steph

Interesting. But when you look at shareholder’s equity today of 30,5 billion and you add the dividend of 10 USD and then 15 USD and you take into account slightly less shares….and the huge rise in fair value over accounting value….you get 15% per year since your 2015 analysis. No deflation and no huge correction since then.

I look at it as a conservative +/- 10% earnings yield through the cycle at this point. They should be able to grow this at 10-15% a year by growing organically, buybacks, smart reinvestments,… . And then you have on top of this some hidden value and hopefully some nice surprises once in a while. Book value is less important as it used to be. Investing is about probabilities and limiting downside risk. FFH is still one of the best opportunities out there in my humble opinion.

They forgot the dividend

I am a shareholder since 2005 and I really like this book. I still learned interesting things, especially about the first decade. It reads almost as a thriller. Lot's of emphasis on the bad moments, the hard part, things that went wrong. Which often gives the impression that it is a shitty company, but in the end the growth of book value is extraordinary. But it is a wonderful tribute to Prem, for whom you can only have an enormous amount of respect.

Thank you Viking for all the amazing work you put into this and especially for sharing it with us. It is very helpfull. I wish you all an amazing 2026!

P/B is a very important metric for these type of businesses, but in the end it is cashflow and the reinvestment of this cashflow that will make this a good investment or not. FFH should easily do 150-180 usd EPS this year and the following years. All in all this should continue to grow nicely. So you pay 10 times conservative earnings for a business that has compounded at 19% over the last 40 years and that aims to compound at 15% over the long run. To have done this over a very long term this business must have a very serious moat. Buying such a high quality business at such a low multiple is to me quite unique. I am searching for these opportunities in the market but can’t find them. In my humble opinion at these levels I still have a very important margin of safety.

Haha...I prefer no dividend at all...but understand that Prem likes to have some cash coming in every year.

No dividends is much better. As long as they aspire to compound at 15% no dividend should be paid. Just the way Warren and Charlie have always done.

Eurobank is getting quite impressive: 1.209.000.000 shares at 3,40 euros = 4.110.600.000 or 4.784.700.000 USD!

Is there a place I can find Brian Bradstreet's or FFh's bond track record? They used to show it in the AGM presentation. Thx for the help.

Thank you so much Viking for all the amazing work you have done! Really appreciated that you share all this.

I would vote ‘Yes’ even though I realise it would be an amazing outcome. I totally agree with what is written here about book value around 1500 by the end of 2027. What surprises me is this ‘anchoring’ about valuation. I have been in this business now for over 30 years and the biggest or one of the biggest opportunities is when a certain valuation starts to seem like totally normal, but people forget that there have been periods with very different valuations. My believe is that if and that’s a big ‘if’, FFH continues executing as they have been doing lately AND investing in quality assets, they will get a rerating. For a company doing between 10 and 15% CAGR with quality assets and quality management I would think that the market could easily pay 1,5 times book. Even though insurance companies are historically not expensive today, you can find many with way higher P/B ratios. There will most certainly be a time when FFH will be priced at 1,5 to 2 times book and only then will people start to find that a very reasonable valuation. By then, 1 or 1,2 times book will be seen as extremely cheap and the opportunity of a lifetime.

India is a nice diversification and I believe they have good connections there, which is important. However, I prefer that the bulk of investments is in ‘hard currency’ countries such as the US, Canada and Europe. The Indian Rupee has halved over the last 15 years. It is often the case that growth is interesting but in the end the currency eats a lot of the performance. I hope they will invest most of their capital like Buffett does: in legislations that are kind to investors and stable and in solid currencies. Mostly just close to home.

The longer it lasts the more ridiculous he becomes.

....and 15 times earnings. FFh could double and still be cheaper than WRB.