what are you selling today?

[Milu]

53 minutes ago, Paarslaars said:

 

Tax on capital gains in Belgium is 0 (so far), government is looking into it though.

Quite the outlier in Europe. Wonder what the background is on that, has there ever been a cgt tax in Belgium before, and is there some other rules where they end up getting their cut somehow? Might make more sense for the wealthy Europeans to start moving to Belgium rather than Monaco or Switzerland!

[Paarslaars]

There are certain limitations. Basically they don't want to tax the good household dad. So if you hold stocks for +/- 1 year or longer, gains are not taxed. If you do more speculative trades, it is taxed in theory but in practice only if you make enough money with it that the tax department notices.

 

Dividends are taxed at 30% though.

[lnofeisone]

Shorted some UNG calls.

[Kizion]

14 hours ago, lnofeisone said:

Shorted some UNG calls.

 

Interesting, could you share your thesis? Too much run up in past weeks? 

Looks still on lowish side if you zoom out a few years (excluding the peak due to UK-RU). 

Edited January 17 by Kizion

[lnofeisone]

5 hours ago, Kizion said:

 

Interesting, could you share your thesis? Too much run up in past weeks? 

Looks still on lowish side if you zoom out a few years (excluding the peak due to UK-RU). 

I opportunistically short UNG. Usually my set up is simple. Nat gas needs to be in backwardation, run up 30-40% from the lows (first short tranche) or 100% from the lows (second short tranche), and UNG needs to start rolling its contracts (which they started yesterday). 

 

I hold the short for about a week (sometimes longer if it runs away) because that's roughly how long it takes for UNG to sell its front-month and reload on future months. 

 

If all 3 things are true, I have a good betting average on these shorts. Incidentally, this trade worked out faster than I thought so I closed most of the position. 

[backtothebeach]

Sold FIH.U. Damn this is illiquid, took all day.

[LC]

22 minutes ago, backtothebeach said:

Sold FIH.U. Damn this is illiquid, took all day.

Really think it is fully valued even at 18? 

[backtothebeach]

16 minutes ago, LC said:

Really think it is fully valued even at 18? 

Probably not. But I had good profits on an average cost of around $12, and I still have exposure through FFH. Wouldn’t be opposed to buying it back around $16, if it keeps bouncing around like it has in the last years.

[LC]

Fair enough - I too had a similar cost basis but sold in the 15s. And I have been waiting to re-enter in the 12/13 range but it will probably not happen. 

[Spekulatius]

Reduced $BTI today. It did alright for me.

[mananainvesting]

Sold some $CNH

[Hsmpanl]

55 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Reduced $BTI today. It did alright for me.

Just taking advantage of the run up or think it’s approaching fair value? Thought about trimming today too but didn’t. Still seems undervalued relative to MO and PM. Mostly been trimming MO as it has run up to mid-50s.

[fareastwarriors]

34 minutes ago, Hsmpanl said:

Just taking advantage of the run up or think it’s approaching fair value? Thought about trimming today too but didn’t. Still seems undervalued relative to MO and PM. Mostly been trimming MO as it has run up to mid-50s.

 

 

I still holding my whole basket of tobacco companies...

 

 

 

 

[whatstheofficerproblem]

Sold NVDA puts for a healthy profit, could have made much more if I waited through the day, but I know better than to get greedy with options.

[Spekulatius]

2 hours ago, Hsmpanl said:

Just taking advantage of the run up or think it’s approaching fair value? Thought about trimming today too but didn’t. Still seems undervalued relative to MO and PM. Mostly been trimming MO as it has run up to mid-50s.

I think it’s approaching fair value. The 7.5% dividend is nice, but it’s not growing much. The volume losers continue. that said, ai would happily buy this again in the low thirties. Have gotten two good trips out of it

[frommi]

6 hours ago, fareastwarriors said:

I still holding my whole basket of tobacco companies...

 

4 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

I think it’s approaching fair value. The 7.5% dividend is nice, but it’s not growing much. The volume losers continue. that said, ai would happily buy this again in the low thirties. Have gotten two good trips out of it

From a technical point i would argue that BTI has just broken out and can run a lot higher now, especially if the tech slump continues. (look at what happened 2000->2008). 5% earnings growth over the longer term is still respectable when your stock trades at a PE of 8.5. I only sold out of MO because that looks like the weakest and least diversified/future proof of all tobacco stocks, but still have >30% of my portfolio in BTI,PM,IMB and STG.

Edited Tuesday at 05:21 AM by frommi

[Saluki]

13 hours ago, frommi said:

 

From a technical point i would argue that BTI has just broken out and can run a lot higher now, especially if the tech slump continues. (look at what happened 2000->2008). 5% earnings growth over the longer term is still respectable when your stock trades at a PE of 8.5. I only sold out of MO because that looks like the weakest and least diversified/future proof of all tobacco stocks, but still have >30% of my portfolio in BTI,PM,IMB and STG.

 

I have a 1.5% position in BTI and a 1% in PM.  I like both and I'm holding but I think they are in that weird place where I wouldn't buy more, but I think they are still underpriced so I don't want to sell either. 

 

I trimmed a little GOOG, which I keep doing whenever it crosses 20% of my non-retirement portfolio.  I still like it, but I don't think I would want more than that in any company because, as we've seen, even companies like META can get cut in half in very short time when the narrative turns against them.  

[Hsmpanl]

15 hours ago, frommi said:

 

From a technical point i would argue that BTI has just broken out and can run a lot higher now, especially if the tech slump continues. (look at what happened 2000->2008). 5% earnings growth over the longer term is still respectable when your stock trades at a PE of 8.5. I only sold out of MO because that looks like the weakest and least diversified/future proof of all tobacco stocks, but still have >30% of my portfolio in BTI,PM,IMB and STG.

Altria looks more fairly valued to me as well and I sold most of what I had. I’m 5% BTI and 3% PM.
 

BTI fcf can decline at a 4% cagr from here and still be ~10% IRR. Not buying more at $39 but not ready to sell yet either.

[Spekulatius]

Sold remaining shares in BABA at a satisfactory return.

[backtothebeach]

On 1/24/2025 at 7:28 PM, backtothebeach said:

Sold FIH.U. Damn this is illiquid, took all day.

Well apparently only market makers are allowed to fuck around with the bid-ask spread... Got a message from IB about a regulation UMIR 2.2 – Manipulative and Deceptive Activities, asking me to refrain from such. I had bid up FIH.U a few cents, and the new bid was promptly matched with more volume, I suppose by the market maker. Then I canceled my bid and hit the increased bid with a hidden sell order.

 

Don't the HTFs do this all day long?? Maybe not in Canada.