sholland

I believe that point #2 is irrelevant to the discussion because of Jevon’s paradox. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox

IMO the difficulty in forecasting natural gas prices is the reason that this is known as a widow maker trade. Natural gas is a pure commodity sensitive to warm winters and lacks a cartel like OPEC to limit overproduction.

“The value of a business is the present value of all the future cash flows expected to occur over the lifetime of a business which is discounted at an appropriate discount rate.” - Warren Buffett Whether the business has a moat or not does not enter into the DCF calculation. The rules of thumb I presented are just my 1st level approximations. You are correct to think in 2nd and 3rd levels about the value of a business.

As mentioned above, P/E multiples are a shortcut for DCF. If you have a steady business (no growth, but no decline) it should be worth roughly 10x owner earnings. Throw in some growth and you might justify a P/E multiple of 15. Some extreme high growth companies like Google & Facebook in their heyday justified very high P/E multiples. I believe that every beginner should verify what I said above with DCF models and get a feel for the process. Once you get a feel then you will not need DCF.

Oil producers, especially ones located in Canada. Consensus seems to be that OPEC will defend $90 oil until it is no longer defensible.

At the 14:15 minute mark this guy (Thunderf00t aka Phil Mason) claims that battery technology is probably as energy dense as it is going to get if you want to maintain things like safety, reliability, and rechargeability. Any exports on this board disagree?

Read Freedom’s Forge https://www.amazon.com/Freedoms-Forge-American-Business-Produced/dp/0812982045/ref=asc_df_0812982045/?tag=hyprod-20&linkCode=df0&hvadid=312243616995&hvpos=&hvnetw=g&hvrand=6544409871145515635&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvqmt=&hvdev=c&hvdvcmdl=&hvlocint=&hvlocphy=9024305&hvtargid=pla-564515663945&psc=1

This routine is recommended by Nassim Taleb and myself. I did it for over a year before getting back longer duration routines.

You might want to look at shorting Florida insurer UVE. I shorted it (unprofitably) in 2017, 2018, and 2019 on the belief that 1) the Florida Legislature passed laws that screwed up the market and 2) a repeat of the following hurricanes would bankrupt the company: Repeat of 1926 Miami Hurricane Repeat of 1928 Great Okeechobie Hurricane Repeat of 1947 Fort Lauderdale Hurricane Repeat of 1992 Hurricane Andrew I can provide more information if this is something you are interested in as I believe the Florida insurance situation has not changed much since I last looked at in 2019.

conventional wisdom says only sell puts on stocks you want to buy anyways. When Buffett owned part of BNSF he sold $70 puts. I am obliged to pass on this tale of caution from Charlie Munger: I knew a guy who had $5 million and owned his house free and clear. But he wanted to make a bit more money to support his spending, so at the peak of the internet bubble he was selling puts on internet stocks. He lost all of his money and his house and now works in a restaurant.

$CNTWW haunts me. In 2020 these were very illiquid. After watching these dip to $0.10 I tried to buy over 40,000 at $0.15, but only managed to buy 2543. After quickly making a couple thousand dollars tax free forever in my Roth IRA I sold. $CNTWW top ticked over $150. I missed my only chance I’ll probably ever get at a 1000 bagger. These are the little anomalies that small sums of money can take advantage of that large sums cannot.

follow this guy on Twitter to keep up with the progression of the cases

Not giving us much to go on, but perhaps you are talking about Goehring and Rosencwajg https://4043042.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/4043042/Content Offers/2022.Q4 Commentary/2022.Q4 GR Market Commentary.pdf

Agreed - I believe that the difficulty of holding the extreme temperatures and pressures over a significant amount of time (the triple product or Lawson Criterion) will prevent fusion from being a viable energy source for several decades, if ever.

I don’t live in Canada, but my understanding is that tax pools are transferable in a takeover/buyout. My understanding must be wrong because Prairie Provident an enterprise value of ~$140M and $861M of tax pools ($560M of which are immediately deductible). Why isn’t PPR being bought out?