Gregmal

Yea I like these as alpha boosters so to speak. You can just ladder into em and flip the trading range. If they ever get super cheap you T off.

Yea as a housing guy, I love the guts suppliers. LII, CARR, AOS...all been smaller but well performing positions that benefit off very little but continuation of life.

Added some to AOS.

The last 4 years have been pretty mediocre for the normal, non stock market people. You had COVID which upended life as we knew it. Then inflation kicked peoples asses, and then a reckless rate hike campaign that accomplished very little other than making the bigger things in life even more expensive then they already were. Not sure Trump is gonna change things to the degree people hope, but it’s pretty clear people have some hope again.

Sentiment really matters in the REAL economy. If people are feeling good about their jobs and the future they’re probably spending more.

He’s in a unique situation where he’s new to stocks and just got a huge lump sum of cash. I don’t mind helping people but also am not trying to have him totally reliant on me forever, so part of the process is getting him comfortable and accustomed to the idea that stocks are not just fluctuating numbers but ownership in a business and one of the ways I like to do that for people is with businesses they know and interact with regularly. No one is getting rich on PEP but no one’s losing their shirt. No interest in fixed income and cash is a waste of time and he’s already got a lot of it in need of being deployed.

I’ve always been a big fan of the way things are done in New England. New Hampshire especially. It’s just getting a little too left leaning, which always seems to be the natural progression.

Yea New England, and especially Massachusetts, pretty much embody the liberal elitist culture. Reasonably conservative with their own finances, super liberal with their ideology, incredibly generous when it comes to allocating or redirecting OPM, all from the comforts of a gated community or fenced in property with large "no trespassing" signs.

Yea I got some PEP for my friends account today. These are decent values given all else.

They’re incapable. They’re more concerned with things they are brainwashed into thinking matter, that don’t really matter. Like “protecting democracy”, “freeing Palestine” and “eradicating hate”…. Of course those things “matter”, but the people are only fed these emotion grabbing topics to keep them from behaving rationally. They get occupied and emotionally invested in things they have no say in, and the haves just keep winning.

Gaetz as AG is definitely a little jaw dropping. But I mean so is what they've turned the Justice Department into over the past decade. People's only concern should be, how do I profit off this?

Yea I’ve rarely seen a stock as boring as msge trade as wildly on relatively nothing. The earnings were solid and everyone knows Q1 is always their seasonally soft quarter. The setup is nice as they are coming into their money printing season and have already indicated returning capital to shareholders should occur sometime in the spring. At $1.7b market cap they could pretty easily takeout another 5-10% of shares funded almost entirely from next 2-3 Qs of incoming cash.

Been clearing out the various FNMA preferred, last of Pcyo, and buying more MSGE, ABNB plus starter in NKE.

This is ultimately the hopium that never lets the macro guys let go and kick a bad habit. It’s always just so obvious what happened before, even though none of them predicted it.

Talking about investments that interest them?.... I dont get it LOL. I dont think I'd spend much time on something I didnt own or that didnt interest me. Nor do I see whats so devious about that? Again it seems you are asking a lot of questions, seeking a specific answer, and not really acknowledging other counter points. You seem to want to conclude that the only way Bitcoin has any value is via stock promotion.

That supply and demand would accelerate because at the institutional level you would see adoption, ie ETF, futures, etc. It seems you are trying to pigeonhole the entire BTC bull case into simply "stock promotion". But even there, its not really much of anything controversial; that's like saying Apple shareholders will benefit from the promotion and adoption of the iPhone. Yea, thats how all this stuff works. Whats the problem?

I don’t think so; I owned it for years, really never felt inclined to do that. Just owned it and let time do its thing. My thesis involved the product being institutionalized which largely occurred. People talking about something that’s interesting to them isn’t the same as stock promotion, which is what you’re talking about, and again, stock promotion isn’t something specific to bitcoin.

I mean isn’t that technically the case with anything you can exchange for value? I personally don’t think that needs to occur, but it’s certainly not specific to Bitcoin. I’ve seen Apple trade higher on an analyst upgrade…who cares?

Exactly, if you don’t believe it will be more popular in 1/3/5/10 years from now there’s no point owning it.

Same as everything, supply and demand imbalance. Look at the 15-45 demographic, digital adoption, how is it viewed by the 1%(whom are increasingly tech guys), what about its uses: what does it offer people as an alt? There’s a very good chance it will be viewed as digital gold. I still for the life of me have never understood the appeal of gold. Yet tons love it, ironically enough even, a ton of value investors lol.

I don’t know if that’s the right way to look at it. Personally, I would view having to do that as burdensome. Rather, I would try to look at whether there are existing headwinds or tailwinds in place that allow the supply and demand to work in your favor. The biggest driver of the Mickey Mantle is the prosperity of Boomers. Same as I’d expect say a 1999 graded Charizard to have a pretty solid next 20-40 years due to the coming of age and wealth of those whom were crazy about Pokemon as kids. Look at premier sports teams. It’s purely an income inequality/1%er growth bet. But it’s highly predictable. Think Bitcoin does have a lot of overlap with these sorts of things.

Of course lol

Ugh this thread is in the shitter…. Bitcoin is like gold, worthless unless people ascribe value to it. There’s no intrinsic value. What I’ve seen my entire life, is the people whom have largely an academic or textbook investment framework, have a very hard time coming around to the idea that something that doesn’t have easy plug ins can be worth anything. It can be a Picasso, a 1952 Mickey Mantle, a Football Club, a piece of Land, a vintage sports car, etc, they struggle with and most ultimately just give up and slap some derogatory name on it and call it a day. The truth being, most of those alt investments, have been and will continue to be, extremely lucrative, largely because they are both popular, and also neglected. You either get it, or you don’t.

An opinion piece and bond prices back to where they were a few months ago proves this?

Obama was such an elegant and inspiring speaker. His first campaign was run to perfection. Halfway through his first term though, he started running into issues getting stuff passed and in order to try to get things done, began resorting to this sorta “anyone who disagrees with me does so because they’re racist” crap. The rest is history.