What are you buying today?

[shhughes1116]

Bought some Superior Industries (SUP). 

[hasilp89]

16 minutes ago, shhughes1116 said:

Bought some Superior Industries (SUP). 

Any view on how TPG gets handled?

[Saluki]

I've been buying a little GOOGL for the past several days and I plan to keep doing that and overweight it and sell when the market hysteria about the court decision fades away. 

 

Bought a bigger slice of OXY this morning.  I think if I take a few big bites here it will work out well and I can either keep it or just sell the same amount of shares over $60 and offset some of my winners for tax purposes. I hate doing it with margin, but I don't plan on being overweight in it for more than a month, which I have to hold it for to prevent the wash sale rules from kicking in. 

[fareastwarriors]

OXY

[shhughes1116]

6 hours ago, hasilp89 said:

Any view on how TPG gets handled?

My forecast….   In Summer 2025, SUP uses a combination of cash and debt - maybe $100 million cash and $200 million in new debt - to redeem the preferred shares.  Maybe there is some negotiation between SUP and TPG that brings it under $300 mil.  But I can’t see any reason why TPG would settle for much less than $300 mil, especially given the debt stack was refinanced so there is not a going concern issue that would donut their holding of common. 

 

This reminded me a little bit of WHLR with the onerous preferred terms.  However, I think SUP is a little bit better positioned to deal with the preferred.  

[boilermaker75]

6 hours ago, Saluki said:

I've been buying a little GOOGL for the past several days and I plan to keep doing that and overweight it and sell when the market hysteria about the court decision fades away. 

 

Bought a bigger slice of OXY this morning.  I think if I take a few big bites here it will work out well and I can either keep it or just sell the same amount of shares over $60 and offset some of my winners for tax purposes. I hate doing it with margin, but I don't plan on being overweight in it for more than a month, which I have to hold it for to prevent the wash sale rules from kicking in. 

 

Same here, GOGL and OXY. A few weeks ago I was writing MCD puts to acquire some but never got put to before MCD started taking off. Second time this has happened to me with MCD

Edited August 21 by boilermaker75

[Spekulatius]

I did add a bit more PLX (Pluxee) on Monday.

[lnofeisone]

Sold OXY puts and bought OXY calls. 

[Libs]

On 8/20/2024 at 12:46 PM, gfp said:

I'm going to wait a day or two but I'm hoping to get short the TLT around $100/share.  Probably through October options.  We might even get a quick breakout above 101 but we are coming into some very persistent seasonal trends where no matter what the fundamentals indicate - interest rates have been rising end of august through september pretty regularly.  It will come as a nice surprise with all eyes on the rate cutting cycle.

 

Probably will find some cheap out of the money puts to express it but I may figure out a different plan.  Micro treasury yield futures are pretty user friendly.  Now let's just get her up above 100!

 

Interesting idea. The TLT puts are cheap. What are these seasonal factors?

[Spekulatius]

13 minutes ago, Libs said:

 

Interesting idea. The TLT puts are cheap. What are these seasonal factors?

I think it is related to tax cash flows which tend to be early in the year. So net cash flow for treasury is more negative in the second  half which means more treasury issues leading to higher interest rates . 

[gfp]

51 minutes ago, Libs said:

 

Interesting idea. The TLT puts are cheap. What are these seasonal factors?

 

I'm not sure anybody knows what the underlying causes are - but for several years there has been a brief seasonal bias for rising market interest rates from late August through late September or early October.  Not just in the US treasury market, but in many developed sovereign debt markets.

 

One risk is that I am certainly not the only one to expect this phenomenon to repeat itself.  It's sort of like a Farmer's Almanac of interest rate seasonality I suppose.

 

I like the fact that it goes against the prevailing focus on the rate cutting cycle.  If it occurs it would probably fully un-invert the 10-2 yield curve which is already close to even -

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y

 

I haven't put the trade on yet - I am hoping for one more breakout on TLT prices / break-down in TNX rates to fake out market participants.

 

We'll see - YMMV

 

edit:  I asked ChatGPT, the great wizard of trading ideas for the last 6 years:

"

Here are the changes in the U.S. 10-year Treasury note yields from the lows in August to the highs in October for each of the past six years:

1. 2023: The yield increased from a low of 4.17% in August to a high of 4.80% in October.
2. 2022: The yield rose from a low of 2.90% in August to a high of 3.98% in October.
3. 2021: The yield went up from a low of 1.28% in August to a high of 1.58% in October.
4. 2020: The yield slightly increased from a low of 0.65% in August to a high of 0.79% in October.
5. 2019: The yield increased from a low of 1.47% in August to a high of 1.86% in October.
6. 2018: The yield rose from a low of 2.82% in August to a high of 3.25% in October."

Edited August 22 by gfp

[Castanza]

OXY

[gfp]

3 minutes ago, Castanza said:

OXY

What's the expected timing of this 30m share secondary offering?  I would have expected an announcement that it had closed (with pricing details) by now?  

[Castanza]

23 minutes ago, gfp said:

What's the expected timing of this 30m share secondary offering?  I would have expected an announcement that it had closed (with pricing details) by now?  

 

10-Day AV has been about ~3.5m higher than the 90-day AV and now is trending lower; but as you said without an announcement your guess is as good as mine.

[gfp]

Just now, Castanza said:

 

10-Day AV has been about ~3.5m higher than the 90-day AV and now is trending lower; but as you said without an announcement your guess is as good as mine.

 

I thought this was an offering - all at once - and not some type of at-the-market deal.

[Castanza]

32 minutes ago, gfp said:

 

I thought this was an offering - all at once - and not some type of at-the-market deal.

Yeah that's correct but I was under the impression secondary offerings can still show up in trading volume? If not my mistake. 

[Charlie]

10 hours ago, gfp said:

I'm not sure anybody knows what the underlying causes are - but for several years there has been a brief seasonal bias for rising market interest rates from late August through late September or early October.  Not just in the US treasury market, but in many developed sovereign debt markets.

 

One risk is that I am certainly not the only one to expect this phenomenon to repeat itself.  It's sort of like a Farmer's Almanac of interest rate seasonality I suppose.

 

I like the fact that it goes against the prevailing focus on the rate cutting cycle.  If it occurs it would probably fully un-invert the 10-2 yield curve which is already close to even -

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y

 

I haven't put the trade on yet - I am hoping for one more breakout on TLT prices / break-down in TNX rates to fake out market participants.

 

We'll see - YMMV

 

edit:  I asked ChatGPT, the great wizard of trading ideas for the last 6 years:

"

Here are the changes in the U.S. 10-year Treasury note yields from the lows in August to the highs in October for each of the past six years:

1. 2023: The yield increased from a low of 4.17% in August to a high of 4.80% in October.
2. 2022: The yield rose from a low of 2.90% in August to a high of 3.98% in October.
3. 2021: The yield went up from a low of 1.28% in August to a high of 1.58% in October.
4. 2020: The yield slightly increased from a low of 0.65% in August to a high of 0.79% in October.
5. 2019: The yield increased from a low of 1.47% in August to a high of 1.86% in October.
6. 2018: The yield rose from a low of 2.82% in August to a high of 3.25% in October."

 

It correlates with the historical weak stock market months September (or late August) to October.

I think the weakest month is September and than comes the big crash month October. 

Probably it has to do with the emotions of people. Summer is ending and the depressing autumn is beginning.

I hope the weak stock market months are living up to their name and all Berkshire shareholders should hope for it, too. 

 

Edited August 22 by Charlie

[[email protected]]

On 8/13/2024 at 8:58 AM, winjitsu said:

Bought heavily into $PCF today post rights-offering.

"The Fund intends to hold a special meeting of shareholders of record as of Friday, August 23, 2024, to consider proposals to approve these changes. Shortly after the special meeting, the Board intends to authorize a tender offer by the Fund to purchase at least (a) 90% of the number of shares issued in the rights offering if the proposals are adopted, or (b) 60% of the number of shares issued in the rights offering if the proposals are not adopted, at a price of at least 98% of NAV."

 

It's very likely the proposals will be adopted. NAV is around $7.17. Price is around $6.59. 

 

Impossible for me to buy a ticker $PCF which mean Parti Communiste Français (French Communist Party), infamous initials in French. With the $ before PCF, it's both ironic and antinomic. 

 

Joking apart, great find, thanks.

[Saluki]

On 8/22/2024 at 11:21 AM, gfp said:

 

I thought this was an offering - all at once - and not some type of at-the-market deal.

 

Added another 10% to my OXY position.  I'm a little overweight on it now, but will probably start trimming higher priced shares after 30 days to reduce my cost basis and offset some gains from other sales for taxes. 

[dipod]

OXY 2025 Leap Calls earlier this week 

[gfp]

11 minutes ago, dipod said:

OXY 2025 Leap Calls earlier this week 

 

Why those over the August 2027 22-strike warrants?  You wanted more leverage?

[dipod]

30 minutes ago, gfp said:

 

Why those over the August 2027 22-strike warrants?  You wanted more leverage?

How do I buy those? Although I honestly don't think I've ever bought warrants in my investing journey. My broker is not the best (very limited options, Chase).

[sleepydragon]

1 hour ago, gfp said:

 

Why those over the August 2027 22-strike warrants?  You wanted more leverage?

Curious what’s  people view about buying the warrant instead of the stock? I am thinking if OXY increases dividends over time, stock is a better buy. Or else, warrant is clearly better due to the leverage it offered.

 

[hardcorevalue]

why are you all buying Oxy instead of something better like CNQ?

[Paarslaars]

Or IPCO

 

I am guessing there is an appeal to investing alongside Buffet.