Fairfax 2022

[Thrifty3000]

6 hours ago, glider3834 said:

just thinking about impact on Fairfax bvps growth - if you take out the period 2011-2016 when they had their equity hedges on and work out compounded book value growth over 30 years (1986-2010 & then 2017-2021) you get around 22.2% CAGR excluding dividends, compared to actual 18.2% CAGR over the 36 years. And I think over 2017 to 2020 they still had some individual shorts running off.

People act almost like Fairfax lost money over the last decade. That’s not the case at all.

 

Because FFH’s results are “lumpy” I like to look at their earnings in 5 year averages.

 

In September of 2020 I pulled the average per share earnings for the 3 prior 5-year periods:

 

2005 - 2009 = $33 average EPS

2010 - 2014 = $17

2015 - 2019 = $28

 

Fairfax was trading for around $285 in September 2020 so I backed up that truck big time.

 

The average earnings for the 2020-2024 period is shaping up to be at least double that of the 2015-2019 period.

 

#bargain

[Xerxes]

Ok

@Candyman1

 

here is the statement from the letter, while doesn’t offer any clue as to when TRS will be liquidated it offers some clue on the perceived margin of safety it has, as seen from Watsa 

 

Edited March 23, 2022 by Xerxes

[glider3834]

I did this Chart (for convenience using only the Avg US 10 yr treasury yield not considering yield curve) - shows relationship between interest rates and Fairfax's pre-tax yield - interest & dividends. 

 

One thing that struck me was that interest income appears primary driver not dividend income 

 

 

sources

https://www.macrotrends.net/2016/10-year-treasury-bond-rate-yield-chart

https://www.fairfax.ca/financials/annual-reports

 

 

Edited March 24, 2022 by glider3834

[Viking]

On 3/21/2022 at 11:40 AM, Viking said:

Bond yields are spiking again today. Fairfax’s massive fixed income portfolio, with an average duration of 1.2 years, is looking better and better as interest rates continue to move higher.
 

Every time the Fed speaks it is a little more hawkish and the market then prices in incrementally more hawkish Fed policy. At the next meeting the Fed then simply follows though and ‘does’ what is then priced in the market. 7 rate hikes in 2022 was the example last week. Today the Fed opened the door to a 50 basis point increase at its next meeting in May. The market has now ‘priced in’ a 65% chance the Fed will move 50 basis points in May. Guess what is likely coming at the Fed meeting in May? Bottom line, the Fed appears firmly focussed on inflation and is taking every opportunity it is given to incrementally execute more hawkish interest rate policy. And they are just getting started. (They were still buying bonds a few short weeks ago. And last week was the first rate hike of 0.25%. Balance sheet run off has not started yet.)
 

The bond market has been COMPLETELY WRONG with how fast and how high yields have moved so far in 2022. The question is how high do yields (across the curve) go from here? And at what point does the equity market start to freak out.

 

Yields below are for US Treasuries. What about corporate bonds? I think spreads have been widening so far in 2022 for corporate bonds compared to Treasuries. This suggests to me that the increase in yields on corporate bonds should be more than what is listed below for Treasuries. Most insurance companies have significant holdings of corporate bonds.
 

                 2020.    2021.     2022.                                    Change

               Dec 31.  Dec31.   Jan 31.   Feb 28.    Mch 21.     YTD

 

3 mo.       .09.         .06.        .22.         .35.         .47.          + .41

6 mo.       .09.         .19.         .49.         .69.         .88.         + .69

1 yr.          .10.         .39.         .78.        1.01.        1.25.         + .86

2 yr.          .13.         .73.        1.18.        1.44.       2.10.        + 1.37

5 yr.          .36.       1.26.       1.62.        1.71.        2.31.       + 1.05

10 yr.        .93.       1.52.       1.79.        1.83.       2.30.         + .78

30 yr.      1.65.       1.90.       2.11.         2.17.        2.52.        + .62

 

The unprecedented spike in bonds yields the past couple of weeks has been breathtaking. Lots of insurers are going to be reporting pretty substantial mark to market losses on their bond investment portfolios. Fairfax’s bond portfolio was positioned almost perfectly Dec 31 (1.2 year avg duration). Q1 results are going to be super interesting:

1.) when does Fairfax start to add duration to its portfolio?

2.) how much of their fixed income portfolio will they re-deploy?

3.) how much does 1.) + 2.) above increase the interest & dividend income bucket?

4.) how much higher do interest rates go?

 

                 2020.    2021.     2022.                                        Change

               Dec 31.  Dec31.   Feb 28.    Mch 21.     Mch 25.    YTD

 

3 mo.       .09.         .06.        .35.         .47.            .52.          + .46

6 mo.       .09.         .19.         .69.         .88.           .98.          + .79

1 yr.          .10.         .39.        1.01.        1.25.         1.64.         + 1.25

2 yr.          .13.         .73.        1.44.       2.10.         2.27.         + 1.54

5 yr.          .36.       1.26.        1.71.        2.31.        2.54.         + 1.28

10 yr.        .93.       1.52.        1.83.       2.30.        2.47.          + .95

30 yr.      1.65.       1.90.        2.17.        2.52.        2.59.          + .69

Edited March 25, 2022 by Viking

[beerbaron]

17 hours ago, Viking said:

 

The unprecedented spike in bonds yields the past couple of weeks has been breathtaking. Lots of insurers are going to be reporting pretty substantial mark to market losses on their bond investment portfolios. Fairfax’s bond portfolio was positioned almost perfectly Dec 31 (1.2 year avg duration). Q1 results are going to be super interesting:

1.) when does Fairfax start to add duration to its portfolio?

2.) how much of their fixed income portfolio will they re-deploy?

3.) how much does 1.) + 2.) above increase the interest & dividend income bucket?

4.) how much higher do interest rates go?

 

                 2020.    2021.     2022.                                        Change

               Dec 31.  Dec31.   Feb 28.    Mch 21.     Mch 25.    YTD

 

3 mo.       .09.         .06.        .35.         .47.            .52.          + .46

6 mo.       .09.         .19.         .69.         .88.           .98.          + .79

1 yr.          .10.         .39.        1.01.        1.25.         1.64.         + 1.25

2 yr.          .13.         .73.        1.44.       2.10.         2.27.         + 1.54

5 yr.          .36.       1.26.        1.71.        2.31.        2.54.         + 1.28

10 yr.        .93.       1.52.        1.83.       2.30.        2.47.          + .95

30 yr.      1.65.       1.90.        2.17.        2.52.        2.59.          + .69

 

I don't think we will see any meaningful Mark To Market losses on insurers. Only bonds held for trading are marked to market. Fairfax is notorious for having a very large amount of bonds held for trading while other companies prefer to classify their bonds in the long term bond bucket. I much prefer Fairfax approach as it give real visibility on the changes in the company's value.

 

BeerBaron

[Thrifty3000]

19 hours ago, Viking said:

 

The unprecedented spike in bonds yields the past couple of weeks has been breathtaking. Lots of insurers are going to be reporting pretty substantial mark to market losses on their bond investment portfolios. Fairfax’s bond portfolio was positioned almost perfectly Dec 31 (1.2 year avg duration). Q1 results are going to be super interesting:

1.) when does Fairfax start to add duration to its portfolio?

2.) how much of their fixed income portfolio will they re-deploy?

3.) how much does 1.) + 2.) above increase the interest & dividend income bucket?

4.) how much higher do interest rates go?

 

                 2020.    2021.     2022.                                        Change

               Dec 31.  Dec31.   Feb 28.    Mch 21.     Mch 25.    YTD

 

3 mo.       .09.         .06.        .35.         .47.            .52.          + .46

6 mo.       .09.         .19.         .69.         .88.           .98.          + .79

1 yr.          .10.         .39.        1.01.        1.25.         1.64.         + 1.25

2 yr.          .13.         .73.        1.44.       2.10.         2.27.         + 1.54

5 yr.          .36.       1.26.        1.71.        2.31.        2.54.         + 1.28

10 yr.        .93.       1.52.        1.83.       2.30.        2.47.          + .95

30 yr.      1.65.       1.90.        2.17.        2.52.        2.59.          + .69

This would be a good question for Prem. What is the criteria for lengthening duration?

 

My guess is they want to lock in returns of at least a couple percentage points above long term expected inflation.

 

However, Prem is such a believer in markets regressing to long term averages that I could see him saying they’ll hold off on a major move until rates return to at least their long term historical norm.

 

So I could see them start lengthening duration as yields approach 4% and getting more aggressive as yields rise beyond 5%.

Edited March 26, 2022 by Thrifty3000

[Santayana]

What's really nice about the way the yield curve is moving is that they don't need to add a ton of duration to substantially increase the rates over what they've been getting the past couple of years.

[glider3834]

 

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/brett-girard-s-top-picks-march-25-2022-1.1743029

Edited March 28, 2022 by glider3834

[Cigarbutt]

Recently spglobal came out with this picture, regarding absolute top performers for reserve redundancy:

Fairfax, which is not US-listed on an exchange, did not make it to the list but they reported 355.6(USD,M) favorable development in operating subs in 2021.

For FFH however, one has to reasonably deduct the run-off component and, in 2021, overall net favorable reserve development was 124.1 (USD,M).

At any rate, FFH is now in good company with a durable conservative reserve redundancy profile. Overall for P&C (re)insurers in the US, 2021 will likely be the 16th year with net prior-year reserve releases, a situation not seen in modern times and likely to persist as the hard market is likely to kick in and to compensate for whatever possible relative adverse development from older years. This time is different?

Since 2017, FFH's trend in overall net favorable reserve development has matched the industry's trends:

2017: 454.6   2018: 580.4   2019: 329.1   2020: 322.3   2021: 124.1

 

[Viking]

Well Fairfax stock has certainly started the year well, up about 10% YTD. Pretty good outperformance compared to market averages. And Fairfax has been on fire the past 3 weeks up about 20% from its March low. Up +1% today in a market that was down 1.5%; pretty solid outperformance.

 

Why? As with all things Fairfax, not really sure. But i am wondering if big investors are starting to initiate new positions in Fairfax. It is poised very well for a rising rate environment. Perhaps Fairfax is buying back stock. 

—————

Trading today at US$545 (C$680) the stock is now trading back near its all time high price band. The stock has doubled over the past 18 months. 
 

This is not to suggest the stock is fully valued (or even close). But i would say the stock price is no longer stupid cheap. 
—————-

i did sell 1/3 of my position today to lock in some gains. I was way overweight and now i am back to what i consider a more normal core weighting. As we have all learned over the past 18 months Fairfax’s stock price often moves in rapid 20% swings (up and down). Getting back to a more normal size position will let me buy stock should we see another big sell off.

[gfp]

Fairfax has been up every day since Berkshire announced the Alleghany deal.  MKL has had a strong run as well, although I guess MKL's move started before Berkshire announced Y.

[TwoCitiesCapital]

25 minutes ago, Viking said:

Well Fairfax stock has certainly started the year well, up about 10% YTD. Pretty good outperformance compared to market averages. And Fairfax has been on fire the past 3 weeks up about 20% from its March low. Up +1% today in a market that was down 1.5%; pretty solid outperformance.

 

Why? As with all things Fairfax, not really sure. But i am wondering if big investors are starting to initiate new positions in Fairfax. It is poised very well for a rising rate environment. Perhaps Fairfax is buying back stock. 

—————

Trading today at US$545 (C$680) the stock is now trading back near its all time high price band. The stock has doubled over the past 18 months. 
 

This is not to suggest the stock is fully valued (or even close). But i would say the stock price is no longer stupid cheap. 
—————-

i did sell 1/3 of my position today to lock in some gains. I was way overweight and now i am back to what i consider a more normal core weighting. As we have all learned over the past 18 months Fairfax’s stock price often moves in rapid 20% swings (up and down). Getting back to a more normal size position will let me buy stock should we see another big sell off.

 

I think "stupid cheap" may not necessarily apply any longer, but still probably one of the cheapest things I own despite the relative performance. 

 

The book value and earnings potential are both growing at a healthy clip so the 20% rise in share price can be somewhat attributable to that. 

 

I'll consider small trims once we exceed $600 USD/share, but otherwise am content to watch this play out and hope that I'm wrong on their fixed income philosophy. 

[Viking]

14 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

I think "stupid cheap" may not necessarily apply any longer, but still probably one of the cheapest things I own despite the relative performance. 

 

The book value and earnings potential are both growing at a healthy clip so the 20% rise in share price can be somewhat attributable to that. 

 

I'll consider small trims once we exceed $600 USD/share, but otherwise am content to watch this play out and hope that I'm wrong on their fixed income philosophy. 

 

Q1 results for Fairfax will be super interesting:

1.) CR? Can they deliver a CR at 94 or even lower?

2.) cash and short term investments balance? Are they re-investing some of this at higher yields?

 

IF we get a CR below 94 and rising interest and dividend income then i will likely be pounding the table again that Fairfax is stupid cheap again  (despite the run up in shares).

—————

Part of my reason for selling 1/3 of my position in Fairfax earlier today is i also expect another sell off in the coming months in the overall market. I expect lots of companies to be on sale (regardless of where Fairfax trades).

Edited March 31, 2022 by Viking

[maxthetrade]

35 minutes ago, Viking said:

i did sell 1/3 of my position today to lock in some gains. I was way overweight and now i am back to what i consider a more normal core weighting. As we have all learned over the past 18 months Fairfax’s stock price often moves in rapid 20% swings (up and down). Getting back to a more normal size position will let me buy stock should we see another big sell off.

 

What do you consider a 'normal size position'? I'm still way overweight @ 25%. In some smaller accounts up to a 50% weighting.

Some things I've done recently: selling KMX and MMM naked puts,. Selling ATCO calls and buying common shares yesterday. 

 

[maxthetrade]

2 minutes ago, Viking said:

Q1 results for Fairfax will be super interesting:

1.) CR? Can they deliver a CR at 94 or even lower?

2.) cash and short term investments balance? Are they re-investing some of this at higher yields?

 

ad 1. very possible 

ad 2. I doubt it

[glider3834]

40 minutes ago, Viking said:

Q1 results for Fairfax will be super interesting:

1.) CR? Can they deliver a CR at 94 or even lower?

2.) cash and short term investments balance? Are they re-investing some of this at higher yields?

My guess - I would say yes on both 

[Viking]

1 hour ago, maxthetrade said:

 

What do you consider a 'normal size position'? I'm still way overweight @ 25%. In some smaller accounts up to a 50% weighting.

Some things I've done recently: selling KMX and MMM naked puts,. Selling ATCO calls and buying common shares yesterday. 

@maxthetrade i am constantly flexing my stock positions depending on changes in ‘the story’ and changes in a stock’s price. I am a big believer in holding concentrated positions (in stuff i think i understand reasonably well) when the risk / reward set-up looks very favourable to me. In terms of Fairfax i reduced my position today from about 30% to about 17% today. And i have had positions in Fairfax much higher than 30% (like in Nov 2020). For reference, my total portfolio is 80% cash today.
 

Concentration has been one of my keys to growing my investments over the years (i have averaged a little over 15% per year for 20 years). However, i am starting to think it is time for me to execute a more traditional (diversified) approach to portfolio construction. Why change?
1.) my portfolio is now ‘big enough’

2.) my life situation has changed (i am older)

3.) my ability to handle volatility is diminishing

I think we will get lots of volatility in the stock market over the next 6-12 months = lots of opportunities to buy lots of great companies when they are on sale. 
 

My ‘problem’ is what inevitably happens is a situation comes along that is simply too good to pass up… like Fairfax trading below US$480 a couple of weeks ago. Simply nuts. I love those kinds of ‘problems’ when they come along (and they ALWAYS do - and often multiple times each year - if a person is patient enough).

Edited March 31, 2022 by Viking

[Parsad]

1 hour ago, Viking said:

@maxthetrade i am constantly flexing my stock positions depending on changes in ‘the story’ and changes in a stock’s price. I am a big believer in holding concentrated positions (in stuff i think i understand reasonably well) when the risk / reward set-up looks very favourable to me. In terms of Fairfax i reduced my position today from about 30% to about 17% today. And i have had positions in Fairfax much higher than 30% (like in Nov 2020). For reference, my total portfolio is 80% cash today.
 

Concentration has been one of my keys to growing my investments over the years (i have averaged a little over 15% per year for 20 years). However, i am starting to think it is time for me to execute a more traditional (diversified) approach to portfolio construction. Why change?
1.) my portfolio is now ‘big enough’

2.) my life situation has changed (i am older)

3.) my ability to handle volatility is diminishing

I think we will get lots of volatility in the stock market over the next 6-12 months = lots of opportunities to buy lots of great companies when they are on sale. 
 

My ‘problem’ is what inevitably happens is a situation comes along that is simply too good to pass up… like Fairfax trading below US$480 a couple of weeks ago. Simply nuts. I love those kinds of ‘problems’ when they come along (and they ALWAYS do - and often multiple times each year - if a person is patient enough).

 

I think you guys have a different perspective on concentration than I do!    

 

At one point 18 months ago, I think Fairfax accounted for 75% of my portfolio!  As the stock slowly made its way closer to intrinsic value, I've dropped it to about 40% in most of my personal portfolios.  ATCO, FB and BAC make up about another 20%...the rest is cash.  I'll slowly whittle Fairfax down to less than 10% as it continues its rise to 1.1-1.2 times book.  

 

Never fall in love with a stock...not BRK, not FFH, none of them!  But bet heavy when things are very much in your favour!  Cheers!

[Parsad]

2 hours ago, Viking said:

 

Q1 results for Fairfax will be super interesting:

1.) CR? Can they deliver a CR at 94 or even lower?

2.) cash and short term investments balance? Are they re-investing some of this at higher yields?

 

IF we get a CR below 94 and rising interest and dividend income then i will likely be pounding the table again that Fairfax is stupid cheap again  (despite the run up in shares).

—————

Part of my reason for selling 1/3 of my position in Fairfax earlier today is i also expect another sell off in the coming months in the overall market. I expect lots of companies to be on sale (regardless of where Fairfax trades).

 

I think they probably hit #1 since renewal business was probably higher than last year.

 

I don't think they probably did too much in #2, but I wouldn't be surprised if they found some stuff in Europe or Asia with better yield.  Maybe put a little into U.S. debt as rates went higher.

 

Cheers!

[glider3834]

On 3/22/2022 at 8:08 AM, glider3834 said:

Berkshire acquired Alleghany at 1.26x BV

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/21/warren-buffetts-berkshire-hathaway-agrees-to-buy-insurance-company-alleghany-for-11point6-billion.html

 

I haven't looked into the details but my initial thoughts were WB is bullish on insurance & reinsurance space & he is prepared to pay a reasonable premium to book value

 

 

 

 

just on this recent M&A with Y

 

another article from Barrons on this suggesting  the door could be open for a competing bid https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-the-insurer-alleghany-could-be-worth-1-000-a-share-51648754456

 

probably helps explain why Y shares are trading just above the bid price

 

there are synergies with Berkshire's insurance business that probably appealed to WB https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/familiarity-similarity-driving-berkshire-s-alleghany-deal-69456428

 

but if you MTM Y's losses on their longer duration bond portfolio since 1 Jan,  Berkshire looks to be paying more than the P/BV of 1.26x for Y although i am not certain, as I haven't sat down & pieced together rest of Y's portfolio performance since 1 Jan 

 

Edited April 1, 2022 by glider3834

[ValueMaven]

I dont think there will be another bidder for Y.  Y fits really nicely inside of BRK for many reasons.  It's a solid acquisition!!

[steph]

My belief is that when there is this rare opportunity of being able to buy an outstanding risk/reward investment that you know well, you have to go big and then let it run and don’t look at it too closely anymore.

Big returns are made if you let this high conviction do its job.  I have been a shareholder of FFH for more than 15 years but went in ‘big’ (20% of portfolio) around 400 USD.  I believe correct price is around 750-800 USD TODAY…this will be growing.  With still many optionalities to the upside and low downside risk.

…and just imagine what could happen if one day investor sentiment gets positive again about Prem and the Fairfax team?   

Unless there is really bad news I will not sell probably before we reach 1000 USD in 3-4 years I hope. 

[nwoodman]

1 hour ago, steph said:

My belief is that when there is this rare opportunity of being able to buy an outstanding risk/reward investment that you know well, you have to go big and then let it run and don’t look at it too closely anymore.

Big returns are made if you let this high conviction do its job.  I have been a shareholder of FFH for more than 15 years but went in ‘big’ (20% of portfolio) around 400 USD.  I believe correct price is around 750-800 USD TODAY…this will be growing.  With still many optionalities to the upside and low downside risk.

…and just imagine what could happen if one day investor sentiment gets positive again about Prem and the Fairfax team?   

Unless there is really bad news I will not sell probably before we reach 1000 USD in 3-4 years I hope. 

Spot on.  I think the price/IV has only closed marginally.  I was always a little gun shy about some of their marks, what is becoming apparent to me is that there are plenty of unrecognised gems too.  

 

As Munger said “Sit on your ass. You’re paying less to brokers, you’re listening to less nonsense, and if it works, the tax system gives you an extra one, two, or three percentage points per annum.”

 

I don’t think it is falling in love with companies per se it is more I hate paying tax.  I will be more than happy if this closes the IV gap over 3-5 years and then performs at inflation + 7% over rolling 5 year periods.  

 

Happy with lumpy as long as they are not blowing up capital as per the past 10 years.  This then makes it margin-able and as an investment it’s utility improves greatly for my purposes. Everything that I am seeing at the moment seems to suggest this will prove to be the case. A small amount of margin and large unrealised tax liabilities seems to work out OK over the long run as long as the underlying investments keep on keeping on.  

[MMM20]

2 hours ago, steph said:

My belief is that when there is this rare opportunity of being able to buy an outstanding risk/reward investment that you know well, you have to go big and then let it run and don’t look at it too closely anymore.

Big returns are made if you let this high conviction do its job.  I have been a shareholder of FFH for more than 15 years but went in ‘big’ (20% of portfolio) around 400 USD.  I believe correct price is around 750-800 USD TODAY…this will be growing.  With still many optionalities to the upside and low downside risk.

…and just imagine what could happen if one day investor sentiment gets positive again about Prem and the Fairfax team?   

Unless there is really bad news I will not sell probably before we reach 1000 USD in 3-4 years I hope. 

+1. if/when to sell when things start going right and the valuation reverts to fair value (to be clear I agree we are far from fair value in this case) remains an underrated difficult part of the whole game.
 

Buffett’s approach looks wiser and wiser the older I get. insist on a significant safety margin on the buy but then let things run. Benign neglect, as long as you can sleep well at night.

 

I’ve said a few times here that FFH IV is IMHO closer to $1,500/share than most believe. Do the math on the holdings and capitalize your estimate of normalized underwriting profit on the recently-exploding float level. And then factor in what they’ve said and done on the share count as they flip to highly cash generative.

Maybe I am truly the biggest FFH fanboy around.

Edited April 2, 2022 by MMM20

[modiva]

8 hours ago, steph said:

My belief is that when there is this rare opportunity of being able to buy an outstanding risk/reward investment that you know well, you have to go big and then let it run and don’t look at it too closely anymore.

Big returns are made if you let this high conviction do its job.  I have been a shareholder of FFH for more than 15 years but went in ‘big’ (20% of portfolio) around 400 USD.  I believe correct price is around 750-800 USD TODAY…this will be growing.  With still many optionalities to the upside and low downside risk.

…and just imagine what could happen if one day investor sentiment gets positive again about Prem and the Fairfax team?   

Unless there is really bad news I will not sell probably before we reach 1000 USD in 3-4 years I hope. 

+1. I am also big with 25% of portfolio.  Started accumulating in 300's. I will only begin to sell after it reaches 1.2-1.3x book. Assuming their current strategy remains same.