Gregmal

I dont know if I'd expect a total repeat of 2000 and expect a precipitous crash, theres probably too much liquidity for that. But I think its clear the top is in for certain popular themes....do folks really see ARKG getting back to $115 any time soon. Personally I would think you just see a gradual bear market type decline. Rallies get faded, new lows put in. Similar to what we've already been seeing. There's also, a large segment of stuff that I wouldnt expect to be effected at all, IE BRK and the like. Its a good market for the fundamental investor IMO.

Its just an educated guess so take it with a grain of salt. The retail leases vary. Anchors generally have 10+ with 5 year options. Smaller spaces can be anything from 12-60 months, sometimes even 10 years. I think the bigger thing is the behind the scenes stuff. You can start working on this stuff but ultimately a lot has to happen to get anything memorialized and only once things are memorialized will a transaction occur and only after that you would begin to see progress on a new development. A shopping center and small MPC by me took almost a decade to get together just in terms of rezoning and entitlements and all those fun paperwork based approvals. Funny side story is that there was a bit of a tussle when one of the dudes who signed a 15 year lease on one of the outparcels was told the town wasnt issuing any more liquor licenses....whoops. Lotta planning and palm greasing in some of these places. If I again had to guess Id say the small strip center is worth more dead than alive and the last thing the owner wants to do is restart the clock by signing a couple crummy leases.

A lot of times that means theyre looking to run off the tenants and then reposition it or do something completely new. Seen stuff like this with shopping centers which then get converted to urgent care/medical centers or senior living/student housing type setups.  Just a guess though. Also, many times its not the owner doing the leg work but a developer who will either be a partner in the venture or take control via a purchase option generally contingent on getting the approvals.

I doubt these are isolated at all. Perhaps even this is the beginning of the pendulum swing back to normal as we've had a decade long run of increasing leverage to the point where nobody thinks there is risk anymore and the short interest vs market basically non existent. Saw a neat chart the other week comparing levels of short interest and currently there is nothing even remotely comparable to the short capitulation we ve been seeing outside of the period just prior to the tech bubble bursting. I mean we've seen all this shit unfold in basically 2 months...and many of these WS chumps run the same books and utilize the same strategies....one falls they are feel ripples. Theres some talk out there that the GME saga had a role in how this played out. The volatility is great though. Bring it on.

I think taking money out of your primary home for anything other than a sure thing is probably a bad idea. Crypto is far from a sure thing and even if it were there's characteristics of it that are far from predictable. With equities it would of course depend on what you're looking at. Generally speaking though, I think your idea makes sense for the semi adventurous person with a reasonable risk tolerance.

Took a starter here today as well. First time owning it since probably 2017 or so. Setup looks nice.

https://nypost.com/2021/03/29/cdc-director-dr-rochelle-walensky-warns-of-impending-doom/ LOLzzzz. More theatre from the fear mongering bureaucrats...."hold on a little longer!" ha, no! how about STFU. Get my 2nd shot Friday. Only doing it once. If I start hearing about how we need shots every year for the "mutant" variants, I'll probably have to put my foot down.

No, no. Im mainly short SPAK which is predominantly post deal close. Look at the holdings there! Such a beautiful basket of poopoo. Shorting pre deal is dumb because whats you're downside...5-10%, maybe in best case scenario? I still think pre deal spacs are somewhat interesting, especially on a case by case basis. Pre deal, pre announcement names you can once again pick up units pretty universally below 10.2 and a lot sub $10. Post deal announcement but pre close is actually probably one of the better ways to play market volatility right now, at least that I can think of. If you can snag something near $10 that was trading mid teens pre blow up and then use  the redemption deadline as your backstop you're probably going to do ok trading it. I wouldnt touch anything post deal close with a 10 ft pole though. Right now many are breaking $10 and then everything that works for them pre close works against them post close. Edit: I'd also add....guess what else is looking pretty good right now as a store of value, especially in the face of big banks once again reminding everyone that you never quite know whats lurking on the books?

Melvin and the #metoo NYC funds and their brilliant short positions, Achegos---->Nomura, ARK offloading liquid positions for illiquid positions. How many funds are levered big to SPAC pipes or units? As Ive said plenty in prior weeks and months, I think short the high growth covid fads is finally a sound proposition and have short positions in the ARK funds. Puts on ARK + spac ETFs as well. Still have some SPAK short but was bought in on about 1/3 of the position I have at one firm a couple weeks back. Looking to put it on again but also starting to feel post deal close spac are going to start getting ugly and good shorts here. I also think its a good time to be hedging with VIX calls. Leverage is a fun thing and like with Archegos, who knows where and who it blows up! Who's seeing the matrix? How are people playing this?

No problem! I dont know these people it was just a very tragic story I came across scrolling around, both Cohodes and Kuppy flagged it so good for them...both awesome dudes. If there is nothing else the past year has taught us its to be grateful and not take shit for granted. Too often I think folks with financial backgrounds or mentality become petty and cheap, and become too focused on planning for the next 5/10/20 years out, etc. Skipping the $3 coffee, tipping 15% based on pre tax amount, etc...I think thats a sad way to live and when you think of it, nothing is guaranteed in life. You really need to appreciate and live for today while also planning for tomorrow. Giving back is the right thing to do. We are all super fortunate. Even folks with $50-100k in a savings account, let alone those with 6/7/8 figures....we're all super-good for today and tomorrow and plenty of people arent. If everyone made an effort to be a little less cheap/more generous maybe the scumbag politicians wouldnt be able to goad everyone into class warfare and all that crap. For me I try to find something like this once a month or so and contribute. Doesnt have to be a lot of money but just an exercise in thinking of others which also forces you to really appreciate how good you have it and not take it for granted. Cheers!

All the money being made by fortunate folks like us, do something positive with some of it. https://www.gofundme.com/f/nicholas-caleb-johnson-support?utm_campaign=m_pd+share-sheet&utm_medium=copy_link_all&utm_source=customer

https://www.yahoo.com/news/virus-fight-stalls-early-hot-140524851.html Meanwhile Vin Gupta wants to go on CNBC last week and talk about AZ/TX/FL..... edit: cleaned up some adjectives to describe the disingenuous academic fool Gupta

^ There's nothing necessarily wrong with that, but thats the problem plenty of investors have. They are either arrogant ro refuse to evolve from their original framework and then spend years underperforming while telling themselves everyone else is crazy and destined to fail...

Is it just me or have posts begun getting cut up for ad placement? If so, Sanjeev...can we solve this problem the way everything else in the world gets solved? Those who dont want to see ads everywhere pay a few bucks to prevent this?

Either way you kind of have a problem. If you are quite wealthy or have a huge hoard of cash sitting around, your money is being devalued by the current printing extravaganza. People have been crying about housing bubbles in Canada for as long as I can remember. You willing to sit on cash for another decade? If not, and you are investing it, well, when/if the bubble pops the cash is probably not going to want to be pulled from your investments which will likely be depressed. In which case you will need financing. Except during blowups getting financing is a best a total bitch and at worst pretty damn hard. My 2c would be to do what I did. Settle on something in the suburbs about 45 minutes to 1 hour from the big city. Its definitely going to be cheaper. Not as inflated in price, and if you like the area and want to live there long term who cares? Buy something you know you can afford, dont reach. You can always renovate as well. Then down the line if things or life changes, you can operate from a position of strength.

Sold some MX. Paid down some margin. Started GILT. sold remainder MX. Go private at $29. $26 is good enough for me. How many stocks are you holding Greg? Seems like you have a bit in everything and baskets of SPACs and REITs. Right now probably between 50-60. Its segmented though. Top 6 ideas are close to 100% weighting(which includes about ~40% in BRK) and top 10 is about 115%. On top of that Ive got low 20%-ish allocation to pre deal spac but thats negligible in terms of capital at risk. Got a trading and tracking basket currently sitting around 25% which is lower than normal but Ive been trading a lot less this year since the setup I'm seeing is ripe and has a long runway. REITs(or RE related companies) are probably around 60-70% of my assets. Also got another high teens allocation to shorts/puts. Altogether it roughly works out to being fully margined BRK(a bet I found sound making at the 230s level), and slightly less than 80% invested otherwise one accounting for short/hedge positions. Numbers are roughly calculated without looking at a thing since last week so yes, I'm well margined, no Im not doing anything too insane, yes I like to be aggressive with conservative stuff and be a pussy with aggressive stuff....Cheers.

Sold some MX. Paid down some margin. Started GILT. sold remainder MX. Go private at $29. $26 is good enough for me.

The degree to which they've been hyping the shit out of these "new strains" and emphasizing words like "mutant" and phrases like "potentially deadly and contagious" is all one needs to see to know something fishy is up. Basically reads like a stock promotion type of deal. Press releases written by stock promoters getting paid to help the company insiders sell shares. "possibly evading new vaccines", "possibly more lethal", "possibly more contagious"....fuck off. They say "possibly" to lie without having repercussions. I woke up today and "potentially" a plane could crash into my house. Potentially my computer could blow up. Potentially a bear coming out of hibernation could walk into my house, sit down at the dining room table, and order my wife to make him waffles..... however none of those things are any more likely to occur today than they were yesterday, but when you take liberties with words and have no desire to be ethical or honest, you can deliberately create clicks by presenting things in specific ways.

I'd say it effects most people because folks have been told to stay locked in their homes. Folks have had their businesses shut down while still being required to pay property and business taxes. Folks have been fined for trying to work out at a gym. Folks have been given citations for walking alone on a beach. Folks have been told they arent allowed to travel or leave the state. Folks have been unable to buy basic food or groceries at various points. Folks have been forced to beg for stimulus money.... And personally in my case, Ive been in a state thats part of a region that has fucked things up so badly and financially slit its own wrists and keeps doubling down on this failure and now their solution is to further pick my pocket to pay for the things they claim they need to do in order to get out of the mess they and only they were so adamant about creating.

And as if that was signaling a top, BTC crashes. ~20% from the ATH, nearly 100% YTD, and more than 10x since lows 52 weeks ago....interesting definition of a crash.

To be fair though, I dont think there are many folks more guilty of undermining public confidence in a vaccine than the two folks currently holding the title President and VP, along with a lot of their friends and allies. At the end of the day, everyone needs to make an assessment for themselves and thats all there is to it. I never got a flu shot until I had kids. Certain things, much like trades or investments, set themselves up differently to everyone. I just dont see the merit in making ones decision on anything a public figurehead says, or even on the supposed "wellbeing of strangers"...is it fair to me my income gets ransacked because poor people cant get it together, or because my governor who I didnt vote for and dont support wants to push bogus programs I want nothing to do with? Maybe they should be more considerate too! Right? Nope, thats not how the world works. Take care of yourself and your loved ones. Do everything you can for them and everyone else, in one context or another, can fuck off or learn to do the same. I'll let this comment be my last here as I already feel like this is wading into politics and I dont really care all that much, like I stated earlier. I got the vaccine because it was important to the people who's opinions I value. And thats it for me. Every should have their own say.

Sold some Oct $7.5 puts on APTS, and picked up a few more shares. Small add to MSGE as well.

Everyone on my wife's side of the family is a nurse. So probably preferential treatment lol. My attitude was that I'll get it when its available and I dont really care too much when that actually is. Could be next year for all I care. Mother in law said they had an opening and booked me for the following week. Shrugged my shoulders and said "ok"...its more important to other people than it is to me but in terms of peace of mind, especially for others in the family.....it is what it is. I'd also caution anyone that they seemed to make a very big deal about "keeping the card"....the doctor indicated that doing so may be helpful for traveling in the future....

Interesting points from everyone. One really does need to wonder and be skeptical of much of the handling, especially the motive. For instance you had 25% crowd capacity at sporting events in FL/TX etc, back in December and January, meanwhile in NY they didnt allow ANYTHING until a week or two ago and even still, its only 10%....when calls for doom and gloom are made, and the makers of the calls are WRONG, you NEVER get a mea culpa or an apology....you just get the next iteration of the agenda driven story or some stupid aphorism like "better safe than sorry". Much like how Ive regularly, for most of my career heard people saying the "doing this or that" in the markets will "eventually blow you up"....except when it never does they never eat their words they just double down on an unprovable reiteration of their same academically inspired jargon...at some point you have to just say fuck em. Theyre the ones who have no clue what they are doing. Which for private persons/businesses, is OK...as capitalism weeds this shit out. For public officials who have control over peoples lives....its entirely NOT acceptable. Personally, Dr. Fauci was saying no masks at the height of the panic in March/April 2020 and now after being vaccinated he's wearing not one, but two masks. All I know is I dont want to be like THAT GUY.... I got the 1st shot a few weeks ago and am scheduled for the second one next week. I've done enough shit in my life that if a vaccine does me in....so be it.

Fidelity to launch a BTC ETF. Who's next?