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wescobrk

By wescobrk
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Viking
Viking

I think China is an important player in the war. China’s support of Russia is already accelerating the West’s move away from China. I am not sure China wants the West to accelerate its pivot even furt

Viking
Viking

The incredibly high living standard the US enjoys today is largely the result of the global world order it imposed/built/lead after world war II (with, of course, lots of help along the way from other

Xerxes
Xerxes

In 1946, United States reigned supreme militarily and economically, relative to the rest of the world.    today in absolute sense, United States is far better place economically that it was in

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Sweet Grand Master

Sweet

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, Gregmal said:

2025 everyone’s an expert on tariffs, a mind reader and also smarter than everyone in the WH

Lol, the bar is low in 2025 though.

Sweet Grand Master

Sweet

Posted
Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, Xerxes said:


 

 


That’s my view too.  I admit to liking old Jim, even if he does have a famous (albeit much exaggerated) curse, directionally his optimism has usually been right.
 

It’s not just America, the same crap has happened in Europe too.  Whole place has deindustrialised.  Fair trade not free trade - agree.

 

I also agree with Jim that this can be fixed, and I think it will be fixed over time.  It’s so retarded that it really can only be improved.


 

Edited by Sweet
Spekulatius Grand Master

Spekulatius

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, Buckeye said:

For sure some of this front running is/has been happening. So maybe it’s a one time gap up and then we stabilize? Or maybe prices come back a little once some of the dust settles? Will certainly be interesting to see. At least now that we’re finally into it, any de-escalation of the tariffs would be celebrated as huge win by the markets, so that’s one potential positive. 🙃

Yes, front running is part of it.  I really have no idea what is going to happen, but I think the economy in the near term and maybe medium term (1-2 year out) will be quite rough.

If I had a small business, I would put my belt and suspenders on now. Good luck!

 

What products does your business do and markets does your business serve? Some smaller business can do a great, if they can turn around products quickly and be easy to work with.

Spekulatius Grand Master

Spekulatius

Posted
Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, dwy000 said:

I think you're giving way too much credit to secondary and tertiary thinking.  Trump is just reactionary revenge.  Just look at how the numbers were calculated and you get some sense for the amount of thought that's gone into it. There's no strategy.  There's no master plan.  There's no 3D chess or even checkers.  Hes just eating the pieces because he think it makes him look powerful. 

Maybe so, but a lot of what is happening now is consistent with what Stephen Miran has been writing and I think it makes sense to read what he has written. I think he is the key figure/ mastermind, not Bessent and Lutnick.

https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/638199_A_Users_Guide_to_Restructuring_the_Global_Trading_System.pdf

 

The key theme here is to bring the USD down. The USD also can’t be the reserve currency for the world any more, which is really related to the USD overvaluation. He claims it’s not inflationary , which I think will prove to be wrong, but what do I know.

 

We are witnessing here a total remake of the world trade financial system, similar 1971 (abandoned gold standard). If correct, there will be a lot of turmoil.

Edited by Spekulatius
Luke Grand Master

Luke

Posted
Posted (edited)
36 minutes ago, Paarslaars said:

China imposes 34% trade tariffs on the US.

 

Let the war begin...

They can absorb these tariffs way easier than the US can...

 

Insane what's happening, markets crashing. Thanks Trump!

 

Lost a lot of net worth the last week thanks to the genius.

Edited by Luke
Luke Grand Master

Luke

Posted
Posted

that was the end of free trade for US exports. Just wait until semiconductors will get the tariffs and multiples contract everywhere. I think now its a good time to enter shorts frankly.

Luke Grand Master

Luke

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Paarslaars said:

Hope you're right, premarket china is not looking pretty.

What does china need from the US they can not produce themselves and vice versa? Its simple. I think china has way more negotiating power and trump looks like a madman here which is astounding since i have never imagine he would pull something so much in his disadvantage than this.

 

Did his family and friends all load up on shorts and insider trading before this, and he uses this crash as his piggy bank?

 

 

Luke Grand Master

Luke

Posted
Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, dwy000 said:

I think you're giving way too much credit to secondary and tertiary thinking.  Trump is just reactionary revenge.  Just look at how the numbers were calculated and you get some sense for the amount of thought that's gone into it. There's no strategy.  There's no master plan.  There's no 3D chess or even checkers.  Hes just eating the pieces because he think it makes him look powerful. 

Yeah its deeply concerning. I think globally every political leadership is stunned right now because this came so unexpected and unprofessionally haha. What once was the godfather that was always asked on advice now backstabs the entire world and distorting trade on a level that hasnt been around in our lifetimes...

 

I really feel like an idiot having cheered for Trump leading to more international stability haha.

 

In the end he was just voted in because establishment did a bad job but now he looks even worse than the bad establishment.

 

Remember that trump saw himself as "the stock market guy" (thiss is the trump bull market tesluurrr) and the "lower prices" guy...well well. the exact opposite now happening.

Edited by Luke
dealraker Veteran

dealraker

Posted
Posted

As I mentioned on COBF earlier, there will be "jolts down" in the market and raising cash was rational.  Yesterday I watched Peter Navarro, I'd thought The Donald was the dumbest creature on earth but I've found one even more stupid.

 

We are in for some serious fun in the US of A.  Enjoy the ride.  Tariffs are just a small beginning, there's so much more disruption coming.  And all of us wanted disruption didn't we?

 

Life is great...if you can stand it.

Luke Grand Master

Luke

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, dealraker said:

Tariffs are just a small beginning, there's so much more disruption coming.  And all of us wanted disruption didn't we?

 

Life is great...if you can stand it.

Yeah, right now my portfolio is getting hardcore disrupted.

Luke Grand Master

Luke

Posted
Posted

I feel very sorry for mohnish pabrai and his new wagon fund that gets total and full disruption on a new level. Trump becoming president again and tariffing every country on earth and distorting trade relations was not on the COAL is a four lettered word bear thesis list.

Sweet Grand Master

Sweet

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

Screenshot2025-04-04071017.png.d2cb1023b71b872ee71220946bfa1ee4.png


Lol, there was no way I was following anyone in oil companies, even the GOAT, after my misadventure.  It worked out well for me in the end, but barely.

Gregmal Grand Master

Gregmal

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

I'm surprised how bad oil is getting whacked right now. I'm still in love with the stuff but wow.

Not really. Everyone got fixated like Jewish housewives on the Signal drama…as I pointed out at the time, the most relevant takeaway from that was the talk around oil which made it very clear one of the main objectives right now is to crush oil prices. Saudis then get spared on tariffs and boom OPEC increased production. 

Spooky Mentor

Spooky

Posted
Posted
13 hours ago, Gregmal said:

All the hallmarks are starting to show. People boasting about their cash hoards. People(me included) touting their bonds, and the broken clocks doing victory laps! Might be time to buy soon. 

I'm already buying haha

73 Reds Grand Master

73 Reds

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, Eldad said:

Besides shutting down the whole economy in response to Covid and ballooning the debt beyond repair as a result. 
 

If ever there was a time for an outside of the box leader, it would have been the guy that said screw Covid. If you are old stay home, otherwise we are doing the Swedish model. 
 

Also, now that apparently every intelligence agency in the world agrees it was a lab leak; wouldn’t achieving the ends of this tariff stuff be much easier if Trump put together a worldwide coalition to punish China economically for that terrible mistake they burdened the world with? 

So Trump shut down the economy?  Not where I lived but that's a good one.  Shoulda/Woulda/Coulda is simply an excuse.  My recollection is the World was in panic and Trump did everything possible NOT to shut everything down.  

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