Have We Hit The Top?

[james22]

52 minutes ago, hasilp89 said:

But in the LT what is  more self reliant than wind and solar.

 

Nuclear.

[hasilp89]

2 hours ago, james22 said:

 

Nuclear.

As I mentioned you gotta buy the uranium from somewhere. Once infrastructure is in (yes the chips will prob come from china) the wind and sun are just there. And again I completely agree in the ST, but just pointing out what appears to be the most self reliant option.

[james22]

13 hours ago, hasilp89 said:

As I mentioned you gotta buy the uranium from somewhere. Once infrastructure is in (yes the chips will prob come from china) the wind and sun are just there. And again I completely agree in the ST, but just pointing out what appears to be the most self reliant option.

 

Wind and solar aren't reliant. In the LT battery tech may make them moreso, but they'll remain crazily inefficient relative to nuclear.

[Gamecock-YT]

Starting to see some gating of some russian heavy funds, this one was 68% russian.

 

 

 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

49 minutes ago, Gamecock-YT said:

Starting to see some gating of some russian heavy funds, this one was 68% russian.

 

 

 

 

Yea. These guys probably own the stock on the Russian exchange. With it being closed and liquidity being denied to foreigners, probably tough to meet redemptions. Wait and see is now the name of the game.

 

We've all hypothesized what it might look like to own a stock and close the market for 5 years. Anyone in Russian assets might get to experience that over the next 6-12 months. 

Edited February 28, 2022 by TwoCitiesCapital

[james22]

Germany signalled a U-turn in key energy policies on Sunday, floating the possibility of extending the life-spans of coal and even nuclear plants to cut dependency on Russian gas, part of a broad political rethink following Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.

 

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/germany-step-up-plans-cut-dependence-russia-gas-2022-02-27/

[Guest]

I was looking at a Russian focused mutual fund. It dropped about 90% from Oct 1997 to Sept 1998. That is wild.

 

It's "only" down by about 50% from the current high. 

[Longnose]

I've previously looked at QIWI and YNDX. I will be keeping an eye on them. YNDX could become quite compelling. Even current price is worth a look. YNDX is the search engine of choice in Russia and people wont stop surfing the internet because of a war. I don't know how it will impact their profits and the currency risks around everything. But at the right price this YNDX has good prospects -the ADR risks. 

 

I wont bet the farm on it, but I may take a small nibble at some point. 

[Spekulatius]

If someone told me in late 2019 that we have 

a) a major world wide epidemic

b) A European land war

c) the SP500 would be up ~50% in 2022 after all this occurred...

 

Well I would have thought this person is crazy. Yet, here we are.

[Xerxes]

17 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

If someone told me in late 2019 that we have 

a) a major world wide epidemic

b) A European land war

c) the SP500 would be up ~50% in 2022 after all this occurred...

 

Well I would have thought this person is crazy. Yet, here we are.

 

very true, BUT the inverse does not apply

 

-----

If someone told me in late 2019 that we would have 

a) No major world wide epidemic

b) No military conflict in Europea with Russia

c) the SP500 would be down 50% in 2022 

 

i would have said, yeah, that is very possible

 

 

 

[james22]

2 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

If someone told me in late 2019 that we have 

a) a major world wide epidemic

b) A European land war

c) the SP500 would be up ~50% in 2022 after all this occurred...

 

Well I would have thought this person is crazy. Yet, here we are.

 

If someone had told me two weeks ago that:

 

a) the Russian military would (seemingly) be stymied in its invasion of Ukraine,

b) the invasion would unite the West (including Germany remilitarizing and reversing energy policy), and

c) the invasion might discourage China from moving against Taiwan, rather than encourage...

 

Well, I would have thought this person was wishful thinking. Yet here we are.

[Longnose]

[thepupil]

2 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

If someone told me in late 2019 that we have 

a) a major world wide epidemic

b) A European land war

c) the SP500 would be up ~50% in 2022 after all this occurred...

 

Well I would have thought this person is crazy. Yet, here we are.

 

S&P 500's earnings per share are up about 40% over that time frame. We can try to figure out whether those earnings are sustainable, but it's not completely unwarranted. 

[Guest]

On 2/28/2022 at 1:04 PM, stahleyp said:

I was looking at a Russian focused mutual fund. It dropped about 90% from Oct 1997 to Sept 1998. That is wild.

 

It's "only" down by about 50% from the current high. 

 

The fund is now down almost 89% YTD (and a little over 90% since Oct 2021. Incredible. Now basically 20 years of zero returns. 

 

Looks like they closed the fund to new investors on 2/28 as well. 

[Spekulatius]

21 hours ago, thepupil said:

 

S&P 500's earnings per share are up about 40% over that time frame. We can try to figure out whether those earnings are sustainable, but it's not completely unwarranted. 

The earnings growth in itself is a remarkable result. I agree it has been the main driver of equity returns.

[muscleman]

Some anecdotal evidence, I think the company earnings are at the peak for the next two years. For those value fishers, I think you will step into a value trap when you look at last year's earning.

I recently changed job, and got a much higher total compensation. I see lots and lots of coworkers preparing to change jobs to get bigger pay. Inflation is pressing them to do so too. Every week, there are key employees leaving in various teams. Companies are forced to pay much more to get new employees to replace the ones leaving.

[Spekulatius]

LOL:

 

 

Edited March 16, 2022 by Spekulatius

[wabuffo]

Oh no!  We're all making more money.  The economy is going to crash!   Bullish!

 

Bill

Edited March 16, 2022 by wabuffo

[Spekulatius]

4 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

LOL:

 

 

 

He wasn't wrong - we will not survive this:

[boilermaker75]

5 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

LOL:

 

 

 

Any one who lists their name as Dr. Parik Patel, BA, CFA, ACCA Esq. (drpatel.eth) tells me all I need to know about the individual.

[fareastwarriors]

13 minutes ago, boilermaker75 said:

 

Any one who lists their name as Dr. Parik Patel, BA, CFA, ACCA Esq. (drpatel.eth) tells me all I need to know about the individual.

 

It's a joke/meme/satirical account. 

[Gregmal]

Yea but there was real fear in a lot of places, here too, that these ultra hikes were going to ruin the stock market. Theyre guiding 7 hikes. 2% rate. Who cares?

[boilermaker75]

22 minutes ago, fareastwarriors said:

 

It's a joke/meme/satirical account. 

 

OK, thanks, but I have known individuals who have done that.

Edited March 16, 2022 by boilermaker75

[Spekulatius]

6 minutes ago, boilermaker75 said:

 

OK, thanks, but I have known individuals who have done that.

If you are on Fintwit,  Patel is a must follow. He captures the Zeitgeist like no one else with his quips.

[boilermaker75]

4 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

If you are on Fintwit,  Patel is a must follow. He captures the Zeitgeist like no one else with his quips.

 

Thanks, I am not familiar with Fintwit but I will look into it.