Political Posts

[cubsfan]

1 hour ago, LC said:

Since some folks could use some education:

 

The American revolutionary war lasted eight years

Approximately 1%  of the "American" population died

 

Currently the Ukranian war has gone on three years

And the lowest estimates put the Ukranian death toll at 0.14% of the population. Highest estimates put it at 0.26% of the pre-war population.

 

But apparently the Ukranian people shouldn't be allowed to fight for their own independence, I guess because big daddy Putin and his little puppet Trump say so.

 

If that were the case, it would not be such a big deal.

 

I think we will eventually find out these casualty numbers are dramatically suppressed.  Can't prove it - but with a corrupt government like Ukraine - I do not at all believe their casualty numbers. I would really be surprised if death toll is less than 1M. 

 

One of these days we will know the truth.

[LC]

1 minute ago, cubsfan said:

I think we will eventually find out these casualty numbers are dramatically suppressed

 

You may be right (low probability but possible) but regardless - who the hell are we to tell them they cannot fight for their own freedom? 

 

Not only that, but we go a step further and are actively obstructing their efforts. And we are supposed to be Ukraine's ally? It's disgraceful - and sends a terrible message to our other "allies". 

 

 

[cubsfan]

4 minutes ago, LC said:

 

You may be right (low probability but possible) but regardless - who the hell are we to tell them they cannot fight for their own freedom? 

 

Not only that, but we go a step further and are actively obstructing their efforts. And we are supposed to be Ukraine's ally? It's disgraceful - and sends a terrible message to our other "allies". 

 

Trump has been moving heaven and earth to try and end this conflict. It takes 2 to really settle this conflict.  Hopefully, Trump will just walk on this effort.

 

20 years in Ukraine, like Iraq/Afghanistan/Vietnam is a big no. 

[Loss Horizon]

2 hours ago, cubsfan said:

 

Two questions for you @Sweet on what I see as a stalemate like Verdun:

 

1 - What has really been accomplished in the last 3 years of this war, other than massive deaths?

 

2- How will that change in the next 3 years - and who will force that change?

 

Try and be specific on #2 if you don't mind.

 

That's a good question. What exactly is the nature of the war?

 

On the first day of the full scale invasion Russia sent not only the army, but also massive columns of riot police with no battle grade weapons. Russia thought that Ukrainian army would be too scared and would not fight. Russia saw the main problem in suppressing civilian unarmed protests.

 

When Russia briefly captured Kherson, what did they do first? They built a network of torture prisons, as a way to suppress resistance and protests.

 

Russia captured large parts of Donbass in 2014. What has happened to them since then? Complete economic and social  devastation. The current head of that area Pushilin is a former head of a major ponzi scheme. The previous leaders were even worse. A majority of adult men from the captured area were drafted into Russian army and died on the war against the rest of Ukraine.

 

Most people on the West have an idea about wars that soldiers need ideology, motivation and high moral. The Russian war is completely different. Russia built a well optimized pipeline of sending people to death against their will. The front line units are staffed with the most cruel and unhinged folks they can find, and their role is not to fight the enemy. They form the skeleton crew and send soldiers to the battle at scale, using nice talking, pressure, violence, torture, executions, whatever is necessary. The war censorship and propaganda tries to hide that, but it leaks systematically on social media.

 

Back to the question, what Ukraine achieved in the last 3 years and thousands of combat deaths? No network of torture prisons and riot police units, no economic and social devastation which would come with Russian rule, no forced draft of all Ukrainian men to the Russian army for the next war in East Europe. Only millions of refugees to Europe, instead of tens of millions fleeting the whole country of Ukraine.

 

That's some of what they fight for.

[SharperDingaan]

The US had its day in the sun and grew GNP faster than the population; whereas Canada ... not so much. Of course, every wheel turns ... 

 

The long overdue reinvestment in Canadian infrastructure, defence industry, and reduced immigration, should raise Canada's productivity pretty quickly. Hard to say the same for the US ... as with 10x the population of Canada, their GNP change needs to be 10x that of Canada - just to stay even. Canada could also scale up raw material production, and process it locally vs export it, to make pipe, rail, and weapons/munitions domestically (jets, artillery/mortar shells, air/sea drones, equipment, etc.) for export to other non US NATO allies - all at no tariffs, and at the expense of the US. 

 

It matters, as everywhere more productive that the US - will drain capital out of the US. US tariffs that both reduce trade, and GNP, further reducing productivity. The iffy value of a US signature on any kind of trade related deal (CUSMA), and questionable ability to keep financing existing debt, further poisoning the well. Add to it the crowding out when many other sovereigns are now materially borrowing at the same time, and US interest rates will also be a hot higher. None of this good for GNP.     

 

Canada also has solid engineering capabilities, the largest Ukrainian population outside of the Ukraine, and they are very good at air/sea drones. Rather than manned submarines to patrol Canada's coasts, and under the ice; little prevents a drone from hovering for months at a time - above/below the ice. 

 

It is yesterdays man that is in trouble ...     

 

SD

Edited November 23, 2025 by SharperDingaan

[Gregmal]

You can also add in that Ukrainian girl who was able to escape to America, only to be murdered on her way home from work because of liberal politics.

[Junior R]

18 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

I predict like every prediction, this will not be entirely correct and long-term will be off by a lot.  Similar to the "Is Europe Becoming Uninvestable" thread! 

 

Canada is heavily a resource-based economy...revenues from resources trickle into investments and into everything else.  How Canada's resource trade goes, that's how Canada goes.  The last 10 years have been one of restricting and regulating how Canada benefited from its resources.  That is clearly changing and the next 10 years will not be the same!  Cheers! 

I don't think thats changing Mark Carney has a green mindset...

 

Quote

NOW - Canada PM Carney says AI data centres must be carbon neutral, by paying carbon credits, "We need a price on carbon, I salute my neighbor, the European Union, in pricing carbon and putting in place a CBAM."

 

X Video

 

The difference was Europe was trading at a low multiple and made sense ....Many stocks in Canada is now trading at high multiples with a government that has a green mindset when the big neighbour (US) does not...so it will be hard to compete   

[Parsad]

5 hours ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

 

The thing about Trump is he doesn't mind causing chaos to advance his goals. The document certainly got the attention of the world (Ukraine, European leaders, etc) to mobilize and come up with a counter-document, did it not ? A lot of people freaked out and it forced them into a sense of urgency and now an end to the war is seriously being discussed

 

It's best not to get too riled up with Trump's moves (as was seen on social media and threads like this one) because it is liable to give you whiplash

 

Now whether Putin accepts the new terms is a big question mark, but Trump's move last week did get people moving quickly...

 

 

Your suggestion that this was a bluff by Trump to get Europe involved is ridiculous!  Cheers!

[Parsad]

7 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Looks  like the peace plan is a Russian document (more or less) that is presented by the US state department.

 

 

Perhaps not a surprise, Vlad Vexler and others noted that the writing sounded like Russian phrases translated into English. So the clown show continues.

 

 

 

Probably correct!  

 

https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/23/politics/us-senators-rounds-rubio-ukraine-peace-plan

 

How long before Little Marco is tossed?  Could be sooner than any of us thought!  Cheers!

[Parsad]

40 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:

The US had its day in the sun and grew GNP faster than the population; whereas Canada ... not so much. Of course, every wheel turns ... 

 

The long overdue reinvestment in Canadian infrastructure, defence industry, and reduced immigration, should raise Canada's productivity pretty quickly. Hard to say the same for the US ... as with 10x the population of Canada, their GNP change needs to be 10x that of Canada - just to stay even. Canada could also scale up raw material production, and process it locally vs export it, to make pipe, rail, and weapons/munitions domestically (jets, artillery/mortar shells, air/sea drones, equipment, etc.) for export to other non US NATO allies - all at no tariffs, and at the expense of the US. 

 

It matters, as everywhere more productive that the US - will drain capital out of the US. US tariffs that both reduce trade, and GNP, further reducing productivity. The iffy value of a US signature on any kind of trade related deal (CUSMA), and questionable ability to keep financing existing debt, further poisoning the well. Add to it the crowding out when many other sovereigns are now materially borrowing at the same time, and US interest rates will also be a hot higher. None of this good for GDP.     

 

Canada also has solid engineering capabilities, the largest Ukrainian population outside of the Ukraine, and they are very good at air/sea drones. Rather than manned submarines to patrol Canada's coasts, and under the ice, little prevents a drone from hovering for months at a time - above/below the ice. 

 

It is yesterdays man that is in trouble ...     

 

SD

 

+1!  Cheers!

[John Hjorth]

We have a very nice person among us here on CofB&F that has rearrived here, active again not that long ago after a break from here during some time span, who I think likely is the person with most potential skin in the game related to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, at least I speculate it so. With that person I have earlier discussed what to do, if this armed conflict escalates out af control, thereby actively involving Europe including Denmark in war against the agressor. You can look it up in the Novo Nordisk topic posted today. It made me chew on things again today.

 

Here is a couple of shots of our two fridge magnets, It's hers, I dumped all mine, when we started living together :

 

 

#1 : The Lady of House actually has family on Vancouver Island, two sisters to the mother of the Lady of The House, immigrated to Vancouver Island with their spouses and kids [5 or 6 kids per family] in the late 1950's, hell bent to take over and establish Danish control over Vancouver Island, populating the island, the kids also reproducing! The Lady of the House still has regular contact with one her male cousins over there.

#2 : Reads 'Venner er den familie du selv vælger', which translates to English by : 'Friends are the family you chose  yourself'. When I'm fridge dumpster diving, I always come think of Sanjeevs [ @Parsads] board signature on the former board software platform! I also like the colours on it.

 

- - - o 0 o - - - - 

 

It has been in last Christmas vacation period, I think, I had this serious talk with her about what do we do , if that Russian-Ukrainian situation ecalates into Denmarks active participation in the war. Simply because we have the means and are situated to do so if we want. Many here are not because of all kinds of obligations, locked in where the tent pegs are already driven in [jobs, debt etc.]

 

Earlier I have had only one real showstopper for my longing to go abroad, my father and well being in his last years. He passed away in August 2022, and his estate is settled by now. Our kids are adults, busy with their own lives and thet are all three doing well, never asking for anything, but also not paying much attention to us. One gets used to it, we weren't really not much better ourselves, untill our two longest living parents were late in their life,and really in need of our attention.

 

We coulden't come to an agreement on this. She had no intentions of moving her butt in that case, and wanted me also to stay put. I had to say to her, that I diden't agree with her, and she had to give the same terms, that I offered her for colocation with me : No strings at all, she can do whatever she wants, infidelity the only exeption, she is a mature and independent person in her own right. Waking up every morning beside her knowing she is there because she wants to is a very confirming way to start the day, every day! That also implies never a marriage with me, because  it creates so many obstackles in an eventual split later, according to Danish Law. She really diden't understand it to its full extent back then, but she grabbed that now, and she reluctantly set me free to do whatever I would do in that instant. But there was silence some days in the house, we diden't talk much with each other during those days.

 

If I leave in case of war here, i'll likely go to Vancouver Island for a period, living like a bum in a backpack and a room with a be bed, a table, a chair, my devices and Wifi, my ride still my rollator, perhaps a bicycle, subject to my health situation permits. That's my most serious concern in that regard, leaving the good, but not perfect Danish one-payer health care system. She will then stay here, with our home totally intact.

 

What is it? I've found out there is a spot, land pocket, on the east side of Vancouver Island, where it's actully by now possible to grow olive trees. Such climate must fit me well.

 

If I eventually end up needing a Canadian bank account I already know where to ask. 

 

The only thing I haven't checked is the Canadian border and entry control. I'll need to check that up at the Canadian Embassy in Copenhagen.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Personal anecdotal IRL stuff here shared especially with my fellow North American board members about how it is to be a North European citizen by now. I certainly understand it perhaps can be hard for North American citizens to grasp, far away, on long distance, on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean.

Edited November 23, 2025 by John Hjorth

[Parsad]

9 minutes ago, Junior R said:

I don't think thats changing Mark Carney has a green mindset...

 

 

X Video

 

The difference was Europe was trading at a low multiple and made sense ....Many stocks in Canada is now trading at high multiples with a government that has a green mindset when the big neighbour (US) does not...so it will be hard to compete   

 

Carney has a green mindset, but he knows that to get there, you have to sell a lot of carbon-based resources to fund those goals.  It's why he approved the new LNG platform and is willing to build pipelines from Alberta to both coasts.  The more they generate from the sale of oil and LNG, the more money that can go to fund green energy long-term. 

 

Your talking about stock market price in Canada...I'm talking about the economy...two different things!  If increased global trade and investment in the country increases GDP and company earnings, as the economy does better and better, the market will rise over time.  Related...but two different things.  Cheers!

[Parsad]

9 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

We have a very nice person among us here on CofB&F that has rearrived here, active again not that long ago after a break from here during some time span, who i think likely is the person with most potential skin in the game related to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, at least I speculate it so. With that person I have earlier discussed what to do, if this armed conflict escalates out af control, thereby actively involving Europe including Denmark in war against the agressor. You can look it up in the Novo Nordisk topic posted today. It made me chew on things again today.

 

Here is a couple of shots of our two fridge magnets, It's hers, I dumped all mine, when we started living together :

 

 

#1 : The Lady of House actually has family on Vancouver Island, two sisters to the mother of the Lady of The House, immigrated to Vancouver Island with their spouses and kids [5 or 6 kids per family] in the late 1950's, hell bent to take over and establish Danish control over Vancouver Island, populating the island, the kids also reproducing! The Lady of the House still has regular contact with one her male cousins over there.

#2 : Reads 'Venner er den familie du selv vælger', which translates to English by : 'Friends are the family you chose  yourself'. When I'm fridge dumpster diving, I always come think of Sanjeevs [ @Parsads] board sinature on the former board software platform! I also like the colours on it.

 

- - - o 0 o - - - - 

 

It has been in last Christmas vacation period, I think, I had this serious talk with her about what do we do , if that Russian-Ukrainian situation ecalates into Denmarks active participation in the war. Simply because we have the means and are situated to do so if we want. Many here are not because of all kinds of obligations, locked in where the tent pegs are already driven in [jobs, debt etc.]

 

Earlier I have had only one real showstopper for my longing to go abroad, my father and well being in his last years. He passed away in August 2022, and his estate is settled by now. Our kids are adults, busy with their own lives and thet are all three doing well, never asking for anything, but also not paying much attention to us. One gets used to it, we weren't really not much better ourselves, untill our two longest living parents were late in their life,and really in need of our attention.

 

We coulden't come to an agreement on this. She had no intentions of moving her butt in that case, and wanted me also to stay put. I had to say to her, that I diden't agree with her, and she had to give the same terms, that I offered her for colocation with me : No strings at all, she can do whatever she wants, infidelity the only exeption, she is a mature and independent person in her own right. Waking up every morning beside her knowing she is there because she wants to is a very confirming way to start the day, every day! That also implies never a marriage with me, because  it creates so many obstackles in an eventual split later, according to Danish Law. She really diden't understand it to its full extent back then, but she grabbed that now, and she reluctantly set me free to do whatever I would do in that instant. But there was silence some days in the house, we diden't talk much with each other during those days.

 

If I leave in case of war here, i'll likely go to Vancouver Island for a period, living like a bum in a backpack and a room with a be bed, a table, a chair, my devices and Wifi, my ride still my rollator, perhaps a bicycle, subject to my health situation permits. That's my most serious concern in that regard, leaving the good, but not perfect Danish one-payer health care system. She will then stay here, with our home totally intact.

 

What is it? I've found out there is a spot, land pocket on the east side of Vancouver Island, where it's actully by now possible tol grow olive trees. Such climate must fit me well.

 

If I eventually end up needing a Canadian bank account I already know where to ask. 

 

The only thing I haven't checked is the Canadian border and entry control. I'll need to check that up at the Canadian Embassy in Copenhagen.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Personal anecdotal IRL stuff here shared especially with my fellow North American board members about how it is to be a North European citizen by now. I certainly understand it perhaps can be hard for North American citizens to grasp, far away, on long distance, on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean.

 

John, Vancouver Island is one of the most spectacular habitats in the entire world.  If most of my family wasn't on the mainland in Vancouver, I would easily live on Vancouver Island.  Absolutely beautiful and lovely...every day is heaven there! 

 

Victoria used to be one of the few places where palm trees could survive the winters.  With global warming, a good part of Vancouver and Victoria can now have palm trees.  And yes, there are parts even where you can grow olive trees like Osoyoos which is close to Kelowna.  Cheers!

[Junior R]

24 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

Carney has a green mindset, but he knows that to get there, you have to sell a lot of carbon-based resources to fund those goals.  It's why he approved the new LNG platform and is willing to build pipelines from Alberta to both coasts.  The more they generate from the sale of oil and LNG, the more money that can go to fund green energy long-term. 

 

Your talking about stock market price in Canada...I'm talking about the economy...two different things!  If increased global trade and investment in the country increases GDP and company earnings, as the economy does better and better, the market will rise over time.  Related...but two different things.  Cheers!

 

 

That sounds good in theory, but his industrial carbon taxes destroy Canada's competitiveness. Those taxes drive up the cost of producing oil and LNG, which undermines the very revenue source that will fund the green transition.

He needs to drop the green mindset to bring in those dollars first. Once the revenue is actually flowing, then he can reintroduce those goal, but trying to force the green agenda right now puts the cart before the horse.

[Spooky]

6 hours ago, Libs said:

I was surprised to find this.

 

CDN vs U.S. GDP / per capita was ~equal in ~2011/2012 at around $52,000.

 

Now we have a huge gap.

 

Canada $54,000 (as of 12/2024; barely changed in ~14 years!)

U.S. : $86,000

 

https://countryeconomy.com/countries/compare/canada/usa?sc=XE34

 

So the last decade and a half has seen a huge gap open up. 

 

Off the top of my head, I would list higher taxes and regulation holding back Canada; and the U.S. benefitting from higher productivity but also massive stimulus

(hence the US higher proportional deficits / debt -  US per capita federal debt $34,000 V Canada $22,000.)

 

What do our Canadian friends think about this? 

 

I guess that's why the unemployment rate is so much higher up north (6.9% vs 4.3% in the U.S.)

 

There would be massive unrest in the U.S. if GDP stagnated for this long. 

We have had a persistent productivity gap versus the US of about 20% for a long time. If we were able to fix that our quality of life would improve pretty significantly. The problem is that most people don’t want to abandon our more generous social safety net and the tradeoffs inherent in a more US style system. I can sympathize since there is more to life than GDP.

 

One thing to watch out for in all this analysis is everyone is using per capita figures. It would be interesting to look at the figures keeping population constant - there is generally a long lag between people immigrating and embedding fully in the economy. Canada has also let in much more migration relative to its size than the US. Not sure the picture will be much prettier though.

Edited November 23, 2025 by Spooky

[Spekulatius]

21 hours ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

 

The thing about Trump is he doesn't mind causing chaos to advance his goals. The document certainly got the attention of the world (Ukraine, European leaders, etc) to mobilize and come up with a counter-document, did it not ? A lot of people freaked out and it forced them into a sense of urgency and now an end to the war is seriously being discussed

 

It's best not to get too riled up with Trump's moves (as was seen on social media and threads like this one) because it is liable to give you whiplash

 

Now whether Putin accepts the new terms is a big question mark, but Trump's move last week did get people moving quickly...

 

Putin is not going to accept anything until it meet all this goals which means that the whole war is going to continue. 
 

Trump may not have all that much leverage over Ukraine. Sure, the intelligence sharing is important but the location of refineries and oil pipelines is well known - you can pull it from Google maps. So they can continues to destroy those. The weapons are nowadays paid for by Europeans so if US stops deliveries, then The US defense contractors will lose some business and the Europeans can eventually sell more. 
 

So for investing, I think some US defense contractors may lose some business and European or Korean defense companies probably will gain business. Note that this will probably also hurt the US defense industries export business long term.

Edited November 24, 2025 by Spekulatius

[John Hjorth]

35 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Putin is not going to accept anything until it meet all this goals which means that the whole war is going to continue. 
 

Trump may not have all that much leverage over Ukraine. Sure, the intelligence sharing is imports but the location of refineries and oil pipelines is well know - you can pull it from Google maps. So they can continues to destroy those. The weapons are nowadays paid for by Europeans so if US stops deliveries, then The US defense contractors will lose some business and the Europeans can eventually sell more. 
 

So for investing, I think some US defense contractors may lose some business and European or Korean defense companies probably will gain business. Note that this will probably also hurt the US defense industries export business long term.

 

This., +1, wholeheartedly, in all details and shades and nuances, shared here by @Spekulatius.

 

To me personally, it's razor sharp, with nuances and shades shared here, dead head-on.

[Dalal.Holdings]

2 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

Your suggestion that this was a bluff by Trump to get Europe involved is ridiculous!  Cheers!

 

Trump wants the war to end. By doing something that freaks out the Europeans, he has created a sense of urgency that forces them to come up with a plan (which they have been furiously working on the past few days and clouded their G20 summit).

 

Leaders like Trump are proactive while the leaders of Europe are reactive. Just the way the world works these days.

[Dalal.Holdings]

48 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Putin is not going to accept anything until it meet all this goals which means that the whole war is going to continue. 
 

Trump may not have all that much leverage over Ukraine. Sure, the intelligence sharing is imports but the location of refineries and oil pipelines is well know - you can pull it from Google maps. So they can continues to destroy those. The weapons are nowadays paid for by Europeans so if US stops deliveries, then The US defense contractors will lose some business and the Europeans can eventually sell more. 
 

So for investing, I think some US defense contractors may lose some business and European or Korean defense companies probably will gain business. Note that this will probably also hurt the US defense industries export business long term.

 

I think this is clear and one of the key ways I am positioned. I think that Putin and Trump (and Vance) are the catalysts that will push Europe to build up their military capabilities to be less and less dependent on the U.S. (incl U.S. defense contractors).

 

Now, I could still be wrong and the Europeans just go back to doing nothing by force of habit. We'll see... 

 

As to whether Trump has leverage over Ukraine--if he does not and the U.S. stops supporting them and they go on fighting without the U.S., then Europe will have to step in in a much bigger and faster way which means the European defense super-cycle gets juiced even harder

 

Edited November 23, 2025 by Dalal.Holdings

[John Hjorth]

Anders Puck Nielsen, on Youtube a couple of days ago, still remembering, he is a 'military brain' :

 

YouTube : Anders Puck Nielsen [November 22^nd 2025] : Trump's ultimatum and the limits of US leverage over Ukraine

 

 

 

 

[Parsad]

2 hours ago, Junior R said:

 

 

That sounds good in theory, but his industrial carbon taxes destroy Canada's competitiveness. Those taxes drive up the cost of producing oil and LNG, which undermines the very revenue source that will fund the green transition.

He needs to drop the green mindset to bring in those dollars first. Once the revenue is actually flowing, then he can reintroduce those goal, but trying to force the green agenda right now puts the cart before the horse.

 

That only destroys the Canadian oil markets competitiveness when the price per barrel of oil is at or below production cost.  Otherwise it has negligible effect because the demand is there when prices are high.  The carbon taxes aren't the sole problem...the Canadian oil industry needs to continue to get their production cost lower.

 

If the car we build in Canada does tremendous damage to the environment, so environmental taxes on that car make it less competitive against cars built in the U.S. where the environmental impact isn't as bad, then should Canada really be producing cars?  Industry cannot escape non-tangible costs...there is a real cost long-term.

 

The reason the oil sands have any value today, is because the producers were able to drive the cost of production down over the last 30 years.  In particular in the last 10 years, they've driven the cost down from almost $80 a barrel to less than $50.  Cheers!   

[Parsad]

3 minutes ago, TB said:

Canada is experiencing capital flight and not investment, the trend is continuing in 2025

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250430/cg-b004-eng.htm

 

In addition, in the next five years US growth is expected to outpace Canada's - according to Atlanta Fed, US GDP in Q3 is expected to be 4.2% and many expecting the growth to hit up to 5% next year.

 

 

 

 

 

That stats you keep putting up are somewhat irrelevant...what is the motive behind this?

 

If U.S. growth is going to be greater than Canada's, then isn't it wiser that Canada invest more in the United States.  It's why more assets in Canadian pension/retirement funds are invested in U.S. and global assets than solely in Canada. 

 

Cheers!

[Parsad]

25 minutes ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

 

Trump wants the war to end. By doing something that freaks out the Europeans, he has created a sense of urgency that forces them to come up with a plan (which they have been furiously working on the past few days and clouded their G20 summit).

 

Leaders like Trump are proactive while the leaders of Europe are reactive. Just the way the world works these days.

 

I said from the beginning that the only way this ends is with Putin getting what he wants...here we are, years later, and that is exactly what is happening.  Why didn't Trump pull this card when he was busy berating Zelenskyy for his apparel?  Putin will get 90% of what he wants and Trump will get economic benefits, both personally and for the U.S., at the expense of Ukrainian people.  Cheers!

[Spekulatius]

49 minutes ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

 

I think this is clear and one of the key ways I am positioned. I think that Putin and Trump (and Vance) are the catalysts that will push Europe to build up their military capabilities to be less and less dependent on the U.S. (incl U.S. defense contractors).

 

Now, I could still be wrong and the Europeans just go back to doing nothing by force of habit. We'll see... 

 

As to whether Trump has leverage over Ukraine--if he does not and the U.S. stops supporting them and they go on fighting without the U.S., then Europe will have to step in in a much bigger and faster way which means the European defense super-cycle gets juiced even harder

 

Note that the implication is also that NATO ceases to exist. Trump’s language that he mediates between NATO and Russia , calls the shots if security guarantees get enacted (without  the US being part of those ) makes it clear that he does not see the USA as part of NATO which is really the takeaway for the Europeans. 
 

It’s sort of a typical Trump proposal with ridiculous ask and giving nothing.

Edited November 24, 2025 by Spekulatius

[Dalal.Holdings]

19 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

I said from the beginning that the only way this ends is with Putin getting what he wants...here we are, years later, and that is exactly what is happening.  Why didn't Trump pull this card when he was busy berating Zelenskyy for his apparel?  Putin will get 90% of what he wants and Trump will get economic benefits, both personally and for the U.S., at the expense of Ukrainian people.  Cheers!

 

Again...there is a missing party here. Europe could simply step in and say "Thank you for your help, Donald. We'll take it from here and back Ukraine in its fight"...but strangely that is not really something that is being proposed by Ursula, Friedrich, Emmanuel, or Kier...