Gregmal

Hilarious. Will it ever end? https://seekingalpha.com/news/3682289-greenlights-einhorn-takes-on-lax-regulators-gamestop-short-squeeze-in-q1-letter Basically "I failed to learn anything and missed some big potential catalysts and lost a ton of money shorting.....again. And its everyone else's fault"

I was watching Yellowstone the other day; first series/show in ages Ive actually gotten into....naturally the sheer beauty of the setting led me to looking at RE in that area and around nearby places in MT, WY, and ID. The prices are as breathtaking as the views.

Just wait and see. Learn from our Canadian friends. You're just trying to buy yourself a home. Thats basically where everyone is at right now. Wait til everyone and their mother owns 5 condos! Its one of the surest things Ive ever seen in my life. Famous last words, I know. But everything is lined up, from wealth inequality, to yield desperation and insurance companies. The little guy is gonna start seeing wage increases and thats going to set off the powder keg.

This guy is a fool if he thinks we're in a housing bubble in the US...You currently have a generation of "never buy" now wanting to buy. Decade in the making supply constraint after a once in a generation economic reset. Whats the average credit score of people getting mortgages today? How many people do you know with multiple speculative housing projects/investments? Because the heavy majority of the folks Ive heard from are simply dying to get into THEIR OWN primary residence and cant. The 2005 bubble was on the back of 6% mortgages. Today we are at 3%. There's going to be a massive runway for housing based purely on demand, and nothing is stopping it. If we're in a bubble with housing, its top of the first inning.

Small starters in BOMN and Z. The latter of which I finally decided to make the shift from psychologically being a bear and disliking many of the traditional metrics...and realizing that 1) its been a great investment over the years, and 2) if my housing thesis plays out this will be a gloriously good investment. Will see how it goes.

No issue with ads, as long as they arent jammed inside a post like what was happening before. I dont want to deal with reading a flow through idea and then having my train of thought disrupted by some stupid add, then scroll down, and continue the same idea. But outside of this, I dont think its an issue and also realize its probably necessary to keep the lights on and am all for it. Would be easier if it could be a user choice. I would pay not to see any. But you force everyone to take that option, you'll kill the site and user base.

This is basically a regurgitation of the classic MSM favorite headline of "he doubted the virus, AND THEN IT GOT HIM!" that we've seen a million times over the past year. However its void of the basic fact that the numbers are the numbers and while young people can get it and die, it is extremely unlikely. There will be casualties, but its no reason, at least in the land of the free, to take control over everyone's lives, and punish or vilify anyone who disagrees. Theres' plenty of gyms and owners, such as the one in NJ Murphy has levied over $1m USD in fines against, who are fine and just want to work/run their business/be left alone by big government. There's nothing wrong with subservient academics, they have a place and serve a purpose...but they certain dont belong in the discussion of how to run economies or manage people. Its like saying analysts should run hedge funs. If they were any good at it, they'd be doing it.

I can literally make up a reason for doing anything and claim I'm trying to save lives. Believe me, I heard non stop here in NJ from Phil Murphy over the past year about how we're "saving lives"...except, they weren't. NJ leads the entire USA in death rate. There is more excuse for error in the beginning. But once there was a handle on the subject, it's entirely inexcusable to keep doing things that so horrifically infringe upon peoples rights. Maybe in other countries...but not in America. Let alone continuing to lie to people and use slogans like "saving lives" that have zero proof or substance by the way of evidence or by comparison to others. These people knowingly turn it into a "we're saving lives" issue because who is going to argue against that? And no one in the media will call it out. But if we go by the numbers, they didnt save anything in excess of what others did without all the nonsense. And they should have cut it out a while ago, but chose not to. And yet, its amazing, in a really messed up way, that despite such blatantly power hungry, attention seeking, self aggrandizing, personal ambition driven snakes, people still credit them with "saving lives".

Good article on "the science"... https://zeynep.substack.com/p/the-gaslighting-of-science In regards to your point, Richard, you can compare to the US vs Canada deaths and draw conclusions. I am sure they are there. But I dont know if we get to the root of the issue entirely. The leading states by death rate are NY, NJ, MA...Ones that stole peoples rights, talked about "saving lives" and then led the country is deaths....So the approach can obviously not be viewed as a "success". For all the talk about density, which is valid, especially with airborne transmission, you have things swinging equally back to the other side in places less dense. For instance NYC is massively dense. But everything was closed and people trapped in their homes..not allowed to see friends or family. Not allowed to work out. Not even allowed to go for walks at one point. In FL, there's obviously less density, but troves of young people, many still living at home, running out to bars, restaurants and parties at will and then coming home. While its hard to quantify the +/- for each, what is clear is that usurping the rights of people and yet not showing any material benefit justifying it, is one of the biggest injustices in American history. And we talk about the facts, but it was clear very early on, like the above piece laid out, what the approaches should have been to take meaningful action. And yet, the politicians, the scientists, and the experts, did nothing but double down on failure, grandstand at their daily "look at me" press conferences, and hired help to book all their tv appearances. When they "changed their minds" or got "new info" they made it into a media spectacle. They could have easily reversed course or changed the approach, but they let personal incentives get in the way. Its a disgrace and they should, but won't, be held accountable for it.

^Exactly. So in pretty much any scenario(or less emphatically, most highly probable scenarios) real estate, especially of the residential variety....wins. That said, come on down to the US. Our housing bubble 2.0 party is just getting started, and should run for a good decade or two from here.

I am not referring to Cigarbutt but I think the general gist of your comment alludes to a major issue that has largely been scrubbed and/or ignored. How badly the experts, the scientists, and the doctors have gotten this. How much they have undermined the very system of healthcare, medicine, and science. Repeatedly, from the get go, they've made outrageous predications. They've repeatedly jumped up on the podiums they've been given to spew viewpoints and narratives that have been unsubstantiated and downright wrong. Yet, they've continuously been given passes for this. The greatest example being the "wear masks, dont wear masks, no wear them actually, wait wear two!" from people like Fauci. Who at the very same time was doing every talk show he could appear on and attending baseball games. But it goes well beyond that. "Oh its spread by contact. Oh actually no, just by standard flu like transmission. You can stop ordering Clorox products now!". Its been a total embarrassment, meanwhile, they are the first ones to arrogantly snide people, or condescendingly preach at how irresponsible and stupid anyone who questions things like masks or now "the vaccine" are. The slogans about "savings lives" via vaccination when actually, no, when vaccinated you are just asymptomatic...whoops! The best we get in terms of accountability is a half assed mea culpa about "the facts evolving" or how actually they are absolved because while they said what they did, they kind of minced words and were purposely vague or noncommittal. The lockdowns were a total disgrace and now its coming out to an undeniable degree that the motive behind them was impure. As if you need anymore evidence, now see Whitmers take on it. None of the "experts" can explain why the states doing it the right way have similar/better figures than the states abusing people. They just ignore it. Here when people hear things they dont want to they scream politics. But this has nothing to do with politics. I asked my brother, a real PHD doctor(you need to distinguish these days because of all the academics trying to take credit for being a Dr) why these people made such fools of themselves. He had a good point in saying "doctors are by very nature people who need to be told their direction. They spend their 20s in school and you either regurgitate whats in the books, or you fail. Then you spend a big chunk of time in residency...working for BSDs and doing exactly as you are told. Where to show up, how long to work, etc. You have zero say in anything. And even once you get past that decade plus of molding, you are subject to "information" and "data", which is largely derived from the same academic institutions, pharmaceutical companies with agendas, or like minded peers. Its a process and if you want the white coat, you have to become subservient to it. There is also a big emphasis on being noncommittal, and you are trained to pitch people the worst case scenario" So I think a lot of the issue is simply why we care what these people have to say? They're trained by nature to take what they are fed by "their sources" and to basically look down on others. They either dont have it in them to take a real, concrete stance; or when they do, go way off the deep end in terms of negativity and pessimism. Perhaps folks just need to rely on common sense instead of "expert" opinions? I've basically said since day one back in March 2020, live life how you wish. How am I doing it? Wear a mask, dont go around hugging everyone, and do exactly what you would have been prior to this whole escapade. Worked well so far. Cant say the same for the folks who have literally wasted significant portions of the last year taking direction from master(while master continues to live the high life).

https://www.yahoo.com/news/michigans-virus-cases-control-putting-152045172.html Interesting. Michigan, one of the most egregious states as far as draconian measures are concerned; is a total disaster. Yet, unlike last year, she's not locking things down. Hmmmm. Whatever could be at play here? Meanwhile, Arizona.....

Not sure if this is a talk show or what, if any financial background the guys have, but I watched a few minutes because someone sent me a link saying they talked about APTS. For one, if you look at ~$300M in NOI, and then (incorrectly) look at a $3B EV, and dont conclude this is 1) too good to be true, and 2) something must be off otherwise its the bargain of a lifetime...well, I think that says a lot. It certainly doesnt scream "financially in the know", at least to me. Otherwise, this exact process is a big part of the reason PAC is where it is, and the opportunity exists. I mean, people, qualified people, looked at SPG at $50/60/70 post covid crash and wanted nothing to do with it. And thats the cream of the crop, A rated credit company. So its no wonder a company like PAC gets left for dead. Microcap REIT. Still probably listed as externally managed. Profile says MF, retail, and office. $2.5B+ in debt against ~350M in market cap. Cut dividend. Still with me? Well, maybe you are you brave and diligent soul...and then you dig into the filings and boom get the whole $2B+ of preferred dropped on your head....at which point even the most arduous person probably goes, OK, fuck this...pass. Those clouds shall pass though.

Shorted a little more ARKG today.

IDK, but I can point to a number of high profile homes, land(Mark Hughes BH acreage), sports teams(Steinbrenner bought the Yankees 50 years ago) and other things that have provided an adequate return over a very long period of time. An acre of land in South FL in the 1930s was $10. Can anyone name a public company, let alone many, that you could have bought then and still owned today with something similar to show for it? You have so much more risk and variables owning a business. Not to say it cant work, but its definitely harder IMO. I mean we use Costco as an example...how many people currently and in the past several years refuse to own it because they bitch and moan about valuation and its improbability to produce long term returns? You want to test long term with 15 years from a 38x PE? I'll totally take the other side and wager the Knicks are worth way more than the currently implied $3.5B(or even $5B in you want to use Forbes).

The thing is, businesses may be a reflection to some degree of their future earnings. But assets are not necessarily. What was the PE or FCF yield on the Dallas Cowboys when Jerry Jones bought them, or the NY Yankees when Steinbrenner picked them up? How does that compare to today? To me, it is much easier to forecast safety in the long term, of an asset, vs durability, let alone ability to appreciate, of a business. There will only be one NY Yankees 15-20 years from now. There will be more billionaires. Meanwhile someone can come along and displace Costco, or the government can break up Google or Berkshire. So far, my only level of comfort in predicting long term oriented events, would be with things they cant replace.

My understanding is that the vaccine is not yet know to prevent transmission, rather it simply throws one into the asymptomatic category. I do not know the "science" though. My oldest younger brother, who is an MD(not Jill Biden type PHD, but real white coat wearing PHD) says get the vaccine and figure it out later. My youngest brother who is a grad student in one of the most prestigious Ivy League biomedical/genetic engineering programs in the country, says he'll take care of it the traditional way; at a bar with his friends... to each their own.

Youre also going to need to be vaccinated to go anywhere or to do anything. No, the US government will not "mandate" a passport apparently. But these scumbags will refuse to pass legislation protecting businesses from ambulance chasing lawyers. So that strong arms the private sector into defense mode, which, by default, will be to mandate proof of vaccination. Nice little work around there, but its the same thing and thats where its going. I mean shit, look at Cornell, Rutgers, etc....No one is allowed to take classes without a vaccine starting in Fall '21....

I actually never owned AIRC and generally speaking think poorly of everyone involved; from the crooks running the company to loudmouth Litt. AIV just kind of jumped off the screen though as a classic orphan spin setup. Checked every box down to getting booted from the index and trading under $5. Mid December MF coastal had decent clarity. So it wasnt like I'd be buying a business, just assets that were stupid cheap after everything else had just rallied. So I bought the stub post spin. Turned out releasing the financials and maybe some insider buying ended up being the catalyst that got things done. But it basically played out exactly as one would draw it up. If you're looking for an investment theres better assets and better managers out there than anything in the AIV/AIRC complex.

Hmmmmmm. So you basically would need to show a photo ID to eat or travel.... I'm expecting all major corporations to boycott this nonsense. Otherwise, was debating whether or not to post this. But whatever. Got my 2nd shot last Friday. Around 12 hours after went from normal, to shaky, to 103.7 fever at the peak. Lasted for about 6 hours. Felt less than stellar, but OK the next day, and after 36 hours from getting the shot was back out on my boat fishing at midnight with my friends Bud Light and Marlboro. Strangely, I asked a few friends who got both shots if they had anything similar? They said yeah, just to varying effects...thanks for the heads up dickheads! Although also interesting is that the younger people I knew definitely had side effects at a much greater rate than the 15% or so given to everyone. The older people, seemed to have side effects that were much more moderate. Who knows.

BABA is the new Verizon it seems.

^^Yup. I generally like to go anywhere from a week to maybe a month or so out, and 15-20% or so out of the money, at least on things I wouldnt mind being put, but yea. Selling puts like that is just playing dealer at the casino. Everyone I know was going crazy trying to figure out how to short or buy puts on GME the past 3 months. Answer was simple. Just sell puts. All day. Money in the bank. I remember getting like $5 per share for some April $20s back in early February. $4 for March $15 puts. Got 45c for some July $4 puts. 10c on the $1 puts. It was beautiful. Best part is when the stock went from $340 to $50 and the puts still lost 50%+ of their value.

Cleared remainder of AIV.

Immerse yourself in the markets you want to learn about. Track whats for sale, what sold, etc. Call brokers and shoot the shit. Read the reports put together by the big guys. Learn what drives pricing; its different for each area but common threads exist. Stuff like the below attachment is easily available. CWRetail.pdf

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3678908-office-reit-stocks-lag-broader-market-gains-as-office-occupancy-stays-low Is retail vs office still a debate? Dont get me wrong, premier trophy properties are still gold, especially in the era of Project Zimbabwe. But as an asset class or lets say for instance, if you are the owner of a large pool of these...its hard to imagine meaningful improvement over the short to mid term. With tax increases looming, companies have further incentive to squeeze savings. How does it play out? If you have a current lease everyone will at some point head back to the cubicles and corner offices. But there's definitely going to be serious discussions when renewal comes up; at least much more so than there was in 2019. The occupancy rates as it stands arent great, but are also misleading because of supply coming to market and additionally the nature of an office leases(IE long term, so really the only people who's shift has been reflected are folks who's leases expired in 2020 or 2021). Is there a catalyst or angle to be a hardcore office bull right now other than relative value? I am by no means in the short camp, for the simple reason that March 2020+ threw things so out of whack that you could buy things with terrible issues and still make money, but as things in RE-world continue normalizing, eventually the fundamental issues will become the valuation driver. So when "not all going BK" gets crossed of the list of catalysts, and it shifts more over to "expanding sq/ft and occupancy"...whats this going to look like?