Gregmal

Trimmed some BRKB, added to ARKG short, PTON puts, and picked up a few MSFT+APTS.

Personally Ive found it much easier, and also much more directly impactful to just be generous/considerate within the course of day to day life. You can find tons of worthy GoFundMe campaigns. You can do simple things like pay for the person behind you at the drive thru, you can tip 30%. Volunteering, especially if you believe time is money, is also a great direct way to contribute to the enrichment of the lives of others. If I sent money off to some third party run venture, I'm not quite sure what would ever come of it. However I can know for sure the people in the above examples feel good about it, and even if just temporary, it makes a positive difference for them.

Im as skeptical of money sucking WS types as any, and more often than not agree with you, but I do sense you are getting a little too into the weeds as far as Pabrai. If people want to pay him, thats there prerogative. Do you think a psychiatrist is worth $300 an hour? I call big time bullshit on that too. Basically psychic /palm reader level BS fortified in terms of marketing by a "degree" from an overpriced university.....but if people want to pay for that... by all means. Capitalism lets folks taker advantage of that. I have no problem there. That said, I do agree with you in regards to there being nothing special about value investors who did well when all value investors did well. I dont know if or how Pabrai fits into that, but a good investor adapts and evolves. Guys like Einhorn arent great investors because they refuse to adapt and their egos/pride are more important to them than making money. If that wasn't the case they wouldnt insist on fighting the tape for half a decade or more.

https://nypost.com/2021/04/27/charles-de-vaulxs-apparent-suicide-rattles-wall-street/ De Vaulx leaves behind a wife and two children. So I guess I'm alone in thinking this is only really sad because of what this leaves/burdens upon his wife and kids/loved ones? Otherwise its pretty selfish and pathetic IMO. Guy had everything and off's himself because his stupid financial firm shut down? I continue to be amazed at the WS/finance crowd and their MO that the only thing important in life is one's money/career. Both are shallow and miss the most important things in life.

Started some TRMT

Eh I don't pick my friends based on their investing performance, do you?

Everyone has an obligation to be responsible for themselves. If you have a talent, you are entitled to monetize it. If you have a need, it is in your interest to satisfy that need. Pabrai, like many others, is simply the bi product of a good salesman realizing that most folks are financially illiterate. Nothing more. Its really not that hard to do either. I find it incredible how easily impressed the common folk is by financial folks whom have "a lot" of money and some self aggrandizing story about how they got it.

Jesus Castanza. You're a jack of all traits. The ideal, pre-2000s male. A white collar blue collar guy. I wish I could do shit like that. I honestly wouldnt make it passed pulling permits though. I have no tolerance for dealing with all that shit and especially little tolerance for municipal clipboard people.

NVDA. Have come around to liking quite a bit the prospects of a long Z at 1%, long NVDA at 1%, and short NFLX at 1.5% trade.

^Yup! Lot of lessons to be learned. If nothing else though, when it comes to financial markets, dont be afraid to think for yourself and go against the crowd. Dont be scared of being on the unpopular side of the trade. Dont let hysteria influence you. And especially, dont just blindly say "Buffett thinks....." and follow suit. The truth is, some people, seem to refuse to learn or adapt. They'll just head into the next generational opportunity singing tunes like "an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure" and once again miss it. Even Buffett swiftly pivoted after his disastrous AGM showing and saw the greater picture mid summer. An ounce of prevention may be worth a pound of cure, but a pound of cure aint +56% on S&P in 12 months(or more if you got creative)....always certain!

Sorry to hear of your loss. I do actually recall, IIRC it was John Hjorth, probably back around this time a year ago, having significant concerns for India specifically. What puzzles me, is that considering how globally connected everything is, as far as information goes...how does a year pass and yet we still the level of pure chaos that is currently being seen in India? How dont we have adequate supplies? I am by no means an expert on India, but to think this has been around for over a year and the worst is still happening in places is bizarre. Brazil was another puzzling one although I think different factors were at work there. Conversely, we havent really heard all that much out of Asia anymore. Without getting into it too severely as I always feel Im treading on ice with respect to covid and Sanjeev's tolerance for politics, but is the issue with covid really the politics of it? Its seems(again not specific to red/blue) that many of the areas that have been outliers suffered from lack of flexibility in terms of adapting on the political front. In respect to the markets, I dont recall you being an obnoxious ass about it. Everyone is obviously entitled to their opinions. Some are more skilled in their ability to forecast than others, but there were a few folks here who went out of their way to viscously disparage, mock, and even attempt to bully people whom disagreed with them...and those are the people who happened to be hilariously wrong and quoted above. If you are going to behave like that, at the least, you better be right. There were lot of folks who underestimated the markets, but they were humble about it and generally cordial and didnt make total fools of themself. Others, not so much.

Just wanted to bump this on the one year anniversary of some of the greatest contrarian indicators of all time here of COBF. The genius authors of these can remain nameless however the March-June pages here were quite something! Third and fourth weeks of April last year there were folks making claims such as( some paraphrasing): "I hope you & your kind are active participants in the market for sure" April 26, 56% return had you listened! Better answer for him: "If you truly think the whole world is wrong and you are right, the futures market opens at 6 pm EST" March 15-basically the bottom "If you are as confident as you are that you are correct, the financial markets are providing you plentiful opportunities to profit handsomely. " Mid March....Yup, plentiful indeed. "President Cuomo"....this didnt age well! "I don't commit to numbers in the face of rapid compounding and wide uncertainty, but I do sell my stocks and go to cash when I sensed this disaster unfolding". Thats too bad On Michael Burry and Mr. Cuomo: "Well he went in big on Gamestop and Tailored Brands, so not surprising." "Galileo's investments in Gamestop and Tailored Brands need the Church to listen! Galileo may be suffering from an acute case of incentive caused bias (Even Newton wasn't immune to the whims of the South Sea Company)... But yes, what Pres Cuomo is already planning...a strategic reopening." "Presidential--with a capital 'P'. Somebody jelly of President Cuomo, wants to capture the political upside of Cuomo's stellar management". LMFAO! Ooops! "The market has provided ample opportunity for those who missed this in March to cash out with the S&P now where it was in October 2019. There should be no valid excuse for these people if they lose their shirts." Late April..sooo prescient "So Sam Zell, Buffett, and Icahn are cautious on the sidelines and on the other side you have folks like Bill Ackman. Take your pick..." Well...Ackman did 70%. Buffett barely broke even, Icahn sucked wind, and Zell...who cares? "and then they'll cry and talk about "who could have predicted this". Whelp....obviously some of us could have, but not all of us! S&P since then? One of the truly great, generational, perhaps even once in a lifetime buying opportunities... ~+56% over the next 12 months The cream eventually rises to the top and the turds get flushed down the toilet and go away. As they say, never in doubt! Nostradamus! Always certain! I hope you all were invested in the markets! If not, just remember, an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure! Just ask Taleb. Buffett and Icahn were both bearish. Only stooopid people buy stonks during a pandemic! Dumb aphorisms for the win! And yea, I 100% did flag these posts at the time to throw them in peoples faces down the road. When people run their mouths they deserve accountability. Cheers

Isnt this kind of how it starts? They have trouble getting staff, cant meet pent up demand, and as a result wages must go up.

Exited modest sized, long held, fully margined positions in V, DPZ, ARE. Good time to be bolstering liquidity, IMO.

Started a plain vanilla short on NFLX. ~1.5% position.

They'll likely be exploited. The irony in all the US/China drama is that the US basically created the monster that is China because we saw benefits to low wage labor, cheap products, and exploitation of their resources. So we incentivized and put the wheels in motion and now they just kind of figured out how to push us back/cut us out....and we're outraged.

picked up a few NVR

I have both. S just seems relatively cheaper with much less risk. Just less of a catalyst/reopening play. Dolans done mighty fine in regards to creating shareholder value over the years, so Id expect that to continue. EDIT: also added a few JOE today

You're certainly not alone. People looking for homes cant buy homes at reasonable prices. Investors cant buy crap at a reasonable price either. Home builders cant build fast enough. Corporations have an increasing need to place money somewhere and real estate has always been top of the list. Nothing is stopping this freight train. All one needs to do is make sure they find something in the ecosystem to invest in this tailwind, and beyond anything else, just avoid execution risk/bad management. Outside of that its easy and straight forward and probably going to be a dominant theme for at least the next half decade but probably much longer. Again, Canada has been in a so called "housing bubble" for two decades.

A friend jokingly told me that he read something basically stating that you are significantly more likely to be physically hurt or killed walking through parts of Chicago than you are from getting covid. This seems to be acceptable though as I havent really heard anyone making a big deal of this nationally. And the only shots related to this certainly dont provide immunity. These things dont go away overnight. Or even in years. I've seen the same thing with respect to NYC as well. Ultimately, these places make their beds and now lie in it. Despite this, suburban NYC metro area real estate is pretty hot right now. A lot of moving pieces here but the main thing is that coastal cities dont offer what they used to. I grew up regularly hanging out around and in NYC. And like another posted said about Chicago, at this point I dont even know if I'd want to bring my kids there for a day trip.

If there is no relevance to his thesis then it just comes off like excuse making, which seems to be the case with every letter.

Added a bit more of MSGS.

Ive read the book as well and its a great read, but I mean does it really take a genius to realize regulator action is a poor bet? Ackman nailed everything about Herbalife and got nowhere. Regulators do not want to kill companies or cause too much disruption. Having had a business a while ago that regularly had to interact with regulators, I can tell you that they love going after the small and irrelevant companies hard. Many people believe they are in favor of consolidation as it makes their jobs easier. They just dont take action nor wish to fight with companies that can push back. And thats just the way it is. Its just remarkable to me, how people like Einhorn refuse to learn or adapt and rather just sit there for eternity claiming they are right and everyone else is wrong. Allied wasnt even that great of a short and realistically, it only blew up because everything else did due to the fallout of GFC. Not because Einhorn was eventually right. I thought his Lehman work was some of his best and most timely.

Man, I'd love to own 170,000 acres in the panhandle if thats the case.

Hilarious. Will it ever end? https://seekingalpha.com/news/3682289-greenlights-einhorn-takes-on-lax-regulators-gamestop-short-squeeze-in-q1-letter Basically "I failed to learn anything and missed some big potential catalysts and lost a ton of money shorting.....again. And its everyone else's fault"