Longnose Posted January 13 Posted January 13 The whole AI and drug / medicine thing. I have been rather curious about it and the reality and how it will shape out. I keep hearing about it on podcasts but have yet to see or read about it in something really materially or source level materials. If anyone has any I would be interested in learning a little bit more. Ive not typically invested in biotech or pharma because its outside my circle of competetence but i love learning and would love to read something more than "AI is changing the world of pharma and drug making"
NnnnotSoSmart Posted January 13 Posted January 13 Jeffries CIO Survey Shows Uptick in AI Budget Allocations and GOOGL Spend Our survey of 40 IT execs revealed 4 key insights: (1) modest accel in software budget growth in 2026; (2) AI tools / features and security are the top priorities; (3) increasing AI budget allocations at 12% vs. 7% last survey; (4) AI ROI highest for customer service and software dev, but not a slam dunk across all implementations. GOOGL (GCP) upticked in this survey in terms of net spend expectations, while MSFT, AMZN, PANW and CRWD continue to screen well. Jefferies CIO Survey Shows Uptick in AI Budget 011326.pdf
Libs Posted January 13 Posted January 13 (edited) 3 hours ago, Longnose said: The whole AI and drug / medicine thing. I have been rather curious about it and the reality and how it will shape out. I keep hearing about it on podcasts but have yet to see or read about it in something really materially or source level materials. If anyone has any I would be interested in learning a little bit more. Ive not typically invested in biotech or pharma because its outside my circle of competetence but i love learning and would love to read something more than "AI is changing the world of pharma and drug making" Here is some worthwhile general info: HCWainwrightCo_AI-BasedDrugDiscoveryandDevelopmentConference_Mar_11_2024.pdf Edited January 13 by Libs
Libs Posted January 13 Posted January 13 2 minutes ago, Libs said: Here is some worthwhile general info: HCWainwrightCo_AI-BasedDrugDiscoveryandDevelopmentConference_Mar_11_2024.pdf 406.45 kB · 2 downloads And a research report I found interesting: BTIG_TempusAI-blurringthelinesbetweenprecisiononcologytestingandsmarterdrugdevelopmentusingAI_Apr_21_2025.pdf
formthirteen Posted January 13 Posted January 13 29 minutes ago, Libs said: And a research report I found interesting: Thanks. Tempus was also one of the names I found interesting when looking at the price-to-revenue graphs of some of these stocks: Five quarters makes a trend.
NnnnotSoSmart Posted January 15 Posted January 15 McKinsey CEO comments on AI impact on headcount and productivity starting at 17:00 min. (0:00) Recap + Guest Intros: Jason introduces Bob Sternfels (McKinsey) and Hemant Taneja (General Catalyst) (2:48) The pace of innovation and why VC’s are buying hospitals (9:12) CFOs vs CIOs and unlocking growth (20:29) The job market and why graduates aren’t getting hired (27:21) Why education is broken (39:44) Looking back on innovative tech: Jason’s tech time capsule
rogermunibond Posted January 16 Posted January 16 (edited) 10 hours ago, bargainman said: wow, Dr Doom is all in on AI, amazing. His analysis piece is pretty interesting. AI productivity is only part of the thesis. Deglobalization, re-industrialization, defense, etc. Edited January 16 by rogermunibond
NnnnotSoSmart Posted January 16 Posted January 16 (edited) Chinese AI Developers Say They Can’t Beat America Without Better Chips Companies in China jostle for access to Nvidia’s latest Rubin lineup while better-funded U.S. competitors are first in line SINGAPORE—After a year of gung-ho news about China’s gains in artificial intelligence, some elite Chinese AI researchers are coming to a more pessimistic conclusion. The country’s chances of catching up to the U.S. are slim in the short run, they say, because of a bottleneck in chips. “The truth may be that the gap is actually widening,” Tang Jie, founder of the Chinese AI startup Zhipu, said at a conference last weekend in Beijing. “While we’re doing well in certain areas, we must still acknowledge the challenges and the disparities we face.” One illustration: When the AI chip leader, Nvidia, introduced its next-generation Rubin hardware in January, it named a number of American companies as customers, but no Chinese AI developer was named because U.S. rules block direct sales to China. Chinese companies have started discussions about renting computing power at data centers in Southeast Asia and the Middle East to get access to Rubin chips, according to people involved in the talks. That follows companies’ efforts last year to access chips in Nvidia’s Blackwell series. https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/china-ai-race-us-chips-9e74b957?st=9UpaM5&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink My guess is China will, by hook or by crook, get their hands on latest NVDA chips. Maybe Canada will supply them to China with a small markup? New profit center that thumbs its nose at "Orange Man"? Edited January 16 by NnnnotSoSmart
gfp Posted January 16 Posted January 16 Just now, NnnnotSoSmart said: Chinese AI Developers Say They Can’t Beat America Without Better Chips Companies in China jostle for access to Nvidia’s latest Rubin lineup while better-funded U.S. competitors are first in line https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/china-ai-race-us-chips-9e74b957?st=9UpaM5&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink My guess is China will, by hook or by crook, get their hands on latest NVDA chips. Maybe Canada will supply them to their new friend China with a small markup? China doesn't need the latest chips because they have tons of electricity. That is how they will ultimately pass us. The bottleneck is useable electricity. They can keep up with brute force without the most efficient chips and most advanced models because of all the power they will have available
NnnnotSoSmart Posted January 16 Posted January 16 4 minutes ago, gfp said: China doesn't need the latest chips because they have tons of electricity. That is how they will ultimately pass us. The bottleneck is useable electricity. They can keep up with brute force without the most efficient chips and most advanced models because of all the power they will have available That's one narrative - brute force. Will be fascinating watching it all play out. "“The truth may be that the gap is actually widening,” Tang Jie, founder of the Chinese AI startup Zhipu, said at a conference last weekend in Beijing. “While we’re doing well in certain areas, we must still acknowledge the challenges and the disparities we face.” In other news, this guy was recently "Jack Ma'd" by Chinese authorities after making this statement.
nsx5200 Posted January 16 Posted January 16 4 hours ago, gfp said: China doesn't need the latest chips because they have tons of electricity.[...] A bit off-topic, and possibly could be moved into the China Macro thread. There seems to be a disconnect between that narrative and this: https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/villagers-shiver-chinas-north-government-gas-subsidies-shrink-2026-01-15/ "Villagers shiver in China's north as government gas subsidies shrink" Didn't do a DD on this, but several reasons that I can think of are: there is significant frictional cost in using electricity as a substitute for gas as a source of heat. poor grid or electricity distribution infrastructure? CCP doesn't feel like 'wasting' electricity by heating people's homes, but rather it goes toward their pet projects (AI, robotics, industry, etc...) If China banned bitcoin mining (without banning bitcoin) due to foreseeing the energy issue, then it would seem like there is some concern about their energy supply, and that electricity overabundance narrative might not be completely accurate.
bargainman Posted January 17 Posted January 17 8 hours ago, gfp said: China doesn't need the latest chips because they have tons of electricity. That is how they will ultimately pass us. The bottleneck is useable electricity. They can keep up with brute force without the most efficient chips and most advanced models because of all the power they will have available Do you think all that electricity is currently unused or sitting idle? If so, your statement could be a factor, but if not there's another economic cost. I'm guessing it's their manufacturing sector taking up all that energy now? Anyone have numbers on that? Also https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/rubin-platform-ai-supercomputer claims that The Rubin platform harnesses extreme codesign across hardware and software to deliver up to 10x reduction in inference token cost and 4x reduction in number of GPUs to train MoE models, compared with the NVIDIA Blackwell platform. That's pretty dramatic. What that means in energy usage I'm not sure but a lot of the cost is energy usage. So say it's only half and Rubin is 5x less expensive per watt, so China, if it has the previous generation would need 5x as much power? What about training? Anyway, handwaving here, but I don't think it's as easy an 'inference' to make...
Spekulatius Posted January 18 Posted January 18 On 1/16/2026 at 1:24 PM, NnnnotSoSmart said: Chinese AI Developers Say They Can’t Beat America Without Better Chips Companies in China jostle for access to Nvidia’s latest Rubin lineup while better-funded U.S. competitors are first in line SINGAPORE—After a year of gung-ho news about China’s gains in artificial intelligence, some elite Chinese AI researchers are coming to a more pessimistic conclusion. The country’s chances of catching up to the U.S. are slim in the short run, they say, because of a bottleneck in chips. “The truth may be that the gap is actually widening,” Tang Jie, founder of the Chinese AI startup Zhipu, said at a conference last weekend in Beijing. “While we’re doing well in certain areas, we must still acknowledge the challenges and the disparities we face.” One illustration: When the AI chip leader, Nvidia, introduced its next-generation Rubin hardware in January, it named a number of American companies as customers, but no Chinese AI developer was named because U.S. rules block direct sales to China. Chinese companies have started discussions about renting computing power at data centers in Southeast Asia and the Middle East to get access to Rubin chips, according to people involved in the talks. That follows companies’ efforts last year to access chips in Nvidia’s Blackwell series. https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/china-ai-race-us-chips-9e74b957?st=9UpaM5&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink My guess is China will, by hook or by crook, get their hands on latest NVDA chips. Maybe Canada will supply them to China with a small markup? New profit center that thumbs its nose at "Orange Man"? UAE will supply them. They made a deal with Trump and I don’t think they need that much for themselves. They the dealer in near east and deal with Russian oil, iranian oil (second largest trading pattern is Iran) and who knows what. Canada cannot do it. Re export- export of blacklisted or dual use tech is forbidden in the US, canada, EU etc and always requires permission from the country its sources from.
sholland Posted January 18 Posted January 18 On 1/16/2026 at 10:12 PM, bargainman said: Do you think all that electricity is currently unused or sitting idle? If so, your statement could be a factor, but if not there's another economic cost. I'm guessing it's their manufacturing sector taking up all that energy now? Anyone have numbers on that?. “China is investing twice as much as the U.S. in power pants, storage, and infrastructure.”
treasurehunt Posted January 18 Posted January 18 On 1/16/2026 at 3:04 PM, nsx5200 said: If China banned bitcoin mining (without banning bitcoin) due to foreseeing the energy issue, then it would seem like there is some concern about their energy supply, and that electricity overabundance narrative might not be completely accurate. I'm sure there will be all kinds of demand for electricity in China as the country gets more prosperous, but I think gfp is right about China having a big advantage with electricity generation. Take a look at this chart from Nat Bullard's latest presentation on the state of decarbonization. Btw, the entire 200 slide presentation is very informative. You can find the presentation here: https://www.nathanielbullard.com/presentations
gfp Posted January 18 Posted January 18 As usual, I highly recommend everybody interested in this area watch the weekly (free) Jordi Visser videos. Its free https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dKQciyNi_yg
Libs Posted January 19 Posted January 19 21 hours ago, gfp said: As usual, I highly recommend everybody interested in this area watch the weekly (free) Jordi Visser videos. Its free https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dKQciyNi_yg Thanks GFP. Really good.
NnnnotSoSmart Posted January 19 Posted January 19 (edited) 22 hours ago, gfp said: As usual, I highly recommend everybody interested in this area watch the weekly (free) Jordi Visser videos. Its free https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dKQciyNi_yg Thanks for the reference. Adding him to my "confirmation bias" watchlist. 15:40 min "The memory shortage is a massive story and yet I hear more and more people fading it. As someone who's been on Micron for a long time now, below a hundred and continuing to sit in the exact same position, it's because I see nothing on the horizon ...And out of every 10 people I talk to, at least 6 if not 7 of them either don't believe it or it's too late and they cant get in. The Micron story is still real" Recent MU director purchase last week suggests it may not be too late to get in. https://www.secform4.com/filings/723125/0002058769-26-000002.htm I'm not buying at these levels, but maintain a "full" position. Edited January 19 by NnnnotSoSmart
NnnnotSoSmart Posted January 21 Posted January 21 (edited) Ray Kurzweil interview. Wild stuff. Edited January 21 by NnnnotSoSmart
NnnnotSoSmart Posted January 21 Posted January 21 A.I. and Our Economic Future The point of this essay is to entertain the possibility that A.I. might be profoundly transformative. What does economics have to say about this possibility, and what might our economic future look like? We begin by outlining two extreme scenarios for the impact of A.I. on the economy: one in which A.I. drastically accelerates economic growth and another in which A.I. is “business as usual.” Both scenarios are plausible, and the future will presumably lie somewhere between these extremes. Next, we describe task-based models of economic growth in which tasks are complementary. This “weak links” framework is helpful for thinking about the consequences of A.I. Finally, we consider potential risks from A.I., including effects on labor markets, inequality, and, more speculatively, existential risk. https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AIandEconomicFuture.pdf
formthirteen Posted January 21 Posted January 21 Live stream of Jensen Huang talking about radiologists, which Mark Leonard has also written about in CSU letters.
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