of those ideas.

 

Here are some of the translated quotes that IMHO, are notable, as well as some of my commentaries:

"The first example is about the concept of "land". In the 2.0 agricultural civilization era, land and population are the most important indicators for determining the size of an economy, and the sum of the two basically constitutes the total volume of an economy.[...] Many people who have left their names in history are often related to land expansion or defending land from invasion."

"However, in the 3.0 era of technological civilization, as the economy enters a sustainable, compound growth stage, the reason and driving force for economic growth is no longer land and population."

 

Looking at the actions of the 'strongmen' of the worlds, it seems like their thinking is stuck in the past, and they're trying to leave their mark the old way via conquering land & people.  IMHO, I think it's a pretty good measuring stick for valuing some of the proposals from the incoming U.S. administration.

 

"The most important event was that after World War II, the United States became the first country in human history to return all the territories it had acquired to the original country free of charge after victory in the war."

"The United States bears about 80% of the world's military spending."

 

IMHO, these magnanimous goodwill allows the US to have such a strong influence in the world stage, which in turn, allows the US dollar to be the currency of the world.  It allows the US to borrow and spend that can not be matched by any other country while the rest of the world pays for it.  By holding and using US dollar, other countries are implicitly paying for this world order.  Although the incoming administration got elected on MAGA, the current line-up for their advisors seems to want to maintain a strong US presence on the world stage.  At least that's my hope...

[d29]

Russia is willing to self destroy their own separatist region in Moldova in exchange for some unrest and favorable outcome in the spring parliamentary elections there.

 

https://www.facebook.com/marius.ghincea/posts/pfbid029tC5XbGpYDEiYDKT7vVzhRdfZZKNNvZBhDA9SqydYg4NvWc5y7VQPS89vSS3uezCl?ref=embed_post

 

Transalation here:

 

Quote

The Moldovan authorities in Chisinau are currently facing a situation that presents a set of opportunities, but also many risks for the stability and integrity of the Moldovan constitutional order.

Gazprom has informed MoldovaGaz that it will suspend gas supplies to the Transnistrian region starting January 1, 2025. This decision comes in the context of the Ukrainian authorities' refusal to allow the continuation of Russian gas transit from the beginning of next year, when the existing transit contract expires, and the failure (intentional?) by Gazprom to reserve transport capacity on the trans-Balkan route for January.

In Moldova's energy architecture, this Russian gas played an important role in the production of cheap electricity at the Cuciurgan thermoelectric power plant, controlled by the Tiraspol regime.

In other words, Gazprom supplied gas to MoldovaGaz, a subsidiary of Gazprom, which then passed it on to the Transnistrian regime, which used much of it to produce electricity, which was then sold to the government in Chisinau.

For Transnistria, Russian gas is an essential economic binder. It is used to cover the region's electricity needs, district heating, energy for energy-intensive industries (on which the profits of the Sheriff conglomerate depend) and brings in a large part of the separatist regime's budget revenues. In fact, the Tiraspol regime's budget is already suffering from the reduction in industrial activity, largely kept alive by Romania.

Returning to Moldova, the cessation of Russian gas supplies via the Ukrainian route brings with it a series of opportunities, but also risks of destabilization.

***

There are three main opportunities that I see from this whole story:

Chisinau can use this moment to further redefine the economic and political parameters of the relationship with Tiraspol.

In recent years, Moldova has taken concrete steps to extend constitutional and administrative order to the left bank of the Dniester River. This includes requiring Transnistrian companies to register with the Moldovan Trade Register if they want to export to the EU, where over 80% of the region's exports go, and eliminating exemptions from paying taxes and duties.

The elimination of the Ukrainian route for the supply of Russian gas, used to generate electricity at the Cuciurgan thermoelectric power plant, increases the leverage available to Chisinau in its relationship with Tiraspol.

At this moment, Tiraspol is almost completely a prisoner of the authorities in Chisinau, who can economically suffocate the Transnistrian regime.

Stopping the Ukrainian route for Russian gas also represents an opportunity to further increase Moldova's energy and economic resilience.

The increased dependence on electricity produced at Cuciurgan is a vulnerability for Moldova's energy security. The current situation offers a window of opportunity for resource diversification and a readjustment of energy cost expectations.

Together with help from Romania, both through the provision of subsidized energy from Cernavoda and through a potential unification of energy markets, Cuciurgan may become just one option among others. A good option for cheap energy, but still only one of many available. And this further reduces the room for maneuver of the Tiraspol regime in favor of Chisinau.

The cessation, even temporarily, of energy production at Cuciurgan allows for an even faster anchoring of Moldova in the Romanian energy system. As we know, the Romanian state has already assumed that energy production (from all sources) must ensure both domestic needs and all Moldova's needs. A crisis like this can lead to an amplification of Moldova's energy integration into the Romanian energy system.

This anchoring can play an important role in guaranteeing Moldova's pro-European economic and (hopefully) political orientation, regardless of who comes to power in Chisinau.

***

The suspension of Russian gas supplies via the Ukrainian route also comes with a significant set of risks for Moldova's internal stability:

Without cheap Russian gas, the Cuciurgan power plant and the energy-consuming industries on the left bank of the Dniester will enter a deep crisis, which may have a destabilizing effect, in socio-economic and political terms, also on the right bank of the Dniester.

Without cheap Russian gas, Transnistria's economy will suffocate, and this will force the Tiraspol regime to choose between three complementary options: increasing the degree of internal repression, escalating tensions with Moldova to distract attention from the economic crisis, or abandoning secessionist ambitions.

Given the already fragile economic and political situation on the right bank of the Dniester, the destabilization of Transnistria is unacceptable for Chisinau. Especially since crucial parliamentary elections for the future of Moldova are coming up, where pro-Russian forces have a credible chance of obtaining a majority.

A deep crisis in Transnistria, even without an escalation of tensions between Tiraspol and Chisinau, will lead to a serious humanitarian crisis. We are talking about hundreds of thousands of people who will be left without heat in the middle of winter, without jobs in an energy-hungry industry left without resources.

This has the potential to produce waves of internal refugees, putting pressure on public finances in Chisinau and economically destabilizing Moldova in an election year. Such a situation will require international humanitarian aid.

A sudden collapse of the Tiraspol regime would put Chisinau in an unprecedented situation, in which it would have to assume administrative and political responsibility for an additional 300,000+ people on the left bank of the Dniester. Given that the state already has limited capacity, it is unclear how Moldova could take on the burden of paying pensions, salaries, and establishing Moldovan administrative institutions in Transnistria.

The fundamental political risk would be that a potential sudden collapse of Transnistria would bring back under the Moldovan constitutional order over 200,000+ voters with explicit pro-Russian preferences. Given the difference between the votes obtained by Maia Sandu and Alexandr Stoianoglo in the presidential elections, it is possible that these new voters could ensure the victory of a pro-Russian majority in Chisinau.

In short, the suspension of Russian gas supplies to Transnistria brings both opportunities and risks for Moldova. It remains to be seen how well the Moldovan government can manage this explosive mix.

All reactions:

142142

 

 

[John Hjorth]

Police of Finland [December 29^th 2024] : National Bureau of Investigation continues investigation into cable rupture.

 

Quote

... – With the underwater operations, we have been able to identify the dragging track at the seabed from the beginning to the end. The track is dozens of kilometres in length. ...

 

'We're sorry, we were unaware of that we were dragging our anchor behind us.' Honestly, it's the joke of the year!  

Edited December 29, 2024 by John Hjorth

[Blake Hampton]

The WSJ published a really good article that includes some interesting charts and data.

 

China’s Economy Is Burdened by Years of Excess. Here’s How Bad It Really Is.

 

I really believe China is in a bad spot.

Edited January 2, 2025 by Blake Hampton

[Blake Hampton]

"China's real estate crunch has vaporized trillions of dollars of household wealth tied up in property, equivalent to around $60,000 per household."

^ Now that is crazy. I remember reading about the ideology of Chinese investors once, and they touched on how investors there didn't favor stocks, they mostly preferred real estate. This seems like a lot of pain, and I think their country is facing some deep systemic issues.

[ICUMD]

15 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

"China's real estate crunch has vaporized trillions of dollars of household wealth tied up in property, equivalent to around $60,000 per household."

^ Now that is crazy. I remember reading about the ideology of Chinese investors once, and they touched on how investors there didn't favor stocks, they mostly preferred real estate. This seems like a lot of pain, and I think their country is facing some deep systemic issues.

Wonder if this reflects the cost of 'bandwagoning' or 'groupthink'.  Everyone jumping on the same asset class at the same time inflating prices well above market through supply demand imbalance. 

 

Nothing like a price correction to recalibrate!

Edited January 2, 2025 by ICUMD

[Blake Hampton]

18 minutes ago, ICUMD said:

Wonder if this reflects the cost of 'bandwagoning' or 'groupthink'.  Everyone jumping on the same asset class at the same time inflating prices well above market through supply demand imbalance. 

 

Nothing like a price correction to recalibrate!

I hope you’re not trying to draw parallels.

 

Something like this could never happen in the United States!

[ICUMD]

@Blake Hampton haha!

 

Probably an important consideration across many asset classes. Whether you consider housing prices, AI, crypto etc.

 

Key thing is not to hold when the music stops.

[TwoCitiesCapital]

3 hours ago, Blake Hampton said:

"China's real estate crunch has vaporized trillions of dollars of household wealth tied up in property, equivalent to around $60,000 per household."

^ Now that is crazy. I remember reading about the ideology of Chinese investors once, and they touched on how investors there didn't favor stocks, they mostly preferred real estate. This seems like a lot of pain, and I think their country is facing some deep systemic issues.

 

Perhaps this is what drives the wealth of the country towards stocks vs real estate and is long term bullish? 

[Spekulatius]

I just noticed that the “1420” Channel  (Daniil) who has been conducting street interviews in Russia is active gain. This is a particular interesting and descriptive one that shows exactly how Putin operates (and most autocratic regimes for that matter). Heartbreaking really:

 

 

[Spekulatius]

Probably need more than a slap on the wrist to prevent this going forward:

https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2025/01/05/2003829674
 

Als the more reason shadow fleet taken care of. Look at this rust bucket!

[mcliu]

 

[Dalal.Holdings]

https://www.ft.com/content/38f1e51b-83b8-45cb-9cbf-2bc63f18e6ce

 

 

Quote

Chinese venture capitalists are hounding failed founders, pursuing personal assets and adding the individuals to a national debtor blacklist when they fail to pay up, in moves that are throwing the country’s start-up funding ecosystem into crisis. The hard-nosed tactics by risk capital providers have been facilitated by clauses known as redemption rights, included in nearly all the financing deals struck during China’s boom times.

 

 

One of the top comments to the article:

 

Quote

This is one of the bottlenecks throttling entrepreneurial activity in China: the failure to comprehend the limited liability corporate structure. Domestic investors, backed by the regulators, essentially expect VC returns but only want to bear bond-level risk. I have written before that while China had made progress in recent decades developing rule of law, with courts, precedents, and other things necessary for commercial expansion, that process never reached completion and under Xi has gone into reverse. This is why foreign VC was so important in China. At a macro level China exported low-risk capital through its current and capital accounts and then imported high-risk venture capital through Western institutions that understood the business. That was the basis of China's technological modernization and innovation. Now that due diligence is illegal, however, foreign law firms, VC funds, and accountancies are withdrawing from the country and Beijing is learning, a day late and a renminbi short, that you can't have capitalist returns unless you have a capitalist economy.

 

This is hilarious...these guys just don't understand capitalism at a fundamental level

 

Edited January 6, 2025 by Dalal.Holdings

[zippy1]

18 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Probably need more than a slap on the wrist to prevent this going forward:

https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2025/01/05/2003829674
 

Als the more reason shadow fleet taken care of. Look at this rust bucket!

There is a Chinese patent on how to cut the underseas cable with low cost. 
"本发明公开了一种拖曳式海底电缆切割装置及其电缆切割方法。现有需要一种快速、低成本的海底电缆切割装置。本发明的拖环固定在主杆一端，主杆另一端固定有两块翼板；两块翼板的一个侧面位于对称中心线处固定有一个锚钩，另一侧面位于对称中心线处也固定有一个锚钩；两个锚钩内侧均固定有切割刀，且每把切割刀与两块翼板之间均设有一块导铁，导铁与两块翼板均固定；铁链一端与固定在拖船上的拉力传感器固定，另一端与切割锚的铁链固定。本发明的拖船通过铁链拖动切割锚切割电缆，实现了切割锚直接在海底钩住电缆并快速切断电缆，且从拉力传感器和回收切割锚后检查切割刀上是否有残留铜屑两方面确认电缆切割是否完成，可靠性强。"
Translated this with ChatGPT
 

This invention discloses a towed submarine cable cutting device and its cutting method. Currently, there is a need for a fast and cost-effective submarine cable cutting device. In this invention, a towing ring is fixed at one end of the main rod, while two wing plates are fixed at the other end. On one side of the two wing plates, a grappling hook is mounted at the centerline of symmetry, and another grappling hook is mounted on the opposite side at the same centerline. Cutting blades are fixed inside both grappling hooks, and a guide iron is installed between each cutting blade and the two wing plates, which are also fixed to the guide iron.

One end of the iron chain is connected to a tension sensor mounted on the tugboat, while the other end is attached to the chain of the cutting anchor. The tugboat tows the cutting anchor using the iron chain to cut the cable. This enables the cutting anchor to directly hook and quickly sever the cable on the seabed. The completion of the cable cutting is confirmed by checking the tension sensor and inspecting the cutting blades for residual copper debris after recovering the cutting anchor, ensuring high reliability.

https://patents.google.com/patent/CN111203499A/zh

[John Hjorth]

Vatnik Soup

 

Looks good!

[Luke]

 

Pretty good take on the current situation

[Luke]

23 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Probably need more than a slap on the wrist to prevent this going forward:

https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2025/01/05/2003829674
 

Als the more reason shadow fleet taken care of. Look at this rust bucket!

Regarding Taiwan this comment is thought provoking, by Adam Tooze:

 

 

 

 

Edited January 7, 2025 by Luke

[Luke]

It was probably a huge strategic mistake by western elites to internationally isolate Taiwan so much but at the same time support so much of its high tech growth.

[zippy1]

7 minutes ago, Luke said:

Regarding Taiwan this comment is thought provoking, by Adam Tooze:

 

 

 

 

It is thought provoking because he completely ignore that there are 25 million people living on the island and most of these do not want to be ruled y CCP, I suppose.. 

[Luke]

3 minutes ago, zippy1 said:

It is thought provoking because he completely ignore that there are 25 million people living on the island and most of these do not want to be ruled y CCP, I suppose.. 

Yes of course, the ideal case is Taiwan establishing independence via referendum and gets acknowledged worldwide. And then china accepts it too. Is that realistic though? Anyways folks, i am out of china stocks just now. No more energy with all this geopolitical non sense and war games, takes up way too much mental energy and china moves nowhere for years while the US outperforming on all fronts. I was the last bullish man standing but admit defeat and mistake.