Artificial Intelligence

[Luke]

 

Also a really good repost! 

 

 

[rogermunibond]

Bezo's Blue Origin announces plans for a satellite megaconstellation aimed at enterprise, data centers, and govt operations.

 

https://arstechnica.com/space/2026/01/blue-origin-we-want-to-have-a-megaconstellation-too/

[WayWardCloud]

Bezos is such a legend! I wish Blue Origin was inside Amazon so we could participate. The next generation of tech giants is staying private forever or IPOing at hundreds of billions when the big returns have already been made. This move from public to private arguably mimics our slide from a republic to an oligarchy. So grateful for public markets! 

[LC]

1 hour ago, WayWardCloud said:

This move from public to private arguably mimics our slide from a republic to an oligarchy

Agreed

[Buckeye]

I posted this in the GOOG thread as well.

 

Not sure if this has already been posted, but this new documentary on DeepMind is really good.   

And the story about how it came to be is pretty good too.

 

https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/google-deepmind-documentary-youtube-thinking-game-732bfa06?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqdrg42QCIVCynWOp4EBgxEL1kM48R2rD814eHzA_-Kvj4AlQ7hLrNxs_3lgfcY%3D&gaa_ts=697190c1&gaa_sig=Nutsz5qAhPY4ti8EbDb1oDn1W7WwGcmdLlvIAaQ5eUF_GdZ6KAAPxyAbpDPggKl6aBUWSyUk0wdkZEYlxY-kCQ%3D%3D

 

 

Edited January 22 by Buckeye

[UK]

1 hour ago, Buckeye said:

I posted this in the GOOG thread as well.

 

Not sure if this has already been posted, but this new documentary on DeepMind is really good.   

And the story from about it came to be is pretty good too.

 

https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/google-deepmind-documentary-youtube-thinking-game-732bfa06?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqdrg42QCIVCynWOp4EBgxEL1kM48R2rD814eHzA_-Kvj4AlQ7hLrNxs_3lgfcY%3D&gaa_ts=697190c1&gaa_sig=Nutsz5qAhPY4ti8EbDb1oDn1W7WwGcmdLlvIAaQ5eUF_GdZ6KAAPxyAbpDPggKl6aBUWSyUk0wdkZEYlxY-kCQ%3D%3D

 

 

 

Looks interesting. Thanks! 

[gfp]

Robotaxis are live in Austin with no safety driver / monitor.  A pretty big deal

 

 

[nsx5200]

https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/workplace/ceos-say-ai-is-making-work-more-efficient-employees-tell-a-different-story-6613ce9d

 

"The gulf between senior executives’ and workers’ actual experience with generative AI is vast, according to a new survey from the AI consulting firm Section of 5,000 white-collar workers."

I find it amusing that the more distance from using AI on work, the rosier the outlook.  There are tons of non-technical finance people on 'social media' that is giving opinions on how AI is going to disrupt everything, and betting accordingly...

[cubsfan]

For an AI novice like me, this episode with Steve Eisman and Gary Marcus helps me understand a few of the challenges ahead. Marcus is a critic of current state of the large language models.

 

Fortunately, Eisman is a dummy like me - so he forces Marcus to explain it well.

 

 

 

Edited January 23 by cubsfan

[formthirteen]

5 hours ago, nsx5200 said:

I find it amusing that the more distance from using AI on work, the rosier the outlook.  There are tons of non-technical finance people on 'social media' that is giving opinions on how AI is going to disrupt everything, and betting accordingly...

 

Management is just revealing their long-term plans 

 

Quote

 

Pournelle's iron law of bureaucracy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerry_Pournelle

 

In any bureaucracy, the people devoted to the benefit of the bureaucracy itself always get in control and those dedicated to the goals that the bureaucracy is supposed to accomplish have less and less influence, and sometimes are eliminated entirely.

 

 

[MungerWunger]

Jensen huang interview: 

 

 

summary by Liberty: https://www.libertyrpf.com/p/610-jensen-on-everything-apple-google

Edited January 24 by MungerWunger

[Spekulatius]

On 1/23/2026 at 2:25 AM, formthirteen said:

 

Management is just revealing their long-term plans 

 

 

One outcome of AI is that the IT department (and chief technology officer etc) becomes way more powerful within each organization.

[NnnnotSoSmart]

39 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

One outcome of AI is that the IT department (and chief technology officer etc) becomes way more powerful within each organization.

Dave Blundin: @1:00:09 min" Your so on. I mean GOOGL had an incredible 2025. Just look at the stock charts of the big tech companies in calendar 2025. GOOGL started the year vulnerable to AI taking all the search way. Vulnerable , vulnerable, vulnerable...And as you said  Sunday Pichai is just crushing it. 

 

Rewind the clock to when Sergei and Larry chose Sundar to be the next CEO.  Everybody I talked to in the tech industry said "WHO? WHAT?, WHY? What skills does this guy have? He has only one skill, AI? He's not good at anything except AI.  Why would you choose him?"

 

 

 

 

Edited January 24 by NnnnotSoSmart

[Luke]

[formthirteen]

GTLB bulls should listen to this podcast. Satya talked about Github and agents for a what felt like 10-15 minutes and how the number of new code repositories is at an all-time high:

https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/satya-nadella-2

 

Satya also talked about how AI agents might increase per-seat billing.  + = per-seat growth

[Spekulatius]

21 hours ago, Luke said:

OpenAI would be happy if their profit were zero now. Their income statement is not public but an article suggested that their losses are in the $10B ballpark now and likely higher.They spent about 2$ for every $ they take in. They raised $40B in 2025 alone.

 

[Luke]

2 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

OpenAI would be happy if their profit were zero now. Their income statement is not public but an article suggested that their losses are in the $10B ballpark now and likely higher.They spent about 2$ for every $ they take in. They raised $40B in 2025 alone.

 

[gfp]

Again, I highly recommend Jordi's free weekly videos, out Sunday mornings, for anyone interested in AI, the infrastructure build out, scarcity vs. abundance and the huge crowd trying to pick bottoms in the valuation of software companies.  As a bonus, you can learn how to get much better at using the AI models in your investment research process.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CEtUJN2nfEI

 

(link to a youtube video)

[cubsfan]

12 minutes ago, gfp said:

Again, I highly recommend Jordi's free weekly videos, out Sunday mornings, for anyone interested in AI, the infrastructure build out, scarcity vs. abundance and the huge crowd trying to pick bottoms in the valuation of software companies.  As a bonus, you can learn how to get much better at using the AI models in your investment research process.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CEtUJN2nfEI

 

(link to a youtube video)

 

I really enjoyed the last Jordi video you posted. Very helpful for newbies like me.

[UK]

19 hours ago, formthirteen said:

GTLB bulls should listen to this podcast. Satya talked about Github and agents for a what felt like 10-15 minutes and how the number of new code repositories is at an all-time high:

https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/satya-nadella-2

 

Satya also talked about how AI agents might increase per-seat billing.  + = per-seat growth

Thanks!

 

Gemini:

In recent 2025 and 2026 interviews, Satya Nadella has positioned GitHub as the "command center" for the next era of software development. His core message focuses on shifting from simple code storage to an AI-native platform where humans and agents collaborate. 
1. From Repositories to "Agent HQs"
Nadella envisions GitHub evolving into a central hub for managing AI Agents. 
Mission Control: He described a future "heads-up display" where developers triage and steer code generated by multiple agents.
Agent Management: GitHub is being overhauled to include an "Agent HQ" with administrative controls, allowing companies to track which agent performed what action and audit their changes across codebases.
Coordination Layer: Nadella compares this new environment to a "new type of inbox" where humans coordinate workflows performed by autonomous AI researchers, analysts, and coders. 
2. The Era of "Vibe Coding"
Nadella has championed the term "vibe coding," which describes building software primarily through natural language prompting. 
How vs. What: He argues that the focus of coding is shifting from the "what" (writing syntax) to the "how" (metacognition and toolchain management).
Metacognition: Developers now need to focus on the high-level logic and the outcome rather than the "input" of manual code. 
3. Impact on Developer Roles
While AI is now writing roughly 30% of Microsoft's own code, Nadella insists developers remain central. 
Bicycle for the Mind: He frames AI as a "cognitive amplifier" or "guardian angel"—a tool that enhances human capability rather than replacing it.
New Compilers: He advises developers to treat AI agents like "new compilers," where the skill lies in learning to collaborate with these systems constantly. 
4. Strategic Overhaul
Microsoft is currently reshuffling engineering teams to ensure GitHub remains the leading platform against "AI-first" rivals like Cursor and Claude Code. 
Enterprise Integration: GitHub Copilot is being integrated with Azure AI Foundry to create a seamless pipeline from model building to deployment.
Revenue Growth: GitHub's revenue has grown to over $2 billion annualized, with over 15 million Copilot users as of early 2026. 

 

[formthirteen]

@UK I also recommend Notebook LM from Google (https://notebooklm.google.com/). Sometimes it hallucinates but from what I can remember from the Dwarkesh podcast this infographic on the future of "Github AI" is pretty accurate:

 

 

I tried to tell Notebook LM to focus on the Github part of the interview and output an infographic.

[UK]

1 hour ago, formthirteen said:

@UK I also recommend Notebook LM from Google (https://notebooklm.google.com/). Sometimes it hallucinates but from what I can remember from the Dwarkesh podcast this infographic on the future of "Github AI" is pretty accurate:

 

 

I tried to tell Notebook LM to focus on the Github part of the interview and output an infographic.

[UK]

https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/drugmakers-turn-ai-speed-trials-regulatory-submissions-2026-01-26/

[MungerWunger]

 

[UK]

On 1/25/2026 at 5:22 PM, gfp said:

Again, I highly recommend Jordi's free weekly videos, out Sunday mornings, for anyone interested in AI, the infrastructure build out, scarcity vs. abundance and the huge crowd trying to pick bottoms in the valuation of software companies.  As a bonus, you can learn how to get much better at using the AI models in your investment research process.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CEtUJN2nfEI

 

(link to a youtube video)

 

Yes, this he i s very good. I think it is really good for some ego check, especially for all (including me) trying to bottom fish is software. I still do not have a strong conviction here, especially on the particular companies, but for me it is hard not to be afraid for some in the sector ending not that different from newspapers. valuation is not the most important thing here, past price performance is useless, I think it is all about survivability in AI era and so if one can answer this question, good, if not, this is gambling.

 

Regarding his materials and energy thesis, I have even less knowledgeable here comparing to software:), but can anyone please explain me, how all this can work if the mother of all commodities/energy, which is oil, is not up and also going parabolic? If you still gave cheap oil isn't it allows to still solve the majority of the problems with all the bottlenecks sooner or later?