Luca Posted October 16, 2023 Share Posted October 16, 2023 Bought more EXOR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dinar Posted October 16, 2023 Share Posted October 16, 2023 MANU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sleepydragon Posted October 16, 2023 Share Posted October 16, 2023 oxy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lnofeisone Posted October 16, 2023 Share Posted October 16, 2023 4 hours ago, Dinar said: MANU Same. Sold some puts and bought some calls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dinar Posted October 16, 2023 Share Posted October 16, 2023 4 minutes ago, lnofeisone said: Same. Sold some puts and bought some calls. That was a better trade than buying stock outright. I should have just sold volatility instead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WayWardCloud Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 Spirit Airlines (SAVE) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stuart D Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, WayWardCloud said: Spirit Airlines (SAVE) Nice. I’m surprised the spread is still so wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WayWardCloud Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 (edited) 36 minutes ago, Stuart D said: Nice. I’m surprised the spread is still so wide. No clue. Great reads about the situation on Yetanothervalueblog, VIC (especially in the comments) and COBF but I haven't found a single bear case which is a bit concerning. We're either collectively missing something huge or we're going to double our money within a few months. Scratching my head a bit over how to size this one. Edited October 17, 2023 by WayWardCloud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lnofeisone Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 42 minutes ago, Stuart D said: Nice. I’m surprised the spread is still so wide. SAVE is an interesting one. I sold a decent amount of 15 puts expiring in Oct (I expect these to expire worthless) and November. I hedged by buying Dec 10 puts. At this point, I don't think there will be a the verdict by 3rd week in November OR we get a deal. In Either case, I expect Nov 15 puts also to expire worthless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
changegonnacome Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 HSW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPO Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 2 hours ago, lnofeisone said: SAVE is an interesting one. I sold a decent amount of 15 puts expiring in Oct (I expect these to expire worthless) and November. I hedged by buying Dec 10 puts. At this point, I don't think there will be a the verdict by 3rd week in November OR we get a deal. In Either case, I expect Nov 15 puts also to expire worthless. I have a smallish position and am thinking about rolling some of my ATVI proceeds here as I like to have one or two merger arb positions at any one time since the risk profile is usually disconnected from general market volatility. I can’t come up with a reasonable market concentration argument for why this shouldn’t go through with the concessions they’ve made. Political pandering risk seems the main reason this gets shot down, meaning the public will generally be against it because SAVE’s unsustainable pricing model will be at risk, so politicians will fall in line with their constituents. The other thing that holds me back on going big here is that I have zero interest in owning this if it doesn’t work out, which wasn’t the case with ATVI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lnofeisone Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 1 hour ago, KPO said: I have a smallish position and am thinking about rolling some of my ATVI proceeds here as I like to have one or two merger arb positions at any one time since the risk profile is usually disconnected from general market volatility. I can’t come up with a reasonable market concentration argument for why this shouldn’t go through with the concessions they’ve made. Political pandering risk seems the main reason this gets shot down, meaning the public will generally be against it because SAVE’s unsustainable pricing model will be at risk, so politicians will fall in line with their constituents. The other thing that holds me back on going big here is that I have zero interest in owning this if it doesn’t work out, which wasn’t the case with ATVI. I agree here, though I have a hard time imagining constituents that use SAVE calling their congressman to impede the merger. I, too, have 0 interest in owning this but the premiums were insane a month ago so I put on a trade. On the "merger working out" side, I also have 2025 25/30 bull spread which I have in my Roth IRA. Incidentally, I used some funds from the sold puts to fund Roth IRA and buy the spread. If it works, out great. If it doesn't, I'm not going to worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 I am just long the 25/30 2025 bull spread. Seemed a good risk reward and a low brain damage way to play the merger arb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 Yea I’ll confess boredom and @Mephistophelesmaking sensible arguments got me into the SAVE situation as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mephistopheles Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 (edited) 17 hours ago, Gregmal said: Yea I’ll confess boredom and @Mephistophelesmaking sensible arguments got me into the SAVE situation as well. Thanks for the shout out! The wide spread is peculiar but we shouldn't assume the market knows all. There have been a number of large spread transactions recently that in hindsight seem obvious. Tenneco dipped to $15 in the summer of '22 with the deal set to close at $20 in the fall. Twitter was in the $30s a few months before closing at $54. SAVE as a standalone assuming pre-COVID margins is a steal. Will business travel return to pre-COVID? It appears to be heading that way. If that happens, things should stabilize. The oligopolistic factors that got Buffett interested a few years ago are still there Of course near term (recession, oil, engine issues) risks remain, but that's always the case. The high leverage is no good so I loaded up on puts, but then was able to make all my money back by selling near term calls. The puts are expensive but am banking on us getting an answer sooner rather than later. From everything I have seen, this judge is a fast decision maker. Edited October 18, 2023 by Mephistopheles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longlake95 Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 trying to buy more Canadian prefs, but can't get filled. hardly any liquidity... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bizaro86 Posted October 19, 2023 Share Posted October 19, 2023 7 hours ago, longlake95 said: trying to buy more Canadian prefs, but can't get filled. hardly any liquidity... I recommend patience and limit orders. Expect to get 200 shares at a time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WayWardCloud Posted October 19, 2023 Share Posted October 19, 2023 Added to Interactive Brokers (IBKR). I liked the Q results but stock went down and hit my reinvesting target price. I had lightened up a couple months ago and now back at a full position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ross812 Posted October 19, 2023 Share Posted October 19, 2023 Bought more LUV. Getting to be a pretty big position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted October 19, 2023 Share Posted October 19, 2023 9 minutes ago, Ross812 said: Bought more LUV. Getting to be a pretty big position. Same here. I also added to DFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saluki Posted October 19, 2023 Share Posted October 19, 2023 Picked up a few JOE shares today when it dipped below $50. I think with one more interest rate hike we may be able to buy in the mid $40s again. I'd add more but I'm using some of my available cash for my"snake swallowing a mouse" tax loss harvesting strategy. I take $10k and put it in a position with the biggest loss (BABA, over -50%) and hold for 30 days, then sell the higher cost basis shares and move that amount the next biggest loss (TV), then keep doing it for the next biggest % loser. I have two more times I can do it before the end of the year for stocks that are down but still want to hold onto. That loss offsets gains, which is great because I feel like a piece of my soul dies every time I pay taxes that I could have legally avoided paying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaygo Posted October 19, 2023 Share Posted October 19, 2023 21 hours ago, longlake95 said: trying to buy more Canadian prefs, but can't get filled. hardly any liquidity... what are you looking at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sleepydragon Posted October 19, 2023 Share Posted October 19, 2023 rolled dice on save Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whensthepaintdry? Posted October 19, 2023 Share Posted October 19, 2023 Is aci spread not attractive enough? It seems like a safer bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sleepydragon Posted October 19, 2023 Share Posted October 19, 2023 16 minutes ago, Whensthepaintdry? said: Is aci spread not attractive enough? It seems like a safer bet. haven't studied it much yet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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