Coronavirus

[abyli]

When my two relatives were running around hoping to get hospitalized, they saw a doctor's family member infected, and was told by the doctor that he has to go home because there is no bed. So how do you expect the doctor to have mood to hospitalize strangers?

 

Yes, what you said is true. The one big issue is the doctors do not have enough supplies, the doctors and nurses do not have enough masks and eye protectors! The government say we do not accept overseas donations, but the doctors and nurses everywhere are crying online for international help!

[abyli]

When my two relatives were running around hoping to get hospitalized, they saw a doctor's family member infected, and was told by the doctor that he has to go home because there is no bed. So how do you expect the doctor to have mood to hospitalize strangers?

 

Yes, what you said is true. The one big issue is the doctors do not have enough supplies, the doctors and nurses do not have enough masks and eye protectors! The government say we do not accept overseas donations, but the doctors and nurses everywhere are crying online for international help!

 

This is just one:

 

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/r0MgCEtpYRocZECSPcpDXA

 

The doctors have no masks, no eye protections, no food!

 

My WeChat: abyli333

[sleepydragon]

When my two relatives were running around hoping to get hospitalized, they saw a doctor's family member infected, and was told by the doctor that he has to go home because there is no bed. So how do you expect the doctor to have mood to hospitalize strangers?

 

Yes, what you said is true. The one big issue is the doctors do not have enough supplies, the doctors and nurses do not have enough masks and eye protectors! The government say we do not accept overseas donations, but the doctors and nurses everywhere are crying online for international help!

 

This is just one:

 

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/r0MgCEtpYRocZECSPcpDXA

 

The doctors have no masks, no eye protections, no food!

 

[gokou3]

I am from Wuhan and I have lots of friends and relatives there. I could tell you this: If you trust the government's stats of 500 infections and 17 deaths, it is no different from buying Chinese stocks merely based on their financial reports. All fake numbers.

The actual number is likely in the 100k range.

Right now even the doctors ran out of masks and gloves and are working unprotected. I don't know how much longer they can last before they are down.

I have 3 relatives infected. One staying at home, and two who spent 6 days going to each hospital to try to get hospitalized. They were all told one thing: We don't have resources for you. Go home. They finally got hospitalized yesterday. Think about it. That's after they are diagnosed positive. They are walking on the streets for 6 days while spreading the virus everywhere, with no hospital taking them in.

There are thousands and thousands of such patients.

There are also dead bodies everywhere in all hospitals. They are dead on the floor and for hours, no one comes to pick the bodies up. When they do get picked up, they are immediately sent to the funeral to be burned, without any diagnose of whether they got infected by this virus or else. Therefore the 17 death is just a joke.

 

Lol what? How were they diagnosed BEFORE being hospitalized?

 

Why not? They come to the hospital, wait for 5 hours while infecting all other patients waiting in line (and being infected as well). Then they met the doctor, who asked the nurse to do a series of lab testing for them. Then results show positive. And doctor says sorry we don't have any beds for you today. Go home and try to come here again tomorrow to see if we have any empty beds.

 

Your story sounds like a whole load of BS. There is absolutely no way the hospital is letting an infected victim just go home. They’ll house them in tents if there aren’t any beds and keep them quarantined.

 

Your comment is like adding salt to the wound. You have no respect and no sympathy for my relatives and for people who got infected.

You don't have to believe anything I said. Just go there and look at it yourself.

 

Thanks Muscleman for telling your story; much appreciated and hope you can provide more updates in the next little while.  It's sad but not surprised to read about what is happening on the ground.  Speedy recovery for your families.

 

 

P.S. Ignore the ignorant.

 

[LC]

Take photos, spread the news. The world needs to know the humanitarian crisis that is developing. If this as bad as it sounds, it will need a coordinated effort to solve.

[muscleman]

Take photos, spread the news. The world needs to know the humanitarian crisis that is developing. If this as bad as it sounds, it will need a coordinated effort to solve.

 

Plenty of photos here collected by abyli. Empty supply bins for masks, gloves and eye goggles.

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/r0MgCEtpYRocZECSPcpDXA

 

I also have photos of dead bodies on the ground in the hospital for hours with no one taking care of. They are covered by white cloth so I can tell they are already dead.

While at the same time, I have a photo of the Provincial Governor on TV saying that they have plenty of supply and there is nothing to worry about!

[fareastwarriors]

Take photos, spread the news. The world needs to know the humanitarian crisis that is developing. If this as bad as it sounds, it will need a coordinated effort to solve.

 

Plenty of photos here collected by abyli. Empty supply bins for masks, gloves and eye goggles.

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/r0MgCEtpYRocZECSPcpDXA

 

I also have photos of dead bodies on the ground in the hospital for hours with no one taking care of. They are covered by white cloth so I can tell they are already dead.

While at the same time, I have a photo of the Provincial Governor on TV saying that they have plenty of supply and there is nothing to worry about!

 

I hope your relatives will be okay. I'm a fob myself and have plenty of relatives there but in Guangdong.

 

People outside of China don't know, but you can't really trust anything there.

Stay safe people!

[Cigarbutt]

As with many phenomena, there are fundamental and sentimental aspects. There is an underlying core of real disease activity and potential outcomes with, in the early stages, a potentially significant amount of uncertainty. The role of public authority is paramount but difficult. Vigilance needs to be raised but mass hysteria is just around the corner. The most relevant comparable is the SARS episode (2002-3). It's interesting to remember that the 'crisis' had revealed weak aspects of China's governance resulting in a significant turnover in high level officials. China then was criticized for hesitations and lack of transparency. I wonder if they are not doing too much in a way (massive quarantine orders, building a hospital in a few days). It's also interesting to remember that, during the SARS epidemic, Vietnam had done much better than Canada, in terms of handling the fundamental and sentimental aspects of the problem, despite allocating much less ressources.

 

If you have a personal connection somehow, some part of the information-gathering exercise should perhaps involve periodic checks on official sites (CDC-like etc) and a review of the SARS episode may provide some perspective.

https://www.who.int/whr/2003/en/Chapter5.pdf

If you don't have a personal connection and feel anxiety, nonspecific internet exposure may not be the best way to alleviate concerns.

[SharperDingaan]

Some things to keep in mind:

 

This is China. Asian culture.

We may think it out of place in this situation, but 'face saving' will be a material factor.

 

Building a 1,000 bed hospital in a week, really means a big cluster of multiple tents and MASH units, in one place. Behind closed tent, isolation wards and morgues in one big city. Where are the rest of them? and where are the pictures of the 'cured' people walking out of them? 

 

Canceling new year, clamping down on chunyun, quaranteing 30M people in major cities, is not a minor response. It is what was typically done in Europe, during plague and cholera outbreaks. Medicine, and our response to outbreaks is a lot better today, but there are still a lot of bodies. Limits ability to contain panic. 

 

A published, and fully decoded viral gene sequence within days is unusual. Could be just serendipity and hard work, but it could also be something already known, that escaped a lab somewhere. We will never know, but assume the worst.

 

The Asian Development Bank looked at the economic impact of SARS in a number of East and Southeast Asian economies, and explored the short-term economic impact of SARS as well as the channels through which the Impact of SARS was felt. Page 2 of the report; The impact of SARS critically depends on (i) the seriousness of SARS, (ii) the duration of SARS, and (iii) the structure of an economy, particularly the importance of service industries in GDP. https://www.adb.org/publications/sars-economic-impacts-and-implications

 

In 2020, we are probably looking at LESS of an economic impact. Nervousness spread by internet, just makes it look scarier.

Yet according to some markets ... the Chinese economy is about to fall apart because of this?

Opportunity is knocking?

 

SD

[Spekulatius]

Take photos, spread the news. The world needs to know the humanitarian crisis that is developing. If this as bad as it sounds, it will need a coordinated effort to solve.

 

Plenty of photos here collected by abyli. Empty supply bins for masks, gloves and eye goggles.

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/r0MgCEtpYRocZECSPcpDXA

 

I also have photos of dead bodies on the ground in the hospital for hours with no one taking care of. They are covered by white cloth so I can tell they are already dead.

While at the same time, I have a photo of the Provincial Governor on TV saying that they have plenty of supply and there is nothing to worry about!

 

Best of wishes to your relatives. My wife (who speaks some Chinese) also looked at some news and told me that it looks quite concerning and that I should look into 3M stock.

[Castanza]

Take photos, spread the news. The world needs to know the humanitarian crisis that is developing. If this as bad as it sounds, it will need a coordinated effort to solve.

 

Plenty of photos here collected by abyli. Empty supply bins for masks, gloves and eye goggles.

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/r0MgCEtpYRocZECSPcpDXA

 

I also have photos of dead bodies on the ground in the hospital for hours with no one taking care of. They are covered by white cloth so I can tell they are already dead.

While at the same time, I have a photo of the Provincial Governor on TV saying that they have plenty of supply and there is nothing to worry about!

 

Best of wishes to your relatives. My wife (who speaks some Chinese) also looked at some news and told me that it looks quite concerning and that I should look into 3M stock.

 

APT is also a bit interesting

[Spekulatius]

Take photos, spread the news. The world needs to know the humanitarian crisis that is developing. If this as bad as it sounds, it will need a coordinated effort to solve.

 

Plenty of photos here collected by abyli. Empty supply bins for masks, gloves and eye goggles.

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/r0MgCEtpYRocZECSPcpDXA

 

I also have photos of dead bodies on the ground in the hospital for hours with no one taking care of. They are covered by white cloth so I can tell they are already dead.

While at the same time, I have a photo of the Provincial Governor on TV saying that they have plenty of supply and there is nothing to worry about!

 

Best of wishes to your relatives. My wife (who speaks some Chinese) also looked at some news and told me that it looks quite concerning and that I should look into 3M stock.

 

APT is also a bit interesting

 

Well some traders have noticed. however, the business has been around forever  and has gone nowhere. most or the revenue is related to construction. Of course 3M is so large that there isn’t much real exposure either, but I notice that the brand recognition caused the stock to be relatively strong on an otherwise down day.

 

My own bet will probably be on the rebound of some travel related stocks like airlines or hotels. I am watching IHG for the latter, which is a well run asset light hotel international  franchise business.

[nodnub]

 

https://streamable.com/drpdz

 

 

 

[DocSnowball]

@muscleman sorry to hear about your family members. One thing to add would be that in the middle of an epidemic, all the bodies may not represent Coronavirus, they could be other diseases as well and the staff is just swamped.

 

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/01/doubts-rise-about-chinas-ability-contain-new-coronavirus

 

This is an interesting piece out today. A few things are emerging - if the link was from snake or an exotic animal and to a single human, then the virus has been transmitted from human to human quite effectively so far. The New England Journal of Medicine paper out also suggests that the virus is attaching to upper airway epithelial cells more effectively than prior ones causing outbreaks.

 

This estimate puts it that each infected person is spreading it to 2.6 more people (range 1.5 to 3.5). This is much more than SARS or MERS-CoV. The fatality rate is possibly lesser then, otherwise it would have come to attention sooner. We'll have to see - transmissibility and morbidity/mortality are the two most important factors. The cat is out of the bag at this point.

 

I also think this will play out over 3-6 months and the short term is likely to bring more bad news. The large scale actions being taken now in China are to be lauded. Interested, but not able to predict where this will go. Likely will spread but mortality rate might not be as high as we initially think.

 

Another thing that can happen with coronaviruses is that they can evolve during human to human transmission - so there may be a base case scenario where it is transmissible (already) but low mortality, and a less likely but possible worst case scenario where it is transmissible and high mortality.

 

[Nell-e]

@muscleman

 

Best wishes to you and your family.  I find the worst case stories much more believable than the official numbers.  I don't trust the Chinese government.

[abyli]

https://www.facebook.com/pttcitizen1985/videos/490429341619548/?v=490429341619548

 

[StubbleJumper]

First off, on public health I don't know shit from shinola.  But, I would take this opportunity to make a quick comparison of this outbreak to the Mexican H1N1 outbreak from 10 years ago.  In both cases, you have a novel virus with a relatively modest r-nought but an apparently frightening case fatality rate.  But, in the case of H1N1, that apparent case fatality rate declined significantly over time, probably due to to a better measurement of the denominator.  Not to be too crass, but we are pretty good at measuring the numerator, because those are the dead guys and it's usually pretty obvious.  But, how many people had the virus and got better without ever encountering the public health system?  We are not that great at measuring the denominator.  Sometimes that apparent case fatality rate isn't as bad as it first seems, and once the virus hits the developed world, things sometimes are not as bad as they seem.

 

It doesn't help anyone whose family is infected, but for those of us who are far from the outbreak, it's worth reflecting on past lessons.

 

 

SJ

[Spekulatius]

First off, on public health I don't know shit from shinola.  But, I would take this opportunity to make a quick comparison of this outbreak to the Mexican H1N1 outbreak from 10 years ago.  In both cases, you have a novel virus with a relatively modest r-nought but an apparently frightening case fatality rate.  But, in the case of H1N1, that apparent case fatality rate declined significantly over time, probably due to to a better measurement of the denominator.  Not to be too crass, but we are pretty good at measuring the numerator, because those are the dead guys and it's usually pretty obvious.  But, how many people had the virus and got better without ever encountering the public health system?  We are not that great at measuring the denominator.  Sometimes that apparent case fatality rate isn't as bad as it first seems, and once the virus hits the developed world, things sometimes are not as bad as they seem.

 

It doesn't help anyone whose family is infected, but for those of us who are far from the outbreak, it's worth reflecting on past lessons.

 

 

SJ

 

Past episodes seem to indicate that those epidemics don’t have much of an impact:

https://twitter.com/renmacllc/status/1220761911610019843?s=21

 

I do recall SARS had some impact on the HK stock market at that time, but it tended to fade away quickly. There was some impact on travel related business in the area that was quite real, but even those recovered within a year or so.

[StubbleJumper]

First off, on public health I don't know shit from shinola.  But, I would take this opportunity to make a quick comparison of this outbreak to the Mexican H1N1 outbreak from 10 years ago.  In both cases, you have a novel virus with a relatively modest r-nought but an apparently frightening case fatality rate.  But, in the case of H1N1, that apparent case fatality rate declined significantly over time, probably due to to a better measurement of the denominator.  Not to be too crass, but we are pretty good at measuring the numerator, because those are the dead guys and it's usually pretty obvious.  But, how many people had the virus and got better without ever encountering the public health system?  We are not that great at measuring the denominator.  Sometimes that apparent case fatality rate isn't as bad as it first seems, and once the virus hits the developed world, things sometimes are not as bad as they seem.

 

It doesn't help anyone whose family is infected, but for those of us who are far from the outbreak, it's worth reflecting on past lessons.

 

 

SJ

 

Past episodes seem to indicate that those epidemics don’t have much of an impact:

https://twitter.com/renmacllc/status/1220761911610019843?s=21

 

I do recall SARS had some impact on the HK stock market at that time, but it tended to fade away quickly. There was some impact on travel related business in the area that was quite real, but even those recovered within a year or so.

 

 

Well, the last numbers I saw were a bit alarming.  The last ones I saw were 56 deaths for 1,975 confirmed cases.  Frankly, if those are the correct numbers, it should scare the shit out of you because that would be a case fatality rate of 3%. But, should we believe those numbers?  I suspect that the 56 dead guys is probably a pretty decent number (maybe there are a few more who died from it, but were misattributed).  But should we believe the estimate of 1,975 cases of the virus?  Or is it really 10,000 cases of the virus, of which 8,000 never came to the attention of public health authorities because they stayed home and got better with no medical intervention?  There's a big difference between 56 dead guys out of 1,975 and 56 out of 10,000.  One is a pandemic that is scary as hell, and the other is not such a frightening event.

 

That's how H1N1 started out in Mexico.  The apparent case fatality rate was frighteningly high.  But, the Mexicans couldn't count what the people who never needed medical intervention.  So a nasty influenza that looked like a bad pandemic wasn't quite as bad as originally thought.  Let's hope that the denominator is wrong in this case too.

 

 

SJ

[muscleman]

First off, on public health I don't know shit from shinola.  But, I would take this opportunity to make a quick comparison of this outbreak to the Mexican H1N1 outbreak from 10 years ago.  In both cases, you have a novel virus with a relatively modest r-nought but an apparently frightening case fatality rate.  But, in the case of H1N1, that apparent case fatality rate declined significantly over time, probably due to to a better measurement of the denominator.  Not to be too crass, but we are pretty good at measuring the numerator, because those are the dead guys and it's usually pretty obvious.  But, how many people had the virus and got better without ever encountering the public health system?  We are not that great at measuring the denominator.  Sometimes that apparent case fatality rate isn't as bad as it first seems, and once the virus hits the developed world, things sometimes are not as bad as they seem.

 

It doesn't help anyone whose family is infected, but for those of us who are far from the outbreak, it's worth reflecting on past lessons.

 

 

SJ

 

Past episodes seem to indicate that those epidemics don’t have much of an impact:

https://twitter.com/renmacllc/status/1220761911610019843?s=21

 

I do recall SARS had some impact on the HK stock market at that time, but it tended to fade away quickly. There was some impact on travel related business in the area that was quite real, but even those recovered within a year or so.

 

 

Well, the last numbers I saw were a bit alarming.  The last ones I saw were 56 deaths for 1,975 confirmed cases.  Frankly, if those are the correct numbers, it should scare the shit out of you because that would be a case fatality rate of 3%. But, should we believe those numbers?  I suspect that the 56 dead guys is probably a pretty decent number (maybe there are a few more who died from it, but were misattributed).  But should we believe the estimate of 1,975 cases of the virus?  Or is it really 10,000 cases of the virus, of which 8,000 never came to the attention of public health authorities because they stayed home and got better with no medical intervention?  There's a big difference between 56 dead guys out of 1,975 and 56 out of 10,000.  One is a pandemic that is scary as hell, and the other is not such a frightening event.

 

That's how H1N1 started out in Mexico.  The apparent case fatality rate was frighteningly high.  But, the Mexicans couldn't count what the people who never needed medical intervention.  So a nasty influenza that looked like a bad pandemic wasn't quite as bad as originally thought.  Let's hope that the denominator is wrong in this case too.

 

 

SJ

 

Right now the government only acknowledge cases tested by the PCR kit. However there is a shortage of such kits and most patients (like my two relatives) keep running to various hospitals day after day before they finally get tested.

 

The 1900 infection number is just a joke. The actual number is likely in the 100k range.

Check out SARS stats for example. 5k infections and 300 death in China, vs 1100 infections and 200 death in Hong Kong. The death rate almost doubles in Hong Kong. Is Hong Kong medical system that much worse than China? Or is someone faking the numbers?

 

 

[sleepydragon]

There are rumors saying that the virus was accidentally released by a military research center in WuHan. It was initially intended to be used to stop the protests in HK.

It certainly did wonders in Paris. As soon as a woman from WuHan arrived in Paris, protests stopped and people rushed to buy musks.

Lol

 

 

[Pondside47]

I am from Wuhan and I have lots of friends and relatives there. I could tell you this: If you trust the government's stats of 500 infections and 17 deaths, it is no different from buying Chinese stocks merely based on their financial reports. All fake numbers.

The actual number is likely in the 100k range.

Right now even the doctors ran out of masks and gloves and are working unprotected. I don't know how much longer they can last before they are down.

I have 3 relatives infected. One staying at home, and two who spent 6 days going to each hospital to try to get hospitalized. They were all told one thing: We don't have resources for you. Go home. They finally got hospitalized yesterday. Think about it. That's after they are diagnosed positive. They are walking on the streets for 6 days while spreading the virus everywhere, with no hospital taking them in.

There are thousands and thousands of such patients.

There are also dead bodies everywhere in all hospitals. They are dead on the floor and for hours, no one comes to pick the bodies up. When they do get picked up, they are immediately sent to the funeral to be burned, without any diagnose of whether they got infected by this virus or else. Therefore the 17 death is just a joke.

 

Thanks for sharing that firsthand information. I hope everyone in your family ends up alright. What makes you think that’s the number has already hit 100k?

 

How wish his family member recover fully from the infection, but technically a lot of what muscleman said is hearsay not firsthand experience. My father's side family is from Wuhan as well and I hear from them quite the opposite. Yes some people are dying and yes we are short on medical supply due to the holidays. But things are getting better since the first month was virus attacking human unnoticed and now it's got the attention of us. Even if you multiply the official number by 10x and put it in the context of the size of population, it feels more hysteria than real catastrophe to me. How many people have died from the flu this season in the US?

 

None of my relatives have been infected and according to them the hysteria going around is mostly due to people panicking to rumors on social media. To you guys, what I just said goes into the hearsay category as well, other than the fact that none of my family has been infected. This whole situation is quite a hotbed for conspiracies.

 

Could the Wuhan government have responded better to this situation? The answer is absolutely yes, but the same answer goes for every crisis in every country. There is an article on WSJ yesterday about how 40 people died in Toronto during SARS while 0-1 died in Vancouver, and explained the difference in how hospital handled the infected patient in ER contributed the difference in the same country.  Quite an interesting read.

[Spekulatius]

A clue season Worldwide infects roughly 41M people with 57k death (roughly ), so a 1/730mortality. Just to put things into perspective. The news is certainly scary, but it is well possible that the episode is not much different than a severe flu outbreak.

SARS was scary because mortality was high. I don’t think we have reliable numbers from the Soronavirus yet.

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2019/04/us-flu-still-elevated-dropping-deaths-high-57000

[lnofeisone]

I found this to be very informative. The sheer magnitude of the update between Jan 17th and 22nd is staggering. Really explains China's drastic measures.

 

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/?fbclid=IwAR1YkF6-jQQqI8IYkAWIqhjAn1M5gNngTV4SNgH030OkKlE9y3leTB3uveQ

 

*Edited for date correction.

[gary17]

 

this is a reporter doing reporting in wuhan on youtube.  he’s a critic of the communist party so he’s been using proxy software to be posting on youtube in china. 

you can see from earlier videos he posted of hospital  scenes

 

it’s in mandarin but there’s plenty of footage that’s pretty self-explanatory

 

 

he is reporting that talking to a nurse yesterday, the crowding condition at the hospital appears to have died down somewhat, which i hope is a good sign