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Posted

For those who want to do the opposite of me to take advantage of the trading curse, I sold all the ENPH in my taxable accounts.  Enjoy the double from here 🙂

 

By the way, last year I bought a little MELI and quickly sold for a 20% profit because I thought it was overpriced.  Even after yesterday's 16% drop, I would be up more than 100% if I did nothing but sit on my hands. 😭🤣

Posted

I have been riding on the Berkshire train for 25 plus years, holding through ups and downs. It has always been a huge percentage of my total investments, and buying over the years on selloffs and holding has resulted in returns about 3.5% above the S&P 500. The only shares sold during this time were those required after recently placing our first taxable shares purchased in a charitable remainder trust.

 

In the past few weeks, I've been selling off Berkshire in IRA accounts. Lowest cost basis $32.xx. Is it an attempt at market timing? To be honest with myself, I would have to answer yes, remembering the period between early 2008 and 2009. But now gliding through my 7th decade and financially secure, I no longer feel the need to be fully invested. Is Berkshire ever likely to be priced at 2x book again? Who can say? But My guess is 1.3 is more likely.

 

Disclosure: I'm a mediocre trader as proven over a long time period.

Posted (edited)
47 minutes ago, Masterofnone said:

I have been riding on the Berkshire train for 25 plus years, holding through ups and downs. It has always been a huge percentage of my total investments, and buying over the years on selloffs and holding has resulted in returns about 3.5% above the S&P 500. The only shares sold during this time were those required after recently placing our first taxable shares purchased in a charitable remainder trust.

 

In the past few weeks, I've been selling off Berkshire in IRA accounts. Lowest cost basis $32.xx. Is it an attempt at market timing? To be honest with myself, I would have to answer yes, remembering the period between early 2008 and 2009. But now gliding through my 7th decade and financially secure, I no longer feel the need to be fully invested. Is Berkshire ever likely to be priced at 2x book again? Who can say? But My guess is 1.3 is more likely.

 

Disclosure: I'm a mediocre trader as proven over a long time period.

Berkshire isn't buying back its own stock so that might explain at current bv Warren and team think its expensive 

Edited by Junior R
Posted

I'm too lazy to do the exact cost averaging between all the lots, but the original shares from 2000 are ~11.3% (vs ~7.9% from the S&P) and for example shares purchased late January 2021 come in at about 22% vs ~15% from the S&P over the same time-frame. I purchased many many times over the years when the shares became cheap. (Know what you own.)

Posted (edited)

After holding Altria for 7 years (and adding a lot on the drops in between)  i finally sold out. Think it is fairly valued here and you don't get compensated for all the risks the business faces at this point in time. (IQOS, illicit vapes, pouches taking over, regulation, heavy volume declines etc.). Given all the shit that has happened after i started buying it was a satisfying investment that beat the market over the past 3 years. Still own big positions in BATS, IMB and PM.

Edited by frommi
Posted

Today I sold PH in a taxable account.  Had bought in June of 2022.

 

I know...I know...it is the roaring 20's and all and ole deal dawn't sell.  But there's things I'm eyeballin' with some eagerness (don't ask...you'd find them outrageously boring) given everybody is racing to the 50% off sale on Wall Street.  😉

 

 

Posted

Sold East west Bank. Phenomenal bank (don't think you'll ever see NPA assets at 25 basis points!) and great CEO. I bought last year during the Silicon valley bank crisis and it was a quick double. I have mixed feelings on selling, want to hold for many years but at 2x TBV feel is getting expensive..

 

Posted
13 hours ago, This2ShallPass said:

Sold East west Bank. Phenomenal bank (don't think you'll ever see NPA assets at 25 basis points!) and great CEO. I bought last year during the Silicon valley bank crisis and it was a quick double. I have mixed feelings on selling, want to hold for many years but at 2x TBV feel is getting expensive..

 

 

Interesting. I too bought EWBC last year after SIVB went belly up, but haven't sold any yet. I have lightened up considerably on other US banks - C, JPM, BAC, GS etc - since I have about 20% of my portfolio in this sector. 

Posted
12 hours ago, treasurehunt said:

I too bought EWBC last year after SIVB went belly up, but haven't sold any yet.

Why are you holding while selling other banks, just sheer quality? I read some reports last week w Dimon saying you should sell a bank at 2x TBV and also Buffett unloading on BAC. East west is not growing that fast and that's one of the reasons I felt 2x TBV might be getting expensive..

Posted

I sold out of GOOGL in multiple accounts. I've been losing some sleep weighing the long term impact of AI search results versus Google search. The DOJ cases mounting just add to the unease and I don't think all of these negatives are priced in compared to October 2022 when I established the position.

Posted

Sold out of a basket of durables:

 

DE

JCI 

TT

CARR

GGG

OTIS

SSD

CRH

 

AOS was in that basket and I increased the position substantially.

Posted
On 12/1/2024 at 1:51 AM, This2ShallPass said:

Why are you holding while selling other banks, just sheer quality? I read some reports last week w Dimon saying you should sell a bank at 2x TBV and also Buffett unloading on BAC. East west is not growing that fast and that's one of the reasons I felt 2x TBV might be getting expensive..

 

Well, big banks such as BAC and JPM are quite constrained when it comes to growth, I think. EWBC has a chance at growing faster than these behemoths. But the main reason I kept EWBC while lightening up on BAC and JPM is that it is not as overvalued as these two in my estimation. Defining IV as the price where I can expect a 10% annual return going forward, I have BAC valued at $36, JPM at $200 and EWBC at $105. Of course it is entirely possible that my estimate of IV is off by quite a bit.

 

Also, take a look at past growth in book value per share for these banks (I use growth in BV per share as a proxy for growth in IV per share).

 

  Annual Book Value Per Share Growth
  BAC JPM EWBC
Since 2013 5.11% 7.44% 11.48%
Since 2018 6.12% 8.95% 10.89%

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