Gregmal

As Ive said to a lot of folks, one of the more amazing things to me is that Prem Watsa still has the reputation he does. Media in Canada is obviously much different than in the US, although as we ve seen with Gates and Bezos...they too can be crafted. But generally speaking, if FFH was based in Virginia, or Alabama, or California..rather than Canada...man, IDK...it definitely doesnt have half the ardent defenders/loyalists it currently does, probably trades at .6x book, and is regarded as basically the company that cant do anything right. In regards to the outlook now, a recurring theme was "well if you bought March 2020(or insert big decline) then".... Except thats bullshit. I am all for a big trade. But as an investment, when all you have to hang your hat on is "well if you bought the bottom after everyone got TOO pessimistic"...thats not a good investment at all. A good INVESTMENT, shouldn't be reliant on getting the timing right because the business should be good enough to consistently create enough value to reward you. Folks need to start being honest with themselves here in regards to all the above.

Ding, ding, ding. Everyone keeps looking at whats going right, and theres a good amount of that. But thats not your relevant yo-yo activating input here. What will ultimately cause FFH to rerate? Personally, I think theres enough evidence on the table to say that its not: 1) insurance making boatloads of money 2) equity portfolio doing well 3) "value" investments returning to glory 4) rate changes Its still Prem. And nothing to me further demonstrates that nothing has changed there than the handling of Blackberry. Still cant admit he's wrong. Still cant/won't monetize an easy gift from the market. Still wants to do it his way. And thats all you need to continue to see a massive cloud over this.

Yea the bankers quite regularly seem to fall back on internal models which price these based on what phase a biotech company is in or how far away they are from generating revenue. Same thing happened with BEAM and not much later it was a 5 bagger. Not saying the same occurs with CRBU, but what I will say is that I would have paid more than the current market cap to own shares pre IPO. So I like it here. Doesnt take much to start moving the needle, as we just saw with NTLA the past year.

Because I always have to be that guy here.... theres lots, and has been lots of easy money out there folks. And over and over we keep hearing the same drum beat about FFH "eventually" catching fire....is there a need to be the one who finally gets blood from a stone? In other words, are you averse to just taking the easy route or something? We're well into a market where insurance is on fire, FFH equities have gone nuts, Watsa hasn't done anything crazy in a while....isnt it shit or get off the pot soon time? As they say...SHOW ME THE FUCKIN MONEY!

Caribou has long been a private market white whale of mine. I generally have pretty good luck snagging private shares in companies I like but this one always evaded me, including a few ROFRs. I wrote up the entire CRISPR theme here some years ago, and like most wildly successful investments here, it was largely an unpopular thread and IIRC met with a lot of skepticism or critique. At the time, you could buy every real public market CRISPR play for a valuation of less than $5B. Today that number is north of $40B or so. Theres been some major developments, but in terms of the players, the main thing is that EDIT is an established turd and NTLA has made some serious progress. The only two major players that Im aware of that remained non public were Caribou and Synthego. So now that CRBU is public I just bit the bullet and bought a position. I dont even think the valuation, net cash, is that egregious. Caribou has always kind of been more secretive and stands out IMO as having the greatest IP protections and pipeline to new CRISPR uses through the platform along with maybe BEAM.

Bought some food for the kids on the way to the shore this morning. When the heck did McDonalds become so expensive? Ordered 2 hash browns(used to be .99 each) and a sausage egg and cheese(IIRC always like $3...was featured in the Buffett HBO doc!) and it was $8.30! Then went across to Burger King and got a jr cheeseburger, 10 piece chicken nuggets(same 10 piece nugget at MCD are like $5), a rodeo burger, small fries, mozzarella sticks, and a chocolate milk...for $8.74. I dont know why anyone would ever eat at MCD...only attraction used to be how cheap the food is. Now the same dogshit, plastic play food is more expensive than Burger King or Wendys and both of the later choices are significantly better quality.

I think it depends on a few things. Mainly, your time horizon for the trade and also secondarily the liquidity of the investment. For instance, there was some concern about ESRT management when I made that investment. I found that to be misplaced, but nonetheless ultimately figured that given the dynamic of what was occurring in the world, and the uniqueness of the ESRT assets, that a 1-3 year investment didnt need a good management because at such depressed valuations, some value could be destroyed and it could still work out. Also, I think how good or capable a team is, is largely subjective. Theres the upper 5%, IE the Buffetts, Bakers, Lourenco Goncalves types....and there's the lower(won't name names)...but most companies fall in between. I used to speak with management teams and NEOs all the time. But its a waste. No one tells you, hey Im a scumbag just looking to line my pockets. They all generally say the right things and by nature, even the bad ones, spend most of the time doing the right things because why not? Its only in rare situations where theres a conflict of interest that can cause a lot of damage, IE making a terrible acquisition just to grow the size of the company, issuing shares, etc....So while I look for management Im comfortable with, IE PCYO Mark Harding is a boss....I dont place as much weight on it as you would think. I mean perfect example is Dolan....hes so polarizing. Tons of people run their mouths about Dolan in a negative way, however when pressed for examples of bad behavior...I haven't heard anything of merit...What? He's an asshole to Charles Oakley? Whereas I can name tons of things he s done that put him in elite company in terms of creating value...nevertheless, maybe the haters are correct? Hard to tell and ultimately, when I look at MSGS(another 10%+ position for me) I just see the Knicks and Rangers as indestructible, one of a kind assets that even an idiot cant destroy.

I feel like this entire comment is so on the money the only thing to do is +1 it. And to @BG2008 points, yea...I definitely think RE is a great way to wade oneself into the unraveling of many popular misconceptions about debt and concentration. I also think the people who are afraid of concentrating in a stock do so out of lazily accepting a narrative. "Its just a stock"....Well, when you get down to the nitty gritty, if you're able to conceptualize your ownership as assets...same as privately owning a SFH, this sort of mentality gets put to rest. The key of course is to make sure its bulletproof...no lingering liabilities or debt that can take your asset away, no albatross obligations, etc. But its one of the reasons I tend to stay focused on small caps. Its easy for me to internalize owning 900 acres of an MPC and the water rights with PCYO. Fuck if I know deep down what I really own with some $10B+ software company who issues stock like its going out of style. Thats why one could be a 20% position and the other might just be 2-3%. Also to SDs point, I consider myself kind of the king of the 25-50% move, but outside of the MSG universe and HTL....couldnt hit a real compounder/multi bagger to save my life in terms of doing so with a 5%+ position. My way of compounding is basically taking 10-20% and going from(just using last year as an example) GRIF 35-50, to ESRT from 7-10, to AIV from high 4s to low 6s, to ALCO from $30 to 40s....I just dont have the skill or the vision others have in that area to see how tech co ABC goes from 14 to 400 over 10 years. Also important I think for folks with concentration is to leave money out of it. Investing really is about odds and percentages. Its the same as playing poker. If you react to the amount of money being bet, you'll suck a fat one. If you react to what the setup and probable outcomes are, you'll do well. Too many people get mental when they start thinking in terms of "six/seven figure amount of money" vs, super high probability 25% allocation. Just some thoughts. Good commentary so far.

Thought this would make an interesting topic. Theres good ideas, and then there's punch card ideas. I think any reasonably capable investor, if they sit down for an hour, can find ideas that are good enough, and actionable enough to make money. But those are just general ideas, hardly bet the farm type ideas. 0-3% allocations. However, every so often, we all come across a company, a sector, a theme, or just a super high probability setup where you know you're going to make money. My question for folks is, whats the most % wise you've put into a high conviction idea, and whats your typical high conviction allocation? For me, I think if you're not doing at least 5%, but probably at minimum 10%....you're wasting your time. You can compound 1-2% ideas at 50% annually and your still not going to get rich any time soon. But generating alpha on 10%+ positions gets things done. A once every couple year type idea I'll generally be comfortable going up to about 40%. But average, 1-2 type situations a year, Im generally in between 10-15%. The only things I weigh when doing this are probability of a profitable outcome, and cost to fund the idea. For example, a SPAC at 9.80 may take 18 months but is a guaranteed 2%. To me, a waste of time because my Margi costs 1% and the net IRR sucks. But Berkshire at $230 with any decline a buying opportunity means buy hand over fist. Or FRPH cruising into a decade long tailwind trading still at covid prices. Or ALCO trading flat for a decade and at a 20% discount to a 2013 change of control deal despite the core biz about to inflect at 10x earnings and the land value going parabolic. These are 12-40% allocation ideas Ive put on in the past 12 months. Curious how others express themselves when they find a money tree.

CRBU

Got loose confirmation that there is indeed some retard with a semi sized fund liquidating MSGE, so Im buying more. Added little bit more ALCO as well. Shorted more CLF puts.

Maybe opportunistic...who knows. But PSTH looks like a pretty good cash alternative with the above mentioned situation in mind. Im closing on a new property in about a month and pulled half the down payment from non core stuff and chucked it there. Rest I'll borrow from IB at 1%.

Ya you and I definitely agree on this. Take that whole "textbook allocation" they say to put in bonds and just buy RE with a 30 year fixed! 1/3 stocks, 1/3 bonds. 1/3 RE should really just be 50/50 or in my case 70/30 RE/stocks.

Horrible numbers. Can't believe people are actually buying this here.

Look at high quality bank or REIT preferred stocks.

1/21/22 $12.50 APTS calls.

Yea me too(not calls but more shares). Looking at more aggressively selling some puts too. Its kind of dumb whats going on right now. Are people really stupid enough to get tricked into selling their stocks again? Today the market plummeted...in the real world home prices are at records, gas is the highest its been in years, HRC is near ATHs, and folks are going out like never before. Seems bizarre for the market to be so caught off guard by a predictable July 4th surge...

Yea gonna have to confer with the scientists on how to "float it"...LOL

Just put another 3/2 waterfront townhome under contract. 30 year fixed FTW. YOLO.

added XLE LEAPs

I dont know what constitutes a blow up....but in my book, spending nearly an entire decade, which also happened to be one of the greatest bull markets in history, long crapcos that lose tons of money, and short the very best performers....IDK man, thats pretty unforgivable and what sets guys like Watsa and Einhorn apart from the guys who just overconcentrated and got one wrong.

Just in general, the ones I know of that do well, are owner/operator/family run. Its also a great semi retirement "gig"/investment. But if its hands off....definitely not a great risk/reward for you.

The trading on this has been consistent. Buy immediately after good news and hold for a few days. Sell/short immediately after bad news, hold for a few weeks. Holding this long term(as I have) has been a waste of time.

One word....LIABILITY

Anyhow, added a good bit to MSGE. Not sure what kind of retard is selling at this valuation...from those I've talked with mainly its folks who dont like that its not a "pureplay" or have concerns about Dolan....ironically enough, basically the type of people who make those claims but then own crap like Viacom or the Malone entities....(hint, Dolan has destroyed Malone in terms of capital allocation over the past decade, but let the narrative persist). Anyhow, at $75 you can basically write down the entire Sphere to land plus scrap and still get upside. And who knows, maybe Boyar is right about MSGN and its worth 50% more than they paid(I dont see that, but who knows?)