blindsquirrel Posted May 24, 2021 Posted May 24, 2021 https://blindsquirrel.substack.com/p/peloton-the-antidote-to-laziness
rkbabang Posted May 26, 2021 Posted May 26, 2021 On 5/25/2021 at 1:52 AM, lnofeisone said: Bought back ETH and ABNB starter positions. ABNB at $81B still looks rich to me. I want to buy it at under $60B which would be somewhere under $100/sh, I'm hoping I get the chance. ETH is a good buy here I think, but even after selling almost half of mine and the price drop it is still my 2nd biggest holding (BTC is still my largest) so I'm not buying more right now. Just wait and see for crypto for a while, unless it really crashes, at some point I won't be able to help myself.
cubsfan Posted May 27, 2021 Posted May 27, 2021 (edited) GOOGL @ $2375. oops. Edited May 27, 2021 by cubsfan
Gregmal Posted May 27, 2021 Posted May 27, 2021 Bought some CASH for a quick swing trade. Looks primed for a breakout. Also bought some NKLA puts.
fareastwarriors Posted May 27, 2021 Posted May 27, 2021 a bit to BRK.B. No new news, just adding as funds free up.
nwoodman Posted May 29, 2021 Posted May 29, 2021 More USAP. Not difficult to see a decent ramp in aero as things return to post covid normal. Price target simply book of $20+. Operational leverage is the key https://www.thestreet.com/investing/boeing-general-electric-leap-as-airbus-boosts-production-targets
Spekulatius Posted May 29, 2021 Posted May 29, 2021 On 5/26/2021 at 1:48 PM, rkbabang said: ABNB at $81B still looks rich to me. I want to buy it at under $60B which would be somewhere under $100/sh, I'm hoping I get the chance. ETH is a good buy here I think, but even after selling almost half of mine and the price drop it is still my 2nd biggest holding (BTC is still my largest) so I'm not buying more right now. Just wait and see for crypto for a while, unless it really crashes, at some point I won't be able to help myself. I agree that ABNB ‘s valuation looks rich here north of 20x revenues. I can make the math work at the IPO price and maybe a bit more, but the math looks challenging around $120 or more.
bizaro86 Posted May 29, 2021 Posted May 29, 2021 3 hours ago, Spekulatius said: I agree that ABNB ‘s valuation looks rich here north of 20x revenues. I can make the math work at the IPO price and maybe a bit more, but the math looks challenging around $120 or more. It is. I've added some here (offset with a few very far out of the money covered calls) anyway. Every time I've bought a truly great business at an "almost" reasonable price I've been happy I did so. Their multiple is very high, but this is a business with huge growth and huge pricing power. I rent on airbnb and the market there is so much better than their competitors I'd pay 3x what they currently charge me for fees and still feel I was getting good value. I am still disappointed about the IPO allocation. They gave hosts with enough transactions (I would have qualified) access to a $50k allotment at the IPO price. I tried to subscribe but it was US residents only.
Spekulatius Posted May 29, 2021 Posted May 29, 2021 (edited) ABNB certainly has the potential to be a great business, but it hasn’t proven itself yet to generate earnings. I am always amazed by the stuff these IPO‘s are spending on for what seems like pretty mature products/ platforms. I have never used ABNB. This is mostly because the cost is too high - we typically spent just a few days in each location and then when we add it up, the various fees makes using ABNB fairly uneconomic compared to Hotels. We have used VRBO several years ago to rent a skiing lodge NAND two years ago, we rented an apartment in downtown Montreal via Hotel.com that was hosted like ABNB. What I liked about Hotel.com is that the fees were included so you could directly compare it to Hotels vs ABNB tagging all sorts of fees on it after you made your choice ( I suspect they do This buy design and it is not customer friendly at all). ( ABNB rant over). Anyways, i keep my valuation discipline. I watch these new IPO and from time to time, I see some where subsequent drops bring the valuation into a range where it makes sense and then I buy a few shares. I haven’t really seen fat pitches from my perspective, but I have seen some where you don’t need 20 years of 20%+ growth and heroic margin assumption to see value. Edited May 29, 2021 by Spekulatius
cubsfan Posted June 3, 2021 Posted June 3, 2021 On 5/26/2021 at 9:56 AM, cubsfan said: SPLK, Splunk - $121.25 Added on SPLK - $114.00
Spekulatius Posted June 3, 2021 Posted June 3, 2021 3 hours ago, cubsfan said: Added on SPLK - $114.00 I am tracking this one too, as they are getting some traction on the cloud conversion, but how can you justify the out of control SBC? They had about $180M in SBC on ~$500M in revenues so that's ~36%. Those are not old grants either - their quarterly dilution was only ~1.1M shares, so I am guessing they must be handing out new grants a lower strike prices like confetti. No position.
SleepyCapital Posted June 3, 2021 Posted June 3, 2021 I am making an initial and long-term foray into Amazon. Better late than never, I guess!
cubsfan Posted June 4, 2021 Posted June 4, 2021 On 6/3/2021 at 11:59 AM, Spekulatius said: I am tracking this one too, as they are getting some traction on the cloud conversion, but how can you justify the out of control SBC? They had about $180M in SBC on ~$500M in revenues so that's ~36%. Those are not old grants either - their quarterly dilution was only ~1.1M shares, so I am guessing they must be handing out new grants a lower strike prices like confetti. No position. No, it's a great point. The share-based-comp of these hyper-growth software/cloud companies is out of control. Can't justify it, other than it's industry wide and worse for the real high flyers. I'm trying to assemble a few of the really strong cloud services guys into my portfolio. Back in 2012, I held my nose and bought 2000 shares of Service-Now, a company I knew well. Paid $21 at IPO - egregious price. Sold it at around $50 - nosebleed valuation. Now it's $500. Anyway, I picked up PaloAlto a few months ago on a dip. Been waiting for the opportunity to grab Splunk. This licensing/rev rec change is the opportunity for me to do it. Both PANW and SPLK have established their dominance (like NOW) in cloud based security/event management. They have the opportunity to be like CRM and NOW - just dominate in cloud tools and deployment. This whole area is in in infancy. So, yeah, they are pigs, just like the guys at CRM were 15 years ago. It sucks paying up for these hyper growth companies - but I do not expect SPLK's competitive position to deteriorate any time soon. Keep an eye on them. PANW too.
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