Gregmal

In honor of the times, V for Vendetta. Classic.

Trying to get into some new shows I started watching Your Honor with Bryan Cranston. Big fan of some of his stuff and Showtime Ive found is top notch with premium series. It's horrible and sucks more than I could have imagined. Basically Death Sentence meets a low level crime drama with a lazy social justice message. Total letdown.

Interesting is that we have no problem accepting rolling out mail in voting ballots. You get a slip in the mail, bring it to your local polling station, cast your vote, and get your sticker. Meanwhile, for a vaccine, which should be the same exact process; IE here's your vaccine slip, bring it to the said location, exchange it for a shot and a stimulus check voucher....Nah, direct everyone to the outdated government websites that crash and lock people out when volume spikes 30% or more...then wonder why no one is getting vaccinated and places are throwing out vials because of the mishandling and lack of timely administration...total fucking idiots.

I agree, but dont get your hopes up. POTUS is obviously busy with other things, as is Congress. After all, they all got their shots already. Jokes on the average Joe, as it always is.

CDC now saying we could see a huge covid surge as a result fo the "riots". After nearly a year of hearing how "riots" were not believed to be causing any spread....what will they come up with next?

Someone should tell Cathy she needs to let the journalists and cameraman have "unprecedented access". One day there will be never before seen footage, and behind the scenes stories to be told via a remarkable, never before seen documentary. This is....The Last Dance.

I actually see this as one of the best short term, event driven trade setups out there right now. You have maybe 20-30% potential short term downside and 150%+ upside potential. If your risk tolerance is 100 bps(IE nothing), you can T up a rather meaningful position.

Yup. Bottom line is owning assets is better than not owning them. Many of the cash folks also seem to be worried about inflation too lol. Makes no sense. People always say shit like "price is what you pay..." or whatever and then refer to 1999 or 2008, but at this point many of them have been saying that, and been wrong for almost a decade, or put another way, 1/3 of the normal persons investing life cycle. I have over and over again found it prudent to be respectful of, but largely bet against "the exceptions to the rule" when it comes to investing because exceptions are rare and the closer we are to them the less likely they are to happen. You can hedge these exception to the rule risks quite easily and cheaply as well, further mitigating them. Its why 2011 Q3 was a gift(just using an example). Everyone thought it was GFC 2.0 and large scale defaults where just around the corner....they weren't. Because we just had that 2 years prior and everyone was prepared for it. Its why the fear of "the next wave" of covid never really materialized in the markets and kept people under invested... I say this as someone who is as bearish on some big parts of the market as Ive ever been, and have probably a 20% or so short exposure through various baskets and trades. But I also still have very reasonable long exposure. If you cant find anything to invest in for long period of time, you should just buy the index or ETF because the truth is that a reasonable market participant can almost always find something out there thats worth investing in. And yea, multi family REITs IMO are probably the ultimate cover all your bases, undervalued, will do well/get an adjustment multiple boost value play out there right now. Theyre a no brainer but people miss them because of false narratives and the fact that theyre also not going to be doing 50-100% in a year.

California has been the most abusive and restrictive and yet leads the way in terms of being a total disaster from top to bottom. At least Nancy can get her hair done and Mr. Newsome and pals can do their fundraisers. The 49ers however, can not even play in an empty stadium. Common folks...stay at home chumps!

Got some LWACU

Now it all makes sense! Both you fine fellas. Hahah cheers.

^ In that regard I think you just have to manage it. I set a hard accumulate limit under $10K and just stuck to that. Had a good long while to get the position. I thought there was ultra high probability that we retest and then break the old highs. Once enough air gets between you and then ground, you just want to constantly derisk. I have no intention to buy any dips. Just trim small and regularly as this flies. Who knows how wild or crazy the crash landing will be. SD is on point with his implied message that this is purely a traders vehicle. There is no intrinsic value, which is not to be confused with saying it has no utility. But its not like you have fundamental markers such as price to book or whatever with which you can implement a buy/sell strategy.

SD trading or Wabuffo talking about monetary policy....both are kind of like grad level university course poetry. You can see its beauty. You are captivated by its effortless luster, and ultimately leave appreciating it, but not really understanding it anyway.

I think HTB is just a designation for an elevated fee, currently I think ~2-3% although that floats. More important to keep an eye on available shares. Theres over 1M shares of ARKG at Fidelity and a couple mil at RBC. Haven't checked IBKR. Dont underestimate the brokerage industry's cleverness with disclosing fees. That HTB warning is often just the way they tell you they're hitting up your account for something.

Took another roughly 10% or so off CRSP, EDIT, BEAM, RPTX and paid down some margin plus added to ARKG short. Also tacked on a few more shares to TSLA short.

Theres your IPOE for the win. Next up from Chamath is F or something. Sold out of a few recently and the LSAQ train left the station, as far as pre announcement spacs go. CAPAU too did its couple % march towards warrant separation move too.

I think all opinions and offerings should be welcome but also all of them should be subject to ridicule and getting shit on. That keeps things honest. My 2c hasn't changed really. But taking a step back this investment was started in the early party of the decade under the Obama administration and there were a couple avenues, but it was largely a legal battle. Trump came in and it was OMG he/Mnuchin is gonna fix it, but the under appreciated aspect today vs 4 years ago is you have 4 years worth of legal time value now on your side. Theres good likelihood the journey on the legal front is nearing an end, and this ascribes no value to an executive order type of move. Its similar to the SPAC warrant which does have an expiration date, and if things dont roll your way its worth zero, but in any event, contrary to conventional wisdom, it should and usually is worth more the closer it gets to expiration.

Ive added about 20% across the board to FNMAS, FMCCL, FNMAH today. Albeit small allocation. But market neutral/event driven and both sentiment and expectations are pretty rotten right now. Yea, sometimes I just like to take the other side of a trade.

Im probably on a net basis, moderately below fully invested once you account for puts and shorts. More liquidity and powder than I've had in ages. Essentially long recovery/REITs and short the bubble stuff.

Swapped DD into BRK, added to ARKG short, bought more ARKK puts, sold LHSIF. Picked up a few more CLPR and MRG-UN. Shorted a bit more BYND as well.

Yup. we are entering our 2000-2005 moment, fellow value investors. Enjoy.

With all the people who apparently crushed the market in 2020, COBF should have no problem raising a few million.....

I do recall SharperDingaan's timely exit at $18k on the first run up. Been managing the position and already have several times the cost basis removed, so the dice continue to get rolled. Where it lands, no one(except maybe SharperDingaan) knows!

Guess who won GA? https://seekingalpha.com/news/3649177-bitcoin-declared-winner-in-georgia-election

Poo poo. The truth is that the holdup on vaccine rollout is that all the wealthy and connected folks are still on vacation and we're waiting for them to get back and get their shots. Once they do, then the normal folks can start getting it!