Gregmal

Don't feel like starting a separate thread, but nice release here. https://www.alicoinc.com/news/detail/1359/alico-inc-announces-strategic-actions-to-increase So again, not the most exciting setup, but to me its a great quasi cash alternative(or free-2% carry if you've got some balls and some margin tolerance). Similar to FRP Holdings setup. You've seen the stress tested downside last year. Now there's material changes to the upside, and a proven management team. Alico has quietly taken some very positive and pro shareholder steps. The targeted ~40M annual EBITDA in a few years makes this compelling and still gives you a lot of free call options. And yea, there's started to be interest in the land. Which IMO is definitely not the best located land in FL, but FL land nonetheless and the soil they are situation on is ideal for building w/ high sand content. If, as alluded to by management, land sales start coming in(some already under contract), you could get a massive rerating here. Regardless, should see continued balance sheet improvement, cash flow ramp, and dividend increases. Just my 2C. Feel free to short it as well.

You can either have a discretionary buyback, which is subject to blackout restrictions. IE 2 weeks before EOQ-a few days after subsequent ER. Stuff like that. Or you can have a 105b type which allows consistent repurchases within the guidelines of normal trading rules, IE nothing for first 15/30 last 15/30 of daily trading.

Any way you cut it, homebuilders will be very busy, for a very long time. There is no credible bear case for something like NVR, IMO.

added to ALCO

^I actually kind of had the opposite thought yesterday. You are correct that 25% is a big deal...but its also not crazy given the pull ISS and those shops have. Theres no shortage of lazy institutional money that just blindly follow their recommendations. Its also trendy so say you're fighting for those initiatives even though theyre stupid. Separately, I was marveling at how Buffett and Berkshire have basically been cool with every administration Ive been alive for. The guy is, to quote Stuart Scott from his 90s SportsCenter days, "As cool as the other side of the pillow". They have no diversity whatsoever, they're nepotistic, they basically said "fuck ESG" in a very high class way....but its all very polished and gets the job done and I expect that to continue. They are world class operators and that seems to be the overriding theme with everything they do. Its very reassuring.

Cant complain about anything Ive read so far. Hopefully there is a minimum quarterly repurchase allocation that ramps with discretion. If BRK can buy ~5%(or lets say$20B) of its outstanding shares per year minimum, this becomes a big time winner under almost any circumstance if you have a 5-10 year horizon. , My fear would be that at a certain price, they stop altogether. Which I am sure some folks embrace, but also is ruthlessly ignorant of the fact that people have been calling the market wildly overvalued for almost the entirety of the past decade. At the end of the day, nobody knows for sure what characteristics or variables will be the true drivers, and as a result, flexibility in the approach is probably the best way to go. Hoarding cash in the current environment is more dangerous than hoarding Berkshire shares.

Maybe we're just crackheads for info. Going from the compactness of an SEC filing, to what could be compared to a kids picture book in terms of consolidated content, leaves me antsy. I agree to on being respectful about the effort that was put in. But Im sure Sanjeev also values and appreciates the input as to what people liked better.

They loved it at X and now hate it at .15X....how many times have we seen this story before? I love Kuppy but how many times do we need to see these "follow the manager" things not work out?

If you've bought a home in the past half decade why wouldn't you be looking at a cash out refi right now?

Yea the new one takes some getting used to. My only issues, and what Ive heard from a lot of others, is its harder to stay on top of new posts with the layout. I really liked the 20 or so post list of most recent postings at the bottom on the old site. If that could be implemented it would be great. This site IMO ind far more mobile friendly though. Main thing though is seeing if, and then why folks liked the old site better and then seeing if its possible to replicate those things.

I realize Sanjeev put a lot of effort into this, so its appreciated. However theres a lot of folks who have indicated preference for the old format. Curious what the numbers would say.

Trimmed some BRKB, added to ARKG short, PTON puts, and picked up a few MSFT+APTS.

Personally Ive found it much easier, and also much more directly impactful to just be generous/considerate within the course of day to day life. You can find tons of worthy GoFundMe campaigns. You can do simple things like pay for the person behind you at the drive thru, you can tip 30%. Volunteering, especially if you believe time is money, is also a great direct way to contribute to the enrichment of the lives of others. If I sent money off to some third party run venture, I'm not quite sure what would ever come of it. However I can know for sure the people in the above examples feel good about it, and even if just temporary, it makes a positive difference for them.

Im as skeptical of money sucking WS types as any, and more often than not agree with you, but I do sense you are getting a little too into the weeds as far as Pabrai. If people want to pay him, thats there prerogative. Do you think a psychiatrist is worth $300 an hour? I call big time bullshit on that too. Basically psychic /palm reader level BS fortified in terms of marketing by a "degree" from an overpriced university.....but if people want to pay for that... by all means. Capitalism lets folks taker advantage of that. I have no problem there. That said, I do agree with you in regards to there being nothing special about value investors who did well when all value investors did well. I dont know if or how Pabrai fits into that, but a good investor adapts and evolves. Guys like Einhorn arent great investors because they refuse to adapt and their egos/pride are more important to them than making money. If that wasn't the case they wouldnt insist on fighting the tape for half a decade or more.

https://nypost.com/2021/04/27/charles-de-vaulxs-apparent-suicide-rattles-wall-street/ De Vaulx leaves behind a wife and two children. So I guess I'm alone in thinking this is only really sad because of what this leaves/burdens upon his wife and kids/loved ones? Otherwise its pretty selfish and pathetic IMO. Guy had everything and off's himself because his stupid financial firm shut down? I continue to be amazed at the WS/finance crowd and their MO that the only thing important in life is one's money/career. Both are shallow and miss the most important things in life.

Started some TRMT

Eh I don't pick my friends based on their investing performance, do you?

Everyone has an obligation to be responsible for themselves. If you have a talent, you are entitled to monetize it. If you have a need, it is in your interest to satisfy that need. Pabrai, like many others, is simply the bi product of a good salesman realizing that most folks are financially illiterate. Nothing more. Its really not that hard to do either. I find it incredible how easily impressed the common folk is by financial folks whom have "a lot" of money and some self aggrandizing story about how they got it.

Jesus Castanza. You're a jack of all traits. The ideal, pre-2000s male. A white collar blue collar guy. I wish I could do shit like that. I honestly wouldnt make it passed pulling permits though. I have no tolerance for dealing with all that shit and especially little tolerance for municipal clipboard people.

NVDA. Have come around to liking quite a bit the prospects of a long Z at 1%, long NVDA at 1%, and short NFLX at 1.5% trade.

^Yup! Lot of lessons to be learned. If nothing else though, when it comes to financial markets, dont be afraid to think for yourself and go against the crowd. Dont be scared of being on the unpopular side of the trade. Dont let hysteria influence you. And especially, dont just blindly say "Buffett thinks....." and follow suit. The truth is, some people, seem to refuse to learn or adapt. They'll just head into the next generational opportunity singing tunes like "an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure" and once again miss it. Even Buffett swiftly pivoted after his disastrous AGM showing and saw the greater picture mid summer. An ounce of prevention may be worth a pound of cure, but a pound of cure aint +56% on S&P in 12 months(or more if you got creative)....always certain!

Sorry to hear of your loss. I do actually recall, IIRC it was John Hjorth, probably back around this time a year ago, having significant concerns for India specifically. What puzzles me, is that considering how globally connected everything is, as far as information goes...how does a year pass and yet we still the level of pure chaos that is currently being seen in India? How dont we have adequate supplies? I am by no means an expert on India, but to think this has been around for over a year and the worst is still happening in places is bizarre. Brazil was another puzzling one although I think different factors were at work there. Conversely, we havent really heard all that much out of Asia anymore. Without getting into it too severely as I always feel Im treading on ice with respect to covid and Sanjeev's tolerance for politics, but is the issue with covid really the politics of it? Its seems(again not specific to red/blue) that many of the areas that have been outliers suffered from lack of flexibility in terms of adapting on the political front. In respect to the markets, I dont recall you being an obnoxious ass about it. Everyone is obviously entitled to their opinions. Some are more skilled in their ability to forecast than others, but there were a few folks here who went out of their way to viscously disparage, mock, and even attempt to bully people whom disagreed with them...and those are the people who happened to be hilariously wrong and quoted above. If you are going to behave like that, at the least, you better be right. There were lot of folks who underestimated the markets, but they were humble about it and generally cordial and didnt make total fools of themself. Others, not so much.

Just wanted to bump this on the one year anniversary of some of the greatest contrarian indicators of all time here of COBF. The genius authors of these can remain nameless however the March-June pages here were quite something! Third and fourth weeks of April last year there were folks making claims such as( some paraphrasing): "I hope you & your kind are active participants in the market for sure" April 26, 56% return had you listened! Better answer for him: "If you truly think the whole world is wrong and you are right, the futures market opens at 6 pm EST" March 15-basically the bottom "If you are as confident as you are that you are correct, the financial markets are providing you plentiful opportunities to profit handsomely. " Mid March....Yup, plentiful indeed. "President Cuomo"....this didnt age well! "I don't commit to numbers in the face of rapid compounding and wide uncertainty, but I do sell my stocks and go to cash when I sensed this disaster unfolding". Thats too bad On Michael Burry and Mr. Cuomo: "Well he went in big on Gamestop and Tailored Brands, so not surprising." "Galileo's investments in Gamestop and Tailored Brands need the Church to listen! Galileo may be suffering from an acute case of incentive caused bias (Even Newton wasn't immune to the whims of the South Sea Company)... But yes, what Pres Cuomo is already planning...a strategic reopening." "Presidential--with a capital 'P'. Somebody jelly of President Cuomo, wants to capture the political upside of Cuomo's stellar management". LMFAO! Ooops! "The market has provided ample opportunity for those who missed this in March to cash out with the S&P now where it was in October 2019. There should be no valid excuse for these people if they lose their shirts." Late April..sooo prescient "So Sam Zell, Buffett, and Icahn are cautious on the sidelines and on the other side you have folks like Bill Ackman. Take your pick..." Well...Ackman did 70%. Buffett barely broke even, Icahn sucked wind, and Zell...who cares? "and then they'll cry and talk about "who could have predicted this". Whelp....obviously some of us could have, but not all of us! S&P since then? One of the truly great, generational, perhaps even once in a lifetime buying opportunities... ~+56% over the next 12 months The cream eventually rises to the top and the turds get flushed down the toilet and go away. As they say, never in doubt! Nostradamus! Always certain! I hope you all were invested in the markets! If not, just remember, an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure! Just ask Taleb. Buffett and Icahn were both bearish. Only stooopid people buy stonks during a pandemic! Dumb aphorisms for the win! And yea, I 100% did flag these posts at the time to throw them in peoples faces down the road. When people run their mouths they deserve accountability. Cheers

Isnt this kind of how it starts? They have trouble getting staff, cant meet pent up demand, and as a result wages must go up.

Exited modest sized, long held, fully margined positions in V, DPZ, ARE. Good time to be bolstering liquidity, IMO.