Gregmal

NY will get worse, but I dont ever see it being less desirable than Chicago. I've shifted my exposure from the office stuff to residential/retail. Blue collar jobs will still be there, as will tourists.

That seems reasonable to me. A chance to cool down. I think Cardboard added value on the investment side, and it'd be a shame to lose him permanently. Obviously this place belongs to one person, and it isn't a democracy. So that is just a suggestion not a vote. Yup. At one of the first firms I was at, one of the BSDs used to routine say to the younger guys "you know who they listen to? The producers, not the bitches in the back office"...At least there, the back office actually provided some, albeit marginal value. By and large Ive found that the people who complain or report posts, such as Sanjeev alluded to, provided little, or in many cases, no value to the site themselves. I bring this up, because just within the past page on FFH, I can highlight Viking and SharperDinegaan as folks who I know I have quite different political views from, at least in some instances. They both bring significant value on the investment side. When I see posts of theirs that lean political, the last thing on my mind is crying like a baby. I respect them as individuals and they are entitled to their views as I am mine. Even if I was appalled by the politics, without question the investment value outweighs whatever nonsense one could just easily ignore. It takes a certain mentality to be successful investing. These folks have it. I would bet bigger money most of the complainers dont. I have never in my life blocked anyone or reported a post, and I would be shocked in either of the above mentioned individuals had either. My point, is to reiterate what I asked in the prior post. What is you goal for this website Sanjeev? Is it to be more like Facebook, or VIC? Because if its investment related I'd say with confidence that the 5% of Cardboard posts relating to investments significantly outweighs what many other folks and complainers bring in their entirety, in terms of value. No one is forced to be here, but I do think there should be more skew towards being like VIC where others can watch but if you dont produce you dont have any say. Cheers. EDIT: just for honesty's sake, I will clarify that one time I reported someones post, but only out of pettiness and spite since they did it to me first.

Next legs of the recovery money flow. CLPR and IMAX(LEAPs).

It depends what markets people are referring to. The broader market? Real companies? IE S&P components? Sure. But there's plenty of signs that some of the other stuff is beginning to crack and its been occurring for weeks. For instance, there is an inevitable shift in supply demand that occurs. Over time, companies realize an outsized demand, and something as simple as an ATM will soon tap that out. A lot of the more speculative names Ive been following dont even do secondaries anymore. BEAM did an offering at 23.50 a few months ago and the stock then went to $90. So now you have companies like that just signing brokerage arrangements that are going to flood the market as long as prices stay where they are. This is just one example/data point of many. HTZ didnt stay at $5 for similar reasons. Just like AMC is inevitably going to 0 as well.

I'm sure I am up there as well. I even from time to time get DMs from people asking about stocks or wanting to shoot the shit and then I go to respond and it says they have me blocked! I dont think rubbing people the wrong way should be held against anyone. Its the internet and we(try) to deal with investing/financial markets, which is like the UFC for smart people. Folks need to toughen/lighten up. Nothing should be personal. People who complain about what others are posting are even more of a problem than those that post. It is a message board after all, no?

Jeez Sanjeev. Thats harsh. Especially when Cardboard does contribute and engage on the investment side of things. Particularly even here on FRFH in a way thats at least presenting differing viewpoints. There's so many others who dwell here that dont do shit or bring even pee wee level investment insight to the table. You've generally been fair, but occasionally, IMO, things like this go overboard. You've said for the better part of 4 months now that the new website will be up and no politics. And that until then, this site is what it is. The covid thread was allowed to be a political thread for the entire year. Getting into macro stuff begs for political pondering; I dont think thats unreasonable. Of all the shit Ive heard from Cardboard, I think banning him for this is quite petty. Sometimes its Jeckyll & and Hyde with you in regards to the bans....I say this wondering if this will be my last post as well, even though I am certainly not crossing any lines with what I am currently writing. If you dont think Prem's bearishness up to 2016 and then bullishness(under Trump) wasnt somewhat politically inspired....then I dont think you're assessing the entire picture in a thorough manner. Even if it wasnt, it certainly isnt outside the realm of consideration to try and account for that going forward. Will Prem be bearish under a regime change with the rumored objectives? IE increase taxes and greater social programs plus widespread debt relief? If you invest in fixed income this is very relevant. FFH invests in fixed income. But its your site, you do what you want. I just question whats the purpose? Investing? Or something else? I can probably list a dozen people ahead of Cardboard on the "they offer nothing" if the goal is to build an investing community....but maybe Im missing something.

ARKK, what else? My dad was asking me about a Vanguard Discretionary Consumer ETF. I looked at the thing, and 31% of the fund was Amazon and Tesla. He said it had returned 45% for the last 3 or 4 years. I told him congratulations on riding Tesla, but sell the POS immediately. All the Arks. SPAK is juicy as well. To me, its almost eerily similar to the mortgage bond stuff in a poetic sort of way. People are demanding something and the banks/firms, who give zero shits about quality, are building them these mega steaming piles of poo-poo. As a short seller, I hate the risk of single stock shorts, although I will do it anyway from time to time. So having a diversified poo-poo basket is just awesome.

Sold this, rolled profit into MSGE Feb $100 calls. Sold all but 15 contracts here. Who says you can be north of 75% of open interest on an illiquid OTM option? Also bought some mid January VIX calls, shorted some ARKK, added small amount of AMT and a few NATH. Covered the ARKK and rolled profit into ARKK puts. Bought a few CLPR with some MSGE call proceeds. Gotta keep the NY recovery theme going. Just slide further down the ladder. Also added to ZM short.

Yup. Its been topping out in slow-motion. I wouldn't fuck with the FANGs. I have a small AAPL put position and own GOOG and MSFT. The stuff you want to be hedging with and/or outright shorting is all conveniently placed inside a few of the worlds greatest ETFs.

Isn't this a good thing? Share price down significantly and business is performing well? Are you confusing share price with business performance? Seems like an opportunity more than anything if you're a real investor and not a trader. Note: No position and don't know the business in detail, just making an observation. Not directed at you personally, but this is the type of Buffett/value investor rhetoric that leads otherwise rational investors into the abyss. The market is and has been on fire for a decade. If your investment is working, you are making money. The only * would perhaps be some kind of smaller cap, special situation type of investment. Fairfax is not "under the radar" and its certainly not buried under a rock somewhere that most investors dont know of....Its like looking at WFC and being like "oh price is what you pay and value is what you get", when realistically I just look at JPM or BAC and go "makes sense"...

If you can buy a dollar for 60 cents in perpetuity....is it really a dollar you're buying?

Sold this, rolled profit into MSGE Feb $100 calls. Sold all but 15 contracts here. Who says you can be north of 75% of open interest on an illiquid OTM option? Also bought some mid January VIX calls, shorted some ARKK, added small amount of AMT and a few NATH.

It is just my 2c, but from experience, if you are going to play something, play it. Dont half ass it. IE Buying BRK in late 2018/early 2019 during crash bc I liked financials and AAPL(I did this). MSTR is a cute idea and all, but if you want crypto/BTC, just buy BTC.

Absolutely hilarious.

This is amazing and certainly worthy of utilizing a gift from the Donald/congress which is the 2021-22 tax deduction for "triple martini" lunches!

I consider paying $12 for a four-pack of Founders Breakfast Stout a splurge! With my taste buds, I think I would not appreciate the Royal Salute 21. Have you ever tried Pappy Van Winkle? Haha no I have not and a quick google was kind of awe inspiring. My typical hard stuff is in the $30-50 a bottle range. Once in a while the $200-300/bottle but above that is where I get to the point where I rather buy a case of good $50 a bottle type stuff than just one bottle of legendary booze. I saw a 72 year McCallans at the liquor store for $140k and first thought was "what happens if the guy stocking the shelves drops it?". I do like the Founders as well. A few of the DuClaw varieties I liked when I tried them a couple years ago as well. The oatmeal/peanut butter/ chocolate/espresso ones I find are great when they are done right.

Just wait til the poor people get their $2000 checks! BTC to $40k! That guy Trump who is only out for himself seems to be fighting pretty hard for those losers to get their checks. Even though they hate him. Doesnt make a whole lot of sense. I mean, its not like they can spend them at Mar a Lago.

Royal Salute 21. Easily exceeded relatively high expectations.

Merry Christmas all.

Yea I think the opportunity(defined as a reasonable or better skew in terms of risk/reward) is almost gone. Its harder to find for sure. This stuff doesnt last forever so when you see it you need to act. Here it was/is rather no brainer. Sub 5% downside, cut and dry. Many cases 1% or less. All good things do come to an end.

You missed SQFT? j/k

Reminiscences of a Stock Operator is probably one of the best stock market related books Ive ever read. Livermore was quite the case study. Fascinating fellow.

Yea there's definitely a bit of predictability especially in terms of pattern recognition to some of these things. One of the main reasons I like the spac trades. Almost every time it goes like this. 1) Run to big name/promoting sponsor (IE Chamath types), 2) deal announcement 3) transfer period between share owners from institutions to retail 4) trend on Twitter/stocktwits 5) to the moon. If you have a bit of a trading sense, its exciting and fun, but its also important to stay near the exit for when the music inevitably stops. I wasnt involved in the market during the tech bubble. But having studied it and just history in general, I never understood the "bubble" comparisons we've been hearing about non stop from many folks over the past decade. However over the past couple months, its basically everything they'd teach in a textbook on the subject. All the red flags are there. They are getting bigger and bigger. Rule in life in to never be the first or last guy at the party... EDIT: grabbed a few BABA today

The life science/biotech SPAC I like simply because thats a favorably viewed sector. LSACU was/is a double before deal close. The thesis is rather simple in that from 10.5/6 you will likely see some bounces up/down on just normal trading activity and on a deal announcement you'll almost certainly see at least $11/12. You dont need home runs here or even great deals. Just volatility and a deal spike. Which is close to guaranteed in this environment. I was talking with someone earlier about the Social Capital spacs, and the 15-20% premiums on those. And realistically, while I'm not a fan, you still kind of have favorable setups because the behavior of the masses has become predictable. Especially if you are a smaller investor, IE transact in sub 5,000 share lots, you'll almost certainly have an exit opportunity, especially if you are quick after hours upon announcement.

I dont actually think that one is too bad. It seems predominantly pre deal announcement, which is low risk. Much different than SPAK. Its basically what I do on my own, but I suppose not everyone has the time to follow all these damn things. And yea, 10.3-4 is the new 10.05-10.10. Got IIIIU IPO last week and already at 10.4. LSAQ, FLACU, are currently two I like. FSRVU just got a 40% bump on deal announcement so I've cut that one down a bit.