Artificial Intelligence

[Spekulatius]

17 hours ago, Valuebo said:

Can someone explain me who will bear the support costs, liabilities, logistics, customer sourcing, ... of all these amazingly - and basically free - AI tools that every company will be using apparently in a few years? That the biggest companies in the world will do it all in-house over time, I can still understand and believe. But people are nuts if they think most companies' managers will run the career risk of dropping everything in some random AI developed tools on which everything has to rely. 

AI is a tool but not the solution itself. Those companies that adapt will use AI as a tool to create solutions and those that do it best will thrive and those that fail will fall behind. We get technological shifts about every 10 years and that’s the one that defines with decade.

 

I think the question now AI models monetize is a good one. Sure companies will pay for it, but there seems to be little moats currently. Whatever is top now, it obsolete in few month and switching costs seem close to zero now. Some companies  subscribe to a few and as a developer you can select from Menu nd picke whatever you think works best and develop your custom solution with that model. You can even take open source models and then train that on your data and create an AI agent.

 

Now the thinking is that the infrastructure is the winner, but what happens when let say Amazon invests $200B in datacenter and more this. 50% goes into GPU, memory and those component prices normalize and go down 50% next year , Then you just have $50B in lost value and the company that builds a year later can offer compute much cheaper . Either that or Amazon does a n extraordinary writeoff of $50B to re-baseline their costs.

 

With all these moving parts, it’s unclear who the winner is.There are no real durable moats

here (spending more money then the other guy is not a moat), so you need capable management to navigate this rapidly evolving situation. It will be a wild ride in the stock markets , as we are seeing already.

Edited February 13 by Spekulatius

[Thrifty3000]

9 hours ago, frommi said:

Thanks. He basically states that all human labor will eventually be replaced, no job is safe. If thats the end-game we will see massive deflation at first and the government taxing robot/compute time while giving universal basic income to everybody later on. At first you think companies like NVDA will profit from this long term, but i doubt it, because AI can just create a new factory and build the chips it needs itself. Same for everything. Maybe resources get more expensive, but AI could just figure alternative ways to build something or create energy. At that point humans will probably just there to serve and money doesnt matter anyway.

If nobody has a job then who’s paying for all these AI services?

[frommi]

Good question and i dont think the AI pundits have an answer to that either

[Spekulatius]

4 hours ago, frommi said:

Good question and i dont think the AI pundits have an answer to that either

The answer is quite obvious and just about every other SciFi story or movie shows where it’s going.

[Valuebo]

9 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

AI is a tool but not the solution itself. Those companies that adapt will use AI as a tool to create solutions and those that do it best will thrive and those that fail will fall behind. We get technological shifts about every 10 years and that’s the one that defines with decade.

 

I think the question now AI models monetize is a good one. Sure companies will pay for it, but there seems to be little moats currently. Whatever is top now, it obsolete in few month and switching costs seem close to zero now. Some companies  subscribe to a few and as a developer you can select from Menu nd picke whatever you think works best and develop your custom solution with that model. You can even take open source models and then train that on your data and create an AI agent.

 

Now the thinking is that the infrastructure is the winner, but what happens when let say Amazon invests $200B in datacenter and more this. 50% goes into GPU, memory and those component prices normalize and go down 50% next year , Then you just have $50B in lost value and the company that builds a year later can offer compute much cheaper . Either that or Amazon does a n extraordinary writeoff of $50B to re-baseline their costs.

 

With all these moving parts, it’s unclear who the winner is.There are no real durable moats

here (spending more money then the other guy is not a moat), so you need capable management to navigate this rapidly evolving situation. It will be a wild ride in the stock markets , as we are seeing already.

 

Agreed. The cure for high prices, is high prices. We'll experience the same kind of glut sooner or later that we had 25 years ago.

[frommi]

30 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

The answer is quite obvious and just about every other SciFi story or movie shows where it’s going.

Yeah, i heard human bodies are good at producing electricity

[rogermunibond]

I prefer to think we are headed for a Wall-E future but with thinner bodies due to GLP-1s. 

[vinod1]

I am thinking of AI evolution as one of two paths

 

1. Same as any new technology. The technology itself might be disruptive and many companies go bankrupt while many new companies go on to become huge. Agriculture, combustion engines, electricity, cars, trains, automobiles, Internet, mobile phones, etc. Society goes through a period of churn but new jobs and industries develop. Everyone adapts.

 

2. AGI. Large scale destruction on a scale like the Ice age. Say a company is close to AGI or something similar and it is located in one country. That country would now be able to hack and render every nuclear weapon system of other countries or in someway dominate the whole world in a matter of days. If we take India and Pakistan for simplicity, if one thinks the other is within a couple of days of such capability, it makes a lot of "sense" to use your nuclear weapons when you have a chance to keep the status quo.

 

AI pundits are mildly helpful to read if we are on the #1 path above. If we are on #2 path, predictions are utterly useless regardless of the status of the AI pundit as the path would be so dependent on behavior of millions of people and it is utterly unpredictable.

 

So invest as if we are in path #1, if we are in path #2, your investments are not going to matter anyway.

 

Vinod

[Eldad]

15 minutes ago, vinod1 said:

I am thinking of AI evolution as one of two paths

 

1. Same as any new technology. The technology itself might be disruptive and many companies go bankrupt while many new companies go on to become huge. Agriculture, combustion engines, electricity, cars, trains, automobiles, Internet, mobile phones, etc. Society goes through a period of churn but new jobs and industries develop. Everyone adapts.

 

2. AGI. Large scale destruction on a scale like the Ice age. Say a company is close to AGI or something similar and it is located in one country. That country would now be able to hack and render every nuclear weapon system of other countries or in someway dominate the whole world in a matter of days. If we take India and Pakistan for simplicity, if one thinks the other is within a couple of days of such capability, it makes a lot of "sense" to use your nuclear weapons when you have a chance to keep the status quo.

 

AI pundits are mildly helpful to read if we are on the #1 path above. If we are on #2 path, predictions are utterly useless regardless of the status of the AI pundit as the path would be so dependent on behavior of millions of people and it is utterly unpredictable.

 

So invest as if we are in path #1, if we are in path #2, your investments are not going to matter anyway.

 

Vinod

Agree. Literally billions of people on earth that are not invested in AI and not even thinking about AI that will turn the world upside down if anything even close to what you all are saying comes to pass. So it’s not really worth thinking about. I know it seems like Zuck and Elon are in charge but they are not. They will be guillotined faster than chatgpt can answer your questions if it comes to that. 

[gfp]

16 minutes ago, Eldad said:

So it’s not really worth thinking about

 

Good luck with that strategy Eldad!

[Eldad]

6 minutes ago, gfp said:

 

Good luck with that strategy Eldad!

Obviously I am thinking about it but these people that make these predictions based on the political and social environment staying status quo as the technology environment changes are not thinking clearly. If you really believed what they were pushing you would sell out of stocks and buy land or something equally as drastic which could likely be a big mistake. 

[Spooky]

50 minutes ago, vinod1 said:

So invest as if we are in path #1, if we are in path #2, your investments are not going to matter anyway.

 

+1. This is what I have been thinking as well.

[Spooky]

5 minutes ago, Eldad said:

Obviously I am thinking about it but these people that make these predictions based on the political and social environment staying status quo as the technology environment changes are not thinking clearly. If you really believed what they were pushing you would sell out of stocks and buy land or something equally as drastic which could likely be a big mistake. 

 

Why not both? Barbell strategy with x) land and guns; and y) 100% stock portfolio.

[frommi]

2 hours ago, vinod1 said:

I am thinking of AI evolution as one of two paths

 

1. Same as any new technology. The technology itself might be disruptive and many companies go bankrupt while many new companies go on to become huge. Agriculture, combustion engines, electricity, cars, trains, automobiles, Internet, mobile phones, etc. Society goes through a period of churn but new jobs and industries develop. Everyone adapts.

 

Yes, but its hard to predict what companies really go bankrupt. I just asked Gemini and the first answer i get is this:
 

As AI evolves, companies that fail to pivot or rely on high-cost human labor for routine tasks face the highest risk of bankruptcy. Here’s a summary for your post:

 

1. High-Cost AI Startups (The "Burn" Risk)

Companies like OpenAI and Anthropic are burning billions in compute costs. If venture capital dries up before they hit profitability, even the industry leaders face existential threats. Recent failures like Builder.ai (which went into administration in late 2025) show that high valuations don't prevent collapse.

2. Content & Education Gatekeepers
...

[gfp]

Honestly I company like CoreWeave is probably more likely to go bankrupt than some software company people are worrying about today.

 

Decent chance the neoclouds for AI that take on debt to please their masters are the patsies 

[NnnnotSoSmart]

Dario Amodei thinks we are just a few years away from “a country of geniuses in a data center”. In this episode, we discuss what to make of the scaling hypothesis in the current RL regime, how AI will diffuse throughout the economy, whether Anthropic is underinvesting in compute given their timelines, how frontier labs will ever make money, whether regulation will destroy the boons of this technology, US-China competition, and much more.

 

𝐓𝐈𝐌𝐄𝐒𝐓𝐀𝐌𝐏𝐒 00:00:00 - What exactly are we scaling?

00:12:36 - Is diffusion cope?

00:29:42 - Is continual learning necessary?

00:46:20 - If AGI is imminent, why not buy more compute?

00:58:49 - How will AI labs actually make profit?

01:31:19 - Will regulations destroy the boons of AGI?

01:47:41 - Why can’t China and America both have a country of geniuses in a datacenter?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[MungerWunger]

Jeff Dean: 

 

[UK]

20 hours ago, rogermunibond said:

I prefer to think we are headed for a Wall-E future but with thinner bodies due to GLP-1s. 

+1

[UK]

22 hours ago, vinod1 said:

So invest as if we are in path #1, if we are in path #2, your investments are not going to matter anyway.

+1+1+1! Thanks!

[frommi]

Ok i sumhow understand some more now, and i got frightened

But how can a Agentic AI ever be safe from prompt injection? All these security alarm bells are ringing in my head. 

Edited February 15 by frommi

[gfp]

Once again, I highly recommend investors take the time to listed to Jordi Visser's entire free video each week.  Easy to skip past his paywall product descriptions and into the extremely valuable summary of market trends and AI.  There is a ton of turbulence underneath the indices that are still very near their highs and we are vulnerable to a large deleveraging / de-grossing volatility event.

 

https://www.youtube.com/@JordiVisserLabs/videos

[73 Reds]

4 minutes ago, gfp said:

Once again, I highly recommend investors take the time to listed to Jordi Visser's entire free video each week.  Easy to skip past his paywall product descriptions and into the extremely valuable summary of market trends and AI.  There is a ton of turbulence underneath the indices that are still very near their highs and we are vulnerable to a large deleveraging / de-grossing volatility event.

 

https://www.youtube.com/@JordiVisserLabs/videos

@gfp what would you by and/or sell in anticipation of any such events?

[frommi]

14 minutes ago, gfp said:

Once again, I highly recommend investors take the time to listed to Jordi Visser's entire free video each week.  Easy to skip past his paywall product descriptions and into the extremely valuable summary of market trends and AI.  There is a ton of turbulence underneath the indices that are still very near their highs and we are vulnerable to a large deleveraging / de-grossing volatility event.

 

https://www.youtube.com/@JordiVisserLabs/videos

But hasnt that already happened? Ive seen graphics of software companies % of holdings down to like 2% from 15% last year. The only thing that i can see shortly on the horizon is people getting fired on a mass scale very soon.

[gfp]

43 minutes ago, frommi said:

But hasnt that already happened? Ive seen graphics of software companies % of holdings down to like 2% from 15% last year. The only thing that i can see shortly on the horizon is people getting fired on a mass scale very soon.

 

The S&P is barely off its highs.  Leverage is extremely high.  Credit spreads are just coming off record tights.  Bond market is rallying in the face of "strong jobs numbers" and high nominal and real GDP growth.

[gfp]

56 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

@gfp what would you by and/or sell in anticipation of any such events?

 

I would buy protection, volatility.  Continue with scarcity trades from the physical world.  Small value over mag7.

 

I would expect some major freak outs around the monetization narrative of the hyperscalers' big AI spend - think of it as a cascade of multiple "deepseek moments"