Coronavirus

[Dalal.Holdings]

I don't fully understand why it matters what a country's exact death count is. If it's what's being reported or that amount times three, it's still insignificant on the bigger picture. We've shut the country down to prevent deaths in the hundred of thousands or even millions, so what does it matter if the exact death toll right now is 5000 or 15000?

 

It matters because (per capita) mortality likely indicates how well a country's leaders responded to this crisis. Mortality, when not obscured by governments (?China), is an outcome measure much less likely to be undercounted than total cases (which is strongly tied to testing frequency).

 

The figures for the United States do not look good despite it being among the last places to get the outbreak (i.e. having the most amount of time to prepare for it).

[EliG]

-Follow-up to StubbleJumper and orthopa about expectations in Ontario (largest province in Canada) and potential implications.

They have just released data, 'projections' and rationale for policy making (see slides):

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-covid-projections-1.5519575

 

Projected 3,000 to 15,000 deaths in Ontario.. More than Hubei province in China, up to 5x more. How is Trudeau/Ford govt managing this well?

 

3,000 to 15,000 deaths is an estimate over the course of the entire pandemic. Ontario model estimates that it may last up to 2 years (multiple waves).

 

Do you have Hubei estimate for the entire pandemic? What is their estimate for the pandemic duration?

 

I agree with you that Ontario is not managing all that well. However, you don't need to spin the numbers to make your case.

 

[EliG]

... BTW WHO also kicked Taiwan out of the network. ...

 

muscleman,

 

Do you have a source for this statement? -And what are the practical implications of this?- Thank you.

 

Taiwan says WHO not sharing coronavirus information it provides, pressing complaints

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-taiwan-who/taiwan-says-who-not-sharing-coronavirus-information-it-provides-pressing-complaints-idUSKBN21H1AU

 

[Guest]

... BTW WHO also kicked Taiwan out of the network. ...

 

muscleman,

 

Do you have a source for this statement? -And what are the practical implications of this?- Thank you.

 

I've heard something similar from a friend (a doctor) who's from Taiwan. She's not a fan of China...at all.

[John Hjorth]

Thanks Eli & Paul.

[Gregmal]

LOL Dalal. Literally everything you blanket upon others you are 100% guilty of yourself just on the other end. Trump could shoot a man on 5th and not lose a voter. He could also cure cancer and you'd still bitch and moan about something.

 

You never commit to ANYTHING. You've spouted off about millions of deaths! If the number is less than millions will you give credit? Of course you won't, you'll just change the tune and whine about something else.

 

Even your comment about deaths being a measure of leadership is absurd. Hasn't it been apparent this is a locally run issue? How is Trump responsible for some shithole city like NY where even during normal times you have garbage bag lined streets and rat feces, syringes and homeless people everywhere? Not to mention, showcasing your "facts" it has been widely detailed that a national shutdown is very possibly unconstitutional!

 

So please, commit to some future marker like Gibbons did. And then stand behind it like a man. Dont then run to change the goal posts and carry on acting the exact same way you accuse others of acting.

[Dalal.Holdings]

LOL Dalal. Literally everything you blanket upon others you are 100% guilty of yourself just on the other end. Trump could shoot a man on 5th and not lose a voter. He could also cure cancer and you'd still bitch and moan about something.

 

You never commit to ANYTHING. You've spouted off about millions of deaths! If the number is less than millions will you give credit? Of course you won't, you'll just change the tune and whine about something else.

 

Even your comment about deaths being a measure of leadership is absurd. Hasn't it been apparent this is a locally run issue? How is Trump responsible for some shithole city like NY where even during normal times you have garbage bag lined streets and rat feces, syringes and homeless people everywhere? Not to mention, showcasing your "facts" it has been widely detailed that a national shutdown is very possibly unconstitutional!

 

So please, commit to some future marker like Gibbons did. And then stand behind it like a man. Dont then run to change the goal posts and carry on acting the exact same way you accuse others of acting.

 

Cry cry cry Trump supporter who said he was done w this thread (and has been oh so wrong) many times but comes back for more. I guess it's easy to excuse Trump for not seeing this when you yourself missed it. You want a President who is "just like you" anyway, right? Someone you can have a beer with.

 

I repeatedly said the China ban was a good decision, but not followed up with anything else constructive. Never spouted about millions of deaths, but go ahead and make up straw men. 

 

NYC a "shithole city". Yeah, I guess deaths here don't matter for you. What a patriot you must be. You resemble your boy Trump that's for sure.

 

I need to hear more constructive posts like your opinion about the women who work at CNBC. You add so much valuable insight to this forum.

 

This ain't your safe space.

[Gregmal]

So since deaths are a good barometer, commit to a number to then judge? Clearly its millions no? You've said as much before.... or are you backtracking?

[Dalal.Holdings]

So since deaths are a good barometer, commit to a number to then judge? Clearly its millions no? You've said as much before.... or are you backtracking?

 

Find me that quote. You can't make up stuff here. You've been wrong too many times to possess the level of confidence that you seem to have.

[Gregmal]

Commit to something Dalal? Come on. I know its hard for you folks. Deflect, deflect, deflect...

[Dalal.Holdings]

Commit to something Dalal? Come on. I know its hard for your folks. Deflect, deflect, deflect...

 

Wrong wrong wrong all day but "I have so much confidence" Gregmal.

 

Confidence in the face of being repeatedly wrong--a surefire strategy for disaster in investing!

 

Please shower us with your opinion on NYC shithole that is paying the price for your elected leader's (and son-in-law's) gross incompetence and the women who work at CNBC.

 

Did you think NYC was a shithole after 9/11 too? Patriot.

[Gregmal]

Commit to something Dalal? Come on. I know its hard for your folks. Deflect, deflect, deflect...

 

Wrong wrong wrong all day but "I have so much confidence" Gregmal.

 

So you won't commit to a number to judge by then?

 

Yea sure, change the subject and then ask me to go back and look through 300+ pages for your quotes which you've already been called out for changing and lying about... Nice!

[Dalal.Holdings]

Commit to something Dalal? Come on. I know its hard for your folks. Deflect, deflect, deflect...

 

Wrong wrong wrong all day but "I have so much confidence" Gregmal.

 

So you won't commit to a number to judge by then?

 

Yea sure, change the subject and then ask me to go back and look through 300+ pages for your quotes which you've already been called out for changing and lying about... Nice!

 

I don't commit to numbers in the face of rapid compounding and wide uncertainty, but I do sell my stocks and go to cash when I sensed this disaster unfolding (unlike your POTUS)--it comes from the useless books I read.

 

“In my whole life, I have known no wise people (over a broad subject matter area) who didn't read all the time -- none, zero."

 

-Munger

 

Better hope you're the exception to the rule.

[LongHaul]

Liberty - thanks for posting a lot of stuff on Covid!

 

I think wearing masks is likely to help a lot.  BUT - here are the Czech numbers - I would have thought they would have come down more as the mandatory mask wearing date was ~3/18/20

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104327/czechia-coronavirus-covid-19-new-cases/

 

Any thoughts on this? Maybe too soon to tell because of delays in cases and testing.

 

At the end of the day countries should just copy what works - the East Asian Countries have done well.  Masks, Extreme lockdown in China, Mass testing, Physical distancing, etc.

 

Politics

Is this really the time to hash out political differences of opinion in the middle of a pandemic - do it after and master your emotions to keep things productive to solve the problem.

Who the F cares if someone disagrees with you - let it go.  Probably adds stress to your life which weakens the immune system.  ;)

 

 

 

[Dalal.Holdings]

Lol...that escalated quickly. But don't you go calling my city a "shithole" when thousands are dying and you and your POTUS having screwed us over by minimizing this crisis as recently as weeks ago. So many quality posts by that individual on this forum ("money honeys"??) and stratospheric levels of arrogance+confidence.

 

Friday night. Happy hour time. Out for the night with my pile of degenerates in "the shithole". Peace.

[Gregmal]

Lol...that escalated quickly. But don't you go calling my city a "shithole" when thousands are dying and you and your POTUS having screwed us over by minimizing this crisis as recently as weeks ago. So many quality posts by that individual on this forum ("money honeys"??) and stratospheric levels of arrogance+confidence.

 

Friday night. Happy hour time. Out for the night with my pile of degenerates in "the shithole". Peace.

 

I and "my" POTUS screwed you! LOL Do you hear yourself? Real liberal syndrome there.

 

Im one of the few here who's time and again been capable of both praising POTUS and criticizing him. There arent many who have even half ass objectively done both. But for arguments sake...who IS responsible for NYC??? The POTUS? The Mayor? The Governor? What is POTUS exactly expected to do with a filthy blue city whose political composition is lefties who hate him, refuse to work with him, and rather play games? Commit to something here bud! Assign %'s to the NYC blame? Surely De Blasio gets more than Trump?

[John Hjorth]

Lol...that escalated quickly. ... Friday night. Happy hour time. Out for the night with my pile of degenerates in "the shithole". Peace.

 

Dalal.Holdings,

 

Enjoy!

[cubsfan]

Lol...that escalated quickly. But don't you go calling my city a "shithole" when thousands are dying and you and your POTUS having screwed us over by minimizing this crisis as recently as weeks ago. So many quality posts by that individual on this forum ("money honeys"??) and stratospheric levels of arrogance+confidence.

 

Friday night. Happy hour time. Out for the night with my pile of degenerates in "the shithole". Peace.

 

Yea, your mayor and your health commissioner really did a bang up job - ride the subway, no changes needed, have a great time

at the Chinatown parade, etc,

 

But if it all changes, we can blame in on the President.  What a crock.

[cubsfan]

Projected 3,000 to 15,000 deaths in Ontario.. More than Hubei province in China, up to 5x more. How is Trudeau/Ford govt managing this well?

 

I think you're not really interested in an answer. If I'm wrong, the answer has been all over this thread. Go look it up.

 

I'm surprised that you have so much faith in the transparency of the Chinese Communist Party in sharing the number of deaths.

 

(It's still noteworthy that USA has a 5x per capita death rate compared to Canada. If you think Canada's managing this poorly, you must think that the USA is managing this horrendously.)

 

Aren’t they projecting 150k deaths in the US? US definitely managed this horribly. There was opportunity for them to do very well had they acted early. But  I’m not that optimistic about the situation in Canada. I think it’s being mismanaged here as well..

 

The federal heath minister just said there’s no reason to doubt Chinese #s. It’s a conspiracy that Chinese #s are higher..

 

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-health-minister-says-canada-has-no-evidence-that-china-is-under/

 

I trust muscle 10x more than China or Trudeau.

 

You're completely right to trust Muscleman - kudos to that guy for telling the truth at his own personal risk.

 

https://www.dailywire.com/news/washington-post-evidence-coming-out-of-wuhan-suggests-real-death-toll-over-40000

 

That China is really doing a bang-up job containing CV ! 

 

Washington Post: ‘Evidence’ Coming Out Of Wuhan Suggests Real Death Toll Over 40,000

[ERICOPOLY]

Projected 3,000 to 15,000 deaths in Ontario.. More than Hubei province in China, up to 5x more. How is Trudeau/Ford govt managing this well?

 

I think you're not really interested in an answer. If I'm wrong, the answer has been all over this thread. Go look it up.

 

I'm surprised that you have so much faith in the transparency of the Chinese Communist Party in sharing the number of deaths.

 

(It's still noteworthy that USA has a 5x per capita death rate compared to Canada. If you think Canada's managing this poorly, you must think that the USA is managing this horrendously.)

 

Aren’t they projecting 150k deaths in the US? US definitely managed this horribly. There was opportunity for them to do very well had they acted early. But  I’m not that optimistic about the situation in Canada. I think it’s being mismanaged here as well..

 

The federal heath minister just said there’s no reason to doubt Chinese #s. It’s a conspiracy that Chinese #s are higher..

 

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-health-minister-says-canada-has-no-evidence-that-china-is-under/

 

I trust muscle 10x more than China or Trudeau.

 

You're completely right to trust Muscleman - kudos to that guy for telling the truth at his own personal risk.

 

https://www.dailywire.com/news/washington-post-evidence-coming-out-of-wuhan-suggests-real-death-toll-over-40000

 

That China is really doing a bang-up job containing CV ! 

 

Washington Post: ‘Evidence’ Coming Out Of Wuhan Suggests Real Death Toll Over 40,000

 

What is Muscleman's personal risk?

[StubbleJumper]

Lol...that escalated quickly. But don't you go calling my city a "shithole" when thousands are dying and you and your POTUS having screwed us over by minimizing this crisis as recently as weeks ago. So many quality posts by that individual on this forum ("money honeys"??) and stratospheric levels of arrogance+confidence.

 

Friday night. Happy hour time. Out for the night with my pile of degenerates in "the shithole". Peace.

 

 

You are still allowed to go out for Happy Hour in NYC?  I am gobsmacked.

[mcliu]

Projected 3,000 to 15,000 deaths in Ontario.. More than Hubei province in China, up to 5x more. How is Trudeau/Ford govt managing this well?

 

I think you're not really interested in an answer. If I'm wrong, the answer has been all over this thread. Go look it up.

 

I'm surprised that you have so much faith in the transparency of the Chinese Communist Party in sharing the number of deaths.

 

(It's still noteworthy that USA has a 5x per capita death rate compared to Canada. If you think Canada's managing this poorly, you must think that the USA is managing this horrendously.)

 

Aren’t they projecting 150k deaths in the US? US definitely managed this horribly. There was opportunity for them to do very well had they acted early. But  I’m not that optimistic about the situation in Canada. I think it’s being mismanaged here as well..

 

The federal heath minister just said there’s no reason to doubt Chinese #s. It’s a conspiracy that Chinese #s are higher..

 

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-health-minister-says-canada-has-no-evidence-that-china-is-under/

 

I trust muscle 10x more than China or Trudeau.

 

Yeah, that's my point. This whole time Trudeau & co has been managing this crisis on the guidance of WHO and Chinese data. Hence, no travel ban, no masks, encouraging people to go out in February/early-March etc. That's why I felt it was mismanaged here.

 

Early contact tracing seems to have worked for a while, but it was a delay, which should have been used to ramp up mass testing, PPE/ventilator production, hospital beds and hard lockdown, etc. But it seems like they've blown the lead.

 

Even data collection has been weak. Cases figures don't add up. ICU's nearing capacity, but no exact bed count. Nothing like the data that NY state's been providing in Cuomo's briefings.

[Gregmal]

Lol...that escalated quickly. But don't you go calling my city a "shithole" when thousands are dying and you and your POTUS having screwed us over by minimizing this crisis as recently as weeks ago. So many quality posts by that individual on this forum ("money honeys"??) and stratospheric levels of arrogance+confidence.

 

Friday night. Happy hour time. Out for the night with my pile of degenerates in "the shithole". Peace.

 

 

You are still allowed to go out for Happy Hour in NYC?  I am gobsmacked.

 

Its Trump's fault. Or Dalal is lying(something he s been called out on here for).

[mcliu]

-Follow-up to StubbleJumper and orthopa about expectations in Ontario (largest province in Canada) and potential implications.

They have just released data, 'projections' and rationale for policy making (see slides):

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-covid-projections-1.5519575

 

Projected 3,000 to 15,000 deaths in Ontario.. More than Hubei province in China, up to 5x more. How is Trudeau/Ford govt managing this well?

 

3,000 to 15,000 deaths is an estimate over the course of the entire pandemic. Ontario model estimates that it may last up to 2 years (multiple waves).

 

Do you have Hubei estimate for the entire pandemic? What is their estimate for the pandemic duration?

 

I agree with you that Ontario is not managing all that well. However, you don't need to spin the numbers to make your case.

 

Sorry, not trying to spin #s. I was just looking at slide 13 and it says over course of pandemic, doesn't list any assumptions. No idea about Hubei #s. Officially ~3000 deaths and pandemic basically over. Estimates over 10x those #s, who knows. Keep in mind there's 4x the population of Ontario and higher density.

 

Also, Ontario currently has more deaths than Quebec but only half the # of cases?

[samwise]

This is interesting data, even if it is totally creepy that Google has it.

 

https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/

 

Thanks for sharing.

They have it at individual level, but can only present aggregated results for privacy reasons.

I will repeat that this is useful information for contact tracing at an individual level.

 

This data is really good.

Both NY and Ontario are doing a terrible job compared to Italy, as of March 29th.

 

Italy park visits are down 90%, but in NY only 47%, and Ontario only 14%... as of March 29th!!!!

 

I know we just came out of the freezer and everyone wants to go out.. but only a 14% drop in park visits ? India is down 57%,, probably because the government has scared people much more.

 

Italy retail and recreation visits are down 94%, but NY is at 62%, and Ontario at 59%. Who are these 40% of people still going to "places like restaurants, cafes, shopping centers, theme parks, museums, libraries, and movie theaters."