Gregmal

The thing is, businesses may be a reflection to some degree of their future earnings. But assets are not necessarily. What was the PE or FCF yield on the Dallas Cowboys when Jerry Jones bought them, or the NY Yankees when Steinbrenner picked them up? How does that compare to today? To me, it is much easier to forecast safety in the long term, of an asset, vs durability, let alone ability to appreciate, of a business. There will only be one NY Yankees 15-20 years from now. There will be more billionaires. Meanwhile someone can come along and displace Costco, or the government can break up Google or Berkshire. So far, my only level of comfort in predicting long term oriented events, would be with things they cant replace.

My understanding is that the vaccine is not yet know to prevent transmission, rather it simply throws one into the asymptomatic category. I do not know the "science" though. My oldest younger brother, who is an MD(not Jill Biden type PHD, but real white coat wearing PHD) says get the vaccine and figure it out later. My youngest brother who is a grad student in one of the most prestigious Ivy League biomedical/genetic engineering programs in the country, says he'll take care of it the traditional way; at a bar with his friends... to each their own.

Youre also going to need to be vaccinated to go anywhere or to do anything. No, the US government will not "mandate" a passport apparently. But these scumbags will refuse to pass legislation protecting businesses from ambulance chasing lawyers. So that strong arms the private sector into defense mode, which, by default, will be to mandate proof of vaccination. Nice little work around there, but its the same thing and thats where its going. I mean shit, look at Cornell, Rutgers, etc....No one is allowed to take classes without a vaccine starting in Fall '21....

I actually never owned AIRC and generally speaking think poorly of everyone involved; from the crooks running the company to loudmouth Litt. AIV just kind of jumped off the screen though as a classic orphan spin setup. Checked every box down to getting booted from the index and trading under $5. Mid December MF coastal had decent clarity. So it wasnt like I'd be buying a business, just assets that were stupid cheap after everything else had just rallied. So I bought the stub post spin. Turned out releasing the financials and maybe some insider buying ended up being the catalyst that got things done. But it basically played out exactly as one would draw it up. If you're looking for an investment theres better assets and better managers out there than anything in the AIV/AIRC complex.

Hmmmmmm. So you basically would need to show a photo ID to eat or travel.... I'm expecting all major corporations to boycott this nonsense. Otherwise, was debating whether or not to post this. But whatever. Got my 2nd shot last Friday. Around 12 hours after went from normal, to shaky, to 103.7 fever at the peak. Lasted for about 6 hours. Felt less than stellar, but OK the next day, and after 36 hours from getting the shot was back out on my boat fishing at midnight with my friends Bud Light and Marlboro. Strangely, I asked a few friends who got both shots if they had anything similar? They said yeah, just to varying effects...thanks for the heads up dickheads! Although also interesting is that the younger people I knew definitely had side effects at a much greater rate than the 15% or so given to everyone. The older people, seemed to have side effects that were much more moderate. Who knows.

BABA is the new Verizon it seems.

^^Yup. I generally like to go anywhere from a week to maybe a month or so out, and 15-20% or so out of the money, at least on things I wouldnt mind being put, but yea. Selling puts like that is just playing dealer at the casino. Everyone I know was going crazy trying to figure out how to short or buy puts on GME the past 3 months. Answer was simple. Just sell puts. All day. Money in the bank. I remember getting like $5 per share for some April $20s back in early February. $4 for March $15 puts. Got 45c for some July $4 puts. 10c on the $1 puts. It was beautiful. Best part is when the stock went from $340 to $50 and the puts still lost 50%+ of their value.

Cleared remainder of AIV.

Immerse yourself in the markets you want to learn about. Track whats for sale, what sold, etc. Call brokers and shoot the shit. Read the reports put together by the big guys. Learn what drives pricing; its different for each area but common threads exist. Stuff like the below attachment is easily available. CWRetail.pdf

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3678908-office-reit-stocks-lag-broader-market-gains-as-office-occupancy-stays-low Is retail vs office still a debate? Dont get me wrong, premier trophy properties are still gold, especially in the era of Project Zimbabwe. But as an asset class or lets say for instance, if you are the owner of a large pool of these...its hard to imagine meaningful improvement over the short to mid term. With tax increases looming, companies have further incentive to squeeze savings. How does it play out? If you have a current lease everyone will at some point head back to the cubicles and corner offices. But there's definitely going to be serious discussions when renewal comes up; at least much more so than there was in 2019. The occupancy rates as it stands arent great, but are also misleading because of supply coming to market and additionally the nature of an office leases(IE long term, so really the only people who's shift has been reflected are folks who's leases expired in 2020 or 2021). Is there a catalyst or angle to be a hardcore office bull right now other than relative value? I am by no means in the short camp, for the simple reason that March 2020+ threw things so out of whack that you could buy things with terrible issues and still make money, but as things in RE-world continue normalizing, eventually the fundamental issues will become the valuation driver. So when "not all going BK" gets crossed of the list of catalysts, and it shifts more over to "expanding sq/ft and occupancy"...whats this going to look like?

Listed by Barrons as one of the top infrastructure plays poised to benefit from Joseph's spending bonanza. Up nearly 80% inside of 8 months. Think its still got room to run. More Gregmalpha.

MSGS, HTL, MSFT Would probably expect future returns to be similar to past returns.

Today's rip seemed like a fine opportunity to tack on some more shares to the ARK shorts, so I seized the opportunity. Also added a few shares of MSGE.

Totally would support this. Havent watched TV or subscribed to any "news" publications in ages. The primary reason being is that no one reports what happened anymore. Its always a skew or opinion wrapped up with the only aspect of fact being the proverbial tip of the iceberg you see. Everything is taken out of context, and I guess its deliberate. Take the Georgia election for instance. How many different outrageous and deceptive headlines have we seen? Whereas the truth is basically this... https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/1377439829001125891 Meanwhile, I havent really seen any updates on the "kids in cages" fiasco in quite some time...even though I hear theres some pretty big problems at the border currently. And god forbid the stories require an "expert" or outside opinion. Seems people seek out the "experts" whom happen to "find" the result theyre looking for.

What am I buying today? Took my 4 year old to get T-ball stuff. Holy fuck did it make me feel old. Glove, helmet, hat...$150. 20 years ago I busted my ass for 15 hours doing landscaping work to pay for a Nokona glove I needed for HS ball. Now before you can even hit the kids up with chores you're spending nearly $200 for stuff they'll grow out of in 12 months..and the adult gloves are pushing $300 for run of the mill quality stuff...crazy. Dont even want to think about hockey equipment for the fall. Hopefully no one follows me into that trade!

Dont think it depends on anything other than identifying which cycle your are projecting and where the tentacles of the octopus reach. Banks have undergone a fundamental purge over the past decade and are now integral to the implementation of basically anything that is likely to unfold. That said, Im not trying too hard to be cute on this. I did start BAC the other day but its just another angle where BRK wins.

Trimmed some AIV

IDK but it isnt politics to me when I go out to eat or buy groceries and you see crazy hermits scampering around, snapping at people about "your mask needs to be up higher, be considerate"....when its like "yo retard, your state is tops in the country in covid cases currently with 50% more cases than states with 3x the population and 100% business capacities AND NO MASKS...and oh yea, your death rate is still the highest too....but yea, follow the [s]slogans[/s] science. Nice snout cover by the way!". And thats not even touching on how dismal many of the vaccine rollouts have been! Getting everyone vaccinated will force everyone back to normal. I mean I was looking to book a summer/fall trip to Hawk Lake in Ontario the other day and the guy basically said, "we have no visibility into when or what needs to happen in order for the border to open up again...just keep checking in"...pure lunacy! The subject might be uncomfortable, and it should be. But I dont see what people think theyre solving by getting mad at me???? People should be slamming at the doors of all their local officials creating a massive shitstorm and demanding that EVERY SINGLE FUCKING PERSON who wants a vaccine gets one ASAP. Enough of the current status quo!

What is the point of this comment? It comes off as a cowardly, not so thinly veiled plea "Sanjeev censor/ban them!".... The thread is about the vaccine.... if you dont like it, dont read it,. Theres red states with policies that make sense, and policies that dont, same with the blue states. Its not politics...its real life effecting everyone. Its real and part of what many people myself included, weigh when looking at getting the vaccine. You see where the puck is going(vaccine passports) and realize theres a path of least resistance whether you like it or not.... I posted whether I was getting the vaccine? Did you? I posted how I got the vaccine? Did you? I posted my thought process on the vaccine. Did you? I posted what I thought was relevant to large scale vaccination and the resulting return to normal..did you? I am not so much referring to you specifically, but I think Ive had reasonably productive dialogue with Sanjeev recently and dont think Ive encroached on anything I agreed not to. I dont attack or call people names. I do plenty of other things that are viewed as positives for the board. But Im still dumbfounded at the sheer number of lurking cowards here...who dont post investment ideas, never really provide anything...but like a pack of piranhas race to comments posted by people like myself and cubs or folks they dont agree with...begging and cowardly lobbying for their removal and the bans of people they dont agree with. Man up people....

Maybe people are just finally coming to their senses. Big Daddy Buff has told us $240 or lower and we're getting 6-10% a year run rate on the buybacks, maybe more. Inflation protected- check. Downturn protected - cough, laugh, check. Real, relevant, systematically important businesses trading at stupid cheap valuations? check. What more do folks want? A rerating here is inevitable. There arent many scenarios where 2% 10 yr treasuries, 30x on the S&P, and a Berkshire at its current price make sense enough to last very long.

I think it just points to the continued efforts by the politicians to bully people through fear, into getting vaccinated(which perplexes me since the vaccine is something benevolent). There s a huge swath of people who believe them still; who dont know any better. Its equivalent to circus animals. "Master, can we go to the gym? Master when can our kids go back to the classroom? Master can we dine out? Master can we have baseball this summer"..."No, not yet. Only at 10%. Only if you're good!"....I mean this woman even wore goth type makeup presumably for effect. And while people often get worked up over calling this a hoax, what is a true hoax is what the establishment is peddling. Literally all you need to do to see its a giant hoax is go on vacation. But they tell you "dont leave the state"..."you need to quarantine"....and feed you things like "we're saving lives!" and "flatten the curve" which..who is going to argue with that? But as we continue to see...its all unnecessary because "the bad guys" as some of them continue to refer to states that dont buy into their game...have better numbers than "the good guys"...To this day, the WORST states, are the ones who took the most ridiculous measures and attempted to turn their residents into subservient puppets. And if we had any doubt its nonsensical bs, the irrefutable proof is in the pudding because none of the wealthy or important people follow these stupid rules!! What does this have to do with getting vaccinated? Well one, I think everyone deserves a real return to normal. Its embarrassing and also sad a lot of the country is still of the mindset of "master, when can we return to normal" to which the reply is "when WE determine its safe"- to which there is absolutely no real metric they are presenting to crystalize when that is, other than simply everyone getting the vaccine....when the truth is that people can already return to normal and if you really want normal you can just travel a few hours south to escape the bullshit. Two, I think it further emphasizes the importance of people thinking for themselves and making their own decisions. You can not trust these politicians, period. The more you resist them the more it seems they ramp up the crap. Covid will basically be done by the summer or at worst the fall. It will definitely help if as many people as possible get the vaccines. But if they choose not to, well, this is still America and thats their right. The question is what the politicians will do next to keep people calling them "master" and being subservient. The passport thing I can see becoming a big power issue. To me, Ive got it, so I'm good. But dont really think its fair to use that against others. So if this skews too hard one way or another for folks...oh well. But the truth is that all these things weigh into a decision making process. For me, it was an easy decision, much similar to ones I use when investing, and with my life/wife....its more important to them than it is to me....so I will just take the path of least resistance to save myself future headaches(in this case, the probability of which I assessed as being low)...hopefully everyone does what they need to and we all have gigantic 4th of July bashes...not just the ones who choose not to ask "master" for permission to gather.

I dont know if I'd expect a total repeat of 2000 and expect a precipitous crash, theres probably too much liquidity for that. But I think its clear the top is in for certain popular themes....do folks really see ARKG getting back to $115 any time soon. Personally I would think you just see a gradual bear market type decline. Rallies get faded, new lows put in. Similar to what we've already been seeing. There's also, a large segment of stuff that I wouldnt expect to be effected at all, IE BRK and the like. Its a good market for the fundamental investor IMO.

Its just an educated guess so take it with a grain of salt. The retail leases vary. Anchors generally have 10+ with 5 year options. Smaller spaces can be anything from 12-60 months, sometimes even 10 years. I think the bigger thing is the behind the scenes stuff. You can start working on this stuff but ultimately a lot has to happen to get anything memorialized and only once things are memorialized will a transaction occur and only after that you would begin to see progress on a new development. A shopping center and small MPC by me took almost a decade to get together just in terms of rezoning and entitlements and all those fun paperwork based approvals. Funny side story is that there was a bit of a tussle when one of the dudes who signed a 15 year lease on one of the outparcels was told the town wasnt issuing any more liquor licenses....whoops. Lotta planning and palm greasing in some of these places. If I again had to guess Id say the small strip center is worth more dead than alive and the last thing the owner wants to do is restart the clock by signing a couple crummy leases.

A lot of times that means theyre looking to run off the tenants and then reposition it or do something completely new. Seen stuff like this with shopping centers which then get converted to urgent care/medical centers or senior living/student housing type setups.  Just a guess though. Also, many times its not the owner doing the leg work but a developer who will either be a partner in the venture or take control via a purchase option generally contingent on getting the approvals.