Gregmal

Yup, yup. Meanwhile the uninformed are focusing on whether they can cover the dividend or not and how come the release showed they lost money last year!! Try plugging in modest price appreciation on Sun Belt assets and see what that does to the equation! Actually just try marking the current portfolio to market instead of gross reported GAAP based asset value...

Those order and backlog numbers are stunning. Sun Belt homebuilder on absolute fire? Dont pull my leg now! Who'd have seen that coming? Anyhow, painfully averaged up on the pullback in APTS. Still think there's probably $20 per share or so of upside over the next year or two given the profile of the company and especially the leveraged balance sheet. APTS - nice idea here Greg - thanks much! No problem my man! If you are bullish on that region the portfolio is incredible. Boner worthy even. Probably one of the most misunderstood and under recognized REITs out there. Similar in a lot of ways to CLPR. The majority of the mortgages are long term and fixed rate. Collections across the board have been incredibly strong. MF properties are class A in every sense and newest amongst any public company. Unique development pipeline and strategy....and of course the preferred shares, which are almost unanimously detested but quite genius in their purpose. Probably worthy of a thread but quite a lot to cover and Im somewhat lazy.

Those order and backlog numbers are stunning. Sun Belt homebuilder on absolute fire? Dont pull my leg now! Who'd have seen that coming? Anyhow, painfully averaged up on the pullback in APTS. Still think there's probably $20 per share or so of upside over the next year or two given the profile of the company and especially the leveraged balance sheet.

^The above is completely standard operating procedure at almost every firm these days. Especially KYC and AML stuff. Everyone is in full blown over your ass mode. That said, they are "required" to ask those questions. You are not generally required to answer. Or give satisfactory answers. But they need to show they "tried". Its all very predictable and par for the course. Same goes for the new "trusted contact" rule.

Sold MAA. Had discussed this one with many folks in later half of Q4. Said it was a super conservative, no brainer Sun Belt play and you could get 10-15% 2021 return with your eyes closed. Got it in 2.5 months. You're welcome. From here I think there's less ripe risk adjusted fruit.

Took a bit off the BTC holdings and bought a few Michael Jordan autos(real, hard signed ones, not NFT junk).....is it real yet? #asset allocationFTW

Its almost as if WS is working for us to create the ultimate product to sell short. Keep em coming.

I think Loop is a little bit of a conflicted actor....what I'd look at is the historical returns associated with post deal spacs. They are pretty brutal. The May 2020-now phenomena is probably IMO short lived and certainly unsustainable simply from the basis of how many spacs are now out there. Chart the number of spacs launched by year starting in 2015. In no uncertain terms a bubble. Mean reversion is inevitable. That doesnt mean the pre announcement and pre deal close window still cant be an amazing hunting ground for opportunity though.

You're welcome. March_Investor_Presentation_FINAL_2021.03.01.pdf

Doesnt SSTK own a whole library of digital crap? Perhaps some value investor could write it up as the new SOTP story...$100,000 price target/ thesis is basically GAAP accounting forcing them to obscure their treasure trove of assets. Im all for BTC because its the literal definition of legal front running. But this other shit is really kind of insane.

Bought a bunch of the 2023 $110s earlier in the week. Already got a number of mortgages; 3.25% on my primary, mid 4s in my investment properties. All 30 yr. On stocks/REITS I mainly have things I think do well regardless, IE multifamily, hard asset owner, low/no debt, but also a few more speculative names so the bulk of my position in the TLT puts I think of as a hedge. It also could just work regardless, without anything blowing up but rather the trend we have seen since vaccine announcement in November...continue. Treasury spread to REITS as of a couple months ago was obviously unsustainable. Great start to the year being super long BRK, long Sun Belt, long specific recovery, and short ARK+covid fads. I think it continues. I agree a hyper inflation move is a risk, so pointless to outright ignore it.

Inspired by LearningMachine and my man Cardboard, and also an obscenely fat real estate portfolio....I recently bought a nice chunk of longer dated TLT puts. Solid insurance I view it as.

Bought some BKEP premarket on the big announcement. Swapping this in for the preferred shares I own and will sell during the day. Transformation is taking shape! Whoa, whoa, whoa....buying the preferred at a big discount to par, selling at a premium to par and then swapping it into the much de-risked common before it makes a 50% move inside 4 months? Gregmal, how do you do it? Timing stocks is apparently impossible! Jokes aside, I bought some more of this yesterday. New management is kicking ass and taking names. Now pureplay infrastructure terminaling co with growth outlook. This along with AP stand to be massive winners from Joseph R. Biden's(hopefully the usual suspects arent offended by my mentioning of that name) eventual infrastructure push.

Camath basically got famous, as least in the capacity of being a money manger/finance guy, within the past 12-18 months and did almost all of it harnessing his branding power and hyping his "deals" to the moon. Not only has it already been shown to be unsustainable, but within its context, he's basically just the equivalent of a banking dude who got the hottest IPO's and claims he's the greatest but really is just tied to them popping a lot right out of the gate. Yea, he didnt even get through lockup expiration on many of these. He's the definition of a fad. At least ARK has consistently bought and held small companies, for many years, that turned into multi baggers or real world relevant names.....

There's definitely truth to that logic....but what if you dont want to have to be that active? In that case you should just buy a 30%+ position in Berkshire Hathaway, short some ARK stuff and then go on vacation for 6 weeks and not worry about anything! Trust me, I did it!

Chamath is a grade A tool. People rip on ARK/Wood, but they've been doing it the old fashioned way, for a good many years now. Buy public company stocks, make their money as those holdings go up(or wayyyy up!). Chamath is a glorified stock promoter/pump and dump artist. Barry Honig 2.0 IMO

Inflation hurting RE is one of the biggest widespread, false narratives I consistently see people peddling. It is my belief, especially in certain areas(Sunbelt) that we're entering a phase not unsimilar in parallels to the mid 2000's. It will also mirror the tech bubble part one(late 90s) and tech bubble part 2(2015-now) in terms of how it plays out. First go around was warranted excitement but also ahead of itself, second go around is all that but with fundamentals to support it, and let it run longer and larger. And during housing bubble part 1.....mortgages where 5-8%...... EDIT: to clarify, I wouldn't exactly want to be a highly levered owner of certain RE assets, especially with a lot of short/mid term maturities. But otherwise, most of the higher rates = RE is fucked narrative, is crap.

Well, first, I'll say, its not all genius, just being in the market(as always) is important. Tangentially I was super disappointed because during my absence there was apparently oh so much hope that all of readthecliffnotes super duper highly important financial industry superstar professional friends would finally find their way back to COBF since apparently people like myself turned them off so much! Dont know what happened but was at the least hoping they could teach us how to make oodles of money like the big boys. Perhaps show us how to short highly levered retailers using an Excel sheet inspired declining same store sales thesis? I dunno. But for little old me....I generally just go with that dirty little thing called gut feeling. Spacs are all about 2 things. Price and Marketability. So if someone gives me a unit at $10, its free money. Because the warrant itself is worth something. You want a little bit of marketability in theme or even name. Meme-y shit is a check in the positive column. Also important and overlooked is warrant cut. Not all $10 units are equal. So as an example....BIOTU at $10. You have a hot sector theme...check. Meme-y name...doesnt get better then "Biotech acquisition", and then you've got a 1/2 warrant so at $10 thats money in the bank and from there you just have to decide for yourself whats the comfort level as the price moves up. But be careful as a unit at $10.05 with 1/3 of a warrant is not equal to a unit at 10.05 with 1/2 warrant. Unless it comps for it elsewhere. Like a superstar manager for instance. So I wouldn't necessarily buy the cheapest first but it weighs into the equation. As does big ticket manager or even shit as stupidly simple as a marketable name with a good underwriter, etc. Hope this helps everyone interested.

Thank you. Was good to hear about all the love.

As requested! The updated list. ACEVU- +43% sold on announcement 2/19 ACICU- +68% sold on announcement 2/10 CGROU- +38% sold on announcement 12/07 CFACU- +46% sold on announcement 2/12 CFIIU- +12% sold on announcement 12/1 ETACU- still hold FUSEU- +31% sold on announcement 2/12 SRACU- +88% sold after announcement FSRVU- +64% sold on announcement 1/12 FTIVU- +31% sold on announcement 1/25 LATNU- still hold FRXU- +22% sold on announcement 2/10 LSAQ- still hold SPNVU- +19% sold, broke 12 no news CAPAU- +137% sold on announcement 2/18 IGACU- sold most around 12 on speculation pop, but still hold some PTICU- still hold SRSAU- still hold OACBU- still hold new adds: FLACU, LWACU, FOXWU, BIOTU, SPGSU, IIIIU I think if anything based on dates and pops one can figure out where the top was, but the same could be said for many stocks if you use the recent chart as a marker. You could raise the issue on timing the trade as a risk, but I generally just keep it simple; sell on the day of the announcement, sell if it trades at too much of a premium to cash, sell if a real investment comes along and you need the capital. I view cash as garbage and with the money printers on full blast and showing now signs of stopping, I view these, especially now around $10 as a much better placeholder....even in some cases they are purely margined so add a 1% annual carry to the underwritten capital at risk. Then again Id also point out that Ive been doing this for years and not just something I started when it became popular 10 months ago so my mentality is different. But the idea of $10(floor), $9.50(doomsday), upside-multiples of the downside, has always sounded pretty good to me. It isnt/wasnt uncommon for these to trade high 10s or low 11s 8-12 months after IPO, even pre mania. I'm also OK just flip flop trading for 2-3%. To each their own though.

Buena suerte. Lots of air still in this bubble. Indeed. It went up a lot and now down a lot because thats what bubbles do. The fundamentals probably arent relevant until $50 a share. Although $100 maybe be a support level cause its a nice round number and thats the type of thing retail investors predicate their shizz on. Kind like how RICK hit a wall at $69! In other news. Shorted some PSTH Jan 2022 $20 puts for ~$3.50, also cranked out some June $22.50s for ~2.50 Long live spac alpha.

You buy into select spacs right now because you have negligible(1-10%) downside and can quickly pivot out of them when better opportunities in the equity world arrive. I'd happily take a 5% haircut on a spac to buy into a great equity on a large-scale panic selloff. Heck, there was a point in time when 5% was a transaction cost. Its negligible in the right situation and in other situations its just temporary. I will try at a later point to update the list I posted some months ago but Ive only bought a couple the during calendar 2021. But theres very much a point to owning these here because you get certainty in a market thats shitting itself. You get a quick few % on a market rebound. You get a potential deal announcement. Some you get warrant separation. And most excitingly, around $10 you can T these motherfuckers up like nothing else. Underwrite whatever you want but take BIOTU at $10.04. I made this a ~10% position today. If a assume a worst case scenario downside of $9 for the UNITS(yea right), my capital at risk is 1%. Who cares about 1%? Whereas in these sort of scenarios, the upside takes care of itself.

He might, but he might not. And even if he does, its hard to argue its done anyone any good. I recall being long Blackberry leading into the eventual "fake bid". It was appealing from a value perspective and it was obvious they were really going to put the company in play. But when the best that comes of a real process is a sham bid from Fairfax at what was maybe IIRC a 5-10% premium....that tells you everything you needed to know. RUN TF AWAY. I actually came to believe that the BB deal was possibly more of a good publicity thing; bailing out one of Canadas national treasures...than it was a sound investment. FFH is stupid cheap here, but what it needs is an activist to come in and tell Prem..."you're done! No more investments. No more shorting. Either index or buy Berkshire"...if that happened this would probably rally 40%.

It is because pressure on hospitals has eased: [/img] How dare you use science and data to make decisions. LOL the same "science and data" Cuomo used when NYC hospitals were overcapacity and needed 30,000 ventilators in April but then in August when launching his book, all of a sudden they had more ventilators than they needed and the hospitals were apparently never even close to capacity? Or the science where men can become women overnight due to a "change of mind"? You tell me bud... Well, the only way the difference between April and August could be true is if....lockdowns worked? ::Audible gasps:: I think you misinterpreted it. Cuomo, in April, was talking about hospitals being maxed out. Then in August during his book tour, claimed he did a great job and that hospitals were never close to being over capacity(back in April). He either lied in April or lied in August. But thats the data and science they use so...

It is because pressure on hospitals has eased: [/img] How dare you use science and data to make decisions. LOL the same "science and data" Cuomo used when NYC hospitals were overcapacity and needed 30,000 ventilators in April but then in August when launching his book, all of a sudden they had more ventilators than they needed and the hospitals were apparently never even close to capacity? Or the science where men can become women overnight due to a "change of mind"? You tell me bud...