Fairfax India new issue

[nwoodman]

8 hours ago, ICUMD said:

 Not to mention their shot at a control position in IDBI within the year.

 

Rumours are circulating that the decision on the final bidders  is getting close.  Big jump in IDBI’s share price yesterday.

 

“New Delhi: Authorities are at an "advanced stage" of wrapping up the process to identify "fit and proper" buyers for a majority stake in IDBI Bank and the strategic sale of the state-run lender is expected to be concluded this fiscal, Tuhin Kanta Pandey, secretary, Department of Investment and Public Asset Management (DIPAM), said on Tuesday.”

 

https://m.economictimes.com/industry/banking/finance/banking/in-final-stage-of-identifying-idbi-bidders-tuhin-kanta-pandey/amp_articleshow/111996803.cms

[Junior R]

Bengaluru airport records over 1 crore flyers in first quarter of this year's fiscal

 

Airports across India have seen 99.54 million passengers thereby recording a cumulative 7.1% growth this quarter over the corresponding period in 2023-2024.

Edited July 26, 2024 by Junior R

[dartmonkey]

I'm a novice India investor, I still have to look up what a crore is (it's 10 million; 100 thousand is a lakh, 100 lakhs is a crore.) It's not clear to me why they talk about Kempegowda International Airport (KIA) getting to a crore and all Indian airports getting to 99.54 millions, which they could also have called 9.954 crore, but since 1 lakh is 10 million, it looks like Bengalaru accounts for over 10% of all Indian air traffic now.

 

7.1% growth year over year for all Indian traffic, and 7.2% growth at Bengalaru, so they are in line with national growth rates, which is good news I suppose. They also note that 89.3 lakh of the 100 lakh passengers were domestic, up 5.5%, and 13.4 lakh were the more profitable foreign travellers. They say that the percentage increase for foreign travellers at KIA was up by 20.3%, but unless I'm making a stupid mistake, that doesn't compute with their overall traffic increase of 7.2% ; I get foreign traffic up 38.9%, which would be even better news. Both numbers would be good, I guess we will see which one is right when KIA puts out a press release about their Q2 numbers. 

[Hoodlum]

It look like IDBI decision is moving along with Fairfax India being the leading contender.  

 

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/banks/fairfax-likely-frontrunner-for-idbi-bank-stake-acquisition-12783559.html#google_vignette

 

Quote

After months of delay, the divestment of IDBI Bank may advance to the next stage, with highly placed sources indicating that the Reserve Bank of India has granted the necessary approval.

 

The sources indicated that Fairfax India Holdings, one of the three bidders for IDBI Bank, has likely passed RBI’s rigorous ‘fit and proper’ test, advancing to the next stage. The fate of the other two bidders, cited in media reports, is unclear. Fairfax is led by Indian-born Canadian billionaire Prem Watsa.

 

According to the media reports, Fairfax India Holdings, NBD Emirates and Kotak Mahindra Bank are said to have shown interest in buying a majority stake in IDBI Bank. Some of the people cited above said Kotak Bank is no longer in the race, but this could not be independently confirmed.

 

[ICUMD]

13 hours ago, Hoodlum said:

It look like IDBI decision is moving along with Fairfax India being the leading contender.  

 

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/banks/fairfax-likely-frontrunner-for-idbi-bank-stake-acquisition-12783559.html#google_vignette

 

 

A successful bid for IDBI should hopefully act as a catalyst for positive share price re-evaluation.  Will be interesting to see how they structure this large acquisition.

[Madpawn]

With FIH selling at 35% discount to BV, I’m surprised to not see more excitement on this forum. Am I being over optimistic?

[hardcorevalue]

The better part of a decade with a discount will do that to you

[TwoCitiesCapital]

Yup. I'm excited. I add every once in awhile. 

 

But it first traded at this price in 2017....

 

 

Book value keeps growing, they keep repurchasing, and I'm satisfied - but not going all in on the discount to NAV that may, or may not, close in the next 5 years. 

[Junior R]

On 7/31/2024 at 9:05 AM, Hoodlum said:

It look like IDBI decision is moving along with Fairfax India being the leading contender.  

 

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/banks/fairfax-likely-frontrunner-for-idbi-bank-stake-acquisition-12783559.html#google_vignette

 

 

How would Fairfax India even fund this purchase? 

[SafetyinNumbers]

8 hours ago, Junior R said:

How would Fairfax India even fund this purchase? 

Partners like FFH and other large asset managers like pensions and Blackrock types. Hopefully while earning a fee for the privilege.

[ICUMD]

23 hours ago, Junior R said:

How would Fairfax India even fund this purchase? 

Anchorage. 

 

What the may opt to do is use Anchorage as the vehicle to purchase IDBI.  If I understand correctly, BIAL is already under Anchorage and a portion of Anchorage has been sold to Omers.  

 

They could procure additional private capital through Anchorage to purchase IDBI. After which, they would seek a public listing on the Indian exchange.

 

This would explain the delay in getting the Anchorage publicly listed.  They are busy elephant hunting.

 

[Xerxes]

32 minutes ago, ICUMD said:

Anchorage. 

 

What the may opt to do is use Anchorage as the vehicle to purchase IDBI.  If I understand correctly, BIAL is already under Anchorage and a portion of Anchorage has been sold to Omers.  

 

They could procure additional private capital through Anchorage to purchase IDBI. After which, they would seek a public listing on the Indian exchange.

 

This would explain the delay in getting the Anchorage publicly listed.  They are busy elephant hunting.

 

I may remember wrong, but I think Anchorage was said to be for “industrial” assets. 
 

not sure IDBI would go there. 

[Haryana]

7 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

I may remember wrong, but I think Anchorage was said to be for “industrial” assets. 
 

not sure IDBI would go there. 

Not sure either but in terms of “industrial”  IDBI is acronym for  Industrial Development Bank of India. 

[gfp]

Anchorage is for infrastructure assets like airports and train stations and the like.  IDBI will be merged with CSB bank (with IDBI being the surviving brand) if Fairfax is the winning bidder. 

 

Plenty of creative structures available to fund the deal with partners.  Looking forward to hearing the details!

[Haryana]

25 minutes ago, gfp said:

Anchorage is for infrastructure assets like airports and train stations and the like.  IDBI will be merged with CSB bank (with IDBI being the surviving brand) if Fairfax is the winning bidder. 

 

Plenty of creative structures available to fund the deal with partners.  Looking forward to hearing the details!

 

Right, this is actually their advantage over the rival bid by Kotak Mahindra. They can easily let go of CSB name but Kotak cannot because they are  already a major national iconic brand. 

 

[nwoodman]

11 minutes ago, Haryana said:

 

Right, this is actually their advantage over the rival bid by Kotak Mahindra. They can easily let go of CSB name but Kotak cannot because they are  already a major national iconic brand. 

 

Good point, naming continuity seems to be a high priority, along with “everyone keeps their jobs” for three years.  From my reading I think Kotak is going to walk.  
 

Do we know anything about NBD Emirates? I didn’t know they were in the running until last week.

[MMM20]

On 8/6/2024 at 12:27 PM, Madpawn said:

With FIH selling at 35% discount to BV, I’m surprised to not see more excitement on this forum. Am I being over optimistic?

 

I just added for the first time since Sept 2020. I'm not a trader and I'd let it sit there for ~4 years = ~17%+ CAGR and seemingly cheaper nowadays. I still own ~10x as much OG FFH but I love the setup in this one too now.

 

 

Edited August 9, 2024 by MMM20

[Thrifty3000]

On 7/2/2024 at 10:41 AM, dartmonkey said:

The recovery of IIFL Finance continues.

 

To recap, they got into some regulatory trouble in March as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) asked IIFL FInance to stop sanctioning or disbursing gold loans after raising concerns about the company's gold loan portfolio. The share price dropped from about 600 to close to 300, and IIFL issued shares (at 300 INR) and debt, FIH participating in both. FIH now owns 15.1% of the firm, and with shares at 517.60 at the June 30 close, well up from 340.10 at the end of Q1 and 2/3 of the way back to the 600 region.

 

For FIH, the impact on Q2 results should be significant, as this represents a $137m increase in this mark-to-market stake, reversing most of the $178m Q1 loss, for a gain of almost exactly $1 per FIH share.

 

Most of FIH's book value is in the Bangalore Airport, and there are other private investments like Sanmar Chemical, 7 Islands Shipping and Maxop Engineering. But looking at the five big public investments, worth about a third of FIH's total book value, they seem to have all gone in the right direction. Ignoring USD:INR (which stayed at exactly 83.7), FIH's 5 biggest public investments were up 30% in total:

 

 

 

Q2 report was August 3rd last year, so I guess we'll know in about 4 weeks, but it looks like results should be dramatically better than Q1.

 

 

 

IIFL getting caught up in another scandal. This time it involves the chairperson of SEBI. Too much corruption…

 

https://hindenburgresearch.com/sebi-chairperson/

[Haryana]

32 minutes ago, Thrifty3000 said:

IIFL getting caught up in another scandal. This time it involves the chairperson of SEBI. Too much corruption…

 

https://hindenburgresearch.com/sebi-chairperson/

 

This appears limited to IIFL Wealth entity which is much smaller and was separated out of the main IIFL Finance.

 

[Gamma78]

had written soemthing but then realised the article was a decade old. 

Edited August 11, 2024 by Gamma78

[glider3834]

On 8/11/2024 at 5:12 AM, Thrifty3000 said:

IIFL getting caught up in another scandal. This time it involves the chairperson of SEBI. Too much corruption…

 

https://hindenburgresearch.com/sebi-chairperson/

https://www.business-standard.com/companies/news/no-investments-in-adani-firms-sebi-chair-not-involved-in-fund-s-ops-iifl-124081100293_1.html

[SafetyinNumbers]

19 minutes ago, glider3834 said:

https://www.business-standard.com/companies/news/no-investments-in-adani-firms-sebi-chair-not-involved-in-fund-s-ops-iifl-124081100293_1.html

Also FFH fully monetized the position in 360 Wealth in May 2023. 

[Thrifty3000]

2 hours ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

Also FFH fully monetized the position in 360 Wealth in May 2023. 

[Haryana]

IIFL Finance was down a little on Monday after the Hindenburg short report but Fairfax India was up.

 

Not going much lower than 14 on scary news. 

 

Looks like a MOAB.

 

Not the American kind of MOAB - Mother Of All Bombs. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/what-is-the-mother-of-all-bombs-that-the-u-s-just-dropped-on-afghanistan/

 

Fairfax India kind of MOAB - Mother Of All Bottoms.

 

[gfp]

I hadn't checked in on IIFL Securities in a little while - was surprised to see the chart