SafetyinNumbers Posted July 8 Posted July 8 23 minutes ago, Longnose said: Helpful, Thanks for the direction. I have built a 6% position in Strathacona Resources (SCR.TO) ahead of their expected capital return policy to be provided with Q2 results on August 14. The company is guiding to C$1b in free cash flow or ~C$4.50/share to be returned to shareholders at $80 WTI. They say they will have a base dividend that is sustainable if prices dip. My bet is that will be using $60 WTI which should support more than a 5% yield. They also have discussed variable dividends, SIB or NCIB. I’m a big fan of the management team. They certainly have skin in the game with Waterous fund owning 91% and have no dilutive securities (options etc..). They have a history of growing accretively through acquisition but want to use their stock now that they are public but the stock is too cheap. I think that makes them very motivated to close the NAV discount (~30-40%) as quickly as possible.
SharperDingaan Posted July 8 Posted July 8 (edited) 1 hour ago, SafetyinNumbers said: They have a history of growing accretively through acquisition but want to use their stock now that they are public but the stock is too cheap. Just keep in mind that it's only Q2; many a company will announce direction but doesn't actually declare until January. SCR also have incentive to buy back some of their own stock (using dividend funds) and do tuck-in acquisitions paid for with stock and cash from the drilling budget. Drilling companies are all forecasting 'no change in activity' for the rest of the year, and the industry has been paying down debt for quite some time. Most would expect that post TMP expansion, newly found cash will be aggressively going into M&A consolidation. SD Edited July 8 by SharperDingaan
TwoCitiesCapital Posted July 24 Posted July 24 (edited) On 12/23/2022 at 11:28 PM, TwoCitiesCapital said: I don't know if $80 will be the floor. I feel a bit more comfortable saying probably not below $60, but always tough to say on any given day since prices are set at the margin which goes bonkers in recessions. I'm far more comfortable saying any drop in price will quickly recover, the shortage of energy has not and will not be solved quickly, and that oil producers will do just fine over the intermediate term regardless of recession forecasts. In the meantime, if $80 is the new bottom, oil stocks will kill it again in 2023. Oil prices have proven resilient - $75 has largely been the bottom-ish of the last 2-year range for WTI- which is above the highs of the 2014-2020 range. Share prices on the other hand? Largely have stagnated over the last ~18 months despite consolidation, deleveraging, and shareholder friendly policies. I suppose that spring is re-coiling... Edited July 24 by TwoCitiesCapital
SharperDingaan Posted July 26 Posted July 26 It's summer, silly season, and a lot easier to just follow the haters versus think for yourself. Notable is that the drillers Q2 report outlooks are suddenly more optimistic, and that the WCP Q2 vs Q1 netbacks are $5+ higher; with only 1/2 of 1 one month reflecting the lower differentials resulting from new TCP pipe. Most would expect the Q3 netback to be similar or better, and WCP to be representative. Help yourself, while everyone is enjoying the Olympics. Then join them at the patio once you're done SD
UK Posted August 22 Posted August 22 https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/passed-peak-chinas-crude-oil-imports-trend-down-russell-2024-08-22/
Gamecock-YT Posted August 22 Posted August 22 (edited) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-08-01/exxon-almost-walked-away-from-1-trillion-guyana-oil-discovery Exxon Almost Walked Away From Its $1 Trillion Oil Discovery A few geoscientists pushed a reluctant energy giant to take a chance on Guyana. Edited August 22 by Gamecock-YT
Dalal.Holdings Posted September 6 Posted September 6 (edited) I don't think anyone from the late 1970s to 2010 could ever envision the U.S. rapidly surpassing its highest ever oil production achieved in early 1970s in a span of less than 10 years. But here we are with Shale. What other technologies/innovations will come along in the future to unlock even more oil that was once thought inaccessible? These things put a ceiling on oil prices. Edited September 6 by Dalal.Holdings
fareastwarriors Posted September 20 Posted September 20 Constellation Energy to restart Three Mile Island nuclear plant, sell the power to Microsoft for AI
toughcall Posted September 20 Posted September 20 Nuclear is really on the rise. I just cant find a way to get a broad exposure to this trend. Are there any good companies in the sector?
gfp Posted September 20 Posted September 20 1 minute ago, toughcall said: Nuclear is really on the rise. I just cant find a way to get a broad exposure to this trend. Are there any good companies in the sector? You could invest in the fuel itself through a physical uranium vehicle like Sprott's U.U in Canada or Yellow Cake. (sometimes the Sprott ticker is listed as U.UT). There is also an ETF with the symbol URA that owns some Uranium related things.
Castanza Posted September 20 Posted September 20 (edited) 41 minutes ago, toughcall said: Nuclear is really on the rise. I just cant find a way to get a broad exposure to this trend. Are there any good companies in the sector? $SNCAF experienced with nuclear buildout. Edited September 20 by Castanza
JRM Posted September 20 Posted September 20 I can't help but see the nonsense in the response to this headline. There were two units built at TMI, and the one which did not have the incident has been operating non-stop since 1979. MAJOR upgrades are required in TMI unit 1 to bring it up to regulatory standards. All are doable, but it won't be quick or cheap. I've seen headlines saying this is the first "shuttered" nuclear power plant to be brought back online in the US. Also false. The stock pops in Constellation Energy and Vistra seem ridiculous.
Spekulatius Posted September 20 Posted September 20 I am old enough to have fond memories of 3 Mile Island waiting for the hydrogen to blow up the containment vessel.
villainx Posted September 21 Posted September 21 5 hours ago, JRM said: All are doable, but it won't be quick or cheap. Most of the articles indicate that it won't be quick or cheap. Or are you thinking it'll take more and or longer (beyond 2028 and however billion+ for capex)?
thowed Posted September 21 Posted September 21 I think it's necessary to do some proper research before investing in Uranium - there are various nuances not immediately apparent (as with most investments...). e.g. Two prices: Spot Market and Term Market. e.g. 'Russian' price vs 'US' price. (I may be wrong, but I think that Sprott Uranium is US, and Yellow Cake is Russian/Kazakh.) I'm just a tourist, so this may all be wrong, but just a heads up.
sholland Posted September 21 Posted September 21 15 hours ago, JRM said: The stock pops in Constellation Energy and Vistra seem ridiculous. My thought also.
fareastwarriors Posted September 21 Posted September 21 Nuclear fuel prices surge as west rues shortage of conversion facilities
JRM Posted September 22 Posted September 22 On 9/20/2024 at 10:49 PM, villainx said: Most of the articles indicate that it won't be quick or cheap. Or are you thinking it'll take more and or longer (beyond 2028 and however billion+ for capex)? I think Watts Barr unit 2 is a close analog. Construction resumed in 2007 and completed in 2015 with a total cost over $6B (estimated to cost $2.5B). This was also almost two decades ago, so expect costs to be higher now. Watts Barr was the same overall design and vintage to TMI. I'm guessing it would take at least as long and who knows how much it would cost to restart TMI compared to WB2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Watts_Bar_Nuclear_Plant
Spekulatius Posted September 22 Posted September 22 Pretty good summary how Russia tries to reroute trade flows. Easier for some goods than for others: https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/putin-russia-trade-routes-charts-maps-921aa78b?mod=finance_lead_pos3
fareastwarriors Posted September 26 Posted September 26 Saudi Arabia ready to abandon $100 crude target to take back market share
Spekulatius Posted September 26 Posted September 26 30 minutes ago, fareastwarriors said: Saudi Arabia ready to abandon $100 crude target to take back market share
Sweet Posted September 26 Posted September 26 (edited) 10 hours ago, fareastwarriors said: Saudi Arabia ready to abandon $100 crude target to take back market share Lol, always the way. Glad I got out of this POS sector two years ago. It would take a covid like crash to make me touch it again. Look at Oxy, even Buffett can’t get this space right. Not only are you looking at the long-term secular decline in oil use but many companies are not run in the interest of the shareholders. And the oil investors are addicted to gloom and doom and wishing for world war three or some shit to pump oil up so they can make bank. Or they blame politicians for keeping oil low - no shit they want low oil price. It’s a wild sector. One I do not miss. But dam I made a lot of money in it. Edited September 26 by Sweet
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