What are you buying today?

[Castanza]

Tracker in ZIM

 

Has anyone looked at this? Basically a spot price dependent shipping company. Risk is they are subjected to spot prices but it seems they are well after securing longer term contracts. 15% dividend...CEO talking about buybacks, securing LNG ships, etc.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ZIM_(shipping_company)

 

Obviously a huge risk buying this, but with Supply Chain issues going on the next year could be worth a small speculative position. 

 

CEO in a recent podcast

 

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4480682-zim-integrated-shipping-market-updates-for-2022-podcast-transcript

 

Attached a doc with current financials 

 

 

ZIM Financials.docx

Edited February 3, 2022 by Castanza

[CafeB]

DUFRY, as Europe opens up

[Red Lion]

Added to APO.

[Castanza]

Some speculative CLF 2/11 Calls @ $0.10 Strike 22

Edited February 3, 2022 by Castanza

[JRM]

1 hour ago, Castanza said:

Has anyone looked at this? Basically a spot price dependent shipping company. Risk is they are subjected to spot prices but it seems they are well after securing longer term contracts. 15% dividend...CEO talking about buybacks, securing LNG ships, etc.

 

 

I thought I created a topic for this one, but I guess not. I bought last quarter at $52.  I don't have much to add to the shipping container discussion, but it's cheap as hell and the bet is that rates don't normalize as quickly as analysts are thinking.   Lots of cash and printing money at these rates.  Not a huge position for me.

[Castanza]

3 minutes ago, JRM said:

 

I thought I created a topic for this one, but I guess not. I bought last quarter at $52.  I don't have much to add to the shipping container discussion, but it's cheap as hell and the bet is that rates don't normalize as quickly as analysts are thinking.   Lots of cash and printing money at these rates.  Not a huge position for me.

I couldn't find it when searching "ZIM", but I also do not understand how the search function works on this site anymore..... Sitting on 1b cash right now and the CEO seems pretty motivated to secure long-term contracts which would really put a damper on the bear case. Guess we will find out soon enough. 

[Gregmal]

Now AMZN beats and the QQQs and related cos go up. A day after FB sent them all down. A day after GOOG sent them up. People have officially lost their minds. Or maybe it just happened slowly over a 10 year stretch. I find it amusing. 

[NotSoWise]

6 hours ago, NotSoWise said:

Adding to AMZN for a long term hold (5+ years). A bit risky just before earnings and still not cheap...

 

6 hours ago, throw123 said:

username checks out

 

throw123, do you think I should change my username?

As people say: "Better lucky than smart"

 

It may go up less tomorrow after people read in more details, we will see.

Edited February 3, 2022 by NotSoWise

[CorpRaider]

29 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Now AMZN beats and the QQQs and related cos go up. A day after FB sent them all down. A day after GOOG sent them up. People have officially lost their minds. Or maybe it just happened slowly over a 10 year stretch. I find it amusing. 

Smells like a stumbling bumbling drunk about to crash to me (not that I do anything based on that opinion).

[linus_md]

Opened a position in Meta.

Edited February 3, 2022 by linus_md

[Gregmal]

8 minutes ago, CorpRaider said:

Smells like a stumbling bumbling drunk about to crash to me (not that I do anything based on that opinion).

Ya I dont really think its wise to ever go in too heavy on a market timing call, but if I were to place some bear chips at the table..... tech is really kinda low reward/ high risk right now IMO. 

 

Housing, Land, Entertainment, and Energy for this old geezer. 

 

EDIT: Actually bought a starter in MCW today

Edited February 3, 2022 by Gregmal

[ourkid8]

Added to SHOP

[throw123]

9 hours ago, NotSoWise said:

 

 

throw123, do you think I should change my username?

As people say: "Better lucky than smart"

 

It may go up less tomorrow after people read in more details, we will see.

haha

[NotSoWise]

11 hours ago, CafeB said:

DUFRY, as Europe opens up

Cool to see some confirmation bias...

 

This is my largest position in the portfolio at 15%, bought it Sep2020. The price is still good and we should see more upside towards the end of 2022. Only China/ parts of Asia are still closed, but this is a very small part of the business. US and EU is pretty much open. With a bit of luck, this may end up between CHF 70 and 100 per share in 1-3 years horizon.

 

Interesting pick CafeB, not as popular as Facebook.

[formthirteen]

More 9988. I must have received some brain damage from FB's Q4 report, or maybe I'm just a value investor. What was the saying, growth and value are joined at the hip?

 

Also added to SPOT and FFH.

Edited February 4, 2022 by formthirteen

[formthirteen]

13 hours ago, CafeB said:

DUFRY, as Europe opens up

 

Can I ask what the thesis is? It's an interesting toll-booth business, but earnings where -2.5B in 2020. EV is 8B. FCF 2B, if politicians and the coronavirus let things get back to normal?

[NotSoWise]

There is a pretty good and recent VIC write up on Dufry - worth reading. Overall it is about getting back to normal after covid. It is not a forever hold/ compounder (higher and higher rents they pay at airports), but rather bounce back situation. Number of flights are mostly back (EU/ USA) with the number of passengers slowly catching up (save for China). Probably this holiday season should be reasonably close to what it used to be in the past, so Q3'22 numbers should be pretty strong. 2023 probably back to normal. They are already CF breakeven (but with temporarily lower rents, which will go up with better CF), so no bankruptcy risk. Strong minority shareholders with cash (Advent/ Alibaba), so worst case another capital raise, which I dont expect. Good thing was that not all capital raise went to dilution. Part of the money went to delist their subsidiary Hudson News in US at a low price.

[thepupil]

15 hours ago, Gregmal said:

Ya I dont really think its wise to ever go in too heavy on a market timing call, but if I were to place some bear chips at the table..... tech is really kinda low reward/ high risk right now IMO. 

 

Housing, Land, Entertainment, and Energy for this old geezer. 

 

EDIT: Actually bought a starter in MCW today

 

I'm torn on this...for a decade, I haven't owned enough tech. I've underestimated the growth runway of these truly amazing businesses and my risk asset purchasing power declined accordingly (because I didn't own enough of them).  I got the poor relative performance i deserved. 

 

Since October 2020, that has reversed markedly. I've destroyed the market and made up years of lost ground. That's continued in 2022. 

 

But that doesn't necessarily feel sustainable and ultimately i want to "cover my short" in these businesses. Is FB at 15x a better 10 year proposition than FRPH at 0.7x NAV? I would say "probably yes". Now FRPH is much lower risk and has lower variance of outcomes in my opinion, but it's probably a mistake to own 10x as much FRPH as FB which is the case with me...and yes i'll still call it FB...

 

on the other hand...the moves of the past week have also illustrated how much more comfortable i am with my NAV plays...if my NAV plays fell 25% in a day, they'd be just plain bonkers cheap...whereas most of the tech stuff is merely "flirting" with cheap or "is cheap if this good stuff continues to happen.

 

I've thought about converting 10-20-30% of the PA to index and just staying in my lane with the rest. I buy a good bit of index each month in my 401k, but the portfolio is such that it will take a while to get to a  reasonable %....

 

i don't know...i haven't really done much. 

[thowed]

1 hour ago, thepupil said:

 

I'm torn on this...

 

Amen, brother.

 

Similar situation here.  It's been pretty excruciating thinking for years, 'Well anyway, I'm too late to get in now', and then seeing another phenomenal quarter from MSFT or CSU.

 

I've put some money in a Brown Advisory fund, as being the 'US Growth' fund I'm most comfortable with: 1) 30 holdings only 2) Decent omissions - no FB, no Tesla.  But increasingly MSFT and GOOGL seem the ones that are hardest to take down - I've thought this for a while, and the past week has been another confirmation of it.  And then, I think, what edge can I possibly have with stocks like these against a lot of smart people with big teams of analysts...

 

And then, there's also the argument that if inflation & interest rate rises continue, the Growth stocks could continue to come down/decompress, and Real Estate, Energy (& Financials?) will have their day for the rest of the decade.  So perhaps this is the wrong time for you to shift. 

 

I suppose ultimately all one can do is keep an open mind, and keep looking for the one-foot hurdles.  Visa sub-200 was the only one of late that was OK for me, but they don't come along often.

[throw123]

more FB and MKL and new position in KMX

[Gregmal]

3 hours ago, thepupil said:

 

I'm torn on this...for a decade, I haven't owned enough tech. I've underestimated the growth runway of these truly amazing businesses and my risk asset purchasing power declined accordingly (because I didn't own enough of them).  I got the poor relative performance i deserved. 

 

Since October 2020, that has reversed markedly. I've destroyed the market and made up years of lost ground. That's continued in 2022. 

 

But that doesn't necessarily feel sustainable and ultimately i want to "cover my short" in these businesses. Is FB at 15x a better 10 year proposition than FRPH at 0.7x NAV? I would say "probably yes". Now FRPH is much lower risk and has lower variance of outcomes in my opinion, but it's probably a mistake to own 10x as much FRPH as FB which is the case with me...and yes i'll still call it FB...

 

on the other hand...the moves of the past week have also illustrated how much more comfortable i am with my NAV plays...if my NAV plays fell 25% in a day, they'd be just plain bonkers cheap...whereas most of the tech stuff is merely "flirting" with cheap or "is cheap if this good stuff continues to happen.

 

I've thought about converting 10-20-30% of the PA to index and just staying in my lane with the rest. I buy a good bit of index each month in my 401k, but the portfolio is such that it will take a while to get to a  reasonable %....

 

i don't know...i haven't really done much. 

Yea I mean guessing at what I can deduce, I’d gander you’re a bit more risk averse than I…but I never really think it’s a bad idea to pick at stuff in small size. Ever really. You like something a small position pretty much never hurts you. But in terms of taking size in these, I just think it pays to let some of this stuff play out a little further. I’ve never in my investing life really been one to say sit on your hands. But after the way COVID played out, and then the year 2021 was, I just get the feeling there’s potentially some hazard ahead in 2022. Lot of different stuff that can play out in a lot of different ways. The worst type of losses don’t occur for fundamental reasons but simple multiple contraction. And multiple contraction you don’t really recognize til it’s too late because it’s just a market thing where people keep the same fundamentals but just get a lower price on the dollars/growth. I could be wrong but I don’t see any of the big tech stocks doing any better than a lot of other stuff out there with easier return profiles over the NTM so my inclination is to just wait and see. Can always buy it later. They’re not going away anytime soon. The preference is always for 1 ft hurdles.

[lnofeisone]

Couldn't help myself and bought more CVE-WS. 

[james22]

5 hours ago, thowed said:

 

Amen, brother.

 

I'd think many value investors have to be thinking the same.

 

But I'm fine being (mostly) out of Tech today. If we undergo a real Value rotation, there's no hurry.

 

But I'll look for the opportunity in a way I haven't in the past.

[james22]

While might sound odd, I like BRK more than a US Growth/Tech  fund or index for such exposure.

 

They've admitted they've missed great companies at fair prices in the past so they're looking for opportunities, they've demonstrated a willingness to invest big when they find one, and they've the cash to take advantage.

 

And better positioned in Value until an opportunity presents itself.

[Castanza]

BABA