Red Lion Posted February 7 Posted February 7 6 minutes ago, Viking said: CFP.TO Back under C$15. Canfor is trading at about $250/1,000 board feet of capacity. West Fraser recently made a purchase at C$900/1,000 board feet. Not really an apples to apples comparison but i think it is at least a little instructive. Time to dust off my old files on lumber companies. It is pretty much a given that central banks will be cutting rates, likely around mid year. What sector should benefit the most? Housing. Demand: Canada has a serious housing shortfall. My guess is the US also will need to increase the amount they are currently building in the coming years. Supply: lumber production will continue to decline in BC. Yes, it will continue to increase in the US South. Imports of lumber from Europe could be a risk. But an increase in new housing starts might start to tighten the market. It will depend on how much new home starts increase. Why Canfor? It looks to me to be the cheapest of the big boys. West Fraser is the best managed (IMHO). This is a trade for me; not a long term hold. The problem? No near term catalyst. Might be dead money for a while. And the stock could continue to fall. I view it as a 6-12 month hold/trade. I am in no hurry. The payoff? Lumber is one of the most volatile commodities. Up and down. If a catalyst shows up the whole sector will rocket higher. Interfor releases earnings tonight. Probably will not be great. Do you do these swing trades in a tax advantaged account?
Viking Posted February 7 Posted February 7 (edited) 2 hours ago, RedLion said: Do you do these swing trades in a tax advantaged account? Yes. Tax free compounding is the 9th wonder of the world. Much better than the 8th (compounding that is taxxed). In Canada we have so many good options: TFSA, RRSP, LIRA, LIF RESP to pay for kids education. And now FHSA for first time home buyers. Time + tax free compounding, and pretty soon you are talking about real money. Young kids in Canada have never had it so easy to get financial independent. I suspect most will largely miss it - by not getting on it early. Edited February 7 by Viking
Dinar Posted February 7 Posted February 7 40 minutes ago, fareastwarriors said: BTI I'd be careful here. 10% volume declines in the US business are serious business. I was hoping that it'd stop in 2023, but it has continued in 2024.
RichardGibbons Posted February 7 Posted February 7 6 hours ago, Viking said: Supply: lumber production will continue to decline in BC. Yes, it will continue to increase in the US South. Higher imports of lumber from Europe could be a risk; something to monitor. But an increase in new housing starts might start to tighten the market. It will depend on how much new home starts increase as rates start to come down. One other potential wrench is the likelihood of the provincial government giving Indigenous people a veto over forestry use. This is under consultation now, and I wouldn't be surprised if it moves ahead this year. A court decision back in 2021 resulted in the same thing for parts of Alberta and northern BC. I know someone who works in forestry up there, and that decision has led to Indigenous people extorting the lumber companies. On top of that, the government is clawing back rights to privately manage forestry land to transferring those rights to First Nations tribes. As a result, the lumber companies up there have stopped harvesting on government-own land for the last couple years. So, to sensibly model BC lumber companies, I think one probably has to dramatically reduce both volume and profitability for at least five or six years. Since it's a competitive global market, I think there's a decent chance it'll kill most of BC's forestry industry. In any case, one would expect margins in BC operations to be much lower in perpetuity than the past and increased risk.
Eldad Posted February 8 Posted February 8 2 hours ago, Dinar said: I'd be careful here. 10% volume declines in the US business are serious business. I was hoping that it'd stop in 2023, but it has continued in 2024. US Combustible is what 30% of sales? I would think that is more than priced in at this price.
Dinar Posted February 8 Posted February 8 4 minutes ago, Eldad said: US Combustible is what 30% of sales? I would think that is more than priced in at this price. If I am not mistaken, the US business is 50% of EBIT, and I would guess that 90-95% is cigarettes.
Eldad Posted February 8 Posted February 8 2 hours ago, Dinar said: If I am not mistaken, the US business is 50% of EBIT, and I would guess that 90-95% is cigarettes. That looks to be correct. So call it 48% of the business is melting on a volume basis while still providing higher profits annually. 52% is growing in volume and profit. Non-combustible reaching profitability this year and growing quickly. 6x earnings still seems more than priced in.
Dinar Posted February 8 Posted February 8 19 minutes ago, Eldad said: That looks to be correct. So call it 48% of the business is melting on a volume basis while still providing higher profits annually. 52% is growing in volume and profit. Non-combustible reaching profitability this year and growing quickly. 6x earnings still seems more than priced in. Don't forget there is a lot of debt, if I remember correctly, L 40bn, now you do have a stake in ITC that is worth around L 15bn, but if you look at it on EV/EBIT basis, the multiple is not cheap 6x EBIT or 8x post tax.
Spekulatius Posted February 8 Posted February 8 Also bought just a bit of PARA so I stay interested in the soap opera. Added a few shares of PM premarket (earnings looked alright to me). I bought a starter in KWS.DE (seed company) as well on a weak earnings report. They did keep the annual forecast but we will see.
tnathan Posted February 8 Posted February 8 42 minutes ago, KJP said: William Penn Bancorporation SMART - this is going back to book when they start buying back all the shares
mjm Posted February 8 Posted February 8 2 hours ago, Spekulatius said: Also bought just a bit of PARA so I stay interested in the soap opera. Added a few shares of PM premarket (earnings looked alright to me). I bought a starter in KWS.DE (seed company) as well on a weak earnings report. They did keep the annual forecast but we will see. what's you thoughts on SDF? kinda same business. nice balance sheet.
Spekulatius Posted February 8 Posted February 8 55 minutes ago, mjm said: what's you thoughts on SDF? kinda same business. nice balance sheet. SDF - Kali & Salz is a totally different business (salt mines). They are a high cost producer in this commodity space (Belarus and the Canadian potash mines are low cost producers) so I don’t think it’s an attractive business. KWS is family controlled and it’s the 4th largest seed producer in the world and the only publicly traded pure play. It’s a unique business with lots of IP and deep barriers to entry. KWS plows 18-19% of their revenues into R&D . The third largest seed producer is the French Vilmorin and they went private a year or so ago.
sleepydragon Posted February 8 Posted February 8 FRFHF sold at 820, now back in at 920 last time when I sold at 820, my pregnant wife was so angry she almost want to kill me.
dwy000 Posted February 8 Posted February 8 58 minutes ago, CorpRaider said: Comcast that's 2 days in a row. You must have quite the position at this point.
CorpRaider Posted February 9 Posted February 9 (edited) 14 hours ago, dwy000 said: that's 2 days in a row. You must have quite the position at this point. Nah, I'm a retail piker, but I am thinking of running it up to like 10% of my modest TNW. Although, I wouldn't be shocked if they make a bid for someone and the stock craters right after I fill up. Edited February 9 by CorpRaider
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