Libs

Hey GFP. I know, me too. The funny thing is, I sold XPEL at 1/3 its current price in my IRA; but I kept all the shares in my taxable account because I didn't want the tax bill. (Sold half of those today). Had the whole position been in my IRA, I would have been totally out at much lower prices. Ironic.

Upthread there was a discussion of reserve currency. Dalio put together an impressive study of the rise and fall of empires ( Dutch to British to U.S over 500 years) that ties into this. The are several key factors to consider, including military strength, education, innovation, and so forth. I found it very helpful: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/big-cycles-over-last-500-years-ray-dalio

Half of my remaining XPEL.

I know, but it's just for beer money, and completely irresistible: Everyone is (rightly) is baffled by yields dropping while we're getting 5% inflation prints; but it's been explained here on COBF that it's a temporary plumbing issue. There is no way I'm not getting some money down on this when 99% of the investing public has it wrong, and to boot, there is an end date / target to track: https://fsapps.fiscal.treasury.gov/dts/issues We're at 633B as we speak.

As Wabuffo put it: <I think that there will be a big headfake on Treasury yields (first lower, then snapback higher).> Look at the TLT recent price action. From 136 to 142 in a month. The calls expire 7/30. After that, theoretically, rates will go up again.

If this pans out, TLT July 30 $146 calls and SCHW July 30 $70 puts will be multi-baggers. Also, I'm developing a new theory. 1) Warren Buffett has mentioned making 50% annually on a small grubstake. 2) he's super competitive 3) With Stumpf disgraced, and all that bridge time freed up, he's active in this stuff to prove (1) 4) He posts here for fun (1-4) = Wabuffo is Warren Buffett. Just sayin'.

MRCWF currently about $2.70 (Mercer Glasshouse SPAC). I bought some today. If it comes down I will buy more.

Wabuffo, I promise you - no one wants you to stop posting. The vast majority of the public and financial press is under the delusion that the Fed has sent trillions into the economy. You've led the discussion pointing out this mistake. That's huge value! Personally it has made me re-think a few things. Which leads to a question. There is much talk of bubbles being blown by the fed 'printing' / low interest rates / fiscal policy. Assuming the 'fed printing' premise is overblown, to what degree do you see asset inflation (housing, stocks, etc) being driven by government policy? Is that overstated in your opinion?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/robinhood-response-to-buffett-and-munger-comments-132124035.html Cramer is eviscerating Buffett and Munger just now for their Robinhoood and ESG comments. Note the pandering from Robinhood - as if Buffett / Munger are trying to thwart young investors. They're trying to SAVE them.

More CASH, at 3X what I paid a year ago. 10% position now.

>I know of two other physicians who were there from the US, fully mRNA vaccinated - both got symptomatic disease. Scores of Astra Zeneca vaccinated folks who died or are in the hospital critically ill. A significant chunk under 50 years. A new variant, the double mutant strain, appears to be behind a lot of this. Flights have been flying out the entire last month, now taking this strain across the world. < Doc Really sorry for your loss. What's going on there is unimaginable. Regarding the above, this is not what is being reported....we are told the vaccines are effective against new strains. Hopefully we'll get some decent data on this soon. From what I can tell, Moderna, Pfizer and JNJ shots have not been given in India, which leads me to wonder if we really know if they protect. Ugh.

Sure!

Wabuffo This is interesting. Hard to see if their current edge in technology lasts. But the CEO has a good record of growing & selling off businesses.

When Buffett is gone, BRK might sell at a discount to book, like most conglomerates. I'd be surprised to see P/B expand from here.

I'm a fan too. I was at a conference a few years ago and got talking to a couple of JPM guys. Two things they said about working for him: 1) Every time you walked into an elevator, you'd better be ready in case Dimon showed up. He'd ask that one piercing, difficult question during the elevator ride. 2) If you were on a project he would say " What do you need" and give it to you. Then halfway through, if you were coming up short, he'd say, "What do you need to get this done," and he'd give it to you. And then if you didn't get it done....you were gone.

GBTC is currently at a 6% discount to BTC. I believe that's unprecedented.

Here's a good site to track & project herd immunity. The U.S. is ~115 MM from past infections and vaccinations. We're getting there! https://covid19-projections.com/path-to-herd-immunity/

Bring back Gregmal.

Up 48% in 2020; 15% CAGR since 2005. We unexpectedly hit critical financial mass in 2020. We no longer need to work, although we have no plans to stop either. To see your NW vault like this is surreal. Then again I'm 59, so the snowball has been rolling a long time. I feel no small measure of survivor's guilt over all of this, given how brutal COVID has been for many. 2020 was mostly just good cloning. Contrary to another poster, I find this site a gold mine of ideas. These were the drivers: CASH (thx Wabuffo) XPEL KNOP (thx Wabuffo) GBTC RUTH

CASH = Metabank. Still has a long runway in prepaid cards. A bank with a 1.5% ROA even in this environment. Could even go to 2%. On the speculative side, SSPK = Weedmaps. The stock might explode when the SPAC is completed; this is a pure play, SAAS 'sell shovels to miners' play. Unique in the Cannabis space.

<Third, you use Greg's comments about adapting. Unlike public corporations and public money managers, their records are exactly that...public. Greg may be full of shit and hasn't outperformed anyone other than Dane Cook. No offense Greg...just saying! > Kind of a cheap shot, Sanjeev. Greg posts real-time buys and sells here, with good - to - great results. His thought process is well-documented. I have little doubt he's got a good track record.

<Exactly. And its clear as day and has been for a while. Which is why its baffling to me how absurd some people behave with respect to what is obviously a speculation but also quite clearly defined...as you touch on above. You really cant risk 1% of your NW for something like that? You have to wonder wtf people are thinking. You play conservative with big bets/investments...sure. Absolutely makes sense. But 1-2% or so?!?! Yea, go nurture that 1% and compound it safely at 5% a year(probably too aggressive a figure TBH). Enjoy having 2% in 15 years lol....> Exactly. A few years ago BTC dropped from $1,000 to ~$200. When I learned that Bitcoin had already rallied massively to new highs three times from such declines, that was stunning; and IMO set bitcoin apart from other 'bubbles'. PI wish I'd put 1% into it then, instead of buying just a handful. Even though I figured there was a 95% chance it went to zero, the upside was so insane it was irresistible. I'm sure the poker players on this site get this.

SSPK - WeedMaps

Greg: Re ARKG....the July 2021 puts offer 10/1 if ARKG retraces to March re-Covid levels ($34). I own some July 21 $65's. Pretty good risk / reward for some gambling money.

The first patient to get the vaccine was patient 1a. The second patient to get the vaccine was patient 2b or not 2b. Credit: CapCities Radio This deserves some love.