Gregmal

Listed by Barrons as one of the top infrastructure plays poised to benefit from Joseph's spending bonanza. Up nearly 80% inside of 8 months. Think its still got room to run. More Gregmalpha.

MSGS, HTL, MSFT Would probably expect future returns to be similar to past returns.

Today's rip seemed like a fine opportunity to tack on some more shares to the ARK shorts, so I seized the opportunity. Also added a few shares of MSGE.

Totally would support this. Havent watched TV or subscribed to any "news" publications in ages. The primary reason being is that no one reports what happened anymore. Its always a skew or opinion wrapped up with the only aspect of fact being the proverbial tip of the iceberg you see. Everything is taken out of context, and I guess its deliberate. Take the Georgia election for instance. How many different outrageous and deceptive headlines have we seen? Whereas the truth is basically this... https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/1377439829001125891 Meanwhile, I havent really seen any updates on the "kids in cages" fiasco in quite some time...even though I hear theres some pretty big problems at the border currently. And god forbid the stories require an "expert" or outside opinion. Seems people seek out the "experts" whom happen to "find" the result theyre looking for.

What am I buying today? Took my 4 year old to get T-ball stuff. Holy fuck did it make me feel old. Glove, helmet, hat...$150. 20 years ago I busted my ass for 15 hours doing landscaping work to pay for a Nokona glove I needed for HS ball. Now before you can even hit the kids up with chores you're spending nearly $200 for stuff they'll grow out of in 12 months..and the adult gloves are pushing $300 for run of the mill quality stuff...crazy. Dont even want to think about hockey equipment for the fall. Hopefully no one follows me into that trade!

Dont think it depends on anything other than identifying which cycle your are projecting and where the tentacles of the octopus reach. Banks have undergone a fundamental purge over the past decade and are now integral to the implementation of basically anything that is likely to unfold. That said, Im not trying too hard to be cute on this. I did start BAC the other day but its just another angle where BRK wins.

Trimmed some AIV

IDK but it isnt politics to me when I go out to eat or buy groceries and you see crazy hermits scampering around, snapping at people about "your mask needs to be up higher, be considerate"....when its like "yo retard, your state is tops in the country in covid cases currently with 50% more cases than states with 3x the population and 100% business capacities AND NO MASKS...and oh yea, your death rate is still the highest too....but yea, follow the [s]slogans[/s] science. Nice snout cover by the way!". And thats not even touching on how dismal many of the vaccine rollouts have been! Getting everyone vaccinated will force everyone back to normal. I mean I was looking to book a summer/fall trip to Hawk Lake in Ontario the other day and the guy basically said, "we have no visibility into when or what needs to happen in order for the border to open up again...just keep checking in"...pure lunacy! The subject might be uncomfortable, and it should be. But I dont see what people think theyre solving by getting mad at me???? People should be slamming at the doors of all their local officials creating a massive shitstorm and demanding that EVERY SINGLE FUCKING PERSON who wants a vaccine gets one ASAP. Enough of the current status quo!

What is the point of this comment? It comes off as a cowardly, not so thinly veiled plea "Sanjeev censor/ban them!".... The thread is about the vaccine.... if you dont like it, dont read it,. Theres red states with policies that make sense, and policies that dont, same with the blue states. Its not politics...its real life effecting everyone. Its real and part of what many people myself included, weigh when looking at getting the vaccine. You see where the puck is going(vaccine passports) and realize theres a path of least resistance whether you like it or not.... I posted whether I was getting the vaccine? Did you? I posted how I got the vaccine? Did you? I posted my thought process on the vaccine. Did you? I posted what I thought was relevant to large scale vaccination and the resulting return to normal..did you? I am not so much referring to you specifically, but I think Ive had reasonably productive dialogue with Sanjeev recently and dont think Ive encroached on anything I agreed not to. I dont attack or call people names. I do plenty of other things that are viewed as positives for the board. But Im still dumbfounded at the sheer number of lurking cowards here...who dont post investment ideas, never really provide anything...but like a pack of piranhas race to comments posted by people like myself and cubs or folks they dont agree with...begging and cowardly lobbying for their removal and the bans of people they dont agree with. Man up people....

Maybe people are just finally coming to their senses. Big Daddy Buff has told us $240 or lower and we're getting 6-10% a year run rate on the buybacks, maybe more. Inflation protected- check. Downturn protected - cough, laugh, check. Real, relevant, systematically important businesses trading at stupid cheap valuations? check. What more do folks want? A rerating here is inevitable. There arent many scenarios where 2% 10 yr treasuries, 30x on the S&P, and a Berkshire at its current price make sense enough to last very long.

I think it just points to the continued efforts by the politicians to bully people through fear, into getting vaccinated(which perplexes me since the vaccine is something benevolent). There s a huge swath of people who believe them still; who dont know any better. Its equivalent to circus animals. "Master, can we go to the gym? Master when can our kids go back to the classroom? Master can we dine out? Master can we have baseball this summer"..."No, not yet. Only at 10%. Only if you're good!"....I mean this woman even wore goth type makeup presumably for effect. And while people often get worked up over calling this a hoax, what is a true hoax is what the establishment is peddling. Literally all you need to do to see its a giant hoax is go on vacation. But they tell you "dont leave the state"..."you need to quarantine"....and feed you things like "we're saving lives!" and "flatten the curve" which..who is going to argue with that? But as we continue to see...its all unnecessary because "the bad guys" as some of them continue to refer to states that dont buy into their game...have better numbers than "the good guys"...To this day, the WORST states, are the ones who took the most ridiculous measures and attempted to turn their residents into subservient puppets. And if we had any doubt its nonsensical bs, the irrefutable proof is in the pudding because none of the wealthy or important people follow these stupid rules!! What does this have to do with getting vaccinated? Well one, I think everyone deserves a real return to normal. Its embarrassing and also sad a lot of the country is still of the mindset of "master, when can we return to normal" to which the reply is "when WE determine its safe"- to which there is absolutely no real metric they are presenting to crystalize when that is, other than simply everyone getting the vaccine....when the truth is that people can already return to normal and if you really want normal you can just travel a few hours south to escape the bullshit. Two, I think it further emphasizes the importance of people thinking for themselves and making their own decisions. You can not trust these politicians, period. The more you resist them the more it seems they ramp up the crap. Covid will basically be done by the summer or at worst the fall. It will definitely help if as many people as possible get the vaccines. But if they choose not to, well, this is still America and thats their right. The question is what the politicians will do next to keep people calling them "master" and being subservient. The passport thing I can see becoming a big power issue. To me, Ive got it, so I'm good. But dont really think its fair to use that against others. So if this skews too hard one way or another for folks...oh well. But the truth is that all these things weigh into a decision making process. For me, it was an easy decision, much similar to ones I use when investing, and with my life/wife....its more important to them than it is to me....so I will just take the path of least resistance to save myself future headaches(in this case, the probability of which I assessed as being low)...hopefully everyone does what they need to and we all have gigantic 4th of July bashes...not just the ones who choose not to ask "master" for permission to gather.

I dont know if I'd expect a total repeat of 2000 and expect a precipitous crash, theres probably too much liquidity for that. But I think its clear the top is in for certain popular themes....do folks really see ARKG getting back to $115 any time soon. Personally I would think you just see a gradual bear market type decline. Rallies get faded, new lows put in. Similar to what we've already been seeing. There's also, a large segment of stuff that I wouldnt expect to be effected at all, IE BRK and the like. Its a good market for the fundamental investor IMO.

Its just an educated guess so take it with a grain of salt. The retail leases vary. Anchors generally have 10+ with 5 year options. Smaller spaces can be anything from 12-60 months, sometimes even 10 years. I think the bigger thing is the behind the scenes stuff. You can start working on this stuff but ultimately a lot has to happen to get anything memorialized and only once things are memorialized will a transaction occur and only after that you would begin to see progress on a new development. A shopping center and small MPC by me took almost a decade to get together just in terms of rezoning and entitlements and all those fun paperwork based approvals. Funny side story is that there was a bit of a tussle when one of the dudes who signed a 15 year lease on one of the outparcels was told the town wasnt issuing any more liquor licenses....whoops. Lotta planning and palm greasing in some of these places. If I again had to guess Id say the small strip center is worth more dead than alive and the last thing the owner wants to do is restart the clock by signing a couple crummy leases.

A lot of times that means theyre looking to run off the tenants and then reposition it or do something completely new. Seen stuff like this with shopping centers which then get converted to urgent care/medical centers or senior living/student housing type setups.  Just a guess though. Also, many times its not the owner doing the leg work but a developer who will either be a partner in the venture or take control via a purchase option generally contingent on getting the approvals.

I doubt these are isolated at all. Perhaps even this is the beginning of the pendulum swing back to normal as we've had a decade long run of increasing leverage to the point where nobody thinks there is risk anymore and the short interest vs market basically non existent. Saw a neat chart the other week comparing levels of short interest and currently there is nothing even remotely comparable to the short capitulation we ve been seeing outside of the period just prior to the tech bubble bursting. I mean we've seen all this shit unfold in basically 2 months...and many of these WS chumps run the same books and utilize the same strategies....one falls they are feel ripples. Theres some talk out there that the GME saga had a role in how this played out. The volatility is great though. Bring it on.

I think taking money out of your primary home for anything other than a sure thing is probably a bad idea. Crypto is far from a sure thing and even if it were there's characteristics of it that are far from predictable. With equities it would of course depend on what you're looking at. Generally speaking though, I think your idea makes sense for the semi adventurous person with a reasonable risk tolerance.

Took a starter here today as well. First time owning it since probably 2017 or so. Setup looks nice.

https://nypost.com/2021/03/29/cdc-director-dr-rochelle-walensky-warns-of-impending-doom/ LOLzzzz. More theatre from the fear mongering bureaucrats...."hold on a little longer!" ha, no! how about STFU. Get my 2nd shot Friday. Only doing it once. If I start hearing about how we need shots every year for the "mutant" variants, I'll probably have to put my foot down.

No, no. Im mainly short SPAK which is predominantly post deal close. Look at the holdings there! Such a beautiful basket of poopoo. Shorting pre deal is dumb because whats you're downside...5-10%, maybe in best case scenario? I still think pre deal spacs are somewhat interesting, especially on a case by case basis. Pre deal, pre announcement names you can once again pick up units pretty universally below 10.2 and a lot sub $10. Post deal announcement but pre close is actually probably one of the better ways to play market volatility right now, at least that I can think of. If you can snag something near $10 that was trading mid teens pre blow up and then use  the redemption deadline as your backstop you're probably going to do ok trading it. I wouldnt touch anything post deal close with a 10 ft pole though. Right now many are breaking $10 and then everything that works for them pre close works against them post close. Edit: I'd also add....guess what else is looking pretty good right now as a store of value, especially in the face of big banks once again reminding everyone that you never quite know whats lurking on the books?

Melvin and the #metoo NYC funds and their brilliant short positions, Achegos---->Nomura, ARK offloading liquid positions for illiquid positions. How many funds are levered big to SPAC pipes or units? As Ive said plenty in prior weeks and months, I think short the high growth covid fads is finally a sound proposition and have short positions in the ARK funds. Puts on ARK + spac ETFs as well. Still have some SPAK short but was bought in on about 1/3 of the position I have at one firm a couple weeks back. Looking to put it on again but also starting to feel post deal close spac are going to start getting ugly and good shorts here. I also think its a good time to be hedging with VIX calls. Leverage is a fun thing and like with Archegos, who knows where and who it blows up! Who's seeing the matrix? How are people playing this?

No problem! I dont know these people it was just a very tragic story I came across scrolling around, both Cohodes and Kuppy flagged it so good for them...both awesome dudes. If there is nothing else the past year has taught us its to be grateful and not take shit for granted. Too often I think folks with financial backgrounds or mentality become petty and cheap, and become too focused on planning for the next 5/10/20 years out, etc. Skipping the $3 coffee, tipping 15% based on pre tax amount, etc...I think thats a sad way to live and when you think of it, nothing is guaranteed in life. You really need to appreciate and live for today while also planning for tomorrow. Giving back is the right thing to do. We are all super fortunate. Even folks with $50-100k in a savings account, let alone those with 6/7/8 figures....we're all super-good for today and tomorrow and plenty of people arent. If everyone made an effort to be a little less cheap/more generous maybe the scumbag politicians wouldnt be able to goad everyone into class warfare and all that crap. For me I try to find something like this once a month or so and contribute. Doesnt have to be a lot of money but just an exercise in thinking of others which also forces you to really appreciate how good you have it and not take it for granted. Cheers!

All the money being made by fortunate folks like us, do something positive with some of it. https://www.gofundme.com/f/nicholas-caleb-johnson-support?utm_campaign=m_pd+share-sheet&utm_medium=copy_link_all&utm_source=customer

https://www.yahoo.com/news/virus-fight-stalls-early-hot-140524851.html Meanwhile Vin Gupta wants to go on CNBC last week and talk about AZ/TX/FL..... edit: cleaned up some adjectives to describe the disingenuous academic fool Gupta

^ There's nothing necessarily wrong with that, but thats the problem plenty of investors have. They are either arrogant ro refuse to evolve from their original framework and then spend years underperforming while telling themselves everyone else is crazy and destined to fail...