Political Posts

[Spekulatius]

9 minutes ago, Paarslaars said:

Yeah many applications have the option to switch to GaAs or Si instead of Ge.

 

But you are confirming my suspicion, China will go to war on this, hard...

Which means Trump won't back down and keep retaliating.

Political risk just got waaay bigger for China stocks.

 

Gallium is way more expensive than Ge and is also covered in the export control.  China has a 98% market share for Gallium according to some sources.

I am not sure what super hard materials are included in the export control order. I think they have strong positions in synthetic diamond, sapphire or maybe the carbide metals like Tungsten.

 

Might be a good time to start a thread on this.

 

By the way, export control is pretty much an export ban in practical terms.

[Luke]

1 minute ago, Paarslaars said:

Waiting for the market to open.

How big are your losses and holdings? Good luck.

[WFF]

3 minutes ago, Luke said:

How can anyone take JD Vance and this Administration seriously? Calling Chinese peasants on live TV, wow. How lower can they go?

Off the top of my head,  I wonder if there are businesses that will be affected.  If China export to the US plummets, all this over production will either go domestic and/or flood some other markets. Should be good for Temu/Ali express ex-US.   Maybe this will benefit PDD?

[Paarslaars]

Just now, Luke said:

How big are your losses and holdings? Good luck.

This was originally a 10% position for me. Only about 1/3th of it left...

 

6 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Gallium is way more expensive than Ge and is also covered in the export control.  China has a 98% market share for Gallium according to some sources.

I am not sure what super hard materials are included in the export control order. I think they have strong positions in synthetic diamond, sapphire or maybe the carbide metals like Tungsten.

 

Might be a good time to start a thread on this.

 

By the way, export control is pretty much an export ban in practical terms.

 

There might be a ban on export but that doesn't stop all chinese exporters though.

[John Hjorth]

8 minutes ago, WFF said:

And JD Vance just insulted China… calling them “peasants”.  China ain’t backing down either. The question is whether each side will continue escalating.  Presently, the ball is in Trump’s court, will he deliver the incremental 50% tariffs?  There must be a point where it doesn’t really matter anymore and other actions will be more impactful no?

 

Ref. @WFF above,

 

Here we go :

 

 

and :

 

 

 

JD Vance is just such a screw-up here. It's head-shaking stupid, and counterproductive. Like the insults against the Greenlandic people.

[Spekulatius]

8 minutes ago, WFF said:

And JD Vance just insulted China… calling them “peasants”.  China ain’t backing down either. The question is whether each side will continue escalating.  Presently, the ball is in Trump’s court, will he deliver the incremental 50% tariffs?  There must be a point where it doesn’t really matter anymore and other actions will be more impactful no?

I don’t think any incremental tariff will matter all that much for China and that’s what they figured. I wonder when Trump and his team figure that out too - probably fairly soon.

 

I agree the risk with China and Chinese stocks went up quite a bit. Also keep in mind the Taiwan blockade exercise pretty much occurred at the same time that Trump announced his Liberation day. That was already a middle finger.

[WFF]

3 minutes ago, Paarslaars said:

This was originally a 10% position for me. Only about 1/3th of it left...

 

 

There might be a ban on export but that doesn't stop all chinese exporters though.

What do you own in China, if you don’t mind me asking?  If it is like Tencent, all this tariffs is just noise,  heck the sell off is good because the company can buy back more stock (I think like 35% higher to 1.35 million shares).  Wouldn’t the sell off be an  opportunity to add?

[Luke]

1 minute ago, Spekulatius said:

I don’t think any incremental tariff will matter all that much for China and that’s what they figured. I wonder when Trump and his team figure that out too - probably fairly soon.

 

I agree the risk with China and Chinese stocks went up quite a bit. Also keep in mind the Taiwan blockade exercise pretty much occurred at the same time that Trump announced his Liberation day. That was already a middle finger.

Yeah, anything can happen now. There are no rules for trump, he will try to pull as many levers as he can get, banning chinese stocks from trading etc just a tiny one of them. And yeah, when the US is suffering from no China goods while they also have ruined their international relations it might be the perfect time to go for taiwan and risk a war against the US where trade and relations are ruined anyways. All developing into a very hot environment right now.

[WFF]

1 minute ago, Luke said:

Yeah, anything can happen now. There are no rules for trump, he will try to pull as many levers as he can get, banning chinese stocks from trading etc just a tiny one of them. And yeah, when the US is suffering from no China goods while they also have ruined their international relations it might be the perfect time to go for taiwan and risk a war against the US where trade and relations are ruined anyways. All developing into a very hot environment right now.

Convert to H-shares or buy H-shares, shouldn’t that suffice if there is a delisting exercise like they did with China Mobile a couple of years ago?

[Paarslaars]

Just now, WFF said:

What do you own in China, if you don’t mind me asking?  If it is like Tencent, all this tariffs is just noise,  heck the sell off is good because the company can buy back more stock (I think like 35% higher to 1.35 million shares).  Wouldn’t the sell off be an  opportunity to add?

 

I am sure the companies(JD, PDD,..) will be fine in the long run, just not within the expiration date of the calls I'm holding.

That's the risk you take with options...

 

[WFF]

11 minutes ago, Paarslaars said:

 

I am sure the companies(JD, PDD,..) will be fine in the long run, just not within the expiration date of the calls I'm holding.

That's the risk you take with options...

 

Got it.  Thanks for sharing. 

[Luke]

26 minutes ago, WFF said:

Convert to H-shares or buy H-shares, shouldn’t that suffice if there is a delisting exercise like they did with China Mobile a couple of years ago?

yeah but maybe brokers wont be able to trade hongkong too, thats where the risks lies and i could imagine trump pulling every lever. if their vice president calls chinese peasants on live tv then anything can happen now.

[Gamecock-YT]

 

 

[Mephistopheles]

As I’ve said before. Vance and these other ass kissers are such tools. Chinese peasants?? He’s clearly trying to be mean in a Trumpian way but it’s so cringeworthy because only Trump can be Trump. God what a loser

[mcliu]

 

[John Hjorth]

11 minutes ago, Mephistopheles said:

As I’ve said before. Vance and these other ass kissers are such tools. Chinese peasants?? He’s clearly trying to be mean in a Trumpian way but it’s so cringeworthy because only Trump can be Trump. God what a loser

 

@Mephistopheles,

 

Yes, unfortunately, it is :

 

1. Lack of diplomatic and personal social skills,

 

combined with

 

2. Total ignorance related to Chineese culture and Chrineese business culture.

[dwy000]

3 hours ago, mattee2264 said:

Trump's plan is that if he taxes foreigners via tariffs he can fund tax cuts for wealthy Americans without increasing the budget deficit.

And meanwhile through cutting perceived wasteful government spending via DOGE reduce the fiscal deficit and get long term interest rates down. Then there is the longer term aspect of national security and protecting domestic industry and encouraging domestic investment in manufacturing etc.

 

I think it is naive to think that Trump will abandon all of this and scrap his policies completely and even watered down their total impact will be negative for the US economy and stock market and the policy uncertainty is also killer. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

He's not taxing foreigners thru tariffs. He's taxing Americans.

[cubsfan]

42 minutes ago, Mephistopheles said:

As I’ve said before. Vance and these other ass kissers are such tools. Chinese peasants?? He’s clearly trying to be mean in a Trumpian way but it’s so cringeworthy because only Trump can be Trump. God what a loser

 

I actually didn't realize the Chinese didn't have peasants. At least the regime doesn't call them names, thank goodness!

 

Let's not get into the Uyghurs and other Muslim minorities slave labor camps.

[dwy000]

46 minutes ago, Mephistopheles said:

As I’ve said before. Vance and these other ass kissers are such tools. Chinese peasants?? He’s clearly trying to be mean in a Trumpian way but it’s so cringeworthy because only Trump can be Trump. God what a loser

This idea that Chinese are peasants working for $2 in factories is so dated.  If you've been to Chinese factories they are some of the most modern and efficient anywhere in the world. There's a reason most of the labor intensive factory work (eg textiles, shoes, etc) have moved to Vietnam and Malaysia - because it's cheaper and because China is moving up the manufacturing curve.  They've spent the last 10-15 years investing in research, technology and education.  They dont need to steal IP anymore, they create it.  Look at the cars they're producing today - way better and cheaper than anywhere else.  

 

And going full tariff and isolationism is never, ever going to move the world backward and make the US more competitive, just the opposite. Onshoring the manufacturing of cheap crap and cutting research spend makes China the clear winner of this fight globally. It's no wonder they're willing to play hardball.  Their leaders can take lots of short term pain for the long term gains. 

[mcliu]

1 hour ago, Mephistopheles said:

As I’ve said before. Vance and these other ass kissers are such tools. Chinese peasants?? He’s clearly trying to be mean in a Trumpian way but it’s so cringeworthy because only Trump can be Trump. God what a loser

This might be one of those lost in translation misunderstandings right?

 

I think a majority of the factory workers 10 or 20 years ago  were what's called 农民工 in China.

Which translates to farm worker or peasant worker. They had rural hukous (registration) but worked in the urban areas.

The term is pretty widely used: 

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02723638.2023.2278959

https://research.nus.edu.sg/eai/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/09/EAIBB-No.-1785-Chinas-peasant-workers_post-COVID-trends-synopsis_exsum-1.pdf

Today, most Chinese would be considered middle class though but there are still hundreds of millions that can be considered peasant workers.

 

I think in the West, the word peasant has somewhat negative connotations..

 

5 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

This idea that Chinese are peasants working for $2 in factories is so dated.  If you've been to Chinese factories they are some of the most modern and efficient anywhere in the world. There's a reason most of the labor intensive factory work (eg textiles, shoes, etc) have moved to Vietnam and Malaysia - because it's cheaper and because China is moving up the manufacturing curve.  They've spent the last 10-15 years investing in research, technology and education.  They dont need to steal IP anymore, they create it.  Look at the cars they're producing today - way better and cheaper than anywhere else.  

I think there's a mix. There's still considerable low-value production but labour costs are multiples that of SE Asia but that's offset by supply chain and infrastructure advantages. But China also has the world's largest base of advanced and automated manufacturing. This is the kind of manufacturing that you want to onshore from China.. But other than tariffs, what else can do you do?

Edited April 8, 2025 by mcliu

[cubsfan]

5 minutes ago, mcliu said:

I think in the West, the word peasant has somewhat negative connotations..

 

Exactly right. This board will turn it into "insults" due to their hatred of the administration.

When it's actually used as a term for the compassion of the downtrodden & unfortunate.

[dwy000]

2 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

Exactly right. This board will turn it into "insults" due to their hatred of the administration.

When it's actually used as a term for the compassion of the downtrodden & unfortunate.

The word was used by JD Vance (who literally wrote a book about hillbillies).  Who are we tryi g to kid? He meant it as derogatory not compassionate. The spin is dizzying. 

[Luke]

17 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

This idea that Chinese are peasants working for $2 in factories is so dated.  If you've been to Chinese factories they are some of the most modern and efficient anywhere in the world. There's a reason most of the labor intensive factory work (eg textiles, shoes, etc) have moved to Vietnam and Malaysia - because it's cheaper and because China is moving up the manufacturing curve.  They've spent the last 10-15 years investing in research, technology and education.  They dont need to steal IP anymore, they create it.  Look at the cars they're producing today - way better and cheaper than anywhere else.  

 

And going full tariff and isolationism is never, ever going to move the world backward and make the US more competitive, just the opposite. Onshoring the manufacturing of cheap crap and cutting research spend makes China the clear winner of this fight globally. It's no wonder they're willing to play hardball.  Their leaders can take lots of short term pain for the long term gains. 

Yeah, exactly how i see it frankly.

 

1 hour ago, Gamecock-YT said:

 

 

Absolutely brutal, thanks for sharing.

[Pelagic]

10 hours ago, LC said:

 

I wonder if we will see a change in strategy from Ukraine - if the Russian oil apparatus just became less valuable, does Ukraine find other targets for its missiles?

 

One twitter user put a ton of effort into this map of the Russian electric grid, a target Ukraine has largely avoided striking as a lot of it is seen as dual use civilian-military. Even if you know nothing about the Russo-Ukraine War, I think it's one of the better uses of Google My Maps I've come across. 

 

https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1ChqgfwK4x7rwMyWnHzgb6erBxfujbwM&hl=en&ll=54.52511158894112%2C35.01631581445057&z=5

[LC]

@Pelagic That is really amazing. Very cool how they added metadata for each asset (e.g. estimated value) and the shading by range...thanks for sharing.