Gregmal

ASP being $430k isn’t inaccessible because of plumbers. It’s because Fed went mental on a rate crusade and with 20% down you’re now looking at like $4000 a month for a shit box. Even if prices went back to pre COVID levels, because of mortgage rates being where they are, it’s still massively exclusive for the average person. Also embedded in this is that most Americans haven’t actually had any sort of material wage growth since GFC. And now they start to demand it, and have some leverage to get it, and these academic assholes do what? Ooh wage growth bad lol. Like you can’t even make this shit up. It’s so incompetent at the highest levels that one might think it’s not incompetence and that the game is just rigged.

It’s like these Fed guys are so arrogant that they refuse to acknowledge that they can not control inflation if it is caused by certain elements in the economy that they have no control over. So they just ignore it and say “inflation up, raise rates”. It’s hilarious watching this because it just shows an academic deer in the headlights

Yea but the super core stuff is bullshit as is the outdated and academically inspired “dual mandate”. Once we start carving up niche ways to create an “inflation problem”, gives people way too many avenues to run with data, as we ve seen. If the true concern is widespread/broad reaching “inflation”…by far and away the two biggest problems are housing and energy. If the objective is to hit the area most significantly impacting the lives of Americans, especially the average ones, it’s housing. And housing has been made widely inaccessible and unacceptably unaffordable for most, because of the Fed and their rate hike crusade. These imbeciles are so dumb that it seems they blindly look at some “inflation gauge” and then just go “too high” and simultaneously shout “raise rates”, almost completely oblivious to the cause and effects of such. This is why we narrow down and strip out this or that…it’s nonsense. Fix housing and energy and the “real” inflation is pretty much zero, if not negative. Just because we go “oh services” and act like this is more impactful in a negative way than people’s shelter situation doesn’t make that the truth.

And then we re back to people calling for rate hikes over things like oil prices(zero to do with rates) and housing(the reason housing is bloated is because of rate hikes)…

It’s kinda funny but I actually agree with much of this. The question is, did it matter? Wasn’t it inevitable? Trump pissed off the media and liberals because he mastered THEIR game. It enraged them that they couldn’t slander him in the news or leak a video and put an end to his campaign. That had been the liberal way until then, in fact, it still kinda is. There was no question Mitt Romney was the most qualified candidate we ve had for president in decades. And the media turned it into a runaway for Obama using race bait, culture war propaganda, and lies/innuendo. Trump found a way to negate that, and that’s why they all went mental. I’ll still never forget the Presidential Debate where when asked our greatest foreign threat, Romney competently explains that it’s Russia…and Obama, offering nothing but a made for tv quip about “the 1980s called and wants their foreign policy back” and instantly became the winner of that debate…yes, on an arrogant, ignorant, and flat out wrong wisecrack! Now the same outlets that celebrate that “own”…want to cry to us about big bad Russia. Fuck them

Dont think it works in Canada but the 30 year mortgage really starts doing its thing once you get past the first say 5-8 years....especially with a decent down payment. The equity gets larger, the interest payments smaller, you dont even really need appreciation of the home, although that happens quite often as well. Basically you start approaching the mortgage "tipping point" they call it where your principal payments exceed the interest payments..is where you really see your "worth" accelerate and this unlocks a lot of variables for you in terms of accessing the equity. Also around this time, is where you really start to see the benefits of inflation on that fixed rate. There was a point in time, not even really that long ago, where a $3,000 a month housing payment was considered large. Today? Not so much. So its really just where the good aspects start accelerating up and the negative ones accelerate downward...a tailwind for the owner.

If this was a big deal for the investment landscape...how is that? Because the only "effects" I saw, especially now in hind site were: 1) short term volatility(so what unless youre selling newsletters or gambling on 0DTE crap) 2) A speculator wet dream to run up energy prices over the next few months which then warped the CPI index everyone is obsessed with...like didnt we have $120 oil for the summer 22 9 prints? 3) gave US government an excuse to steal peoples assets So the majority of the market participants had no business getting all riled up. This looks to be another one. The media and the subscription sellers seem to just always need to have a new reason for their daily/weekly "this is a really big deal and we're on the precipice of a huge market collapse" snake oil to sell.

Like this whole PARA shitshow should really highlight that for people. Shari didn’t build that empire. Her incentives in doing a deal aren’t what everyone in the thread are “guessing” based on their own normal people conventional wisdom and game theory. Her father built the empire through investment, cleverly navigating capital markets, and then estate planning. Risk taking is often confused with being careless but risk taking is necessary for any sort of growth to occur. Growth meaning, building something. If I want to build something, I can and have to take that risk. If I can’t, then the next best option is to try to participate in someone else building something. If I can’t do either…then what value do I bring to the table? Well, I’m probably just a cog then. And will have to be a cog for as long as the system tells me.

Do you not think though that either you are working for money or money is working for you is what separates those with freedom from those who don’t? The system is designed to benefit, dare I say, even serve the haves. The only real way to break the cycle is to try to participate in the mechanisms through which the haves benefit. Which is primarily investment in business, owning the resources, avoiding unnecessary taxation. Nobody is retiring early getting 5-6% pre tax on their money. And that 5-6% has only been recent. Imagine trying to get ahead with 2-3% annually? The compounding magic is real. The mortgage pay down magic is real. You just gotta let it work.

This is probably one of the first things they SHOULD be teaching in business school. Or any school for that matter. I know a lot of young people, say under 40 years of age and many in the 20-30 camp. 90% are terrified of taking risks(forget the fact that they habitually fail to properly even assess what risks are in the first place), and probably 3/4 of those that invest only do it through company sponsored programs. Probably more than half treat their money like they are 80…savings accounts, CDs, money market accounts…Then everyone complains about inflation and not being ahead….

Lol +5

When we have war, markets go down and treasuries get bid up. That’s exactly what happened Friday…yet the monkeys at cnbc who are obsessed with pushing the inflation narrative claimed markets sold off on “inflation fears”…ugh rates don’t tank on inflation fears

All we have gotten from this administration is wars and conflict. I said in October, these events and the blood of those people is on the hands on the people who enabled this because “orange man bad”…

Yea I remember people selling their stocks in February 2022 and telling us how big a deal Russia/Ukraine was was well. This was widely expected Friday during trading so again is probably just the drama queens and noise boys gambling on….idk what.

I mean it really just comes down to one’s ability to understand what they invest in. If the worst case is that you can buy more of things you like for the mid-longer term…then what’s there to be afraid of? People act like drawdowns and volatility are something to be feared, but I’ve always found them fun. If you’re under 50 and your livelihood is not going to be impaired by stock market volatility then just pig out when all these short term trading clowns freak out. You want to be ACCUMULATING durable and desirable asset for as much of your useful life as possible. I don’t consider cash to be one of those. Much rather own great businesses and real estate.

IDK. In Q4 2021 I was told real estate was gonna crash when they raised rates. I bought a townhouse on the lake instead(in a blue state at that!). Today my neighbor, identical unit, closed on the sale of their unit at 37% premium. I haven't calculated what t-bills woulda done for me. No substitute for just using common sense. Real assets will do well in the current and future environment, regardless of what the little monkey boys bidding up and down stocks assure us.

Yawn. Inflation will be 2.5-4.5%...rates will be 3-5%....get on with life. It seems both up and down everyone needs to extrapolate rather meaningless and arbitrary fluctuations and trends. 15 months of declines and its "wait and see" and 3 months of meh and "its ramping back up"...consistent much? Shelter still at 8 and thats...drumroll....because of higher rates. Insurance is a rate derivative as well. And energy has nothing to do with anything rate wise. Still basically where we've been all along. A big nothing burger with an overzealous audience.

Nah, just not much going on in between their phase development but things are picking up quickly there. Not thrilled with the capital allocation and might have a chat with Mark soon, but its more sins of omission, not commission.

Slug of PCYO.

Nah, its actually a very low risk scam-like operation. I'd be shocked if he is still materially short Fairfax. He closes substantial portions of his "shorts" within days of first going public as thats when you get maximum movement. Why wait for fundamentals to prove you right or (likely) wrong?

Legit short sellers keep their positions quiet and generally abhor the idea of their positions leaking as if youre actually investing it makes many of the short specific nuances much more challenging. Its only the smash and grabbers who only look to keep the position on in a very short term way who take the scream from the mountain tops hoping to scare people and move the market approach.

Ive said it a million times but I dont know how anyone has ANY respect for short sellers, especially the ones that publicly pull this shit just trying to cause short term moves in stock prices. What kind of scum seeks to profit off misfortune of others? Especially so gloatingly and publicly? Like you realize tons of people invest in and/or work at these companies, have stock options, retirement plans, etc? The way they excuse this is always by trying to paint the NEOs in some nefarious way, or act like the company is evil...and hey, sometimes thats true, but often it is just fabricated, and either way...why not just let things play out without having to try to be the reason for damaging a company in a negative way?

Dont worry, rather than acknowledge and address the issue, people will just make derogatory comments about Musk and Bezos being China apologists!

Move along…he’s a scumbag who uses the media to manipulate and move his positions. Nothing more.

Hmmm, so all those governance issues at Aimco? Think this bodes very well for AIV.