Libs

Bingo. This is timely because I suddenly find myself 95% invested in 'really good companies.' I'm incapable, somehow, of holding back when these opportunities present themselves. Even though I'm also 95% sure we're gonna have a recession! This sounds like it's in conflict, but if I'm honest with myself, I've been a lot more accurate with the first prediction ('really good company') than the second ( fill in the blank, any macro call).

Stahleyp - taking on the atheist mob. Props for the effort (a lonely one for sure).....even though no one's gonna change their mind.

I am fortunate to enjoy gambling without having any addictive issues with it. It truly adds spice to life if done in small doses. That said, I'm deeply skeptical of beating the horse races. Overcoming the 20% take seems impossible, frankly, unless you are an insider like a trainer, and bet large amounts on the rare occasion you have a big edge.

The problem is Baffert's horses get massively overbet. He wins a lot, but not enough to justify getting 3/5 odds all the time.

Some PBR

SCHW

If I may add a word about Wabuffo. On the old yahoo finance BRK site (Chuck's Angels?) we'd have an annual stock-picking contest. Of course he came up with the most eclectic, interesting stuff. I recall a tiny BK liquidation play where he calculated the inventory, concluded it was legit, and basically bought like $2.50 in distributions for $1. It was kind of jaw-dropping to a newb like me. Of course he killed it in that contest, and he's just kept dropping gems ( macro and stocks ) on us ever since. I think he's a little uncomfortable with accolades, so I'll stop there. GFP was there too. Another tireless contributor for a very long time. I also thank the prominent posters named above. This site is pure gold.

ILPT April calls. Piggy-backing on Pupil's work.

Her best role was in Seinfeld, as a fire - breathing prima donna. Classic.

I've never understood this money management philosophy. I see it my business ( RIA). For instance I've taken over accounts with massively appreciated MSFT stock. Why the hell would I stick the client with a big tax bill, just so can put my imprint 100% on the portfolio? But that's what happens, over and over again.

Sold the $12.40 HQI shares I bought in June, for $22 today. Shameless brag. Still own a ton of it.

Thanks for posting this, Viking. Do you have ideas on how to play the metals side of this thesis?

Dang it, Deal. This is some serious contrarian thinking. If you are right, there will be Cisco-esque stock massacres coming in these two areas. I remember the Cisco debacle vividly. They were an unstoppable beast, and everyone's darling....until they weren't. (To his credit, Chambers at one point did note the absurdity of his stock's valuation). As an aside, this sort of thinking - call it the generalist approach- is more important in my opinion than the 'spreadsheet approach,' to use Gregmal's derisive term. It doesn't matter how well you crunch numbers if you miss the big picture. I think about this issue a lot. If you are a good generalist, you can do very well without having deep technical skills. The reverse is not true. Of course, the true greats do both. Like Buffett. Some of the contributors here are in that camp, I dare say.

This is a superb summary. Thanks. More evidence of the need to be humble about predictions....at least in my case. I'm stunned at XI's reversals.

Took a solid drubbing. -16.6%. CASH, JOE, and HQI - big positions all- were down 20% +. I was fully invested when the downturn hit- d'oh. A tough year. International Petroleum (IPCO.TO) was the bright spot, up 100%. Kudos to those who made money this year- well done.

Greg, you really hate that guy! It's hilarious. The Cathy Woods of the world are easy to spot and avoid. But Einhorn seemed legit. And so did Berkowitz. I recall seeing a picture of Berkowitz with an open shirt and sort of night-club look- in an official photo- and thinking, whoa, something is wrong here. What happened to the nerd Berkowitz? And sure enough, he had lost his way. Burry seems like another one who's gone a bit bonkers. All of this is fun but not meaningful. The ideas posted and debated on COBF offer far more opportunity than culling the ideas of the 'gurus.'

Man. That's hard do even if you tried.

As usual, Wabuffo is on to something. Prof Siegel says it too. Housing costs are being overstated, which massively distorts the picture.

https://thepoliticalinsider.com/report-41-of-small-businesses-cant-pay-rent-this-month/ This is hard to believe - 41% of small businesses can't pay rent?

Thanks. Great perspective.

XI has seemingly boxed himself in, not wanting to lose face by reversing the 0- COVID policy. It's a lose-lose scenario: open up, and the health care system is ravaged ( they are way short on hospital beds); or, stay closed, and infuriate the public / crush the economy. Two terrible choices, driven by bad policy. Buy maybe that's too easy of a narrative. Even China is capable of pivoting. Thus, this Asia Times article rings true. China is not so stupid as to continue this policy indefinitely. So.......over the next few months: Loosen controls Import working vaccines for the elderly ( see the German connection) declare the current wave 'just another flu' declare victory https://asiatimes.com/2022/11/protests-hasten-chinese-exit-from-zero-covid-policy/

https://neckar.substack.com/p/the-hustler-lessons-from-a-young

<The goal of investing is to have intellectual purity. > No wonder Buffett likes Combs so much.

Down 20%, call it 6 out of 10 on the pain scale. 20 years ago, I wouldn't have flinched. Would have been 1 out of 10. This morning I convinced myself my holdings can't go much lower- they're on average probably 50% undervalued. Famous last words!

Bill: Could you clarify one more thing. Your central premise, I believe, is that federal budget surpluses (or insufficient deficits) lead to recessions. Is that your prediction now? It seems these conditions are in place to create that recession; yet you feel we are 'talking ourselves into one,' i.e., it doesn't need to happen. What do I have wrong? Thx for all the green eyeshade work, it's very interesting.