n.r98 Posted July 12, 2022 Share Posted July 12, 2022 Heavy insider buying at $ARKR, anyone has some snap thesis/pitfalls on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red Lion Posted July 12, 2022 Share Posted July 12, 2022 Bought back my January 2023 KKR $60 PUTS for a loss then wrote $47 puts for July 15 2022. I'm hoping to either get PUT the stock, or at least be able to generate some options income on these super short term puts while the volatility is so high.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boilermaker75 Posted July 13, 2022 Share Posted July 13, 2022 (edited) Wrote BRKB July 15 expiration, 270-strike puts for >$1. Edited July 13, 2022 by boilermaker75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AzCactus Posted July 13, 2022 Share Posted July 13, 2022 FAST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red Lion Posted July 13, 2022 Share Posted July 13, 2022 Rolled my 7/15 $47 KKR PUTS to the 7/22 $46 strike for the same premium. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monsieur_dee Posted July 13, 2022 Share Posted July 13, 2022 Brk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dinar Posted July 13, 2022 Share Posted July 13, 2022 (edited) On 7/11/2022 at 4:13 PM, Gregmal said: I dont care for management but this was shook up via the previous activist campaign and its essentially a low hanging fruit for an acquirer or future activist. Jersey City and Park Ridge are absolutely good assets given the supply constraints for the great NYC region. Especially the suburbs. I know the Morristown area especially well, and thats similar to Park Ridge. There's takers for these assets all day long, 8 days a week. Office is what I hate. Land I like but theyre trying to unload it. Ill have to stomach the vomit inducing woke verbiage for a bit, but I think from these levels this is super interesting vs at $17 it was good enough for a smaller position but also not unique enough to pound the table. What I'd watch and dislike is the idea these guys think theyre gonna grow a MF REIT. Get the fuck outta town LOL. Especially with your shares at 40% NAV. Greg, what do you think the company looks like in 2023? I think that 2023 will look as follows: a) Office + hotel + development gone b) Debt + repurchase obligations ($532MM) = $1.25bn on 12/31/2022 c) Existing stabilized multifamily = $140-$145MM of EBITDA d) Haus25 = $40MM rent roll and $28MM of EBITDA e) Park ridge = $5MM of EBITDA f) s/o + all opco units + options = 100MM g) Fair value of our interest in joint ventures = $250MM h) Corporate SG&A = $20MM per annum. Please let me know if I am missing something or you disagree Edited July 13, 2022 by Dinar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted July 13, 2022 Share Posted July 13, 2022 30 minutes ago, Dinar said: Greg, what do you think the company looks like in 2023? I think that 2023 will look as follows: a) Office + hotel + development gone b) Debt + repurchase obligations ($532MM) = $1.25bn on 12/31/2022 c) Existing stabilized multifamily = $140-$145MM of EBITDA d) Haus25 = $40MM rent roll and $28MM of EBITDA e) Park ridge = $5MM of EBITDA f) s/o + all opco units + options = 100MM g) Fair value of our interest in joint ventures = $250MM h) Corporate SG&A = $20MM per annum. Please let me know if I am missing something or you disagree I’m driving so at quick glance your figures are in the right ballpark. NAV range is like 23-32, IMO. The key assumptions I think you have to make involve the dispositions and pace thereof. Then there’s reinvestment in idk. I’m not entirely sold on the credibility of this being a worthy long term investment. But from here into year end, as long as multifamily stays solid which it will, you’ve got a good risk reward skew. During that time you pay attention to management and see if they earn some trust. I have not really been impressed so far. They’re pretty unspectacular. I wouldn’t say bad, just nothing special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dinar Posted July 13, 2022 Share Posted July 13, 2022 9 minutes ago, Gregmal said: I’m driving so at quick glance your figures are in the right ballpark. NAV range is like 23-32, IMO. The key assumptions I think you have to make involve the dispositions and pace thereof. Then there’s reinvestment in idk. I’m not entirely sold on the credibility of this being a worthy long term investment. But from here into year end, as long as multifamily stays solid which it will, you’ve got a good risk reward skew. During that time you pay attention to management and see if they earn some trust. I have not really been impressed so far. They’re pretty unspectacular. I wouldn’t say bad, just nothing special. Thank you, I agree with you. My biggest fear is lousy capital allocation and high SG&A. I guess there is always a chance that Jonathan Gray comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted July 13, 2022 Share Posted July 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Dinar said: Thank you, I agree with you. My biggest fear is lousy capital allocation and high SG&A. I guess there is always a chance that Jonathan Gray comes in. Everyone public traded, with good MF assets, hears the big boy footsteps coming for them. They wake up in the middle of the night screaming “sold to Blackstone!”. Additionally Bow street already did much of the heavy lifting. CEOs previous job got taken out as well. I think it’s a good play at $12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
perulv Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 On 1/27/2022 at 7:44 PM, perulv said: Lam research (LRCX). Maybe buying these semiconductor stocks right now is catching a falling knife, but great businesses decent price etc. "All" the q4 results in my portfolio looked the same yesterday, "higher earnings, but supply chain", and they are all down 5-10% today. On 1/27/2022 at 9:00 PM, Spekulatius said: I don't think it's supply chain issues that are whacking the stock. I believe the concern is about waning demand. TER just had a hiccup where demand wasn't as expected. This can happen very quickly in the semi equipment space. Perhaps this time is different. Certainly the industry cycles have mellowed out somewhat, but I don't think they are entirely gone, especially in Semi equipment. Also, the insiders and employees know when the jig is up before any of us do. LRCX is down 25% since this. If I click the buy(more)-button it will probably go down another 25%, but I just cant help salivating over the long term metrics. Great business on sale, or mean reversion of too-good-to-be-true ROA and growth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WFF Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 Added some more BAC. Might pick up some more 01658:hk especially if it breaches 5 HKD mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blugolds Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 (edited) Wrote BRKB puts, July 22 exp, 260 strike, over a buck. Edited July 14, 2022 by Blugolds11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Agrippa07 Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 added to IAC and Dis today. From Tuesday: new position in Oxy and added to Ishares energy etf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 More PSTH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seoshin Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 On 7/12/2022 at 2:44 AM, ourkid8 said: Bought a starter position in BAM with the proceeds from RFP. May I ask whats your thesis with BAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seoshin Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 Anyone buying MKL? It is currently trading at historical book value per share Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 Bought some USB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Williams406 Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 JOE, Altius, Pantheon Resources, BRK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Viking Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 (edited) Canadian oil juniors: MEG, WCP, ERF, TVE Earlier today MEG was off 8%. Oil finished the day flat. Oil stocks are getting crushed and oil is… trading at $96. Oil companies are raking in the free cash flow. Moving forward more and more of the significant free cash flow will be going to share buybacks. And with the shares getting crushed that will be a very good use of cash. This is a very good set up for shareholders. Edited July 14, 2022 by Viking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WFF Posted July 14, 2022 Share Posted July 14, 2022 BAC, Sold Oxy 55 Puts expiring 7/15 for 0.45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ourkid8 Posted July 15, 2022 Share Posted July 15, 2022 9 hours ago, Seoshin said: May I ask whats your thesis with BAM? Look... (As Bruce Flatt says before every statement) 1. Significant amount of capital waiting to be deployed. The current market environment provides management an opportunity to take advantage of market dislocation. Here is one large acquisition they just announced today: https://www.reuters.com/business/deutsche-telekom-announces-175-bln-euro-sale-tower-business-2022-07-14/ 2. Uses 25-30% of it's own capital to invest alongside clients to ensure interests are aligned. This gives me some comfort they will be cautious to not overpay for acquisitions 3. Real estate: High quality spaces are highly sought after and rents are up ~30% pre-pandemic 4. Superstar management team with a goal to compound at 20% going forward 5. Macro view on inflation: When there is inflation, revenue increase greater than expenses and more drops to the bottom line and over time it compounds. Inflation is very positive for real assets. I can keep on going but BAM is a undervalued high quality company who owns core backbone infrastructure which can compound at high rates for decades. Its my favourite type of business to own. btw: I just added to my position earlier in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WFF Posted July 15, 2022 Share Posted July 15, 2022 bought me some 1658:hk under 5 HKD. Hopefully Mr. Market continues to discount the merchandise today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted July 15, 2022 Share Posted July 15, 2022 VRE, JOE, EPSN adds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnp20 Posted July 16, 2022 Share Posted July 16, 2022 @WFF Care to share your thesis on 1658.HK ? I am curious ....I kind of came across this today via a different route. I am looking at Ping An after a recent sell off and remembered some mention of Li Lu/Himalaya possibly owning it. I look at the 2021 Annual report for Ping An to see if he owned it but it does not show up, its possible that Ping An is so big that he is not a top 10 shareholder (usually they list only top 10 in the annual reports). However, he did get listed as a 6% holder on the Postal Savings bank of China annual report (2020 and 2021). He seems to have increased the stake slightly from 2020 to 2021 and ofcourse the recent slide has me curious. Is the slide purely due to this mortgage non-payment issues ? Its hard to believe such a huge drop over some $20M HKD exposure...would appreciate your thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now