Paarslaars Posted March 18 Posted March 18 (edited) Also sold FFH, bringing my position from 15% to 9%. Wanted to reduce my margin a bit. Edited March 18 by Paarslaars
Luke Posted March 18 Posted March 18 5 hours ago, frommi said: Sold FFH after my thesis has played out and the stock has re-rated. Don't like betting on further multiple expansion. 26b marketcap and 4b operating income for 4 years+. Thesis is still at the beginning of playing out
Saluki Posted March 18 Posted March 18 Trimming a little Scorpio Tankers. I added 10% to my position about a year ago between $40 -$44 when it looked like a good setup. (I mentioned it on the STNG post at the time). I'll keep the earlier/cheaper shares but trimming this back to my original position.
ASTA Posted March 19 Posted March 19 Sold exor bought at 26 and still negative on market so bought more PE funds for half and building small 5% cash same reason as in 2021 bought an expensive car at the end of 2021. And now I want to buy an expensive motorcycle “I am to happy” so selling stocks that’s what my senses are telling me.
frommi Posted March 19 Posted March 19 13 hours ago, Luca said: 26b marketcap and 4b operating income for 4 years+. Thesis is still at the beginning of playing out Yes, but only half of the story is written and only interest income is fixed for 4 years. What if insurance goes into a soft market now that every insurance company can get higher rates? And what if interest rates are much lower in 4 years, dont you think the market will anticipate that? Its all rosy now. I bought @ 0.5x bv and thought that around 1-1.1 is a good target (because that is where FFH was priced for a very long period of time), so at the moment the next year of income is also priced in at 1.2 x bv. If you are a long term holder just ignore me and stay the course .
Luke Posted March 20 Posted March 20 (edited) On 3/19/2024 at 10:50 AM, frommi said: Yes, but only half of the story is written and only interest income is fixed for 4 years. What if insurance goes into a soft market now that every insurance company can get higher rates? And what if interest rates are much lower in 4 years, dont you think the market will anticipate that? Its all rosy now. I bought @ 0.5x bv and thought that around 1-1.1 is a good target (because that is where FFH was priced for a very long period of time), so at the moment the next year of income is also priced in at 1.2 x bv. If you are a long term holder just ignore me and stay the course . There are so many catalysts, Fairfax India, Eurobank, further capital allocation of the really significant cashflow compared to market cap, EVEN if underwriting slightly declines. If they are successful, Fairfax will look very different in 5–10 years compared to now. It's hard to find this ability of compounding in any other stock for a decent price. I'd maybe start selling the stock from my monstrous position at 40-50b marketcap. Still a buy here honestly. Edited March 20 by Luca
Luke Posted March 20 Posted March 20 If you are talking about margin of safety, yes it is less here, but the overall market is way worse. If you can find something a lot more attractive i would of course understand selling
Gregmal Posted March 20 Posted March 20 Eh I disagree. If he was going from 100% exposure to 75%…I agree selling Fairfax here is dumb. But when you’re playing with margin anything over that 100% exposure marker is money that’s not yours so you do what you gotta do.
Luke Posted March 20 Posted March 20 (edited) 1 minute ago, Gregmal said: Eh I disagree. If he was going from 100% exposure to 75%…I agree selling Fairfax here is dumb. But when you’re playing with margin anything over that 100% exposure marker is money that’s not yours so you do what you gotta do. I didnt know he deleveraged from margin. In that case, yes, i understand. Edited March 20 by Luca
Viking Posted March 20 Posted March 20 (edited) On 3/18/2024 at 8:02 AM, frommi said: Sold FFH after my thesis has played out and the stock has re-rated. Don't like betting on further multiple expansion. @frommi congrats on your investment in Fairfax. I suspect many people on this board are sitting on pretty spectacular gains and wondering what to do. One of the keys to investing is to have a plan and then (usually) stick to it - and not keep moving the goal posts. My thesis with Fairfax has evolved over the past couple of years. The quality of the insurance business is higher than I thought (and getting better - I think). The quality of the equity holdings is also getting better (the dogs keep shrinking in size each year). Significantly extending the duration of the fixed income portfolio in 2023 was a big deal. The kicker is the size and quality of operating earnings is large and largely set for the next 4 years. When I weave it all together I think Fairfax deserves to trade at a higher multiple than it has over the past 10 years - 1.3 x BV on the low end. The fundamentals just keep getting better and better - that has been a surprise for me. I am just finishing a post on non-insurance consolidated holdings (coming in the next day or two). I think that bucket is the next coiled spring that is set to go off. Similar to what happened with 'share of profit of associates' a couple of years ago. Perhaps we see a new $400 million and growing earnings stream as soon as 2025? I am modelling $200 million in 2025. That is not on anyones radar right now. My point is there are still lots of different tailwinds. BV was $930 at Dec 31, 2023. Let's assume BV grows $150 in 2024 and 2025 (subtracting $15 dividend). That would get us to a BV of $1,230 at Dec 31, 2025. Apply a 1.3x BV multiple (at the low end in my mind) and we get a stock price of $1,600 in 24 months. Including dividends, that would deliver a return of 45%. Pretty solid return over 2 years. I don't think these are particularly aggressive assumptions. There are also a number of wild cards. One that intrigues me is @SafetyinNumbers speculation of what happens if Fairfax gets added to the Canadian benchmark index in 2024 or 2025. I think indexing is only going to become a bigger phenomenon in the coming years - so the lift to Fairfax's stock if it was to get added could be significant. The key risk today (company controlled) is capital allocation - after a couple of very good years, does hubris set in (again)? Not a concern today - but something I am monitoring. My post is not to try and talk anyone into not selling down a position. People sell for all sorts of reasons. The spike in Fairfax has taken most of us by surprise. I am still trying to understand what it all means. And yes, I have a big smile on my face as I think about it. Edited March 20 by Viking
Saluki Posted March 28 Posted March 28 Sold the small position I had in NEP for about a 20% profit since the end of last year. The dividend is yielding 12% and if interest rates go down it could do really well. But if they don't, the new solar projects will be more costly and they will have to finance them at a higher interest rate, so I took the quick win and added to my other positions.
Spekulatius Posted March 28 Posted March 28 Reducing $C more and sold a bit of $DFS too in tax deferred accounts.
Saluki Posted April 3 Posted April 3 Sold a few shares of SFL. I wanted to wait a year so I don't have to pay short term capital gains, but I wanted to add to NTDOY on the dip today.
DooDiligence Posted April 3 Posted April 3 Sold DIS, half taxable / half non ($103ish cost) and consider myself lucky. You can't dream a business into what you want it to be.
coffeecaninvestor Posted April 8 Posted April 8 Sold DEO. This was a new position so I was able to get out with a small profit. I felt it might not be cheap enough given the low growth, and facing some LT headwinds.
throw123 Posted April 9 Posted April 9 10 hours ago, coffeecaninvestor said: Sold DEO. This was a new position so I was able to get out with a small profit. I felt it might not be cheap enough given the low growth, and facing some LT headwinds. username checks out
coffeecaninvestor Posted April 9 Posted April 9 U 8 hours ago, throw123 said: username checks out Ultimately I was having trouble finding a decent idea for my coffee can portfolio DEO kind of fit the bill but didn't check all the boxes and I had a surplus of funds and needed to find two ideas this year. Usually I am only looking for one idea a year in the coffee can portfolio. A smaller cap company that checks more of the boxes after not having looked at it in a few years seemed more attractive so I decided to swap for it.
Paarslaars Posted April 10 Posted April 10 (edited) Sold my prosus calls today, bought them because I thought the drop to 25€ due to the chinese gaming regulation announcement was bullshit, sold now they crossed the 30€ mark today. Edited April 10 by Paarslaars
Luke Posted April 10 Posted April 10 1 hour ago, Paarslaars said: Sold my prosus calls today, bought them because I thought the drop to 25€ due to the chinese gaming regulation announcement was bullshit, sold now they crossed the 30€ mark today. Nice call.
Red Lion Posted April 22 Posted April 22 Sold FG which just went long term a few months ago. And bought back my $50 calls. Like most of my other recent sales, this was not a value call, but just raising capital for renovations on a private real estate investment.
Spekulatius Posted April 25 Posted April 25 Sold most of my DFS yesterday. I think the merger with COF will be blocked and I expect DFS to fall from current levels (~$130 sales price).
yesman182 Posted April 26 Posted April 26 22 hours ago, Spekulatius said: Sold most of my DFS yesterday. I think the merger with COF will be blocked and I expect DFS to fall from current levels (~$130 sales price). Any specific reason you think it will be blocker? Or simply that they seem to want to block everything including two handbag companies.
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