Great podcast episode recommendation thread

[hasilp89]

42 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

Agree. Here it is.

 

 

Two points that I thought some depth of discussion on was warranted (but the insufferable hosts just decided to chime in and infuse their thoughts) - would be curious on folks thoughts.

 

1. SWF - Interesting analogy to Australia's superannuation fund. But isn't the issue that the US runs a budget and trade deficit - we don't have extra cash for a SWF - every nation that has one has a budget/trade surplus. Is it realistic that tariffs can fund it permanently?

 

2. That the Gvt should have borrowed more longer dated debt is constantly parroted around. I never see much push back on this, but there have to be reasons why this did not happen. With inflation around the corner would there have been real buyers? If there was a lot of issuance wouldn't it be massively underwater now - impacting pensions plans and other asset sensitive investors? The hikes we did have, on the assets banks did hold caused some failures - if there were a bunch of 10- year treasury's at 1% wouldn't there be some carnage?

 

 

 

[flesh]

Love the gold card. No brainer. 
 

 

[gfp]

2 hours ago, flesh said:

Love the gold card. No brainer. 
 

 

Just finished watching this - really a must watch. More important than the Tsec interview. Thanks for the link 

[cubsfan]

3 hours ago, flesh said:

Love the gold card. No brainer. 
 

 

 

Yup, best interview I've seen. You're not dealing with a politician, but a businessman.

Keep 'em coming @flesh

[beerbaron]

10 hours ago, hasilp89 said:

2. That the Gvt should have borrowed more longer dated debt is constantly parroted around. I never see much push back on this, but there have to be reasons why this did not happen. With inflation around the corner would there have been real buyers? If there was a lot of issuance wouldn't it be massively underwater now - impacting pensions plans and other asset sensitive investors? The hikes we did have, on the assets banks did hold caused some failures - if there were a bunch of 10- year treasury's at 1% wouldn't there be some carnage?

 

There was a whole interview from a trader working for the treasury on Odd Lots Podcast. The guy spent a good amount of time explaining that every that every new politician that comes in tries to push the idea but in the end, there is no demand for the product. No liquidity, and no interest from the market. I always find it fascinating when you listen from people from the inside and they have a rock solid explanation. Go figure, now all government are incompetent...

 

 

[Xerxes]

Great interview with Howard. Sounds like a great guy. Still have 20 min ago. 

 

That said, I wasn’t too amused by his Dark Age comment and how people in the world forgetting to read for couple hundred the years. 
 

I seem to remember from high school that Dark Ages was an European phenomenon. And there was a world outside then “puny” Europe.   

[flesh]

On Ukraine, Taiwan, ai, trump admin good and bad so far. I think understanding this might make the other noises the current admin is making make at least more sense to those who don’t see the sense. 
 

 

[hasilp89]

10 hours ago, beerbaron said:

 

Thanks, that’s along the line I was thinking, will have to look it up.

[FCharlie]

 

[Ulti]

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/we-study-billionaires-the-investors-podcast-network/id928933489?i=1000700418387
 

Kuppy interview… always interesting 

[ratiman]

Somebody should quiz Kuppy on what the "current account" is and see whether he can explain it.

[ratiman]

It's hard to find good macro commentary that isn't bears repeating the same brain-dead bear arguments for the millionth time but Russell Clark is a bear and also a good macro commentator. This 7 minute commentary on food inflation is good. He also has some other short macro commentary on his site.

 

https://www.russell-clark.com/p/food-inflation-revisited-e82

Edited March 29, 2025 by ratiman

[Stuart D]

Enjoyed the Douglas Murray Lex interview.

 

Also, Jeremy Raper’s Japan segment on Value hive was excellent.

Edited March 31, 2025 by Stuart D

[villainx]

This is the recent Business Brew pod, with Jingshu Zhang.  I only started at 36 minute mark because I was short on time and at least wanted to get the Tencent discussion in first, but from 36 minute mark to the end was interesting.  It talked a bit about big tech, Tencent, SEO, delisting fears, and so forth.  I guess for me, it seemed to be different or new perspective.

 

https://overcast.fm/+AA4pguZn3lQ

[Spekulatius]

This is a good one, clearly discussing, China’s strengths:

 

Edited April 21, 2025 by Spekulatius

[Ulti]

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/odd-lots/id1056200096?i=1000704277854
 

excellent interview with Martin Wolf of the FT

[Spooky]

46 minutes ago, Ulti said:

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/odd-lots/id1056200096?i=1000704277854
 

excellent interview with Martin Wolf of the FT

 

+1. Martin is the man.

[Dalal.Holdings]

2 hours ago, Ulti said:

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/odd-lots/id1056200096?i=1000704277854
 

excellent interview with Martin Wolf of the FT

 

Listened to this. It's amazing that European economic commentators like this are able to opine so freely about America's happenings, but when asked why Britain's (and Europe's) productivity growth has flatlined and they've hit economic stagnation for over a decade, the only answer is "we don't really know". 

 

Yeah, I'm not asking a European economic commentator or member of the elite for an analysis or prescription on what the U.S. should do given what they've done to their own continent. Or at least take it with a huge grain of salt.

 

Edited April 21, 2025 by Dalal.Holdings

[Spooky]

17 minutes ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

 

Listened to this. It's amazing that European economic commentators like this are able to opine so freely about America's happenings, but when asked why Britain's (and Europe's) productivity growth has flatlined and they've hit economic stagnation for over a decade, the only answer is "we don't really know". 

 

Yeah, I'm not asking a European economic commentator or member of the elite for an analysis or prescription on what the U.S. should do given what they've done to their own continent. Or at least take it with a huge grain of salt.

 

 

So your argument is that the US has been the best at increasing productivity and because of this others shouldn't criticize it when it shoots itself in the foot and puts its economic dominance at risk?

Edited April 21, 2025 by Spooky

[Ulti]

32 minutes ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

Listened to this. It's amazing that European economic commentators like this are able to opine so freely about America's happenings, but when asked why Britain's (and Europe's) productivity growth has flatlined and they've hit economic stagnation for over a decade, the only answer is "we don't really know

From my reading, Martin touched on, lack of technology, advancement innovation, regulations, and said that eastern Asia, with the exception of Japan recently was undergoing something similar. It seems he was able to talk about the US due to it reserve status massive depth spending Etc. I’m sure he could’ve opined much more on British and European economic faults, but the vast majority of the interview was purposely US centric.

 Perhaps this will help

https://www.ft.com/content/3e504036-e9ee-4757-baf9-47fdccbf340c

Transcript: Martin Wolf on the UK economy: ‘Why I’m worried’

 

hopefully not behind a wall

[Dalal.Holdings]

38 minutes ago, Spooky said:

 

So your argument is that the US has been the best at increasing productivity and because of this others shouldn't criticize it when it shoots itself in the foot and puts its economic dominance at risk?

 

My argument is that those who bear responsibility for why the UK & Europe have stagnated for over a decade and a half should only be listened to with a huge grain of salt. 

 

Many of these commentators cheered on and encouraged a lot of the policies/rules that have led Europe to where it is today. The Davos crowd especially.

 

And now, when the continent needs a way out of its mess, what solutions do they propose? Have they been vocal about how welfare (especially disability payments to a quarter of working age people in the UK) needs massive reform? Have they pushed back against radical environmentalist agenda that destroyed the energy security of the continent? Have they pushed back against crazed regulations from the EU/etc ? Have they held China to account for brazen IP theft, massive subsidies of their industries, and destruction of the European auto sector ? Large migrant populations that don't really contribute but drain resources? What about pitiful funding of defense that leads them to the crisis they find themselves in today ?

 

A lot of these economists/commentators just fall back on their Econ 101 "free trade is good" mindset without addressing these details that have destroyed productivity and the general geopolitical standing of the UK/Europe.

 

And yeah, no kidding that European tech industry is garbage. But they never realize that all the above problems -- crazy regulatory apparatus, welfare, lack of military investment, crazy immigration policies, IP theft from China, energy security, educational institutions that teach b.s. fields -- have all contributed to your tech industry's woes.

 

Edited April 21, 2025 by Dalal.Holdings

[Spooky]

Would be better to listen to all voices and determine if what they are saying makes sense.

[Dalal.Holdings]

https://www.economist.com/britain/2025/03/13/britains-worklessness-disaster

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/benefits-bill-surges-25pc-working-age-britons-disabled/

 

Quote

Depression, bad nerves or anxiety diagnoses have also surged from 826,000 to 1.7 million in the same timeframe.

 

Conditions are classed as a disability if they limit someone’s capability to carry out day-to-day activities, or worse so.

 

Much easier to collect disability checks in the mail for "anxiety" than become a computer programmer. British economists/politicians of course don't understand how basic incentives work if they put such a system in place and then go "Gee, I wonder why UK productivity isn't doing well"

 

Instead of commentating on U.S. politics day in and day out, perhaps they should address glaring deficiencies in their own land.

 

Edited April 21, 2025 by Dalal.Holdings

[Dinar]

I am sorry, but it is hard to take Mr Wolf seriously when he says that the reason US infrastructure is in bad shape vs China is because China invests in factories and US in tax cuts.  

 

First of all, if you keep hiking taxes, you will end up like the USSR, where there was no incentive to work.  With marginal tax rates approaching 55-60% in NYC/NJ/CA, how much more can you hike taxes before people just stop working?

 

Second of all, when US spends 5x more per mile on building NYC subway than France and London (see the NYT article all but accusing the MTA of corruption), and the local officials saying this is because NY is an old city, you know it is not the lack of money, but mismanagement.  My kids are in public school in NYC.  The city spends $40K per each kid in public school, yet only $10K reaches the school, the rest goes where?  Meanwhile Catholic private schools charge $6-10K per kid.  

 

Yes, US has very big problems.  It is not because we don't collect enough taxes, it is because we spend inefficiently and the welfare state is too big (more than 30% of NY State is on Medicaid, and it is not driven by 65 and over crowd.)

 

 

[Dalal.Holdings]

55 minutes ago, Dinar said:

I am sorry, but it is hard to take Mr Wolf seriously when he says that the reason US infrastructure is in bad shape vs China is because China invests in factories and US in tax cuts.  

 

First of all, if you keep hiking taxes, you will end up like the USSR, where there was no incentive to work.  With marginal tax rates approaching 55-60% in NYC/NJ/CA, how much more can you hike taxes before people just stop working?

 

Second of all, when US spends 5x more per mile on building NYC subway than France and London (see the NYT article all but accusing the MTA of corruption), and the local officials saying this is because NY is an old city, you know it is not the lack of money, but mismanagement.  My kids are in public school in NYC.  The city spends $40K per each kid in public school, yet only $10K reaches the school, the rest goes where?  Meanwhile Catholic private schools charge $6-10K per kid.  

 

Yes, US has very big problems.  It is not because we don't collect enough taxes, it is because we spend inefficiently and the welfare state is too big (more than 30% of NY State is on Medicaid, and it is not driven by 65 and over crowd.)

 

 

 

Yep: and he also said that "the U.S. needs to reduce domestic consumption" as percent of GDP to invest in infrastructure -- "good luck with that".

 

Well, you know a good way to disincentivize consumption?

 

Tariffs on cheap Chinese imports. Currency devaluation too. 

 

As I noted in the Kuppy thread, the U.S. is trying to decrease consumption as % of GDP which is extraordinarily high in the U.S. In the podcast, Wolf briefly acknowledges it as a problem, but waives off solving it as an impossibility...