Libs

More CASH, at 3X what I paid a year ago. 10% position now.

>I know of two other physicians who were there from the US, fully mRNA vaccinated - both got symptomatic disease. Scores of Astra Zeneca vaccinated folks who died or are in the hospital critically ill. A significant chunk under 50 years. A new variant, the double mutant strain, appears to be behind a lot of this. Flights have been flying out the entire last month, now taking this strain across the world. < Doc Really sorry for your loss. What's going on there is unimaginable. Regarding the above, this is not what is being reported....we are told the vaccines are effective against new strains. Hopefully we'll get some decent data on this soon. From what I can tell, Moderna, Pfizer and JNJ shots have not been given in India, which leads me to wonder if we really know if they protect. Ugh.

Sure!

Wabuffo This is interesting. Hard to see if their current edge in technology lasts. But the CEO has a good record of growing & selling off businesses.

When Buffett is gone, BRK might sell at a discount to book, like most conglomerates. I'd be surprised to see P/B expand from here.

I'm a fan too. I was at a conference a few years ago and got talking to a couple of JPM guys. Two things they said about working for him: 1) Every time you walked into an elevator, you'd better be ready in case Dimon showed up. He'd ask that one piercing, difficult question during the elevator ride. 2) If you were on a project he would say " What do you need" and give it to you. Then halfway through, if you were coming up short, he'd say, "What do you need to get this done," and he'd give it to you. And then if you didn't get it done....you were gone.

GBTC is currently at a 6% discount to BTC. I believe that's unprecedented.

Here's a good site to track & project herd immunity. The U.S. is ~115 MM from past infections and vaccinations. We're getting there! https://covid19-projections.com/path-to-herd-immunity/

Bring back Gregmal.

Up 48% in 2020; 15% CAGR since 2005. We unexpectedly hit critical financial mass in 2020. We no longer need to work, although we have no plans to stop either. To see your NW vault like this is surreal. Then again I'm 59, so the snowball has been rolling a long time. I feel no small measure of survivor's guilt over all of this, given how brutal COVID has been for many. 2020 was mostly just good cloning. Contrary to another poster, I find this site a gold mine of ideas. These were the drivers: CASH (thx Wabuffo) XPEL KNOP (thx Wabuffo) GBTC RUTH

CASH = Metabank. Still has a long runway in prepaid cards. A bank with a 1.5% ROA even in this environment. Could even go to 2%. On the speculative side, SSPK = Weedmaps. The stock might explode when the SPAC is completed; this is a pure play, SAAS 'sell shovels to miners' play. Unique in the Cannabis space.

<Third, you use Greg's comments about adapting. Unlike public corporations and public money managers, their records are exactly that...public. Greg may be full of shit and hasn't outperformed anyone other than Dane Cook. No offense Greg...just saying! > Kind of a cheap shot, Sanjeev. Greg posts real-time buys and sells here, with good - to - great results. His thought process is well-documented. I have little doubt he's got a good track record.

<Exactly. And its clear as day and has been for a while. Which is why its baffling to me how absurd some people behave with respect to what is obviously a speculation but also quite clearly defined...as you touch on above. You really cant risk 1% of your NW for something like that? You have to wonder wtf people are thinking. You play conservative with big bets/investments...sure. Absolutely makes sense. But 1-2% or so?!?! Yea, go nurture that 1% and compound it safely at 5% a year(probably too aggressive a figure TBH). Enjoy having 2% in 15 years lol....> Exactly. A few years ago BTC dropped from $1,000 to ~$200. When I learned that Bitcoin had already rallied massively to new highs three times from such declines, that was stunning; and IMO set bitcoin apart from other 'bubbles'. PI wish I'd put 1% into it then, instead of buying just a handful. Even though I figured there was a 95% chance it went to zero, the upside was so insane it was irresistible. I'm sure the poker players on this site get this.

SSPK - WeedMaps

Greg: Re ARKG....the July 2021 puts offer 10/1 if ARKG retraces to March re-Covid levels ($34). I own some July 21 $65's. Pretty good risk / reward for some gambling money.

The first patient to get the vaccine was patient 1a. The second patient to get the vaccine was patient 2b or not 2b. Credit: CapCities Radio This deserves some love.

I think that's a swell idea. I ran it by Parsad and he likes the idea. He'll have it up and running with the new site in January.

Complex topic indeed. 1) I have a friend who clearly needed help, and would have been a good client (meaning she would have taken advice, had reasonable expectations, etc.) But ....SHE didn't want to do business we're friends. She then got burned by a scumbag broker who put her in annuities. 2) Some of my clients have become close friends over time. I'm quite comfortable with that. It just makes me want to do better for them. 3) Regarding the opposite of 2, though- - friends first, client next - for me it depends on the length and depth of the friendship. Example 1 was not a close, long-term friend. But if my close friends of 30 years asked me to manage their money, it would feel weird. I trust my gut on these things. Also given example (1) I would refer them to someone I trust next time. Or at least try too. Good topic. Maybe we should have a category for those of us who manage money - where we can commiserate and exchange ideas. For example, a thread on crazy client stories would be fun.

BPCAP, would it be possible to share your reasoning behind this so that we can learn from your perspective? ...Most are holding out on the belief that banks can return to a "normal" 1% return on assets/10% return on equity. Won't happen without a lasting steepening of the yield curve. Governments can't let that happen. Japan and Europe are bust if borrowing rates even double to 2%. And governments won't let that happen, especially if a rise in rates is due to inflation. Debt and deflation (which are rising) also lower the odds over time of a meaningful rise in real interest rates. And with low rates around the world, U.S. rates can't meaningfully rise. I have a problem with the "governments won't let interest rates rise" narrative. Yes, governments NEED rates to stay low. They needed that in Zimbabwe. They needed that in 1920's Germany. But they didn't get it. The Fed is telling us they will stop at nothing to generate inflation. The same way they told us in the 1980's that they would stop at nothing to STOP inflation. Why don't we believe them? So if they get inflation up to 3%, then nobody is buying a long term bond paying 1%. Except the government itself, I guess. And if they keep monetizing their debt indefinitely, we are heading down the path of Weimar Germany and Zim. The thing about this inflation averaging is it reflects an amazing amount of hubris by central bankers. Yeah, we'll just get inflation up high enough and turn off the taps. Sure. People forget the economic pain inflicted by Volcker in the early years. Govt's can keep short term rates low, but will have a really hard time keeping long term rates low without outright market manipulation and debt monetization. It seems to me inevitable that the yield curve will steepen as we emerge from this recession. I don't know if that will be later this year, or 3 years from now. But it will happen. Caveat: a couple of decades ago I took a course in Macroeconomics. That's the extent of my expertise on the subject. I'm just trying to apply common sense, which I know is dangerous when it comes to this topic. +1

<We also have Buffett on record repeatedly saying he needs to keep only $20B cash on hand for covering insurance needs and he could use the rest for acquisitions/investments. Though I agree that Buffett's actions during the last decade seem to belie this.> Exactly. So why would Buffett be so disingenuous about such a huge issue? He's been saying one thing ( "we have all this spare cash and I'm frustrated we can't find anything") and doing another ( managing the portfolio to match liabilities) for a VERY long time. What's the upside to this - dare I say - deception? He's not the type to do this to string along investors ( by implying the next elephant is around the corner). I'm baffled.

Shorted TSLA at the open. 1% position. Willing to lose 100%; i.e. will cover at $3200 / share but otherwise will be sticky. I just couldn't take it any more!

I know energy has been a graveyard, and I have zero expertise here, but are we not setting things up for a big move up in oil prices? Capex has been slashed, and massive numbers of wells shuttered. Can the spigot really be turned back on that fast when demand returns? Morgan Stanley issued a $190 price target a while ago for these very reasons.

The decline in NA rig counts is stunning. 70-85% YOY. https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/rig-count-overview

Great contributions,and I enjoyed your self-deprecating humor. Thanks.

Thought-provoking as usual, Pupil. Thanks. Wouldn't one of these non-callable preferreds do the trick too? WFC-L ( currently yielding around 5.5%) BAC-L ( ditto) This was a good primer on preferreds, by the way, from an old thread ( the writer recommends these two preferreds): http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2017/03/a-value-opportunity-in-preferred-stocks/