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what are you selling today?


muscleman

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42 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Sold my $QLYS. Unfortunately only a starter position.


Curious about your exit?   I’ve got it on my list to begin research as it seems to be a solid compounder by the numbers.  Did the story change or your research find something to deter you?

 

Thanks

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12 minutes ago, Value_Added said:


Curious about your exit?   I’ve got it on my list to begin research as it seems to be a solid compounder by the numbers.  Did the story change or your research find something to deter you?

 

Thanks

QLYS is solid, but it looks a bit expensive for the low teens growth it has. I bought it early this year on the dip after the LT CEO left. It gained ~45% for me, so has performed better than I expected. I had it in my IRA so no tax friction either.

 

I know, I know  - let your winners run is the mantra, but I try to stick to my valuation framework and rather keep turning more rocks. In the past, I would not even have bought a stock like this, so either I have learned something, or Mr Market has been very kind. It's probably a little ,bit of both.

Edited by Spekulatius
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54 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

QLYS is solid, but it looks a bit expensive for the low teens growth it has. I bought it early this year on the dip after the LT CEO left. It gained ~45% for me, so has performed better than I expected. I had it in my IRA so no tax friction either.

 

I know, I know  - let your winners run is the mantra, but I try to stick to my valuation framework and rather keep turning more rocks. In the past, I would not even have bought a stock like this, so either I have learned something, or Mr Market has been very kind. It's probably a little ,bit of both.


What in your valuation framework has changed that enabled you to find this as a buy during their dip?  Do you look strictly at multiples and adjust your entry price to a higher multiple based on how good the business is?  It obviously worked out great for you.  I came across QLYS a while back and found it too expensive (at face value based on a quick and dirty valuation without any real due diligence) so I didn’t research further.  I added it to my crash list and I plan to begin researching it soon.  I love getting insight from others’ methodologies in an attempt to better my framework.  I’m relatively new to this so I’m trying to be a sponge and narrow down what works for my brain.

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30 minutes ago, Value_Added said:


What in your valuation framework has changed that enabled you to find this as a buy during their dip?  Do you look strictly at multiples and adjust your entry price to a higher multiple based on how good the business is?  It obviously worked out great for you.  I came across QLYS a while back and found it too expensive (at face value based on a quick and dirty valuation without any real due diligence) so I didn’t research further.  I added it to my crash list and I plan to begin researching it soon.  I love getting insight from others’ methodologies in an attempt to better my framework.  I’m relatively new to this so I’m trying to be a sponge and narrow down what works for my brain.

Yes, I buy this based on multiples basically. My valuation works includes looking at FCF yield and looking at comps, Then I look at it qualitatively to make sure there are no red flags.

In Qualys case, I found a fairly profitable software company operating in a niche sector with not that much competition growing in the teens. I bought it at a below 9x P/S multiple when it temporarily sold off due to some soft quarter and the long term CEO leaving to health reasons. I felt it‘s buyable but not extremely cheap, so I just bought a starter position. I actually had an opportunity to buy it even cheaper but missed the very narrow window of opportunity so just kept my small position.

 

The way I look at it with a low teens organic grower, with a 45% return in less than a year, I got 3 years worth of growth in one year and that’s a good deal from Mr Market.

If the stock had gone up just 15%, I would have kept it because I feel the intrinsic value has gone up by a similar amount, so there would have been no reason to sell in that scenario.
 

Anyway, that’s just my operating framework. 

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59 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Yes, I buy this based on multiples basically. My valuation works includes looking at FCF yield and looking at comps, Then I look at it qualitatively to make sure there are no red flags.

In Qualys case, I found a fairly profitable software company operating in a niche sector with not that much competition growing in the teens. I bought it at a below 9x P/S multiple when it temporarily sold off due to some soft quarter and the long term CEO leaving to health reasons. I felt it‘s buyable but not extremely cheap, so I just bought a starter position. I actually had an opportunity to buy it even cheaper but missed the very narrow window of opportunity so just kept my small position.

 

The way I look at it with a low teens organic grower, with a 45% return in less than a year, I got 3 years worth of growth in one year and that’s a good deal from Mr Market.

If the stock had gone up just 15%, I would have kept it because I feel the intrinsic value has gone up by a similar amount, so there would have been no reason to sell in that scenario.
 

Anyway, that’s just my operating framework. 

Makes a lot of sense and thanks for sharing.

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Sold the portion of Fairfax that was above what I really want to own longer term.

 

Probably too early, but the thesis when not being able to resist averaging down about a month ago was that a 15-20% bounce was almost certain to happen at some point. The bounce happened. Trying to be more disciplined and not allowing thesis creep.

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