Libs

This is the mirror image of what happened in 1982. Even after Volker had reduced inflation to 4%, the 10 - year yielded 10% for a while. (What a buy that would have been!). In essence, the market had little faith in Volker. Now, inflation is 8%...... and the 10- year yields 2%. The market has complete faith in Powell.

HQI limit order hit at $14.70

SCHW - again. Thank you, Mr. Market.

BC. Stupid cheap at $75

SCHW the ultimate interest rate play

https://faridaily.substack.com/p/now-were-going-to-fck-them-all-whats?s=r Fascinating article. Russian elites are angry at the west - not Putin. Forget about regime change, folks....

I laughed.

More HQI.

OP wrote: <The amount invested would be somewhere in the region of 1-2% of my current portfolio> So yeah, it won't cost much.

Go for it, just don't charge anything. That way, it's a no-lose proposition for both of you: If he makes money, you helped him out. If he doesn't, you make him whole, and it was a fine gesture at minimal cost. This is a good idea, as long as you don't take a cut.

Ditto.

Thank God for Buffett and Munger.....who would never pass on an opportunity because of a macro fear. I would be broke if I hadn't instilled that philosophy years ago.

<The Fed will begin to at least taper and set the stage for stopping its buying sometime in 2022. That means some very heavy Treasury security issuance (with little to no Fed buying) is coming.> How much treasury issuance has the fed been soaking up? Something like a third? And that's predominantly on the short end, right?

HQI yesterday.

<A non-governmental medium of exchange is a critical component of that> A+ Mankind has longed for a uninflatable medium of exchange for centuries. It's downright primal. Governments are unable to provide this- they can't resist the temptation of debasement. Gold has worked better than anything, but has obvious shortcomings. Bitcoin may very well do the trick and supplant gold. Sometimes I think Bitcoin's origins are so bizarre - an nine- page white paper from a mysterious, anonymous source -that critics can't get over it. It sounds like a bad movie script. There is also a resistance- a mental block, almost - that a non-government currency can even work (or should be allowed). But previous moneys seem bizarre too- seashells, cattle, salt, beads. What really matters is acceptance, security, scarcity, and portability. BTC might solve all of those. The distractions about blockchain, and the altcoins mania, just muddy the waters. They are both irrelevant. For a long time I've been hearing that a better version will come along. What properties would it have that bitcoin lacks?

Thanks. Looks like the 10- year would have to crack 3% to make money on this. Seems reasonable.

<I have put on all of my TLT LEAP put positions> Wabuffo- such a great thread. Thanks. Regarding this - I've dabbled in these previously and they seem pretty expensive considering how little volatility there is in TLT. Are you going out to 2023 or 2024, if I may ask?

Funny you mention that. We sold our house in that same area, also in 1970, for $40,000 and moved to a small town in Nebraska. $40K was a fortune to us. (The house we bought in Nebraska cost $9,000..... and our neighbors later teased us for overpaying). I believe that house we sold is now worth $5MM. D'oh!

IPCO.TO Oil only needs to stay here* for them to keep printing money. Ridiculously cheap. Good management. * And I think the climate cult could drive oil MUCH higher.

The simplified version is, if all goes well, they'll be growing over a million pounds of weed in a few years, at a cost of $150 a pound. A pound of cannabis in CA goes for $2,000 a pound now. Market cap is under $500MM now. Small, obviously very speculative position. There's a thread. My contention is CA will not suffer from oversupply and the selling price will hold up.

GLASF

Greg, I think you are in your 30's, so it's entirely rational for you to swing big. You can easily make it up if you're wrong. I had a cast-iron stomach for risk... but at 59 my max is now just 10%. You know the saying of old golf pros- " I left an ounce of blood in every hole." After so many three-foot par putts, their nerves aren't what they were. That's me. Having a 40% position tank would probably rattle me now. And, I've had enough surprises to wonder if there are many 'sure things.' I'm in awe of bartenders who will bet their last $1,000 on a horse, and investors who will risk their retirement on a single position. Great topic.

Agreed. Even Barron's repeatedly ignores the undistributed earnings of the stocks, which are significant. For years when BRK was 15X Barrons was reporting 25X. Ridiculous. I am a fan of the look-through method noted elsewhere here.

I should be applauding you!

The SCHW puts doubled and the TLT calls were an 8-bagger. Talk about being right for all the wrong reasons.....