what are you selling today?

[no_free_lunch]

I feel I need to de-risk my portfolio a bit.  Probably the best thing to do is simply move to cash.  However, I have to ask if anyone sees any good puts for general portfolio protection?  In other words, what is very overpriced, will get hammered in a general economic slowdown and has leaps available?

[gjangal]

Sold some EPAM to bring down position size. Sold TCEHY and PLCE

[Spekulatius]

Sold off half my LBRDA. It seems to have outperformed CHTR ( which I own as well).

[aws]

Sold all my COKE (the bottling company).  Almost a double YTD and had to cash that in, then it went up another 4% after that.

[woltac]

AAPL & LBRDK, both purchased in late December/early January. 

[Lance]

Shorted VBK.  Closed SMH short. 

 

Thanks

Lance

[Castanza]

Shorted VBK.  Closed SMH short. 

 

Thanks

Lance

 

Curious on your thesis for shorting VBK?

[Lance]

Hi Castanza - am anticipating volatility and lower prices over the next 6 months, but don’t want to  part with anything and I’m already sitting on a pile of TLT.  I think VBK has more downside than the S&P 500.  Also, will short SMH again and add to XHB short on future increases.

 

Thanks

Lance

[bskptkl]

MFCB

 

Finally!

 

I have owned this dog for 3 long ugly years. Avg price >$10. Had too much, so couldn't stomach averaging down when it was in the $4s six months ago. Held off selling until opening today (luck, was trying yesterday - just didn't get filled), and scale sold all the way up. You know that feeling when you don't care if buyers make money from here? I don't care that I am selling at <60% of "book" value. Good riddance MFCB and Michael Smith.

 

This company reminds me a bit of the Dumbdees - "good" resource related Canadian investor goes bad; no really, really bad. Epic destroyer of capital, hubris, etc.

 

I suppose there should be a lesson in this for me. I don't mind investigating these train wrecks. I love the volatility. They do have potential for multi-bagger gains from the lows. I've done better in Dumbdee - maybe because I started with the preferreds, started smaller and traded around the position several times.

[bizaro86]

MFCB

 

Finally!

 

I have owned this dog for 3 long ugly years. Avg price >$10. Had too much, so couldn't stomach averaging down when it was in the $4s six months ago. Held off selling until opening today (luck, was trying yesterday - just didn't get filled), and scale sold all the way up. You know that feeling when you don't care if buyers make money from here? I don't care that I am selling at <60% of "book" value. Good riddance MFCB and Michael Smith.

 

This company reminds me a bit of the Dumbdees - "good" resource related Canadian investor goes bad; no really, really bad. Epic destroyer of capital, hubris, etc.

 

I suppose there should be a lesson in this for me. I don't mind investigating these train wrecks. I love the volatility. They do have potential for multi-bagger gains from the lows. I've done better in Dumbdee - maybe because I started with the preferreds, started smaller and traded around the position several times.

 

Agreed. I did well on MFCB (bought at $5, sold at $8.50) but felt at that time the margin of safety wasn't there anymore. Obviously sold way too soon. Completely agree on management here, although they do seem to be doing the right things right now - simplifying balance sheet, paying off debt, focusing on the iron ore royalty. I actually think the name change they announced (to "scully incorporated") is potentially a big deal. Its stupid that matters, but I think Canadian mining investors will be more comfortable buying it if the royalty is right in the name. If they made it a pass through (like LIF) there would still be big upside from here.

[Cigarbutt]

Hi Castanza - am anticipating volatility and lower prices over the next 6 months, but don’t want to  part with anything and I’m already sitting on a pile of TLT.  I think VBK has more downside than the S&P 500.  Also, will short SMH again and add to XHB short on future increases.

 

Thanks

Lance

Hi Lance,

In this cycle, I have parked a variable amount of "excess" cash in TLT.

An argument could be made that it is becoming increasingly reckless to invest in "risk-free" long-term bonds with a shorter-duration mindset but what else is new?

In a 1999 investors' expectations article, Mr. Buffett quipped that if one thought that the US was becoming like Japan, the way to go was to buy options on bonds. He also "expected" that the Dow Jones would return about 6% over time.

 

In that article, he compared the return (total return, per year) of a government 30-yr bond to the Dow Jones (1981-1998).

30 yr-bond: 13% (!)

Dow Jones: 19% (!)

 

Since then:

30-yr bond: 7.8%

S&P: 5.4%   

 

1981 to now:

30-yr bond: about 10%

stock index: about 11%

 

Further easing would likely put the 30-yr bond back in the leading position and I wouldn't want to be in charge of a pension fund right now.

[Spekulatius]

MFCB

 

Finally!

 

I have owned this dog for 3 long ugly years. Avg price >$10. Had too much, so couldn't stomach averaging down when it was in the $4s six months ago. Held off selling until opening today (luck, was trying yesterday - just didn't get filled), and scale sold all the way up. You know that feeling when you don't care if buyers make money from here? I don't care that I am selling at <60% of "book" value. Good riddance MFCB and Michael Smith.

 

This company reminds me a bit of the Dumbdees - "good" resource related Canadian investor goes bad; no really, really bad. Epic destroyer of capital, hubris, etc.

 

I suppose there should be a lesson in this for me. I don't mind investigating these train wrecks. I love the volatility. They do have potential for multi-bagger gains from the lows. I've done better in Dumbdee - maybe because I started with the preferreds, started smaller and traded around the position several times.

 

That feeling of relief and joy, when pigs in the portfolio fly, is priceless!

[John Hjorth]

Reduced position a bit in NOVO B.CPH [NVO][in my father's account], to buy BRK.B, combined with pulling money off the table [money, that will never end up on the table again, but that will be allocated to one of his "high interest rate" accounts at Bank Norwegian ASA or Santander Consumer Bank ASA - those accounts are not part of my defined AUM].

 

I'm trying here to reduce risk.

[SmallCap]

sold the last of my TSLA Puts for 100+% gain in the last year.

Decided to leave the drama behind but this probably means I am leaving money on the table.

[Gregmal]

Sold 10% of my BX. Still cheap, but I think short term its overshot.

[Castanza]

Sold 75% of my HSY - Hershey position. Merely profit taking as it was my best performer this past year. Cost average was 95ish and sold today for 136. My thesis hasn't changed much on the company in general, but this rapid ramp up in price made me want to take some profits.

 

Edit: Tariff tensions are making me a bit uneasy with HSY. The three Mexican plants are quite important in supporting the North American supply chain. I'm uncertain how tariffs will affect the NA segment. NA makes up about 89% of HSY market where Brazil, MX, China, India make up most of the remaining market share. India is their fastest growing international market.

 

One thing I do like is Hershey owns all but 2(located in Georgia and NY) manufacturing plants. And in general, their products are manufactured in the marketplace which they will be selling. This helps reduce risk somewhat. Noticed a large surge in $125 August puts today and figured, might as well take profits. Honestly, this has been one of my best plays.

 

Link to the 10-k if anyone was interested. Don't think I've seen this stock covered on here.

 

https://www.thehersheycompany.com/content/dam/corporate-us/documents/annual-reports/2019-proxy-statement.pdf

[gokou3]

Sold LBRDA and CHTR over the past few days.  It may be a stupid decision as CHTR is on the cusp of gushing FCF, but I have made good returns on them in 16 months so I think there could be better opportunities in the rest of the Liberty empire and the rest of the market.  Sitting on about 30% cash at the moment.

[Gregmal]

Trimming CRSP.

[Saluki]

Sold off more than half of my Alliance Data (ADS) shares.  When they sold off a big chunk of their business at an okay price and it still didn't move the needle for them I started getting tired of waiting.

 

As I get more concerned about the economy, a company that has credit card receivables starts to look less attractive when you can pick up some BRK at under $200 (Buffett was buying back shares at a little more than this price last quarter) and FRFHF and Fairfax India at decent prices too, and they tend to scoop up bargains when it gets ugly on the street. 

[Spekulatius]

Sold DIS. I think it is fully valued.

[Lance]

Shorted TSLA

 

Thanks

Lance

[TorontoRaptorsFan]

Sold DIS. I think it is fully valued.

 

I think the price is going much higher. They're going to have excellent subscription numbers for the Disney+ channel. More Blockbuster movies on the way including Toy Story 4, Star Wars Episode 9, Frozen 2, and Lion King.

[Spekulatius]

Sold DIS. I think it is fully valued.

 

I think the price is going much higher. They're going to have excellent subscription numbers for the Disney+ channel. More Blockbuster movies on the way including Toy Story 4, Star Wars Episode 9, Frozen 2, and Lion King.

 

Possibly true. I am mostly worried about ESPN.

[Spekulatius]

EXO.MI, FCAU, FRA.DE

[bizaro86]

Sold DIS. I think it is fully valued.

 

I feel the same way about their valuation. But every single time I've sold something I believe to be an excellent business for that reason I've regretted it, so I'm holding for now.