EliG Posted April 3, 2020 Posted April 3, 2020 -Follow-up to StubbleJumper and orthopa about expectations in Ontario (largest province in Canada) and potential implications. They have just released data, 'projections' and rationale for policy making (see slides): https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-covid-projections-1.5519575 Projected 3,000 to 15,000 deaths in Ontario.. More than Hubei province in China, up to 5x more. How is Trudeau/Ford govt managing this well? 3,000 to 15,000 deaths is an estimate over the course of the entire pandemic. Ontario model estimates that it may last up to 2 years (multiple waves). Do you have Hubei estimate for the entire pandemic? What is their estimate for the pandemic duration? I agree with you that Ontario is not managing all that well. However, you don't need to spin the numbers to make your case. Sorry, not trying to spin #s. I was just looking at slide 13 and it says over course of pandemic, doesn't list any assumptions. No idea about Hubei #s. Officially ~3000 deaths and pandemic basically over. Estimates over 10x those #s, who knows. Keep in mind there's 4x the population of Ontario and higher density. Also, Ontario currently has more deaths than Quebec but only half the # of cases? 1. Yeah, the slides don't show the expected duration. They discussed it in today's briefing. They expect 18-24 months for the full pandemic. 2. No one believes Chinese stats. You can easily make a case that Ontario is not doing well without invoking bogus Chinese numbers. 3. There is no way that Hubei pandemic is over. They will have multiple waves just like everyone else. 4. Ontario is under-testing compared to Quebec by a factor of ~3x. See this: He is professor of epidemiology at UofT.
LongHaul Posted April 3, 2020 Posted April 3, 2020 That is a powerful video. That lady who coughed, killed him. Really sad.
StubbleJumper Posted April 3, 2020 Posted April 3, 2020 -Follow-up to StubbleJumper and orthopa about expectations in Ontario (largest province in Canada) and potential implications. They have just released data, 'projections' and rationale for policy making (see slides): https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-covid-projections-1.5519575 Projected 3,000 to 15,000 deaths in Ontario.. More than Hubei province in China, up to 5x more. How is Trudeau/Ford govt managing this well? 3,000 to 15,000 deaths is an estimate over the course of the entire pandemic. Ontario model estimates that it may last up to 2 years (multiple waves). Do you have Hubei estimate for the entire pandemic? What is their estimate for the pandemic duration? I agree with you that Ontario is not managing all that well. However, you don't need to spin the numbers to make your case. Sorry, not trying to spin #s. I was just looking at slide 13 and it says over course of pandemic, doesn't list any assumptions. No idea about Hubei #s. Officially ~3000 deaths and pandemic basically over. Estimates over 10x those #s, who knows. Keep in mind there's 4x the population of Ontario and higher density. Also, Ontario currently has more deaths than Quebec but only half the # of cases? Caution with the Ontario death numbers. Of the 67 covid deaths in Ontario, 21 of them are related to a single, small outbreak at the nursing home in Bobcaygeon. Those 21 deaths do not necessarily reflect that the virus is widespread, but rather that the virus happened to hit in a very bad place. Doesn't mean that the federal and provincial governments are doing a good job or a bad job, it's just a sad event in Bobcaygeon. SJ
LC Posted April 3, 2020 Posted April 3, 2020 NYC showing about 50% positive rates on testing https://media.nbcnewyork.com/assets/editorial/national/coronavirus/local-maps/nyc-zip.html
rb Posted April 3, 2020 Posted April 3, 2020 After hearing the White House say critical supplies are going to commercial distributors who are then selling them to the states which are begging for help, I called [General] @ltgrusselhonore who commanded federal troops after Hurricane Katrina to get his reaction. Watch this: Yea. Logistics is hard. Who knew? ::) Wouldn't it be nice if the US actually had a government? Like people who knew what they were doing? These guys are managing a national emergency, the only way they know how. Tweets, changing websites, checking their ratings. Shit show. You have the Pats flying masks from China on their team's 767. Oh and they can't bring as many as they're available cause the plane can't carry it. Wouldn't it be nice if the US had some sort of organization who's job it was to carry shit from one place to another. Something that may resemble this for example: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_Mobility_Command
LC Posted April 3, 2020 Posted April 3, 2020 Wouldn't it be nice if the US had some sort of organization who's job it was to carry shit from one place to another. Something that may resemble this for example: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_Mobility_Command I was looking at this (first I ever heard of it) and I was thinking, if I was president and this happened, how would I deal with it? Just from a pure federal resource-allocation perspective, how does DT communicate what he wants, and how does it get done? Well I'd imagine you have a circle of lieutenants, and they each over see a federal department, and under those departments you've got 5-10 units of which something like the Air Force or CDC is one of. So I'm thinking, OK if I'm president I would need people exploring treatment/vaccine solutions; I would need purchasing/manufacturing of PPE and test kits, I would need distribution for all this, I would need projections for the needs of the states in order to allocate, etc. etc. etc. And so I keep thinking (already my brain is hurting at this point), well if we've got this Air Mobility Command, I'm sure there are a bunch of these specialized groups within various departments who are best suited towards these tasks. So I don't expect the president to have all these answers, they depend on their own lieutenants to know these things. Whichever one of Trump's guys took over Department XYZ for example should know all the capabilities of that Department, so he would get the job of procuring PPE from overseas, as an example. And finally I remember reading that Michael Lewis article about a year ago, where he interviews the guys running the Dept of Energy. They were transitioning from Obama's administration to Trump's administration. And they were saying how they prepared entire dossiers for Trump's guy, as a primer to get to know the DOE. And I remember them just absolutely befuddled at how little Trump's lieutenant cared about any of it. They made a big deal about it, which at the time I was reading it I thought, "well OK that's pretty stupid, but as long as these guys are still running the DOE, at least they still know all this stuff and can keep the mission-critical stuff functioning, despite zero interest from the White House". Well now I realize that this same story probably happened all across the federal government. And I'm thinking, well if DT is sitting there in some situation room and trying to allocate tasks and resources - well the people he assigned to these various federal departments probably have zero clue what their own dept. is capable of. I guess it's a long-winded explanation of how unsurprising I am that there is a total lack of federal coordination. It's not just Trump - it's people like Trump all the way down in his administration, and that's kind of frightening.
vinod1 Posted April 3, 2020 Posted April 3, 2020 After hearing the White House say critical supplies are going to commercial distributors who are then selling them to the states which are begging for help, I called [General] @ltgrusselhonore who commanded federal troops after Hurricane Katrina to get his reaction. Watch this: Yea. Logistics is hard. Who knew? ::) Wouldn't it be nice if the US actually had a government? Like people who knew what they were doing? These guys are managing a national emergency, the only way they know how. Tweets, changing websites, checking their ratings. Shit show. You have the Pats flying masks from China on their team's 767. Oh and they can't bring as many as they're available cause the plane can't carry it. Wouldn't it be nice if the US had some sort of organization who's job it was to carry shit from one place to another. Something that may resemble this for example: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_Mobility_Command What? You do not want to give credit to Trump for this? He need not have given them landing rights for the plane. Vinod
Liberty Posted April 3, 2020 Posted April 3, 2020 And while they're holding the federal stockpile for when a swing state needs it, they're also doing this: https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/3m-says-white-house-asked-it-stop-exporting-u-s-made-respirators-to-canada-1.1416965
cwericb Posted April 3, 2020 Posted April 3, 2020 That is a slap in the face to all Canadians by Trump.
LongHaul Posted April 4, 2020 Posted April 4, 2020 New study. Quick summary: masks very significantly reduce virus droplets in the air. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0843-2 "We detected coronavirus in respiratory droplets and aerosols in 3 of 10 (30%) and 4 of 10 (40%) of the samples collected without face masks, respectively, but did not detect any virus in respiratory droplets or aerosols collected from participants wearing face masks, this difference was significant in aerosols and showed a trend toward reduced detection in respiratory droplets (Table 1b)" Wear a mask.
Dalal.Holdings Posted April 4, 2020 Posted April 4, 2020 After hearing the White House say critical supplies are going to commercial distributors who are then selling them to the states which are begging for help, I called [General] @ltgrusselhonore who commanded federal troops after Hurricane Katrina to get his reaction. Watch this: Yea. Logistics is hard. Who knew? ::) Wouldn't it be nice if the US actually had a government? Like people who knew what they were doing? These guys are managing a national emergency, the only way they know how. Tweets, changing websites, checking their ratings. Shit show. You have the Pats flying masks from China on their team's 767. Oh and they can't bring as many as they're available cause the plane can't carry it. Wouldn't it be nice if the US had some sort of organization who's job it was to carry shit from one place to another. Something that may resemble this for example: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_Mobility_Command What? You do not want to give credit to Trump for this? He need not have given them landing rights for the plane. Vinod True, Trump should get credit for any success, but any failure (such as in "shithole NYC" belongs to local/state leaders of course). In his playbook and his devout followers' MO. After all, Bill De Blasio and the governor of WA are where the buck stops when it comes to CDC/FDA botching testing in January/Feb. Don't they oversee these agencies? And who's this Cuomo guy and what's he doing? Jared Kushner knows better. Watching this thread get invaded by Trump apologist brigade who have been repeatedly wrong in predicting magnitude of this crisis (watching Hannity is bad for your brain cells, folks), and now excuse their leader because "no one could have seen this!" Garbage in, garbage out is what you get--the brigade is here! Enjoy their astute analyses that they bring from their politics section...
RichardGibbons Posted April 4, 2020 Posted April 4, 2020 And while they're holding the federal stockpile for when a swing state needs it, they're also doing this: https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/3m-says-white-house-asked-it-stop-exporting-u-s-made-respirators-to-canada-1.1416965 The fun thing is that two can play this game. The pulp used to make the N95 masks comes from BC. It's not the right move for Canada to effectively kill a bunch of American healthcare workers just because Trump wants to do things that will kill a bunch of Canadian healthcare workers. But then again, if you're playing a game of iterative Prisoner's Dilemma, and your opponent keeps choosing betray, the right option is to start choosing betray as well, and keep doing it until the other side realizes that co-operation has better outcomes than betrayal. So is the right long-term option for Canada to halt America's production of N95 masks?
Casey Posted April 4, 2020 Posted April 4, 2020 After hearing the White House say critical supplies are going to commercial distributors who are then selling them to the states which are begging for help, I called [General] @ltgrusselhonore who commanded federal troops after Hurricane Katrina to get his reaction. Watch this: Yea. Logistics is hard. Who knew? ::) Wouldn't it be nice if the US actually had a government? Like people who knew what they were doing? These guys are managing a national emergency, the only way they know how. Tweets, changing websites, checking their ratings. Shit show. You have the Pats flying masks from China on their team's 767. Oh and they can't bring as many as they're available cause the plane can't carry it. Wouldn't it be nice if the US had some sort of organization who's job it was to carry shit from one place to another. Something that may resemble this for example: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_Mobility_Command What? You do not want to give credit to Trump for this? He need not have given them landing rights for the plane. Vinod True, Trump should get credit for any success, but any failure (such as in "shithole NYC" belongs to local/state leaders of course). In his playbook and his devout followers' MO. After all, Bill De Blasio and the governor of WA are where the buck stops when it comes to CDC/FDA botching testing in January/Feb. Don't they oversee these agencies? And who's this Cuomo guy and what's he doing? Jared Kushner knows better. Watching this thread get invaded by Trump apologist brigade who have been repeatedly wrong in predicting magnitude of this crisis (watching Hannity is bad for your brain cells, folks), and now excuse their leader because "no one could have seen this!" Garbage in, garbage out is what you get--the brigade is here! Enjoy their astute analyses that they bring from their politics section... FWIW, I think it is better to not reply back to things that are obviously not-constructive (while it can be tempting). Takes up much less space in the thread, and in your brain. Cheers.
Castanza Posted April 4, 2020 Posted April 4, 2020 https://www.factcheck.org/2020/03/false-claim-about-cdcs-global-anti-pandemic-work/
Dalal.Holdings Posted April 4, 2020 Posted April 4, 2020 FWIW, I think it is better to not reply back to things that are obviously not-constructive (while it can be tempting). Takes up much less space in the thread, and in your brain. Cheers. Most definitely going to have to be my new MO on here. Too much time I’ve wasted on responding to the “not-constructive” posts. Goes back to Vinod’s “why debate them if in their mind he does no wrong” POV.
cwericb Posted April 4, 2020 Posted April 4, 2020 “The fun thing is that two can play this game. The pulp used to make the N95 masks comes from BC. It's not the right move for Canada to effectively kill a bunch of American healthcare workers just because Trump wants to do things that will kill a bunch of Canadian healthcare workers.” So Trump orders 3M not to send masks to Canada to protect our doctors and nurses. BUT.. I believe 3,000 CANADIAN nurses and health care workers cross the border every day from Windsor to staff Detroit hospitals. What happens if they stay home? Or perhaps Canada should dim the lights in New York and Boston just to remind them where a lot of their power comes from. I could go on
cwericb Posted April 4, 2020 Posted April 4, 2020 I have always had the utmost respect for our American neighbours, but boy is it wearing thin. So far this week, he wanted to mass troops on the border. (For what to keep Americans in?) Now he orders 3M not to supply us with any masks to protect our health workers. Remember when Canada took in hundreds of stranded US planes on 9/11? Sent troops to die alongside US soldiers in Afghanistan? Sent help to New Orleans after Katrina? Donald Trump clearly doesn't.
Gregmal Posted April 4, 2020 Posted April 4, 2020 I have always had the utmost respect for our American neighbours, but boy is it wearing thin. So far this week, he wanted to mass troops on the border. (For what to keep Americans in?) Now he orders 3M not to supply us with any masks to protect our health workers. Remember when Canada took in hundreds of stranded US planes on 9/11? Sent troops to die alongside US soldiers in Afghanistan? Sent help to New Orleans after Katrina? Donald Trump clearly doesn't. Optically it’s pretty poor taste. But reality is most of the equipment in terms of supplies is probably coming from China anyway. Some shit, huh? The reason Trump became a great politician is the reason he s the wrong leader for unique times like now. It’s always about winning with him. He will play to win at all costs. Right now, nobody cares about winning, they’re just trying to survive. Hence he comes off like an animal.
zippy1 Posted April 4, 2020 Posted April 4, 2020 Projected 3,000 to 15,000 deaths in Ontario.. More than Hubei province in China, up to 5x more. How is Trudeau/Ford govt managing this well? I think you're not really interested in an answer. If I'm wrong, the answer has been all over this thread. Go look it up. I'm surprised that you have so much faith in the transparency of the Chinese Communist Party in sharing the number of deaths. (It's still noteworthy that USA has a 5x per capita death rate compared to Canada. If you think Canada's managing this poorly, you must think that the USA is managing this horrendously.) Aren’t they projecting 150k deaths in the US? US definitely managed this horribly. There was opportunity for them to do very well had they acted early. But I’m not that optimistic about the situation in Canada. I think it’s being mismanaged here as well.. The federal heath minister just said there’s no reason to doubt Chinese #s. It’s a conspiracy that Chinese #s are higher.. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-health-minister-says-canada-has-no-evidence-that-china-is-under/ I trust muscle 10x more than China or Trudeau. You're completely right to trust Muscleman - kudos to that guy for telling the truth at his own personal risk. https://www.dailywire.com/news/washington-post-evidence-coming-out-of-wuhan-suggests-real-death-toll-over-40000 That China is really doing a bang-up job containing CV ! Washington Post: ‘Evidence’ Coming Out Of Wuhan Suggests Real Death Toll Over 40,000 What is Muscleman's personal risk? He was from Wuhan and still has friends (probably family members) living there.
ERICOPOLY Posted April 4, 2020 Posted April 4, 2020 Projected 3,000 to 15,000 deaths in Ontario.. More than Hubei province in China, up to 5x more. How is Trudeau/Ford govt managing this well? I think you're not really interested in an answer. If I'm wrong, the answer has been all over this thread. Go look it up. I'm surprised that you have so much faith in the transparency of the Chinese Communist Party in sharing the number of deaths. (It's still noteworthy that USA has a 5x per capita death rate compared to Canada. If you think Canada's managing this poorly, you must think that the USA is managing this horrendously.) Aren’t they projecting 150k deaths in the US? US definitely managed this horribly. There was opportunity for them to do very well had they acted early. But I’m not that optimistic about the situation in Canada. I think it’s being mismanaged here as well.. The federal heath minister just said there’s no reason to doubt Chinese #s. It’s a conspiracy that Chinese #s are higher.. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-health-minister-says-canada-has-no-evidence-that-china-is-under/ I trust muscle 10x more than China or Trudeau. You're completely right to trust Muscleman - kudos to that guy for telling the truth at his own personal risk. https://www.dailywire.com/news/washington-post-evidence-coming-out-of-wuhan-suggests-real-death-toll-over-40000 That China is really doing a bang-up job containing CV ! Washington Post: ‘Evidence’ Coming Out Of Wuhan Suggests Real Death Toll Over 40,000 What is Muscleman's personal risk? He was from Wuhan and still has friends (probably family members) living there. I know that aspect of it. However he is anonymous. I doubt he would knowingly put them at risk for a message board; he is a former (or maybe still current) MSFT employee (not a dumbass).
LC Posted April 4, 2020 Posted April 4, 2020 What the absolute hell is this nonsense: https://morningstaronline.co.uk/article/w/us-blocks-medical-aid-to-cuba-in-show-of-wild-west-brutality “Cuba denounces the fact that medical supplies from Alibaba Foundation to help combat Covid-19 have not arrived in the country due to the criminal US blockade against the island nation,” President Miguel Canel-Diaz blasted. More than two million masks, 400,000 rapid diagnostic kits and 104 ventilators have been donated by China’s Alibaba Foundation to fight the spread of the coronavirus pandemic. The supplies were destined for 24 countries in the region including Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Ecuador, the Dominican Republic and Peru. But they were blocked from the socialist island because of the crippling US embargo, in particular the Helms-Burton Act, according to Cuba’s ambassador to China, Miguel Pereira Hernandez.
SHDL Posted April 4, 2020 Posted April 4, 2020 It appears that some people are now seriously looking into whether (certain strains of) the BCG vaccine could “work” against Covid-19. See, for instance, the following blog post and the referenced links: https://www.jsatonotes.com/2020/03/if-i-were-north-americaneuropeanaustral.html From the NYT today: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/03/health/coronavirus-bcg-vaccine.html Personally I think I got the virus a few weeks ago but had only relatively mild symptoms (headache, fever, fatigue, body aches) — and if the hypothesis here is true I may have the BCG shot I got years ago when I was living overseas to thank for that.
John Hjorth Posted April 4, 2020 Posted April 4, 2020 What the absolute hell is this nonsense: https://morningstaronline.co.uk/article/w/us-blocks-medical-aid-to-cuba-in-show-of-wild-west-brutality ... Somebody working somewhere without using the inside of the head. Good that we have an active press worldwide, so absurdities like this get coverage, and thereby likely will be corrected swiftly.
minten Posted April 4, 2020 Posted April 4, 2020 Personally I think I got the virus a few weeks ago but had only relatively mild symptoms (headache, fever, fatigue, body aches) Still, this is the exact same thing an enormous amount of the world population is saying right now, with a typical country only having 0.1% or so positively diagnosed. Either, most of us have gotten it already (could be but not that likely), or most of us are super-aware of our bodies because of the news and just had some sort of a flu we perhaps never really would have noticed if not for the corona crisis (more likely).
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