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Posted
On 1/27/2022 at 10:12 AM, boilermaker75 said:

 

I wrote some Jan 28 expiration, 47.5-strike puts for $0.31.

 

I bought back the Jan 28 expiration, 47.5 strike puts for $0.67 and sold the Feb 11 expiration, 46-strike puts for $1.06

Posted (edited)

Took some trading profits

 

Starter position is good ole Disney

 

Also curious re: the previous comment on Belpointe OZ re tax deductions. Per their whitepaper you can invest capital gains realized from any investment from the prior 180 days, into OZ, and claim a tax deduction on those - not realizable for the lesser of 10 years or when you sell OZ? 

 

Why not take all my cap gains over the last 5 months of 2021 - buy OZ for that amount, sell OZ a few days later, and defer that entire taxable amount to 2022? Could I then repeat the process in another 180 days? 

 

wp here: https://belpointeoz.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Opportunity-Knocks-White-Paper-1.22.2022.pdf

Edited by LC
Posted
On 1/27/2022 at 9:00 PM, Spekulatius said:

I don't think it's supply chain issues that are whacking the stock. I believe the concern is about waning demand. TER just had a hiccup where demand wasn't as expected. This can happen very quickly in the semi equipment space.

 

Perhaps this time is different. Certainly the industry cycles have mellowed out somewhat, but I don't think they are entirely gone, especially in Semi equipment. Also, the insiders and employees know when the jig is up before any of us do.

 

The general idea is that if everyone has put in huge orders to these suppliers (that seem to all be dropping in price now), and at some point all these orders are filled, everyone suddenly has all the <whatever the suppliers produce>, and the demand drops? Are you staying away from (buying in) this space altogether atm. @Spekulatius?

Posted
1 hour ago, perulv said:

 

The general idea is that if everyone has put in huge orders to these suppliers (that seem to all be dropping in price now), and at some point all these orders are filled, everyone suddenly has all the <whatever the suppliers produce>, and the demand drops? Are you staying away from (buying in) this space altogether atm. @Spekulatius?

Yes, that's the concern in a nutshell. These type of boom busts have occurred with semiconductors and other components many times. I have seen tis personally at work over and over. it happens because purchasing organizations collectively can panic just as much as any individual human can.

 

Just a recent example - the company I work for produces components that get used in medical equipment including respiratory equipment. Guess what, business went gangbusters early in 2020 and volumes went up and up faster than we could deliver until late 2021. Then they went to....zero. Word from the customer is that they have inventory for at least 12 month that they need to burn through.

 

The same thing happens again and again. I do think especially right now with all the supply chain issues, there is a lot of double ordering going on (likely exaggerating the very real underlying issue) in many different parts in manufacturing and supply chains. These are ripples that all come from the COVID-19 shock that hit supply chains at different points in time, depending on products, lead time, raw materials, labor availability. It will take a long time until these ripples have made it through the system, but eventually it will happen.

Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, perulv said:

if everyone has put in huge orders to these suppliers (that seem to all be dropping in price now), and at some point all these orders are filled, everyone suddenly has all the <whatever the suppliers produce>, and the demand drops?

 

Offset in part by services for larger installed base?

Edited by CafeB
Posted

Small position in Ørsted (ORSTED.CO). Not cheap, but less pricy now that everything "green", both crappy and good businesses, have come down in price. Decent fundamentals in an obviously increasing market. 

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