Gregmal

The Arizona Coyotes have better attendance than the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Buffett has made plenty of mistakes, but so have we all, if counting things we missed is in there. The difference with most, is simply omission vs commission. Its largely why I dislike Fairfax but at various points like to load the boat on Berkshire. Buffett when he acts, typically gets it right or misses small. He'll drive everyone nuts doing nothing. But this is preferable to Watsa who is always doing something and screws up, big, quite frequently. Much easier to forecast the former than the latter. All Buffett needs to do at these prices is marginally buyback stock and let the businesses operate. If he gets anything else right, watch out.

So why so bullish on BRK? Is it absolute value? Relative value? Cyclical play? What are a catalysts to get the stock moving? More buybacks? Mystery new purchase? Buffett finally putting cash hard to work? One headwind is Apple valuation (very expensive and could come way down if we get a sell off). Do you really like financials? I do like BRK; it looks cheap... is it crazy cheap (to warrant big overweight)? Just trying to understand... Just my opinion of course but its all of the above and then some. Apple may have been a huge home run, but that certainly didnt get fully priced into the shares. I bring up from time to time my mistake of buying BRK at $196 in Jan 2019 bc I liked the exposure to AAPL at $160(pre split) and all the financials... I think buybacks will be solid, although somewhat muted as a result of the longer YE-Q1 blackouts requirements. But going forward I would expect repurchase figures to ramp, much more in line with the most recent Q than those before it. Financials have also run, but again, BRK? Not so much. Insurance should be solid. Energy will continue rebounding. Heck this darn thing is basically flat y/y. I view the spring as coiled. It can win as a cyclical, it can win if rates rise, it can win from these levels in so many different scenarios that the optionality becomes very appealing. Its only a matter of time before the money flow finds its way here as the value proposal between this and the rest of the market is too big to ignore. The upside will happen. Ive noticed this thing tends to move in quick bursts. Downside will be buffered by all the cash, the recovering economy, and buybacks. I see many scenarios where this could easily peel of 15-20% to the upside. I have a very hard time envisioning the same type of downside. $190 is very hard to picture. So I think the deck is stacked quite favorably here and as such, its time to bet big.

More BRK, closing in on 20% allocation!

Yea well thats the beauty of the market and people who get emotional about investing.

Not to sound like a dipshit, but you guys should know by now that these trade like molasses. Good news bleeds up and bad news bleeds down, and Ive never really seen the entirety of this play out at the open or even by noon after an "announcement". Typically days or weeks. My NGAF read is that this is reasonably positive for the preferreds and not so great for common. But I have no clue otherwise as this is just a never-ending drama. See you in court as they say. I'd probably lean towards marginally adding here.

I typically look for 3-6 month windows, 20%+ OTM. But you need to have some kind of catalyst. Otherwise puts are just a waste, IMO and you are better off just sizing an outright short properly, or doing something around an ETF/index. They're great because if you go out of the money and time it right you can easily get 3-5x out of it, and then just roll it down the chain until it stops working.

Wouldn't it just be easier for Prem to poach the ARK team/buy the franchise and claim they are running the equity portfolio? j/k

Well, in the worst case scenario? People like us buy homes!

I bought a few shares but finally gave in and picked up some leaps as well. 2022 175s.

added more BRK.

If you think Deere is bad, check out WD40.

Thats definitely an interesting and creative idea. I feel like its also an idea inspired by being in a bubble! Whats a man got to do to buy some reasonable priced growth stocks! But yea, that does kind of get to the core of where shorting out quality discrepancies within the valuations would make sense.

Thats a good component of my short/hedge basket. I'd add ZM and BYND although BYND Ive covered a little bit as Impossible is garnering a $4B valuation in private rounds, which if you translate that to a public valuation, doesnt make BYND seem as egregious. Although I still think its egregious, I'd just be mindful of what that could imply as far as short/intermediate downside may be. Others, NVAX, FCEL, TLMD, JKS, FEYE and maybe..although I have some hesitations, CVNA and PTON. And, no, you never lose all your money if you came prepared. If you cant take a short going against you 5-10x you shouldn't be shorting or are doing it wrong. I also think outright shorting to make money isnt ideal 95% of the time. It's more an attractive way to offset some risks being long if you pair/size it properly. 10 up, 3 down is still +7. The attractiveness is that if you are somewhat in the same ballpark from a timing perspective, both sides can work out. But up 3, up 6 for example, shouldn't be the expectation bc you'll leave disappointed more often than not.

The reality is that they need to kickstart the rebound so Biden can not only get credit for curing covid and cancer, but also saving the economy. Especially those of deep blue states. Notice how the news outlets are already declaring it "Biden's $2,000 stimulus checks"? Odd, because unless I am mistaken, one guy called for $2,000 checks, and it wasnt Joe, it wasnt Nancy, and it definitely wasnt Mitch.

Im just wondering where the rest of the market is? BRK is a no brainer here. Its basically a cash alternative at these levels, especially with the financials having gone ballistic. Nothing is priced in.

BRKB, CLPR, FRG starter

I don't think there is anything on the REIT disclosures. Ive previously gone as high as about 4.5% and currently have 2 that are between 1-3%. Never filed anything or been told Ive had to. My understanding for REITs is they need to have the 5/50 thing down, but that would be an obligation of the company and its agent in order to validate the tax status, should they get audited.

So the folks associated with the incoming administration have a history of stealing things?

Found out my 98 year old grandmother will be getting the vaccine on Friday. She will be going with my aunt(her daughter) and uncle. Both of whom already got the vaccine. My aunt being a substitute teacher and my uncle being on the board of a hospital! Both when asked if they wanted it, retorted with "shouldn't other people get it first" and the response was that they just so happened to have them laying around, and someone needed to take them. What a remarkable rollout.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/andrew-cuomo-economy-reopen-coronavirus Who would have thought? Perhaps conspiracy theorists? Despite repeated cries from Fuuci about the worst being ahead of us....Cuomo is now looking to open NYC...does anyone know what changed in the past couple months? In related news, Chicago has also decided to suddenly re-open schools. Bizarre.

Usually the annual reports list property by property for the entities. Even if you just have a name you can typically parlay that with a Google search into an address and tax record filing.

Morguard Corp(MRC), and Morguard REIT(MRT) have all that stuff. North American(MRG) is pureplay residential and IMO the crown jewel that most people arent even aware of.

I'd throw MRG in there as well on multi family. Trades at half of NAV and 30% discount to historical average. Good yield. High ownership from Sahi; who is an incredible operator. Basically a Sun Belt hybrid with some exposure to the recovery areas in Canada as well.

Sold some MX. Paid down some margin. Started GILT.