Gregmal

Agree on phone carriers. I finally had to ditch my iPhone 5. Sprint and TMUS merged and as of Jan 2022 are shutting down old networks which means my beloved iPhone 5 won't work anymore. I absolutely detest the big retard sized phones, so by default had only one option, which was the iPhone 12 mini. Tough pill to swallow going from a phone I loved to one I still dont like and paying $750 vs $80 for it. But what am I gonna do? Well, anyway, the new phone has all these dumb features that I dont want or need, but one of them is unsolicitedly springing old pictures on me...attached below, inflation reminders indeed. Last March 22(2020) I got an 8.5 lb lobster. Dont know if I was celebrating the fact that I'd be more than tripling my net worth over the next 12 months or simply eating well in anticipation of the end of civilization as we knew it....but anyhow, now? That 8.5 pound monster which cost $64 in March 2020 is now $193, ON SALE! That said, you can still navigate prices at grocery stores but it is definitely more expensive and I agree with Castanza, its not like "oh shit, 4% increase!"...its generally 20-30% and in some cases much more. A 12 pack of Coke is now $7.99...WTF? Also attached was the menu at the Tex-Mex place I was eating at while reading the posts about restaurant price increases....everyone knows they can bump prices, whether its by necessity or not, its happening. If people are willing to pay it, I doubt they come back down for a while.

If one didnt rely on The NY Times or Wapo, Occam's razor would have lead to the most logical conclusion.... Get me a world map. Put a pin on where these type of virus research institutes are located Get a second world map. Put a pin where the first virus cases were reported. Draw a circle around the 100 mile radius. Overlap them now. Conclusion? Meanwhile some actually thought it came from a dirty food festival? If that were the case we'd have new pandemics every 6 months. Especially when NYC does their food truck festivals...Sometimes common sense is not the hard part, its finding the right lens to look through. Many people suffered from politically inspired bias.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9629563/Chinese-scientists-created-COVID-19-lab-tried-cover-tracks-new-study-claims.html Hopefully more and more continues to bleed out. Remember all the whistleblowers in China in Jan/Feb who just went away? Remember the Chinese scientist chick who came over here around this time last year saying it was a coverup and the media scrubbed her and she just went away? Or the reports of an internal memo going around the Wuhan Institute mandating a complete security and procedural overhaul last February? Almost the same as new security features at a bank after a robbery? But when the government and media collude together to hide things from people, one has to accept that the truth is, very likely we will never get the full or true story. But all signs point to a massive government coverup here. Both with respect to China, and also most likely the US being complicit; after all they happened to be funding this lab. The behavior in the beginning was very telling. The US politicians held an emergency meeting a couple weeks into January, a mere 2 weeks after the first cases were reported in China? The lockdowns in China after like 3 weeks? We'd previously seen random outbreaks like Ebola and some others and never was the response like this one. Tell tale behavior of people who know more than they're letting on. Meanwhile, the average fool goes to The NY Times and says "thats the truth, they're credible!"...and it goes away just like the powers that be want. A reminder to all to always think for yourselves. There's a saying when investing that the more certainty/data one needs to invest, the higher the price they pay and the lower the subsequent returns. Great investors connect a few facts with a bunch of speculation and circumstantial data and arrive in the correct place. Obviously not everyone has this skill, but self awareness makes it somewhat easier. You had everything you needed here 3-4 months into this "pandemic".

Everyone and everything is telling you there is inflation. After years of the Fed trying to create it, its been done. It may be temporary, it may not be..I dont know. But the really simple question is, if you can make investments today that do well, in some cases REALLY WELL, with or without inflation, why wouldnt you? Perhaps I'm being naive, but this seems like an easy situation to navigate.

Eh 2-3 year "winters" to accumulate while out of favor to sell at 5-10x higher prices when its in favor seem like a reasonable IRR...not that this is what I am forecasting, but if you remain bullish on this thats probably what you want to see.

Eh I posted this in a private chat on the subject so its somewhat edited to remove detail but basically... A good friend of mine grew up with (well known allocator)...(allocators name) has even said on numerous occasions the key to building (his firm) and ultimately being a successful feeder/allocator is basically just kissing ass. Hob knobbing. Throwing events that popular people go to. I dont think performance is anywhere near the top of the list for many of these guys. They basically just need to avoid someone who blows up in a big way but is otherwise boring and vanilla and won't make them look bad. Most dont seem to understand the absurdity of the system, particularly someone like Wyatt who seems focused on the only thing that should matter which is performance. Adam is probably better off just doing his own thing and not kissing the ring. He obviously doesnt need these guys, let alone putting up with their arrogant, entitled, I'll scratch your back if you scratch mine nonsense that comes with taking their money. It's awesome seeing someone like him, who lacks the typical establishment "polish" kicking ass and taking names.

Didnt see his rant, what was it? I do an incredibly poor job of following Twitter, mainly because I dont have an account nor a desire to get one. This guy has quietly been money for a while though. Glad he's getting his day(assuming he wants it).

Bought some CASH for a quick swing trade. Looks primed for a breakout. Also bought some NKLA puts.

I mean for one, the first thing Joe Biden did upon entering office was shut down the ongoing Wuhan Lab investigation.

I kind of agree with Xerxes. Getting it "right" after 5-10 years of sitting on big losses isnt getting it right in my book. A good friend once said to me(this is a high level exec at a small cap company, not a market wizard) "everyones right in the stock market if you hold long enough"...The goal is to maximize IRR. Given they got a mulligan here, take it and run and hope to move on to something else that maybe they do a better job with. I mean they already had a huge whiff on BB. Dont make the same mistake twice.

It also, if you want to take a bit of a leap in terms of logic, explains why they were able to come up with a vaccine so quickly, and also probably is marginally positive in terms of deducing that the vaccine is safe. There's also probably something to be said of the rumor that China had a vaccine going out in March of last year. And mysteriously their cases all but stopped. There's so much to this that deserves exploration, but they've all moved on cuz they used it to get what they wanted and now that they have its in their interest to change the subject.

I don't disagree, but I think that there's just so much to learn form this whole thing, and it doesnt seem like the majority of people learned anything. In fact I'd say they proved themselves to be dumber or more gullible than I could have imagined. There's always known and unknown variables out there that need to be underwritten into ones projections/models. Willfully ignoring them is dangerous. We cant spend the entire summer and fall fear mongering about the safety of the vaccine, and then all of a sudden turn around and tell everyone "oh its safe"...and then ridicule people for being skeptical. We cant allow people to purposely peddle a false narrative, refuse to investigate other theories, and then when they're wrong, just move on to the next story. The biggest expose in all of this was the unreliability of government officials, experts, and media. Their willingness to lie, harness something like this for personal gain/attention, and then just change the story and tell everyone to move on. Its horrendous.

Added some Z, BIDU, VIX calls, PTON puts, SPCE puts

Eh there was more than enough there to at least investigate, even from the onset. Instead, it was actively covered up and purposely not pursued. Even worse, it was deliberately emphasized that people should be discouraged from pursuing the Wuhan lab leak theory by many. And now it looks like the cover has been blown off and they're being exposed...but we won't even get a mea culpa or apology from these scumbags...they'll just move on to the next narrative they want to push and the only hope is that there's enough people out there who arent brainless enough to fall for it again. I mean event tangentially, I know Asian hate crimes are now a hot topic(finally), did it help or hurt that the media spent the first 12 months of this thing peddling the narrative that this originated because a bunch of Chinese people were eating bats or some shit at a dirty flea market? When in reality it was likely something that escaped from a lab that the US was funding....imagine that?

https://nypost.com/2021/05/26/fauci-facing-gop-calls-for-resignation-amid-wuhan-lab-controversy/ This is actually quite breathtaking. No, not another Fauci flip flop, but the fact that once again we have a scenario where some folks said it was likely lab leaked early on. What happened? They were disparaged, ridiculed, called conspiracy theory nuts, and even censored and silenced by the elitist scumbags. Now...turns out they were probably right, again. What do we know though? Follow the science right?

Its funny but I always think of 3 things when I see LearningMachine post. Interest rates, stock compensation, management shenanigans. 3 super important things and it often seems like 95% of the posts on this site concerning those subjects, are his. Keep it up. Also reminds me of the Big Short scene where the rabbi is freaking out because "he's trying to find inconsistencies in the word of God!"...

BIDU

If rates go to 6 and all else remains equal, probably, yea that causes some hiccups. But thats generally not the case and rates move up as other variables follow. You'd probably have significant wage increases for one which negates much of the 1-4 scenarios. A bigger interest payment is not really that big of a deal. Two, you have so many people still currently on the sidelines, that FOMO and BTFD will come into effect. Next leg of things is decreased regulation/lending requirements, which is the only way to make housing attainable for more people.

100%. The deception is staggering and makes the mortgage docs that led up to GFC look tame. Why is whats in the paperwork they force you to sign(on the spot, very little time to read) so much different in narrative than what they're shouting from the rooftops, blasting on the radio waves, and holding celebrity endorsed concerts for? If they are this certain, why won't they let you hold them accountable if anything goes wrong?

https://www.yahoo.com/news/michigan-governor-apologizes-apparent-social-074341180.html Rules for thee, but not for me. To quote scumbag, "Yesterday, I went with friends to a local restaurant. As more people arrived, the tables were pushed together. Because we were all vaccinated, we didn't stop to think about it", the governor said. Perhaps its time to stop "thinking about it" and just use common sense. Even sheeple can do it.

Ive seen similar around me but it just leads to massive price increases. Same as all the concern with sporting events, concerts, theme parks, etc...covid and the restrictions plus follow on effects of all that just created a very easy path to returning and having huge pricing power due to demand characteristics. If people will put in new floors or do additions to their homes when lumber is up 4x from a year ago, they'll pay 50% more for a concert ticket or 30% more for Tex-Mex or Italian food. What triggers people to become price sensitive again is what I am looking at. Even as people re-enter the workforce, many of these people are low intellect/skill types. Otherwise they're not collecting benefits. It may create a downward pressure on certain job associated wages, but it most likely won't lead to price decreases to the consumer. Its supply and demand to a degree but once businesses get you willing to pay something they never really relinquish it, especially in todays day and age where industry dominance is very much consolidated. Where I lean right now is that you're going to have fast inflation/low rates for a bit, then rates will have to kick up, but again, not crazy high...so maybe 3-5%...and then modest inflation. Some stuff will do better than others obviously. And no, I dont think 6% mortgages kill housing demand, at all.

Yea I dont think we get a melt down of any grand proportion. For one thing, theres just too much liquidity in the system. Its why ARKK and non FANG tech crap is just kind of slowly deflating rather than crashing. But this also feels different. Not in the sense of "this time its different" but in the sense that while there is definitely speculative excess and exuberance in some places...it seems more isolated. Crypto can go to hell(interestingly I think crypto has minted more poor and middle class wealth than anyone wants to admit), tech euphoria can burst....but in terms of every day life and all that...I think people are doing "well" finally. I dont see many people with multiple spec houses or 500 FICOs taking out SI IO mortgages...In a strange way it almost kind of seems like things are in a good spot. There's always hand to mouth types and of course when housing is hot there's dipshit mortgage guys/agents/contractors flaunting wealth. But I think we currently have a very high standard of living here in the states. And I kind of think its sustainable in the sense that labor market's supply/demand imbalance are going to start really rewarding people. Housing will continue rewarding people. Infrastructure spending will help people. There will be ups and down and like I mentioned the post before, we clearly arent at the bottom of the cycle anymore....so be cautious as always...but it also seems like there's some pretty good tailwinds in certain places.

So just from an observational standpoint, things are pretty interesting right now. Inflation is definitely here. Costs are soaring...but I am also not noticing anybody except financial people being bothered by it. Was with the kids and in laws out on the lake this weekend, and a few big observations.... First, WHOA, if you have a longer term approach, cycles are very easy to see happening. When I moved to the area I live, I bought my first boat in 2014 and no one wanted boats and the lake was crowded(most popular lake in NJ) but not crazy. Even now, we're still basically in early preseason, everyone has a boat, marinas are packed, midday on the lake on a weekend is a nightmare. In favor...Out of favor. I ve had the same thought over time in a lot of other areas. Sometimes on a short sighted basis, its hard to discern where we are in the grand scheme of things, but when you step back I think its really easy. Another point of caution as far as the markets go. Despite lumber costs soaring, building is booming. All over the lake and surrounding areas you have additions being done, new houses replacing old ones....if increases, and big freakin increases is hurting people...I just dont see it. Everyone is doing well. The "big truck douchebag index" is at a high I havent seen in maybe 15 years. Also soaring is the "moneyed up meathead with gold chain, barbed wire tattoo, LVMH/Gucci attire, leased Cadillac or Maserati index"....If whats going on right now isnt hurting people....what needs to change? While I agree stimulus is playing a role, its not buying boats or new cars(that I know of)...yes financing is key, but thats been there for a while. If the Fed budges things 1-2%, is that really hurting people? Frankly I'd rather have a 2.5% 10 yr than $10 for a pressure treated 2x4.

Pretty staggering. Who wants to deal with this mess? Answer....probably not many, and fewer and fewer. Come to Miami and Dallas people and business, they actually want you.

Haha yea much of that is true. I would also point out that more often than not the people complaining about quality of posts often bring very little of anything, let alone quality, to the table themselves. For a while a few months ago I recall a few people who rarely posted anything, and when they did it was just politics, making this claim. Basically freeloaders wanting more free shit lol. I find the site a great collective resource much like Spek stated. Same goes for people who complain that they dont find it useful for new ideas or dont find anything actionable/worthwhile....HUH?!?! Just in the past bit I can recall, you have shit ranging from wabuffo's masterful walkthrough on Garret Motion bankruptcy, to 150 bagger Enphase, or even boring shit like pupil and I talk about on AIV or JBGS.... people really cant find anything useful??? They're either full of it, lazy, or intellectually challenged. Even lately where the market has been fickle and ideas sparse, theres multiple ways to skin a cat. Ive been shorting PSTH puts for Aug/Sept. Its not sexy or going to be huge money, but 1.5-2.5% against the $20 liquidation inside of a few months is an OK IRR, better than nothing and pretty risk free. Its likely free cash because a deal probably doesnt close by then even if you announce Monday, or worst case you owns Bill's grand idea at a discount to IPO....You just have to look and not be lazy/scared. Understand that the market and ideas dont just fall into your lap on a platter and if you need to be in your comfort zone all the time you're going to underperform. If people want to complain about quality while freeloading themselves...who cares about people like that? If they cant find useful ideas or anything actionable in a literal sea of money being made...again, why is that anyone else's problem? If they're lazy, well start putting in the work. If they're bad investors or simply too risk averse for the market....well there's Cds and savings accounts....dont know what else to say.