Gregmal Posted October 27, 2020 Posted October 27, 2020 modest adds to ESRT, JBGS, DPZ EDIT: also bought a starter in SPNVU
valueinvestor Posted October 27, 2020 Posted October 27, 2020 A few shares in SHOP before earnings - thankfully got it yesterday the mild rise today. Averaging down of SRL and POW
thepupil Posted October 28, 2020 Posted October 28, 2020 Doubled my position in JBGS i feel like i am really in the running for "most COBF dollars destroyed with ideas in 2020" award.
fareastwarriors Posted October 28, 2020 Posted October 28, 2020 Doubled my position in JBGS i feel like i am really in the running for "most COBF dollars destroyed with ideas in 2020" award. Seriously. All my pupil ideas are in the toilet... ;D Added to JBGS and BRK.B...
Gregmal Posted October 28, 2020 Posted October 28, 2020 Doubled my position in JBGS i feel like i am really in the running for "most COBF dollars destroyed with ideas in 2020" award. Dont worry, the more you do it the more used to it you get. Seriously though, you can say theres always risk, but given where these have already fallen to and whats kind of being priced in, I think we've just(today) kind of gotten to a place where there is exhaustion(even many diehards have stopped buying) but on an absolute value basis, you're in a kill zone so to speak. Your initial JBGS write up for instance, in a roundabout way stated "its not the cheapest relative to NAV, but much better positioned". Well, how about 20% lower? That is todays prices. How about another 10-15% off? Same with ESRT and perhaps PGRE...there was talk of "$200 a square foot" or something...how about now? It's plain stupid territory and I can be quite stubborn but at the end of the day I dont care when you look at the profile of some of these. Its not like they're garbage. You're buying world class assets, cashflow, superb balance sheets(maybe not PGRE but I dont think they'll have liquidity issues) and well, in terms of in favor or out of favor....hmmm. I wonder where in the "cycle" we are on that? It often takes extraordinary circumstances to get extraordinary opportunities....well, thats this...The thesis has IMO been confirmed as companies like FB+AMZN still want to be in NYC, SF, DC, etc....this covid thing will pass, at worst over a short-mid duration time period and then from there everything will fall back into order, behaviors and pricing will normalize, and supply and demand will take effect. Long winded way of saying fuck it. Just obviously proceed with caution and realize this could go on a bit longer so make sure you have the capital to "rope a dope" the volatility.
rkbabang Posted October 28, 2020 Posted October 28, 2020 Small position in Netapp (NTAP). Still thinking about INTC, but haven't pulled the trigger yet.
Castanza Posted October 28, 2020 Posted October 28, 2020 Small position in Netapp (NTAP). Still thinking about INTC, but haven't pulled the trigger yet. rb summed up the Intel situation without actually talking about Intel. Somewhere in the Apple thread he said something along these lines. "It's a massive company, with generally solid products and a sticky business that is trading below 10x FCF. So I backed up the truck." Sure, situation isn't apples to apples, and I don't want to speak for rb. But Intel is a massive company that produces competitive products and has solid entrenchment in multiple markets. As Spek said, the latest earnings report was actually pretty good. People love doom and gloom stories. Especially in the tech space. Apple wasn't going out of business and I highly doubt Intel will be out of business anytime soon.
rkbabang Posted October 28, 2020 Posted October 28, 2020 Small position in Netapp (NTAP). Still thinking about INTC, but haven't pulled the trigger yet. rb summed up the Intel situation without actually talking about Intel. Somewhere in the Apple thread he said something along these lines. "It's a massive company, with generally solid products and a sticky business that is trading below 10x FCF. So I backed up the truck." Sure, situation isn't apples to apples, and I don't want to speak for rb. But Intel is a massive company that produces competitive products and has solid entrenchment in multiple markets. As Spek said, the latest earnings report was actually pretty good. People love doom and gloom stories. Especially in the tech space. Apple wasn't going out of business and I highly doubt Intel will be out of business anytime soon. Agreed. I just think that we haven't reached the point of peak-pessimism yet, like AAPL in 2013.
wabuffo Posted October 28, 2020 Posted October 28, 2020 NVEC - small cap ($225m mkt cap). Consistent, after-tax net income margins of 45-55% year-after-year. Dividend yield of 8.5% currently. Nice, safe, boring, little Minnesota tech company. wabuffo
roughlyright Posted October 28, 2020 Posted October 28, 2020 I was buying https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/yearn-finance when its price was $900 on July 18th. Today I have added lot more. It went as high as $42,000. But today I added lot more. One of the best value investments, as it has a price-to-earnings ratio of 3.
Viking Posted October 28, 2020 Posted October 28, 2020 T.to Also own BCE.to and SJR-b.to Canadian Telecom looks reasonably valued; good dividend yields; safe payouts ————- Also buying Canadian $ (selling US$) 7 or 8 years ago i moved 90% of my portfolio from Canadian $ to US$ (when currencies were close to par). It was not a currency trade... simply the result of me finding better opportunities investing in US companies. I have been holding very large cash balances and leaving the cash in US$. Earlier this year i decided to start shifting back to Canadian $ to lock in some very large gains. And i am now finding lots of Canadian stocks to buy (telecom, pipelines) so that is also a factor. Canadian banks also look tempting. Energy as well. Today i am about 55% US$ and 45% CAN$. If we get a Blue wave and spending shoots up we may see US$ weakness moving forward. No idea, really. Just wanted to lock in some nice gains and reduce the currency risk in my portfolio.
rb Posted October 28, 2020 Posted October 28, 2020 Small position in Netapp (NTAP). Still thinking about INTC, but haven't pulled the trigger yet. rb summed up the Intel situation without actually talking about Intel. Somewhere in the Apple thread he said something along these lines. "It's a massive company, with generally solid products and a sticky business that is trading below 10x FCF. So I backed up the truck." Sure, situation isn't apples to apples, and I don't want to speak for rb. But Intel is a massive company that produces competitive products and has solid entrenchment in multiple markets. As Spek said, the latest earnings report was actually pretty good. People love doom and gloom stories. Especially in the tech space. Apple wasn't going out of business and I highly doubt Intel will be out of business anytime soon. Agreed. I just think that we haven't reached the point of peak-pessimism yet, like AAPL in 2013. I was thinking that about AAPL in Dec 2018 not 2013. Now to be fair with you guys I don't have the same level of confidence in INTC as I did in AAPL or MSFT. I think AAPL and MSFT are way more straight forwards businesses so it's easier to make that call. But that may be because there's some tech stuff about micro conductors that I don't understand and not the company's fault. Historically speaking though when it has fallen behind Intel has ruthlessly caught up and then some. They did not care if they incarnated a mountain of money (i.e. one years earnings) but they did it. On the personal side as someone that has owned AMD products I will say this: I will never buy an AMD product ever again in my life. Every time I had an AMD product there was a problem with it. Never had a problem with an Intel product. Maybe things have changed at AMD but I don't care. I don't need the aggravation. When you have problem with a monitor it's clear you have a problem with the monitor. You chuck it out and get a new one. When you have a problem with a CPU you don't know you have a problem with the CPU you just get frustrated by a whole of a lot of stuff that happens to you.
Spekulatius Posted October 28, 2020 Posted October 28, 2020 I agree with RB that INTC vs AAPL is a different situation, but then again no situation is exactly the same. INTC could well go wrong - they never get their process fixed, never decide to make a leap to TSM is that’s the case and get rolled over on the chip design side by Apple, and and NVDIA and the like. This could well happen. However, if INTC works out, I bet earnings and earnings multiple will be higher I could see INTC trading at a 20x earning multiple again, in line with other semiconductor companies. That should yield a very nice return - probably a triple from current prices. As of today, I bought some FAF, MO and added to RTX and some RHM.DE. Topped up NOC and LHX a little too.
rb Posted October 28, 2020 Posted October 28, 2020 Spec, what are your feelings these days about HII and GD? They got beat up pretty good since we last talked about them.
clutch Posted October 28, 2020 Posted October 28, 2020 I see INTC as more analogous to IBM than AAPL. Divesting some of their traditional business while trying to focus on the new up-and-coming business (datacenters for INTC, cloud/AI for IBM). The problem is that INTC does not really have a strong advantage in the new business, much like IBM. Also, the moat is eroding much like IBM. I'd be careful.
rb Posted October 28, 2020 Posted October 28, 2020 I see INTC as more analogous to IBM than AAPL. Divesting some of their traditional business while trying to focus on the new up-and-coming business (datacenters for INTC, cloud/AI for IBM). The problem is that INTC does not really have a strong advantage in the new business, much like IBM. Also, the moat is eroding much like IBM. I'd be careful. I don't think I would go there. INTC doesn't have an advantage in datacenter? INTC basically owns datacenter.
Lance Posted October 29, 2020 Posted October 29, 2020 Added to AMCR, BTI, T, CVX, ENB, ESRT, VNO and WPM Wrote puts on IEP Thanks Lance
clutch Posted October 29, 2020 Posted October 29, 2020 I see INTC as more analogous to IBM than AAPL. Divesting some of their traditional business while trying to focus on the new up-and-coming business (datacenters for INTC, cloud/AI for IBM). The problem is that INTC does not really have a strong advantage in the new business, much like IBM. Also, the moat is eroding much like IBM. I'd be careful. I don't think I would go there. INTC doesn't have an advantage in datacenter? INTC basically owns datacenter. I meant going forward.
ourkid8 Posted October 29, 2020 Posted October 29, 2020 ATCO. I strongly believe the market is not seeing the significant earnings/capital allocation happening in this company. Seaspan has a utilization of 98% and they continue to acquire ships at an ROE of 20%+. On the last earnings call, the CFO guided us that APR's utilization will be low 80's from mid 60's last quarter with the addition of Mexicali. If you also add the efficiencies that Atlas corp is driving in APR, this upcoming quarterly earnings should be pretty strong.
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