StevieV Posted June 5, 2025 Posted June 5, 2025 On 6/3/2025 at 9:14 PM, SafetyinNumbers said: I’m assuming a lot - they build Guyana and expand Nicaragua by 2028. Run.rate would be about ~180k oz at $1800-2000 margins potentially. I think it’s naive to think there won’t be more deals before then though. If those are accretive then it could be much better than that. It’s a bet on execution and commodity prices to a much lesser extent that seems very mispriced. My core Mako position is about 10% of my net assets. I don’t recommend anyone own any let alone that much but I like the risk reward and can afford to make mistakes. Transactions are clearly part of the plan, so I'd also expect some more deals. I don't think anything in the very near term as they focus on Moss and Guyana, but I haven't listened to Akiba's latest update yet so maybe he says something different there. What about Moss's mine life? 3.5 years and up to 6 if they move infrastructure. Is there reason for concern or optimism about them being able to extend the life of that resource. Nicaragua has always had a short proven runway, but good reasons to think they can continue to explore and find more gold and they now have a good track record of doing so. A lot has gone right or Mako. Gold going from sub-2000 to $3400 today is obviously huge, but so are the two acquisitions. We will see, but I think the Guyana acquisition will work out well. Moss was a really unique transaction that only a very rare company is going to get done. Hopefully shows a competence of deals that they can continue on in the future.
lnofeisone Posted June 5, 2025 Posted June 5, 2025 7 hours ago, Lance said: The 6/13 $11 puts. Thanks Lance Thanks!
SafetyinNumbers Posted June 5, 2025 Posted June 5, 2025 2 hours ago, StevieV said: Transactions are clearly part of the plan, so I'd also expect some more deals. I don't think anything in the very near term as they focus on Moss and Guyana, but I haven't listened to Akiba's latest update yet so maybe he says something different there. What about Moss's mine life? 3.5 years and up to 6 if they move infrastructure. Is there reason for concern or optimism about them being able to extend the life of that resource. Nicaragua has always had a short proven runway, but good reasons to think they can continue to explore and find more gold and they now have a good track record of doing so. A lot has gone right or Mako. Gold going from sub-2000 to $3400 today is obviously huge, but so are the two acquisitions. We will see, but I think the Guyana acquisition will work out well. Moss was a really unique transaction that only a very rare company is going to get done. Hopefully shows a competence of deals that they can continue on in the future. I think there is good reason to believe they can find more resource at Moss. The last operator was constrained by capital and by permitting which explains the short mine life. Mako doesn’t have a capital constraint and permitting should be easier under the new administration.
dipod Posted June 5, 2025 Posted June 5, 2025 16 hours ago, Lance said: The 6/13 $11 puts. Thanks Lance Have also tried writing puts on these in the past. But the premiums are too low compared to other CSP opportunities in the market with less volatility.
lnofeisone Posted June 9, 2025 Posted June 9, 2025 On 6/5/2025 at 3:52 PM, dipod said: Have also tried writing puts on these in the past. But the premiums are too low compared to other CSP opportunities in the market with less volatility. I agree. I used to sell M puts and calls when there was a tad more vol. Right now these options are priced for barely any movement.
backtothebeach Posted June 10, 2025 Posted June 10, 2025 On 6/9/2025 at 9:36 AM, Paarslaars said: KWM Holy cow. Up another 40% today. A MSTR wannabe, right?
Paarslaars Posted June 10, 2025 Posted June 10, 2025 33 minutes ago, backtothebeach said: Holy cow. Up another 40% today. A MSTR wannabe, right? Yeah another copy cat, I'm up 100% in two days... Others I hold (3350 and ALTBG) also hitting ATHs. These small BTC treasuries will do very well during the bull run while MSTR is trying to protect itself for when the bear run comes.
Spekulatius Posted June 10, 2025 Posted June 10, 2025 Bought a starter in $WLY. Betting on improving margins from restructuring and AI licensing benefits.
Jaygo Posted June 11, 2025 Posted June 11, 2025 On 5/28/2025 at 3:24 PM, Jaygo said: Adding to ARC Resources and BRP Sold the BRP for a two week gain of 38% and added to ARC and Tourmaline Still hold BRP / DOO in a taxable but trade the ER's in the TFSA
Junior R Posted June 11, 2025 Posted June 11, 2025 1 hour ago, Jaygo said: Buying an oil basket for a trade XEG and USO did you buy it before the mid day jump in crude lol good gains
Jaygo Posted June 11, 2025 Posted June 11, 2025 27 minutes ago, Junior R said: did you buy it before the mid day jump in crude lol good gains No bought around 1:30 pm, decent gain so far but only a couple percent Basically right before I posted. There are some rumblings in the mid east plus I want to pick up anything off trade moves at the G7
frommi Posted June 12, 2025 Posted June 12, 2025 (edited) EIX,POR,NJR as a basket bet on boring utilities (even though EIX might be a little risky, but i think its well covered) and rates coming down. Also started small positions in NXRT, ADM and BG again. Edited June 12, 2025 by frommi
formthirteen Posted June 12, 2025 Posted June 12, 2025 TW earlier this month. P/E 56.29 is the new minimum P/E for value investors.
Jaygo Posted June 13, 2025 Posted June 13, 2025 On 6/11/2025 at 2:04 PM, Jaygo said: Buying an oil basket for a trade XEG and USO On 6/11/2025 at 4:00 PM, Jaygo said: No bought around 1:30 pm, decent gain so far but only a couple percent Basically right before I posted. There are some rumblings in the mid east plus I want to pick up anything off trade moves at the G7 Closing this USO out today, a really good quick gain but i'm not sure this is the play for oil. I had USD laying around and wanted something quick after the news release of clearing the embassies. Keeping the XEG which is basically a Canadian heavy oil ETF. I think the XEG will have more torque and will really get a bump when (if) the G7 trade deals are announced. These long life oils are a gift to long term thinkers. Obviously better to buy in a deep swoon but ok to hold on for the roller coaster too if bought well. SU currently has an average 10% shareholder return. I can live with that!
Cod Liver Oil Posted June 13, 2025 Posted June 13, 2025 Bought some Exor 80.xx. Elkann has looser reins than Arnault.
Spekulatius Posted June 14, 2025 Posted June 14, 2025 (edited) I also had a bit out for Exor but it was a tad too low. I bought some techie stuff at the Friday close - ACVA (wholesale car marketplace) and GTLB. GTLB is a starter and ACVA is an add (I bought a position during the last downdraft and eased up a bit). I like the operational leverage with ACVA and it’s sort of a Carvana derivative albeit a much cleaner business model . GTLB seems to be a market leading development platform benefiting from AI and it seems the stock price decline was a bit disproportionate to the moderate reduction in the revenue forecast. Both have high SBC. I also mentioned WLY a while ago (starter) where I see a large opportunity for margin improvement and topline growth from AI licensing. Edited June 14, 2025 by Spekulatius
Marco Van Basten Posted June 14, 2025 Posted June 14, 2025 1 hour ago, Spekulatius said: I also had a bit out for Exor but it was a tad too low. I bought some techie stuff at the Friday close - ACVA (wholesale car marketplace) and GTLB. GTLB is a starter and ACVA is an add (I bought a position during the last downdraft and eased up a bit). I like the operational leverage with ACVA and it’s sort of a Carvana derivative albeit a much cleaner business model . GTLB seems to be a market leading development platform benefiting from AI and it seems the stock price decline was a bit disproportionate to the moderate reduction in the revenue forecast. Both have high SBC. I also mentioned WYL a while ago (starter) where I see a large opportunity for margin improvement and topline growth from AI licensing. Do you know why the short thesis in GTLB so high (8.4%)? What is WYL? (I cannot seem to find it.) Thank you.
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