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samwise

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  1. ok, mandate may be a bad word choice here. but question remains, what's the plan for the cash? Greg decides the next big elephant to buy?
  2. What happens to the cash after WB ? dividends, more buybacks, or do Todd and Ted or Greg wait for the next big market opportunity? Do they have the mandate to deploy that many billions?
  3. Thanks @Spooky. agreed that mothership is much more diversified . Interesting idea that concentrating in a single vertical would require higher multiples. Could you please point me to the letter are you referring to?
  4. @Spooky I have a big position in CSU as well (nowhere close to 50% though). And am considering increasing it with some new money. But I feel like TOI , LMN could have more runway and upside with the same culture and practices. Wondering if you agree? With such a large CSU position you must have considered the baby CSUs.
  5. This is probably the main "value-add" of investment advisors, the kind that put you in balanced ETFs and don't promise to beat the market. If you can't do this on your own, then you will lose more than the 1% you are paying them. If you can do it, then the 1% is a waste.
  6. Thanks Longlake. Crazy commissions! But it seems that's only European exchanges, not HK and Australia?
  7. Does BMO investorline allow foreign stocks in Hong Kong, Australia and London? Anyone has experience with these? E.g. buying the HK listing of Tencent or Alibaba. If yes, what is the cost per trade? Their website only mentions TSX, NYSE and NASDAQ.
  8. Financial Times published an article after the merger of Athene (insurance) and Apollo (Private equity), asking "Is this the new Berkshire?". Of course there were lots of protests in the comments. This was the most liked comment: " This is like saying Dracula is the same as the Red Cross , just because they both deal in blood."
  9. Want a 51% CAGR since the start of this thread? This is the way :) http://www.nonamestocks.com/p/portfolio-performance.html But 1. Only the poor man shall pass. I doubt you can put a million in this portfolio, and you certainly cannot sell your whole position on 2 hour spikes in the price. 2. You need the force with you, i.e. lots of luck, since the performance comes from a few stocks. Miss those and your returns may not be so good. Also if you sell them too early.
  10. CGJB, are you familiar with the Japanese recruitment market? I've never understood it, as it seems hardly anyone applies to a job (don't want to get rejected?) and everything is arranged behind the scenes by recruitment companies. Some of these companies are very hands-on and growing quickly, e.g. 2124 was cheap during Covid at 10% FCF yield and 20% growth at 30% ROE. And then there are pure online companies as well, which don't really seem to fit in the culture. I don't think of Japan as a fast growing economy, but seems like the recruitment market is changing perhaps? Are people moving jobs more often maybe? Not sure where this growth for recruitment firms is coming from. If you know anything about the Japanese recruitment market, I'd appreciate your views. Sorry to hijack the thread. We could move this to another thread if there is much to say.
  11. Thanks CB for the detailed reply. Very interesting perspective for those of us not involved in running hospitals.
  12. The market seems to be seeing through the coming months of viral pain, just as it looks through any natural disaster which has high human costs but lower long term economic costs. So the following questions are more out of curiosity than investment impact. Many doctors have posted here, so maybe someone knows more about whats happening. 1. NM hit 102% ICU capacity. What does this mean? Are staff working 1.02 shifts? Could they work 2 shifts? 100% doesn't seem to be a real hard limit. https://news.yahoo.com/intensive-care-units-hospitals-coronavirus-pandemic-health-human-services-report-202137966.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAMIvCKGM_DZzdARm4PBZQPw9v5c7skbhTqwAHGTo0B3B0dN_VoKnBoa82VuexpuEVdS_KAgn6jc7SIiDRt0WLkiEb9mNqlc0TiO9Em4bhpMNUYLq0jxqYAsbQXlfPtzuzESS8d54JBy17r2WUKoQOPF7Gc5Weg00nILQDJPoFbzw 2. Assuming there is a real limit somewhere, and demand and supply of ICU beds needs to be cleared, what approach do US hospitals take? Who gets the limited supply of ICU beds a) The one who has the money , aka free market solution? b) The one who knows the governor, aka corruption, nepotism... c) Some triage, aka the one most likely to survive and live many years? Who makes this judgement and sentences people to death? 3. IF the capacity/supply constraint is not physical beds but staff, can't that be imported from areas in the world where the pandemic is more controlled? e.g. Aus, NZ, S Korea, China. Staff can be flown in from there. You'd need to ask nicely and give the right incentives, but not sure if there are any other constraints. Hospitals can't take the medical malpractice legal risk perhaps? Still seems better to me than letting people die in the corridors.
  13. Passing on from a health expert. “95% efficacy is the stuff of dreams, where you dream about eradication of the disease rather than just containment. E.g. MMR vaccines are 97% efficacy against measles, and the disease hardly exists anymore. And that’s when measles has R0 of over 15. “ So depending on how long immunity lasts and how fast the virus mutates, it might not become endemic.
  14. Yes I think that’s a good way to frame it: the idea itself may be valid, but there may be limits to how far you can take it. Reminds me of the quote by Ben Graham. You can get in more trouble with a good idea because you forget that the good idea has limits. Russian communism could be thought of as an example of this. If you see a system with one Tsar and everyone else a serf, it’s easy to get a good idea that more equity would be better. One can take that idea too far. There is probably a balance and an optimal level of inequality and opportunity. I disagree if you are talking about value investing theories and practices. Change is required periodically maybe, but not always. If it were always required the framework would be useless since you would be reevaluating it everyday, instead of using it for evaluating companies. The punchcard approach works when searching for competitively advantaged growth companies. There aren’t as many as reading VIC would lead you to believe. Graham and Schloss didn’t use that approach. It doesn’t work for cigarbutt investing ( yes, pun intended)
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