Political Posts

[Red Lion]

1 minute ago, Spooky said:

 

Agree. The US has the biggest, best and most dynamic economy in the world. But even it can't take on the whole world at once and isolate themselves completely.

 

If China is the main issue here, it would have been much easier to get Europe/Canada/SE Asia on board to match our tariffs rather than going to war with the whole world. 

[mcliu]

3 minutes ago, Red Lion said:

 

If China is the main issue here, it would have been much easier to get Europe/Canada/SE Asia on board to match our tariffs rather than going to war with the whole world. 

Most likely this is where it'll end up. US allies will have very low tariffs but US companies will get better market access. Non-allied countries will have higher tariffs. Certain national security and critical industries will have higher tariffs.

[Blake Hampton]

This is madness

[John Hjorth]

14 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Yea. It’s why I prefer the “sucking up to dictators” route. Because Trump and China operate the same way. We will see 50% increases of tariffs to infinity because both use the same little man “can’t back down” approach to everything. 
 

Same as why it’s much more preferable if he and Kim Jong talk hoops and him and Putin wanna make fun of Obama together…much rather have that than a game of “my nukes are bigger”. 

 

What is likely not understood by your POTUS, is that this is about the worst insult against the ruling leader of CCP, one can imagine, making Xi now really dig in the heals!

[villainx]

1 hour ago, Parsad said:

 

That being said, nothing changes policy faster than being wrong!  Cheers!

 

https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/06/health/measles-texas-second-child-dies/index.html

 

The thing supposedly in the headline suggesting a quoted statement, I don't see anywhere in the article.  

 

[LC]

Trump posted that "if China does not withdraw its 34% increase above their already long term trading abuses by tomorrow, April 8th, 2025, the United States will impose ADDITIONAL Tariffs on China of 50%, effective April 9th. Additionally, all talks with China concerning their requested meetings with us will be terminated! Negotiations with other countries, which have also requested meetings, will begin taking place immediately."

Art of the deal, baby!

[sleepydragon]

1 minute ago, LC said:

Trump posted that "if China does not withdraw its 34% increase above their already long term trading abuses by tomorrow, April 8th, 2025, the United States will impose ADDITIONAL Tariffs on China of 50%, effective April 9th. Additionally, all talks with China concerning their requested meetings with us will be terminated! Negotiations with other countries, which have also requested meetings, will begin taking place immediately."

Art of the deal, baby!

they locked down an entire city and burned body during covid. Trump thinks Xi will blink? 

[dwy000]

2 minutes ago, sleepydragon said:

they locked down an entire city and burned body during covid. Trump thinks Xi will blink? 

If Xi doesn't back down he might not get re-elected. 

[dwy000]

47 minutes ago, mcliu said:

 

The increase might be far less than that. Imagine $100 shoes, with a cost of $20.. a 50% tariff increases costs to $30. However, due to excess capacity, that tariff difference is split between importer and manufacturer. So you end up with a cost of $25 and a final price of $105 at 50% tariffs. But most tariffs are only at 10%. 

 

So it's entirely possible that the tariffs might be deflationary if it affects aggregate demand. Consider energy prices which have declined 15%. That's on $2T/yr energy expenditure for the US and is an input in essentially everything.

It's not really the dollar amount per se, it's the uncertainty. The $ amounts you reference were potentially just doubled in the last 10 minutes. 

[mcliu]

3 minutes ago, sleepydragon said:

they locked down an entire city and burned body during covid. Trump thinks Xi will blink? 

Isn't China facing some pretty severe economic issues? Housing bubble, overcapacity, low FDI, youth unemployment, aging demographics etc etc?

[sleepydragon]

1 minute ago, mcliu said:

Isn't China facing some pretty severe economic issues? Housing bubble, overcapacity, low FDI, youth unemployment, aging demographics etc etc?

Yeah, same as north korea

[sleepydragon]

3 minutes ago, mcliu said:

Isn't China facing some pretty severe economic issues? Housing bubble, overcapacity, low FDI, youth unemployment, aging demographics etc etc?

And now can blame all these on American capitalism 

[mcliu]

17 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

It's not really the dollar amount per se, it's the uncertainty. The $ amounts you reference were potentially just doubled in the last 10 minutes. 

Yeah I agree with you on that. Trump's way of doing foreign policy is insane, but I don't think the ultimate outcome will the as dire as people think.

 

11 minutes ago, sleepydragon said:

And now can blame all these on American capitalism 

Don't they blame covid on the US too? 

[Castanza]

50 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Well, it’s true. He’s just not counting the other 75-80m of the worst. Realistically only the top 10% or so should have meaningful say in anything but it’s not like that which is why politics have devolved into a game of bribe the plebs. 

 

Sure, I agree to an extent (bread & circuses), but as imperfect as our system is, I'm not sure putting a net worth requirement on voting rights makes sense. 

 

54 minutes ago, LC said:

A low blow, admittedly

 

But ya know, if our dear leader can toy with the livelihoods of 400mm people without clear reason, planning, or communication (and people will still defend him) - I wouldn't expect anyone to get upset about being called out on voting for it!

 

Sure, but aren't you above the "mUH SiDe iS BeTTeReR" rhetoric? Trump (Clinton) -> Biden (Trump) -> Trump(Biden/Kamala) is a symptom of the broken system imo. 12 years of crooks, swindlers, liars, cheats, and cock suckers running for POTUS can't make it any more clear imo.  

[Intelligent_Investor]

34 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

What is likely not understood by your POTUS, is that this is about the worst insult against the ruling leader of CCP, one can imagine, making Xi now really dig in the heals!

The issue is that 99% of western politicians don't understand the Chinese concept of "face" which has governed all Chinese social interactions, including diplomacy for thousands of years. This creates a fundamental misunderstanding of what it takes to and how to negotiate with China over various issues. China will not respond well to hardline diplomacy that does not allow them to maintain "face".

[Gregmal]

4 minutes ago, Intelligent_Investor said:

The issue is that 99% of western politicians don't understand the Chinese concept of "face" which has governed all Chinese social interactions, including diplomacy for thousands of years. This creates a fundamental misunderstanding of what it takes to and how to negotiate with China over various issues. China will not respond well to hardline diplomacy that does not allow them to maintain "face".

Yup, same with Russia. Resolution is found through both sides walking away with victories. Not public gladiator fights. 

[LC]

11 minutes ago, Castanza said:

Sure, but aren't you above the "mUH SiDe iS BeTTeReR" rhetoric? Trump (Clinton) -> Biden (Trump) -> Trump(Biden/Kamala) is a symptom of the broken system imo. 12 years of crooks, swindlers, liars, cheats, and cock suckers running for POTUS can't make it any more clear imo.  

 

In this economy? I can't afford be above anything!

 

I'm being facetious but at some point there is a level of relativism here. At what point does political bullshit become too impactful to ignore?

 

I think it was easy to hand-waive Biden receiving $20MM from Romania/China/Ukraine. Because it's $20 mill.

(I don't even know how factual this is, just accepting as truth for argument's sake:

https://oversight.house.gov/the-bidens-influence-peddling-timeline/)

 

It's more difficult to ignore the last few weeks of global economic chaos and trillions of lost value.

[Paarslaars]

19 minutes ago, Intelligent_Investor said:

The issue is that 99% of western politicians don't understand the Chinese concept of "face" which has governed all Chinese social interactions, including diplomacy for thousands of years. This creates a fundamental misunderstanding of what it takes to and how to negotiate with China over various issues. China will not respond well to hardline diplomacy that does not allow them to maintain "face".

True, the only way to negotiate with the chinese is taking them drinking.

[Castanza]

4 minutes ago, LC said:

 

In this economy? I can't afford be above anything!

 

I'm being facetious but at some point there is a level of relativism here. At what point does political bullshit become too impactful to ignore?

 

I think it was easy to hand-waive Biden receiving $20MM from Romania/China/Ukraine. Because it's $20 mill.

(I don't even know how factual this is, just accepting as truth for argument's sake:

https://oversight.house.gov/the-bidens-influence-peddling-timeline/)

 

It's more difficult to ignore the last few weeks of global economic chaos and trillions of lost value.

I didn’t vote for either his last election and I didn’t vote for either the previous election. So I will shout from my ivory tower. 
 

Right now we are dealing with bizarre undescriminate tariffs calculated by some kid running a lemonade stand. 
 

If the election went the other way, we could be looking at wealth taxes, unrealized gain taxes, much higher corporate taxes etc. 

 

Which is worse short term and which is worse long term? I think it’s fair to say they are both terrible precedents with negative near and longterm outcomes. Both have escalation clauses of unknown proportions. 
 

Looking across the aisle isn’t much different than looking in a mirror. Just my two cents.

[Sweet]

27 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Yup, same with Russia. Resolution is found through both sides walking away with victories. Not public gladiator fights. 

Genuinely not sure Trump wants trade with China.  Yes lots comes from China right now, but supply chains can shift over time.  

[Pelagic]

Chinese Embassy posting Reagan's anti-tariff speech which has gotten a lot of play of late. Likely just a savvy PR team on their part hoping to splinter off some Republicans, but imagine if Reagan were still alive to see it.  

 

 

 

[Spekulatius]

2 hours ago, no_free_lunch said:

I have no idea the amounts.  What does it matter, are we really debating there are counter tarriffs from our own government?  My point is simply that we are all being hypocrites and ignoring that everyone in the world is doing the same thing but only the US gets called out.

 

What I would like is to align with the US, kick China away and build trade around that alliance.

Counter tariffs are viable action In a tit for tat game theory game. It encourages others to

do likewise against the US.  If every trade partner does counter tariffs to the US it’s the US versus the rest of the world. All of the sudden the biggest bully is not that big any more.
 

The US become a trade island of sorts. In a way that’s the only way the US get balanced on trade because I doubt that US exports will go up much.

[LC]

21 minutes ago, Castanza said:

If the election went the other way, we could be looking at wealth taxes, unrealized gain taxes, much higher corporate taxes etc. 

 

Not sure I agree. Actual taxes are under congressional power. Which ironically may be blue-leaning in 2 years. Kamala alone wouldn't have been able to enact a wealth or unrealized gain tax, for example. Even if she wanted to (which I am not sure she did)

 

There is some good context here on political control over tariffs and taxes:

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/why-does-the-executive-branch-have-so-much-power-over-tariffs/

[Paarslaars]

 

Oh boy... My poor PDD/JD leaps.

[changegonnacome]

4 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

If every trade partner does counter tariffs to the US it’s the US versus the rest of the world. All of the sudden the biggest bully is not that big any more.

 

Agree - every competent authority has done their homework....they (the EU, Chinese et al).....know the congressional swing districts supported by export oriented firms or States meeting the same maximum pain criteria......when the surgical countertariffs come it will look like the EU, Chinese etc. are working in unison.....but they aren't ......they simply know how to do math (unlike Captain Chaos) and they know how the Hill works.

 

Again its another reason why Captain Chaos's Rose Garden tariff gameshow was outrageously dumb.........cause big picture its beyond dumb to line up a bunch of sovereign trade war enemies at the EXACT same time. Its a strategic mistake amongst a rogues gallery of mistakes.